145 resultados para Backtesting, Risk exposure

em Biblioteca Digital da Produção Intelectual da Universidade de São Paulo (BDPI/USP)


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The purpose of this study is to analyze the Controllership relevance as support risk management in non-financial companies. Risk management is a widely discussed and disseminated subject amongst financial institutions. It is obvious that economic uncertainties and, consequently, prevention and. control must also exist in non-financial companies. To enable managers to take safe-decisions, it is essential for them to be able to count on instrumental support that provides timely and adequate information, to ensure lower levels of mistakes and risk exposure. However, discussion concerning risk management in non-financial companies is still in its early stages in Brazil. Considering this gap, this study aims at assessing how Controllership has been acting in? companies under the insight of risk and how it can contribute to risk management in non-financial companies. To achieve the proposed goal, a field research was. carried-out with non-financial companies that are located in the city Sao Paulo and listed in the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange (Bovespa). The research was carried out using questionnaires, which were sent do Risk Officers and Controllers of those companies with the purpose of evaluating their perception on the subject. The results,of the research allow us to conclude that Controllership offers support to risk management, through information that contributes to the mitigation of the risks in non-financial companies.

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Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infects 170 million people worldwide, and is a major public health problem in Brazil, where over 1% of the population may be infected and where multiple viral genotypes co-circulate. Chronically infected individuals are both the source of transmission to others and are at risk for HCV-related diseases, such as liver cancer and cirrhosis. Before the adoption of anti-HCV control measures in blood banks, this virus was mainly transmitted via blood transfusion. Today, needle sharing among injecting drug users is the most common form of HCV transmission. Of particular importance is that HCV prevalence is growing in non-risk groups. Since there is no vaccine against HCV, it is important to determine the factors that control viral transmission in order to develop more efficient control measures. However, despite the health costs associated with HCV, the factors that determine the spread of virus at the epidemiological scale are often poorly understood. Here, we sequenced partial NS5b gene sequences sampled from blood samples collected from 591 patients in Sao Paulo state, Brazil. We show that different viral genotypes entered Sao Paulo at different times, grew at different rates, and are associated with different age groups and risk behaviors. In particular, subtype 1b is older and grew more slowly than subtypes 1a and 3a, and is associated with multiple age classes. In contrast, subtypes 1a and 3b are associated with younger people infected more recently, possibly with higher rates of sexual transmission. The transmission dynamics of HCV in Sao Paulo therefore vary by subtype and are determined by a combination of age, risk exposure and underlying social network. We conclude that social factors may play a key role in determining the rate and pattern of HCV spread, and should influence future intervention policies.

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OBJECTIVE: To analyze household risk factors associated with high lead levels in surface dental enamel. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted with 160 Brazilian adolescents aged 14-18 years living in poor neighborhoods in the city of Bauru, southeastern Brazil, from August to December 2008. Body lead concentrations were assessed in surface dental enamel acid-etch microbiopsies. Dental enamel lead levels were measured by graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry and phosphorus levels were measured by inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry. The parents answered a questionnaire about their children's potential early (05 years old) exposure to well-known lead sources. Logistic regression was used to identify associations between dental enamel lead levels and each environmental risk factor studied. Social and familial covariables were included in the models. RESULTS: The results suggest that the adolescents studied were exposed to lead sources during their first years of life. Risk factors associated with high dental enamel lead levels were living in or close to a contaminated area (OR = 4.49; 95% CI: 1.69;11.97); and member of the household worked in the manufacturing of paints, paint pigments, ceramics or batteries (OR = 3.43; 95% CI: 1.31;9.00). Home-based use of lead-glazed ceramics, low-quality pirated toys, anticorrosive paint on gates and/or sale of used car batteries (OR = 1.31; 95% CI: 0.56;3.03) and smoking (OR = 1.66; 95% CI: 0.52;5.28) were not found to be associated with high dental enamel lead levels. CONCLUSIONS: Surface dental enamel can be used as a marker of past environmental exposure to lead and lead concentrations detected are associated to well-known sources of lead contamination.

