Log-modified Weibull regression models with censored data: Sensitivity and residual analysis

This paper proposes a regression model considering the modified Weibull distribution. This distribution can be used to model bathtub-shaped failure rate functions. Assuming censored data, we consider maximum likelihood and Jackknife estimators for the parameters of the model. We derive the appropriate matrices for assessing local influence on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes and we also present some ways to perform global influence. Besides, for different parameter settings, sample sizes and censoring percentages, various simulations are performed and the empirical distribution of the modified deviance residual is displayed and compared with the standard normal distribution. These studies suggest that the residual analysis usually performed in normal linear regression models can be straightforwardly extended for a martingale-type residual in log-modified Weibull regression models with censored data. Finally, we analyze a real data set under log-modified Weibull regression models. A diagnostic analysis and a model checking based on the modified deviance residual are performed to select appropriate models. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A logic-based agent that plans for extended reachability goals

Planning to reach a goal is an essential capability for rational agents. In general, a goal specifies a condition to be achieved at the end of the plan execution. In this article, we introduce nondeterministic planning for extended reachability goals (i.e., goals that also specify a condition to be preserved during the plan execution). We show that, when this kind of goal is considered, the temporal logic CTL turns out to be inadequate to formalize plan synthesis and plan validation algorithms. This is mainly due to the fact that the CTL`s semantics cannot discern among the various actions that produce state transitions. To overcome this limitation, we propose a new temporal logic called alpha-CTL. Then, based on this new logic, we implement a planner capable of synthesizing reliable plans for extended reachability goals, as a side effect of model checking.

Deviance residuals in generalised log-gamma regression models with censored observations

In this article, we compare three residuals based on the deviance component in generalised log-gamma regression models with censored observations. For different parameter settings, sample sizes and censoring percentages, various simulation studies are performed and the empirical distribution of each residual is displayed and compared with the standard normal distribution. For all cases studied, the empirical distributions of the proposed residuals are in general symmetric around zero, but only a martingale-type residual presented negligible kurtosis for the majority of the cases studied. These studies suggest that the residual analysis usually performed in normal linear regression models can be straightforwardly extended for the martingale-type residual in generalised log-gamma regression models with censored data. A lifetime data set is analysed under log-gamma regression models and a model checking based on the martingale-type residual is performed.

A new class of survival regression models with heavy-tailed errors: robustness and diagnostics

Birnbaum-Saunders models have largely been applied in material fatigue studies and reliability analyses to relate the total time until failure with some type of cumulative damage. In many problems related to the medical field, such as chronic cardiac diseases and different types of cancer, a cumulative damage caused by several risk factors might cause some degradation that leads to a fatigue process. In these cases, BS models can be suitable for describing the propagation lifetime. However, since the cumulative damage is assumed to be normally distributed in the BS distribution, the parameter estimates from this model can be sensitive to outlying observations. In order to attenuate this influence, we present in this paper BS models, in which a Student-t distribution is assumed to explain the cumulative damage. In particular, we show that the maximum likelihood estimates of the Student-t log-BS models attribute smaller weights to outlying observations, which produce robust parameter estimates. Also, some inferential results are presented. In addition, based on local influence and deviance component and martingale-type residuals, a diagnostics analysis is derived. Finally, a motivating example from the medical field is analyzed using log-BS regression models. Since the parameter estimates appear to be very sensitive to outlying and influential observations, the Student-t log-BS regression model should attenuate such influences. The model checking methodologies developed in this paper are used to compare the fitted models.

Simple analytic model for astrophysical S factors

We propose a physically transparent analytic model of astrophysical S factors as a function of a center-of-mass energy E of colliding nuclei (below and above the Coulomb barrier) for nonresonant fusion reactions. For any given reaction, the S(E) model contains four parameters [two of which approximate the barrier potential, U(r)]. They are easily interpolated along many reactions involving isotopes of the same elements; they give accurate practical expressions for S(E) with only several input parameters for many reactions. The model reproduces the suppression of S(E) at low energies (of astrophysical importance) due to the shape of the low-r wing of U(r). The model can be used to reconstruct U(r) from computed or measured S(E). For illustration, we parametrize our recent calculations of S(E) (using the Sao Paulo potential and the barrier penetration formalism) for 946 reactions involving stable and unstable isotopes of C, O, Ne, and Mg (with nine parameters for all reactions involving many isotopes of the same elements, e. g., C+O). In addition, we analyze astrophysically important (12)C+(12)C reaction, compare theoretical models with experimental data, and discuss the problem of interpolating reliably known S(E) values to low energies (E less than or similar to 2-3 MeV).

