3 resultados para Analyse de sensibilité

em Biblioteca Digital da Produção Intelectual da Universidade de São Paulo (BDPI/USP)


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The dynamical processes that lead to open cluster disruption cause its mass to decrease. To investigate such processes from the observational point of view, it is important to identify open cluster remnants (OCRs), which are intrinsically poorly populated. Due to their nature, distinguishing them from field star fluctuations is still an unresolved issue. In this work, we developed a statistical diagnostic tool to distinguish poorly populated star concentrations from background field fluctuations. We use 2MASS photometry to explore one of the conditions required for a stellar group to be a physical group: to produce distinct sequences in a colour-magnitude diagram (CMD). We use automated tools to (i) derive the limiting radius; (ii) decontaminate the field and assign membership probabilities; (iii) fit isochrones; and (iv) compare object and field CMDs, considering the isochrone solution, in order to verify the similarity. If the object cannot be statistically considered as a field fluctuation, we derive its probable age, distance modulus, reddening and uncertainties in a self-consistent way. As a test, we apply the tool to open clusters and comparison fields. Finally, we study the OCR candidates DoDz 6, NGC 272, ESO 435 SC48 and ESO 325 SC15. The tool is optimized to treat these low-statistic objects and to separate the best OCR candidates for studies on kinematics and chemical composition. The study of the possible OCRs will certainly provide a deep understanding of OCR properties and constraints for theoretical models, including insights into the evolution of open clusters and dissolution rates.

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In this paper we make use of some stochastic volatility models to analyse the behaviour of a weekly ozone average measurements series. The models considered here have been used previously in problems related to financial time series. Two models are considered and their parameters are estimated using a Bayesian approach based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Both models are applied to the data provided by the monitoring network of the Metropolitan Area of Mexico City. The selection of the best model for that specific data set is performed using the Deviance Information Criterion and the Conditional Predictive Ordinate method.

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Various significant anti-HCV and cytotoxic sesquiterpene lactones (SLs) have been characterized. In this work, the chemometric tool Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was applied to two sets of SLs and the variance of the biological activity was explored. The first principal component accounts for as much of the variability in the data as possible, and each succeeding component accounts for as much of the remaining variability as possible. The calculations were performed using VolSurf program. For anti-HCV activity, PC1 (First Principal Component) explained 30.3% and PC2 (Second Principal Component) explained 26.5% of matrix total variance, while for cytotoxic activity, PC1 explained 30.9% and PC2 explained 15.6% of the total variance. The formalism employed generated good exploratory and predictive results and we identified some structural features, for both sets, important to the suitable biological activity and pharmacokinetic profile.