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Although cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption increase risk for head and neck cancers, there have been few attempts to model risks quantitatively and to formally evaluate cancer site-specific risks. The authors pooled data from 15 case-control studies and modeled the excess odds ratio (EOR) to assess risk by total exposure (pack-years and drink-years) and its modification by exposure rate (cigarettes/day and drinks/day). The smoking analysis included 1,761 laryngeal, 2,453 pharyngeal, and 1,990 oral cavity cancers, and the alcohol analysis included 2,551 laryngeal, 3,693 pharyngeal, and 3,116 oval cavity cancers, with over 8,000 controls. Above 15 cigarettes/day, the EOR/pack-year decreased with increasing cigarettes/day, suggesting that greater cigarettes/day for a shorter duration was less deleterious than fewer cigarettes/day for a longer duration. Estimates of EOR/pack-year were homogeneous across sites, while the effects of cigarettes/day varied, indicating that the greater laryngeal cancer risk derived from differential cigarettes/day effects and not pack-years. EOR/drink-year estimates increased through 10 drinks/day, suggesting that greater drinks/day for a shorter duration was more deleterious than fewer drinks/day for a longer duration. Above 10 drinks/day, data were limited. EOR/drink-year estimates varied by site, while drinks/day effects were homogeneous, indicating that the greater pharyngeal/oral cavity cancer risk with alcohol consumption derived from the differential effects of drink-years and not drinks/day.

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Degenerative aortic valve disease (DAVD), a common finding in the elderly, is associated with an increased risk of death due to cardiovascular causes. Taking advantage of its longitudinal design, this study evaluates the prevalence of DAVD and its temporal associations with long-term exposure to cardiovascular risk factors in the general population. We studied 953 subjects (aged 25-74 years) from a random sample of German residents. Risk factors had been determined at a baseline investigation in 1994/95. At a follow-up investigation, 10 years later, standardized echocardiography determined aortic valve morphology and aortic valve area (AVA) as well as left ventricular geometry and function. At the follow-up study, the overall prevalence of DAVD was 28%. In logistic regression models adjusting for traditional cardiovascular risk factors at baseline age (OR 2.0 [1.7-2.3] per 10 years, P < 0.001), active smoking (OR 1.7 [1.1-2.4], P = 0.009) and elevated total cholesterol levels (OR 1.2 [1.1-1.3] per increase of 20 mg/dL, P < 0.001) were significantly related to DAVD at follow-up. Furthermore, age, baseline status of smoking, and total cholesterol level were significant predictors of a smaller AVA at follow-up study. In contrast, hypertension and obesity had no detectable relationship with long-term changes of aortic valve structure. In the general population we observed a high prevalence of DAVD that is associated with long-term exposure to elevated cholesterol levels and active smoking. These findings strengthen the notion that smoking cessation and cholesterol lowering are promising treatment targets for prevention of DAVD.

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Background. Recent studies have sought to describe HIV infection and transmission characteristics around the world. Identification of early HIV-1 infection is essential to proper surveillance and description of regional transmission trends. In this study we compare people recently infected (RI) with HIV-1, as defined by Serologic Testing Algorithm for Recent HIV Seroconversion (STARHS), to those with chronic infection. Methodology/Principal Findings Subjects were identified from 2002-2004 at four testing sites in São Paulo. Of 485 HIV-1-positive subjects, 57 (12%) were defined as RI. Of the participants, 165 (34.0%) were aware of their serostatus at the time of HIV-1 testing. This proportion was statistically larger (p<0.001) among the individuals without recent infection (n = 158, 95.8%) compared to 7 individuals (4.2%) with recently acquired HIV-1 infection. In the univariate analysis, RI was more frequent in <25 and >59 years-old age strata (p<0.001). The majority of study participants were male (78.4%), 25 to 45 years-old (65.8%), white (63.2%), single (61.7%), with family income of four or more times the minimum wage (41.0%), but with an equally distributed educational level. Of those individuals infected with HIV-1, the predominant route of infection was sexual contact (89.4%), with both hetero (47.5%) and homosexual (34.5%) exposure. Regarding sexual activity in these individuals, 43.9% reported possible HIV-1 exposure through a seropositive partner, and 49.4% reported multiple partners, with 47% having 2 to 10 partners and 37.4% 11 or more; 53.4% of infected individuals reported condom use sometimes; 34.2% reported non-injecting, recreational drug use and 23.6% were reactive for syphilis by VDRL. Subjects younger than 25 years of age were most vulnerable according to the multivariate analysis. ) Conclusions/Significance In this study, we evaluated RI individuals and discovered that HIV-1 has been spreading among younger individuals in São Paulo and preventive approaches should, therefore, target this age stratum