An electromechanical finite element model for piezoelectric energy harvester plates

Vibration-based energy harvesting has been investigated by several researchers over the last decade. The goal in this research field is to power small electronic components by converting the waste vibration energy available in their environment into electrical energy. Recent literature shows that piezoelectric transduction has received the most attention for vibration-to-electricity conversion. In practice, cantilevered beams and plates with piezoceramic layers are employed as piezoelectric energy harvesters. The existing piezoelectric energy harvester models are beam-type lumped parameter, approximate distributed parameter and analytical distributed parameter solutions. However, aspect ratios of piezoelectric energy harvesters in several cases are plate-like and predicting the power output to general (symmetric and asymmetric) excitations requires a plate-type formulation which has not been covered in the energy harvesting literature. In this paper. an electromechanically coupled finite element (FE) plate model is presented for predicting the electrical power output of piezoelectric energy harvester plates. Generalized Hamilton`s principle for electroelastic bodies is reviewed and the FE model is derived based on the Kirchhoff plate assumptions as typical piezoelectric energy harvesters are thin structures. Presence of conductive electrodes is taken into account in the FE model. The predictions of the FE model are verified against the analytical solution for a unimorph cantilever and then against the experimental and analytical results of a bimorph cantilever with a tip mass reported in the literature. Finally, an optimization problem is solved where the aluminum wing spar of an unmanned air vehicle (UAV) is modified to obtain a generator spar by embedding piezoceramics for the maximum electrical power without exceeding a prescribed mass addition limit. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A transient three-dimensional heat transfer model of the human body

The objective of this work is to develop an improved model of the human thermal system. The features included are important to solve real problems: 3D heat conduction, the use of elliptical cylinders to adequately approximate body geometry, the careful representation of tissues and important organs, and the flexibility of the computational implementation. Focus is on the passive system, which is composed by 15 cylindrical elements and it includes heat transfer between large arteries and veins. The results of thermal neutrality and transient simulations are in excellent agreement with experimental data, indicating that the model represents adequately the behavior of the human thermal system. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hypervolemia induces and potentiates lung damage after recruitment maneuver in a model of sepsis-induced acute lung injury

Introduction: Recruitment maneuvers (RMs) seem to be more effective in extrapulmonary acute lung injury (ALI), caused mainly by sepsis, than in pulmonary ALI. Nevertheless, the maintenance of adequate volemic status is particularly challenging in sepsis. Since the interaction between volemic status and RMs is not well established, we investigated the effects of RMs on lung and distal organs in the presence of hypovolemia, normovolemia, and hypervolemia in a model of extrapulmonary lung injury induced by sepsis. Methods: ALI was induced by cecal ligation and puncture surgery in 66 Wistar rats. After 48 h, animals were anesthetized, mechanically ventilated and randomly assigned to 3 volemic status (n = 22/group): 1) hypovolemia induced by blood drainage at mean arterial pressure (MAP)approximate to 70 mmHg; 2) normovolemia (MAP approximate to 100 mmHg), and 3) hypervolemia with colloid administration to achieve a MAP approximate to 130 mmHg. In each group, animals were further randomized to be recruited (CPAP = 40 cm H(2)O for 40 s) or not (NR) (n = 11/group), followed by 1 h of protective mechanical ventilation. Echocardiography, arterial blood gases, static lung elastance (Est, L), histology (light and electron microscopy), lung wet-to-dry (W/D) ratio, interleukin (IL)-6, IL-1 beta, caspase-3, type III procollagen (PCIII), intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (ICAM-1), and vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 (VCAM-1) mRNA expressions in lung tissue, as well as lung and distal organ epithelial cell apoptosis were analyzed. Results: We observed that: 1) hypervolemia increased lung W/D ratio with impairment of oxygenation and Est, L, and was associated with alveolar and endothelial cell damage and increased IL-6, VCAM-1, and ICAM-1 mRNA expressions; and 2) RM reduced alveolar collapse independent of volemic status. In hypervolemic animals, RM improved oxygenation above the levels observed with the use of positive-end expiratory pressure (PEEP), but increased lung injury and led to higher inflammatory and fibrogenetic responses. Conclusions: Volemic status should be taken into account during RMs, since in this sepsis-induced ALI model hypervolemia promoted and potentiated lung injury compared to hypo-and normovolemia.

