A hybrid commodity price-forecasting model applied to the sugar-alcohol sector

Accurate price forecasting for agricultural commodities can have significant decision-making implications for suppliers, especially those of biofuels, where the agriculture and energy sectors intersect. Environmental pressures and high oil prices affect demand for biofuels and have reignited the discussion about effects on food prices. Suppliers in the sugar-alcohol sector need to decide the ideal proportion of ethanol and sugar to optimise their financial strategy. Prices can be affected by exogenous factors, such as exchange rates and interest rates, as well as non-observable variables like the convenience yield, which is related to supply shortages. The literature generally uses two approaches: artificial neural networks (ANNs), which are recognised as being in the forefront of exogenous-variable analysis, and stochastic models such as the Kalman filter, which is able to account for non-observable variables. This article proposes a hybrid model for forecasting the prices of agricultural commodities that is built upon both approaches and is applied to forecast the price of sugar. The Kalman filter considers the structure of the stochastic process that describes the evolution of prices. Neural networks allow variables that can impact asset prices in an indirect, nonlinear way, what cannot be incorporated easily into traditional econometric models.

COMPETITION AMONG EUCALYPTUS TREES DEPENDS ON GENETIC VARIATION AND RESOURCE SUPPLY

Genetic variation and environmental heterogeneity fundamentally shape the interactions between plants of the same species. According to the resource partitioning hypothesis, competition between neighbors intensifies as their similarity increases. Such competition may change in response to increasing supplies of limiting resources. We tested the resource partitioning hypothesis in stands of genetically identical (clone-origin) and genetically diverse (seed-origin) Eucalyptus trees with different water and nutrient supplies, using individual-based tree growth models. We found that genetic variation greatly reduced competitive interactions between neighboring trees, supporting the resource partitioning hypothesis. The importance of genetic variation for Eucalyptus growth patterns depended strongly on local stand structure and focal tree size. This suggests that spatial and temporal variation in the strength of species interactions leads to reversals in the growth rank of seed-origin and clone-origin trees. This study is one of the first to experimentally test the resource partitioning hypothesis for intergenotypic vs. intragenotypic interactions in trees. We provide evidence that variation at the level of genes, and not just species, is functionally important for driving individual and community-level processes in forested ecosystems.

Chronic Diseases: Chronic Diseases and Development 2 Health, agricultural, and economic effects of adoption of healthy diet recommendations

Transition to diets that are high in saturated fat and sugar has caused a global public health concern as the pattern of food consumption is a mayor modifiable risk factor for chronic non-communicable diseases Although agri food systems are intimately associated with this transition, agriculture and health sectors are largely disconnected in their priorities policy, and analysis with neither side considering the complex inter relation between agri trade patterns of food consumption health, and development We show the importance of connection of these perspectives through estimation of the effect of adopting a healthy diet on population health, agricultural production trade the economy and livelihoods, with a computable general equilibrium approach On the basis of case studies from the UK and Brazil we suggest that benefits of a healthy diet policy will vary substantially between different populations, not only because of population dietary intake but also because of agricultural production trade and other economic factors

A costs structure analysis of the Brazilian sugar and ethanol companies

The Brazil consolidated itself as the largest world producer of sugarcane, sugar and ethanol. The creation of the Programa Nacional do Alcool - PROALCOOL and the growing use of cars with flexible motors were some of the factors that helped to motivate still more the production. Evolutions in the agricultural and industrial research did the Brazilian competitiveness in sugar and ethanol globally elevated, what is evidenced when comparing the amount produced at the country and the production costs, which turned a big one differential. Therefore, the administration of costs is of great relevance to the sugar and ethanol companies, for representing a significant rationalization in the production processes, with economy of resources and the reach of better earnings, besides reducing the operational risk pertinent at the fixed costs of production. Thus, the present work has for objective to analyze the costs structure of sugar and ethanol companies of the Center-south area of the country through an empiric-analytical study based in methodologies and concepts extracted of the costs accounting. It is verified that great part of the costs and operational expenses have variable behavior, a positive factor for the sector reducing the operational risk of the activity. The main restraint of this study is the sample of five years and 10% of the number of plants in Brazil that although they represent 30% of the national production, don`t allow the generalization of the model.

Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome, Central Plateau, Southeastern, and Southern Brazil

Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) is an increasing health problem in Brazil because of encroachment of sprawling urban, agricultural, and cattle-raising areas into habitats of subfamily Sigmodontinae rodents, which serve as hantavirus reservoirs. From 1993 through June 2007, a total of 884 cases of HIPS were reported in Brazil (case-fatality rate 39%). To better understand this emerging disease, we collected 89 human serum samples and 68 rodent lung samples containing antibodies to hantavirus from a 2,500-km-wide area in Brazil. RNA was isolated from human samples and rodent lung tissues and subjected to reverse transcription-PCR. Partial sequences of nucleocapsid protein and glycoprotein genes from 22 human and 16 rodent sources indicated only Araraquara virus and Juquitiba virus lineages. The case-fatality rate of HPS was higher in the area with Araraquara virus. This virus, which may be the most virulent hantavirus in Brazil, was associated with areas that have had greater anthropogenic changes.

Comparison of univariate and multivariate calibration for the determination of micronutrients in pellets of plant materials by laser induced breakdown spectrometry

The application of laser induced breakdown spectrometry (LIBS) aiming the direct analysis of plant materials is a great challenge that still needs efforts for its development and validation. In this way, a series of experimental approaches has been carried out in order to show that LIBS can be used as an alternative method to wet acid digestions based methods for analysis of agricultural and environmental samples. The large amount of information provided by LIBS spectra for these complex samples increases the difficulties for selecting the most appropriated wavelengths for each analyte. Some applications have suggested that improvements in both accuracy and precision can be achieved by the application of multivariate calibration in LIBS data when compared to the univariate regression developed with line emission intensities. In the present work, the performance of univariate and multivariate calibration, based on partial least squares regression (PLSR), was compared for analysis of pellets of plant materials made from an appropriate mixture of cryogenically ground samples with cellulose as the binding agent. The development of a specific PLSR model for each analyte and the selection of spectral regions containing only lines of the analyte of interest were the best conditions for the analysis. In this particular application, these models showed a similar performance. but PLSR seemed to be more robust due to a lower occurrence of outliers in comparison to the univariate method. Data suggests that efforts dealing with sample presentation and fitness of standards for LIBS analysis must be done in order to fulfill the boundary conditions for matrix independent development and validation. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Rural and Urban Streams: Anthropogenic Influences and Impacts on Water and Sediment Quality

The Pirapo river watershed (Parana State, Brazil) compounds a relatively industrialized and urbanized region, undergoing great pressure from the discharge of industrial, agricultural and domestic wastes. We evaluated the environmental quality of ten streams belonging to this watershed in April and June 2008 by performing acute and chronic toxicity tests with Daphnia similis and Ceriodaphnia silvestrii from water and sediment samples. We tested the hypothesis that the streams located in urban areas are more exposed to the influence of pollutants, than those outside the city limits. In addition, we obtained the measures of physical and chemical parameters, and identified the main polluted sources. Contrary to what was expected, the rural streams were more toxic than those located in urban area. These results demonstrate that the water bodies located in rural areas are being affected by the pollution of aquatic ecosystems as far as those found in urban areas, requiring the same attention of environmental managers in relation to its monitoring.

Production and carbon allocation in a clonal Eucalyptus plantation with water and nutrient manipulations