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Background: Environmental factors may influence the development of allergen sensitization and asthma. The aim of this study was to evaluate the role of endotoxin and allergen exposure in early life as a risk factor for recurrent wheezing. Methods: One hundred and four infants from low-income families, at high risk of asthma, were enrolled at birth. Dust samples were collected from the bedding and bedroom floor within 6 months after birth. Recurrent wheezing was defined as 3 or more wheezing episodes in the past year. Endotoxin was determined by Limulus amebocyte lysate assay, and major indoor allergens were quantitated by ELISA in dust extracts. IgE antibodies were measured by ImmunoCAP at 30 months of age. Results: At 30 months, 51 of the 99 infants who completed the study (51.5 per cent) had recurrent wheezing. Respiratory infection was strongly associated with recurrent wheezing (OR 6.67, 95 per cent CI 1.96-22.72), whereas exclusive breastfeeding for at least 1 month was a protective factor (OR 0.09, 95 per cent CI 0.01-0.51). Exposure to high levels of mouse allergen was more frequent among non-recurrent wheezers, approaching significance (OR 0.12, 95 per cent CI 0.01-1.13; p = 0.064). None of the children were sensitized to mouse. Sensitization to mite was found in 26/90 (28.8 per cent) children, with no association with recurrent wheezing. Conclusion: Respiratory infection was strongly associated with recurrent wheezing in the first 30 months of life, in children at high risk of asthma, living in a socially deprived community in Brazil

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Background: In a number of malaria endemic regions, tourists and travellers face a declining risk of travel associated malaria, in part due to successful malaria control. Many millions of visitors to these regions are recommended, via national and international policy, to use chemoprophylaxis which has a well recognized morbidity profile. To evaluate whether current malaria chemo-prophylactic policy for travellers is cost effective when adjusted for endemic transmission risk and duration of exposure. a framework, based on partial cost-benefit analysis was used Methods: Using a three component model combining a probability component, a cost component and a malaria risk component, the study estimated health costs avoided through use of chemoprophylaxis and costs of disease prevention (including adverse events and pre-travel advice for visits to five popular high and low malaria endemic regions) and malaria transmission risk using imported malaria cases and numbers of travellers to malarious countries. By calculating the minimal threshold malaria risk below which the economic costs of chemoprophylaxis are greater than the avoided health costs we were able to identify the point at which chemoprophylaxis would be economically rational. Results: The threshold incidence at which malaria chemoprophylaxis policy becomes cost effective for UK travellers is an accumulated risk of 1.13% assuming a given set of cost parameters. The period a travellers need to remain exposed to achieve this accumulated risk varied from 30 to more than 365 days, depending on the regions intensity of malaria transmission. Conclusions: The cost-benefit analysis identified that chemoprophylaxis use was not a cost-effective policy for travellers to Thailand or the Amazon region of Brazil, but was cost-effective for travel to West Africa and for those staying longer than 45 days in India and Indonesia.

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Background: Malaria is an important threat to travelers visiting endemic regions. The risk of acquiring malaria is complex and a number of factors including transmission intensity, duration of exposure, season of the year and use of chemoprophylaxis have to be taken into account estimating risk. Materials and methods: A mathematical model was developed to estimate the risk of non-immune individual acquiring falciparum malaria when traveling to the Amazon region of Brazil. The risk of malaria infection to travelers was calculated as a function of duration of exposure and season of arrival. Results: The results suggest significant variation of risk for non-immune travelers depending on arrival season, duration of the visit and transmission intensity. The calculated risk for visitors staying longer than 4 months during peak transmission was 0.5% per visit. Conclusions: Risk estimates based on mathematical modeling based on accurate data can be a valuable tool in assessing risk/benefits and cost/benefits when deciding on the value of interventions for travelers to malaria endemic regions.