A modified rat model of neonatal anoxia: Development and evaluation by pulseoximetry, arterial gasometry and Fos immunoreactivity

Neonatal anoxia is a worldwide clinical problem that has serious and lasting consequences. The diversity of models does not allow complete reproducibility, so a standardized model is needed. In this study, we developed a rat model of neonatal anoxia that utilizes a semi-hermetic system suitable for oxygen deprivation. The validity of this model was confirmed using pulse oximetry, arterial gasometry, observation of skin color and behavior and analysis of Fos immunoreactivity in brain regions that function in respiratory control. For these experiments, 87 male albino neonate rats (Rattus norvegicus, lineage Wistar) aged approximate 30 postnatal hours were divided into anoxia and control groups. The pups were kept in an euthanasia polycarbonate chamber at 36 +/- 1 degrees C, with continuous 100% nitrogen gas flow at 3 L/min and 101.7 kPa for 25 min. The peripheral arterial oxygen saturation of the anoxia group decreased 75% from its initial value. Decreased pH and partial pressure of oxygen and increased partial pressure of carbon dioxide were observed in this group, indicating metabolic acidosis, hypoxia and hypercapnia. respectively. Analysis of neuronal activation showed Fos immunoreactivity in the solitary tract nucleus, the lateral reticular nucleus and the area postrema, confirming that those conditions activated areas related to respiratory control in the nervous system. Therefore, the proposed model of neonatal anoxia allows standardization and precise control of the anoxic condition, which should be of great value in indentifying both the mechanisms underlying neonatal anoxia and novel therapeutic strategies to combat or prevent this widespread public health problem. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Approximate solution of the autocatalytic hydrolysis of cellulose

Depolymerization of cellulose in homogeneous acidic medium is analyzed on the basis of autocatalytic model of hydrolysis with a positive feedback of acid production from the degraded biopolymer. The normalized number of scissions per cellulose chain, S(t)/nA degrees A = 1 - C(t)/C(0), follows a sigmoid behavior with reaction time t, and the cellulose concentration C(t) decreases exponentially with a linear and cubic time dependence, C(t) = C(0)exp[-at - bt (3)], where a and b are model parameters easier determined from data analysis.

Validation of an experimental polyurethane model for biomechanical studies on implant supported prosthesis - tension tests

OBJECTIVES: The complexity and heterogeneity of human bone, as well as ethical issues, frequently hinder the development of clinical trials. The purpose of this in vitro study was to determine the modulus of elasticity of a polyurethane isotropic experimental model via tension tests, comparing the results to those reported in the literature for mandibular bone, in order to validate the use of such a model in lieu of mandibular bone in biomechanical studies. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Forty-five polyurethane test specimens were divided into 3 groups of 15 specimens each, according to the ratio (A/B) of polyurethane reagents (PU-1: 1/0.5, PU-2: 1/1, PU-3: 1/1.5). RESULTS: Tension tests were performed in each experimental group and the modulus of elasticity values found were 192.98 MPa (SD=57.20) for PU-1, 347.90 MPa (SD=109.54) for PU-2 and 304.64 MPa (SD=25.48) for PU-3. CONCLUSION: The concentration of choice for building the experimental model was 1/1.

Validation of an experimental polyurethane model for biomechanical studies on implant-supported prosthesis: compression tests