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Background Associations between aplastic anemia and numerous drugs, pesticides and chemicals have been reported. However, at least 50% of the etiology of aplastic anemia remains unexplained. Design and Methods This was a case-control, multicenter, multinational study, designed to identify risk factors for agranulocytosis and aplastic anemia. The cases were patients with diagnosis of aplastic anemia confirmed through biopsy or bone marrow aspiration, selected through an active search of clinical laboratories, hematology clinics and medical records. The controls did not have either aplastic anemia or chronic diseases. A total of 224 patients with aplastic anemia were included in the study, each case was paired with four controls, according to sex, age group, and hospital where the case was first seen. Information was collected on demographic data, medical history, laboratory tests, medications, and other potential risk factors prior to diagnosis. Results The incidence of aplastic anemia was 1.6 cases per million per year. Higher rates of benzene exposure (>= 30 exposures per year) were associated with a greater risk of aplastic anemia (odds ratio, OR: 4.2; 95% confidence interval, CI: 1.82-9.82). Individuals exposed to chloramphenicol in the previous year had an adjusted OR for aplastic anemia of 8.7 (CI: 0.87-87.93) and those exposed to azithromycin had an adjusted OR of 11.02 (CI 1.14-108.02). Conclusions The incidence of aplastic anemia in Latin America countries is low. Although the research study centers had a high coverage of health services, the underreporting of cases of aplastic anemia in selected regions can be discussed. Frequent exposure to benzene-based products increases the risk for aplastic anemia. Few associations with specific drugs were found, and it is likely that some of these were due to chance alone.

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Background A higher burden of head and neck cancer has been reported to affect deprived populations. This study assessed the association between socioeconomic status and head and neck cancer, aiming to explore how this association is related to differences of tobacco and alcohol consumption across socioeconomic strata. Methods We conducted a case-control study in Sao Paulo, Brazil (1998-2006), including 1017 incident cases of oral, pharyngeal and laryngeal cancer, and 951 sex- and age-matched controls. Education and occupation were distal determinants in the hierarchical approach; cumulative exposure to tobacco and alcohol were proximal risk factors. Outcomes of the hierarchical model were compared with fully adjusted ORs. Results Individuals with lower education (OR 2.27; 95% CI 1.61 to 3.19) and those performing manual labour (OR 1.55; 95% CI 1.26 to 1.92) had a higher risk of disease. However, 54% of the association with lower education and 45% of the association with manual labour were explained by proximal lifestyle exposures, and socioeconomic status remained significantly associated with disease when adjusted for smoking and alcohol consumption. Conclusions Socioeconomic differences in head and neck cancer are partially attributable to the distribution of tobacco smoking and alcohol consumption across socioeconomic strata. Additional mediating factors may explain the remaining variation of socioeconomic status on head and neck cancer.

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Background. Recent studies have sought to describe HIV infection and transmission characteristics around the world. Identification of early HIV-1 infection is essential to proper surveillance and description of regional transmission trends. In this study we compare people recently infected (RI) with HIV-1, as defined by Serologic Testing Algorithm for Recent HIV Seroconversion (STARHS), to those with chronic infection. Methodology/Principal Findings. Subjects were identified from 2002-2004 at four testing sites in Sao Paulo. Of 485 HIV-1-positive subjects, 57 (12%) were defined as RI. Of the participants, 165 (34.0%) were aware of their serostatus at the time of HIV-1 testing. This proportion was statistically larger (p<0.001) among the individuals without recent infection (n = 158, 95.8%) compared to 7 individuals (4.2%) with recently acquired HIV-1 infection. In the univariate analysis, RI was more frequent in,25 and >59 years-old age strata (p < 0.001). The majority of study participants were male (78.4%), 25 to 45 years-old (65.8%), white (63.2%), single (61.7%), with family income of four or more times the minimum wage (41.0%), but with an equally distributed educational level. Of those individuals infected with HIV-1, the predominant route of infection was sexual contact (89.4%), with both hetero (47.5%) and homosexual (34.5%) exposure. Regarding sexual activity in these individuals, 43.9% reported possible HIV-1 exposure through a seropositive partner, and 49.4% reported multiple partners, with 47% having 2 to 10 partners and 37.4% 11 or more; 53.4% of infected individuals reported condom use sometimes; 34.2% reported non-injecting, recreational drug use and 23.6% were reactive for syphilis by VDRL. Subjects younger than 25 years of age were most vulnerable according to the multivariate analysis. Conclusions/Significance. In this study, we evaluated RI individuals and discovered that HIV-1 has been spreading among younger individuals in Sao Paulo and preventive approaches should, therefore, target this age stratum.