OBJECTIVES: The complexity and heterogeneity of human bone, as well as ethical issues, most always hinder the performance of clinical trials. Thus, in vitro studies become an important source of information for the understanding of biomechanical events on implant-supported prostheses, although study results cannot be considered reliable unless validation studies are conducted. The purpose of this work was to validate an artificial experimental model based on its modulus of elasticity, to simulate the performance of human bone in vivo in biomechanical studies of implant-supported prostheses. MATERIAL AND METHODS: In this study, fast-curing polyurethane (F16 polyurethane, Axson) was used to build 40 specimens that were divided into five groups. The following reagent ratios (part A/part B) were used: Group A (0.5/1.0), Group B (0.8/1.0), Group C (1.0/1.0), Group D (1.2/1.0), and Group E (1.5/1.0). A universal testing machine (Kratos model K - 2000 MP) was used to measure modulus of elasticity values by compression. RESULTS: Mean modulus of elasticity values were: Group A - 389.72 MPa, Group B - 529.19 MPa, Group C - 571.11 MPa, Group D - 470.35 MPa, Group E - 437.36 MPa. CONCLUSION: The best mechanical characteristics and modulus of elasticity value comparable to that of human trabecular bone were obtained when A/B ratio was 1:1.

Lesion of the subthalamic nucleus reverses motor deficits but not death of nigrostriatal dopaminergic neurons in a rat 6-hydroxydopamine-lesion model of Parkinson's disease

The objective of the present study was to determine whether lesion of the subthalamic nucleus (STN) promoted by N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) would rescue nigrostriatal dopaminergic neurons after unilateral 6-hydroxydopamine (6-OHDA) injection into the medial forebrain bundle (MFB). Initially, 16 mg 6-OHDA (6-OHDA group) or vehicle (artificial cerebrospinal fluid - aCSF; Sham group) was infused into the right MFB of adult male Wistar rats. Fifteen days after surgery, the 6-OHDA and SHAM groups were randomly subdivided and received ipsilateral injection of either 60 mM NMDA or aCSF in the right STN. Additionally, a control group was not submitted to stereotaxic surgery. Five groups of rats were studied: 6-OHDA/NMDA, 6-OHDA/Sham, Sham/NMDA, Sham/Sham, and Control. Fourteen days after injection of 6-OHDA, rats were submitted to the rotational test induced by apomorphine (0.1 mg/kg, ip) and to the open-field test. The same tests were performed again 14 days after NMDA-induced lesion of the STN. The STN lesion reduced the contralateral turns induced by apomorphine and blocked the progression of motor impairment in the open-field test in 6-OHDA-treated rats. However, lesion of the STN did not prevent the reduction of striatal concentrations of dopamine and metabolites or the number of nigrostriatal dopaminergic neurons after 6-OHDA lesion. Therefore, STN lesion is able to reverse motor deficits after severe 6-OHDA-induced lesion of the nigrostriatal pathway, but does not protect or rescue dopaminergic neurons in the substantia nigra pars compacta.

Viability of using enamel and dentin from bovine origin as a substitute for human counterparts in an intraoral erosion model

This study ascertained whether under dental erosion models that closely mimics the real-life situation enamel and root dentin from bovine origin would be reliable substitutes for human counterparts. Through a 2x2 crossover design, in a first trial, 14 volunteers wore a palatal device containing slabs of bovine and human enamel. Half of the participants ingested (4x daily, for 10 days) orange juice first, crossing over to mineral water, while the remainder received the reverse sequence. In a second trial, volunteers wore devices with slabs of bovine and human root dentin. Except for the duration of each intraoral phase, which lasted 2 rather 10 days, the experiment with root dentin run exactly as for enamel. Dental substrates were analyzed for surface microhardness. Two-way ANOVAs (α=0.05) indicated no difference between the microhardness values recorded for human and bovine enamel (p=0.1350), but bovine root dentin had lower microhardness compared to its human counterpart (p=0.0432). While bovine enamel can reliably substitute its human counterpart in in situ dental erosion models, bovine root dentin does not seem to be a viable alternative to the corresponding human tissue.

An experimental model for the study of craniofacial deformities

PURPOSE: To develop an experimental surgical model in rats for the study of craniofacial abnormalities. METHODS: Full thickness calvarial defects with 10x10-mm and 5x8-mm dimensions were created in 40 male NIS Wistar rats, body weight ranging from 320 to 420 g. The animals were equally divided into two groups. The periosteum was removed and dura mater was left intact. Animals were killed at 8 and 16 weeks postoperatively and cranial tissue samples were taken from the defects for histological analysis. RESULTS: Cranial defects remained open even after 16 weeks postoperatively. CONCLUSION: The experimental model with 5x8-mm defects in the parietal region with the removal of the periosteum and maintenance of the integrity of the dura mater are critical and might be used for the study of cranial bone defects in craniofacial abnormalities.