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Some studies have recently suggested that mercury (Hg)-exposed populations face increased risks of cardiovascular diseases, and experimental data indicate that such risks might be due to reductions in nitric oxide bioavailability. However, no previous study has examined whether Hg exposure affects plasma nitrite concentrations in humans as an indication of nitric oxide production. Here, we investigated whether there is an association between circulating nitrite and Hg concentrations in whole blood, plasma and hair from an exposed methylmercury (MeHg) population. Hair and blood samples were collected from 238 persons exposed to MeHg from fish consumption. Hg concentrations in plasma (PHg), whole blood (BHg) and hair Hg (HHg) were determined by inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry. Mean BHg content was 49.8 +/- 35.2 mu g/l, mean PHg was 7.8 +/- 6.9 mu g/l and HHg 14.6 +/- 10.6 mu g/g. Mean plasma nitrite concentration was 253.2 +/- 105.5 nM. No association was found between plasma nitrite concentration and BHg or HHg concentrations in a univariate model. However, multiple regression models adjusted for gender, age and fish consumption showed a significant association between plasma nitrite and plasma Hg concentration (beta = -0.1, p < 0.001). Our findings constitute preliminary clinical evidence that exposure to MeHg may cause inhibitory effects on the production of endothelial nitric oxide.

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In this study, we examined the effects of low levels and sub-chronic exposure to methylmercury (MeHg) on butyrylcholinesterase (BuChE) activity in rats. Moreover, we examined the relationship between BuChE activity and oxidative stress biomarkers [delta-aminolevulinic acid dehydratase (delta-ALA-D) and malondialdehyde levels (MDA)] in the same animals. Rats were separated into three groups (eight animals per group): (Group I) received water by gavage; (Group II) received MeHg (30 mu g/kg/day) by gavage; (Group III) received MeHg (100 mu g/kg/day). The time of exposure was 90 days. BuChE and ALA-D activities were measured in serum and blood, respectively; whereas MDA levels were measured in plasma. We found BuChE and ALA-D activities decreased in groups II and III compared to the control group. Moreover, we found an interesting negative correlation between plasmatic BuChE activity and MDA (r = -0.85; p < 0.01) and a positive correlation between plasmatic BuChE activity and ALA-D activities (r = 0.78; p < 0.01), thus suggesting a possible relationship between oxidative damage promoted by MeHg exposure and the decrease of BuChE activity. In conclusion, long-term exposure to low doses of MeHg decreases plasmatic BuChE activity. Moreover, the decrease in the enzyme is strongly correlated with the oxidative stress promoted by the metal exposure. This preliminary finding highlights a possible mechanism for MeHg to reduce BuChE activity in plasma. Additionally, this enzyme could be an auxiliary biomarker on the evaluation of MeHg exposure.

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Increased risk of hypertension after methylmercury (MeHg) exposure has been suggested. However, the underlying mechanisms are not well explored. In this paper, we have analyzed whether sub-chronic exposure to MeHg increases systolic blood pressure even at very low levels. In addition, we analyzed if the methylmercury-induced hypertension is associated with a decreased plasmatic nitric oxide levels and with a dysregulation of the activities of the antioxidant enzymes superoxide dismutase (SOD) and catalase (CAT), as well as the levels of MDA and glutathione. For this study, Wistar rats were treated with methylmercury chloride (100 mu g/kg per day) or vehicle. Total treatment time was 100 days. Malondialdehyde (MDA) and circulating NOx levels and superoxide dismutase (SOD) and catalase (CAT) activities were determined in plasma, whereas glutathione levels were determined in erythrocytes. Our results show that long-term treatment at a low level of MeHg affected systolic blood pressure, increasing and reducing the levels of plasmatic MDA and NOx, respectively. However, the activity of SOD did not decrease in the MeHg exposed group when compared to the control. We found a negative correlation between plasmatic nitrite/nitrate (NOx) levels and systolic blood pressure (r = -0.67; P = 0.001), and a positive correlation between MDA and systolic blood pressure (r = 0.61; P = 0.03), thus suggesting increased inhibition of NO formation with the increase of hypertension. In conclusion, long-term exposure to a low dose of MeHg increases the systolic pressure and is associated, at least in part, with increased production of ROS as judged by increased production of malondialdehyde and depressed NO availability.