We examined resource limitations on growth and carbon allocation in a fast-growing, clonal plantation of Eucalyptus grandis x urophylla in Brazil by characterizing responses to annual rainfall, and response to irrigation and fertililization for 2 years. Productivity measures included gross primary production (GPP), total belowground carbon allocation (TBCA), bole growth, and net ecosystem production (NEP). Replicate plots within a single plantation were established at the midpoint of the rotation (end of year 3), with treatments of no additional fertilization or irrigation, heavy fertilization (to remove any nutrient limitation), irrigation (to remove any water limitation), and irrigation plus fertilization. Rainfall was unusually high in the first year (1769mm) of the experiment, and control plots had high rates of GPP (6.64 kg C m(-2) year(-1)), TBCA (2.14 kg C m(-2) year(-1)), and bole growth (1.81 kg C m(-2) year). Irrigation increased each of these rates by 15-17%. The second year of the experiment had average rainfall (1210 mm), and lower rainfall decreased production in control plots by 46% (GPP), 52% (TBCA), and 40% (bole growth). Fertilization treatments had neglible effects. The response to irrigation was much greater in the drier year, with irrigated plots exceeding the production in control plots by 83% (GPP), 239% (TBCA), and 24% (bole growth). Even though the rate of irrigation ensured no water limitation to tree growth, the high rainfall year showed higher production in irrigated plots for both GPP (38% greater than in drier year) and bole growth (23% greater). Varying humidity and supplies of water led to a range in NEP of 0.8-2.7 kg C m(-2) year. This difference between control and irrigated treatments, combined with differences between drier and wetter years, indicated a strong response of these Eucalyptus trees to both water supply and atmospheric humidity during the dry season. The efficiency of converting light energy into fixed carbon ranged from a low of 0.027 mol C to a high of 0.060 mol C per mol of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (APAR), and the efficiency of bolewood production ranged from 0.78 to 1.98 g wood per MJ of APAR. Irrigation increased the efficiency of wood production per unit of water used from 2.55 kg wood m(-3) in the rainfed plot to 3.51 kg m(-3) in irrigated plots. Detailed information on the response of C budgets to environmental conditions and resource supplies will be necessary for accurate predictions of plantation yields across years and landscapes. (V) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Purification and Characterization of a Trypsin Inhibitor from Plathymenia foliolosa Seeds

A novel trypsin inhibitor (PFTI) was isolated from Plathymenia foliolosa (Benth.) seeds by gel filtration chromatography on a Sephadex G-100, DEAE-Sepharose, and trypsin-Sepharose columns. By SDS-PAGE, PFTI yielded a single band with a M(r) of 19 kDa. PFTI inhibited bovine trypsin and bovine chymotrypsin with equilibrium dissociation constants (K(i)) of 4 x 10(-8) and 1.4 x 10(-6) M, respectively. PFTI retained more than 50% of activity at up to 50 degrees C for 30 min, but there were 80 and 100% losses of activity at 60 and 70 degrees C, respectively. DTT affected the activity or stability of PFTI. The N-terminal amino acid sequence of PFTI showed a high degree of homology with various members of the Kunitz family of inhibitors. Anagasta kuehniella is found worldwide; this insect attacks stored grains and products of rice, oat, rye, corn, and wheat. The velvet bean caterpillar (Anticarsia gemmatalis) is considered the main defoliator pest of soybean in Brazil. Diatraea saccharalis, the sugar cane borer, is the major pest of sugar cane crops, and its caterpillar-feeding behavior, inside the stems, hampers control. PFTI showed significant inhibitory activity against trypsin-like proteases present in the larval midguts on A. kuehniella and D. saccharalis and could suppress the growth of larvae.

Chemical Composition and Antioxidant/Antidiabetic Potential of Brazilian Native Fruits and Commercial Frozen Pulps

Foods provide essential and bioactive compounds with health-promoting properties such as antioxidant, anti-inflammatory, and hypocholesterolemic activities, which have been related to vitamins A, C, and E and phenolic compounds such as flavonoids. Therefore, the aim of this work was to identify potential sources of bioactive compounds through the determination of flavonoids and ellagic acid contents and the in vitro antioxidant capacity and alpha-glucosidase and alpha-amylase inhibitory activities of Brazilian native fruits and commercial frozen pulps. Camu-camu, cambuci, uxi, and tucuma and commercial frozen pulps of cambuci, cagaita, coquinho azedo, and araca presented the highest antioxidant capacities. Cambuci and cagaita exhibited the highest alpha-glucosidase and alpha-amylase inhibitory activities. Quercetin and kaempferol derivatives were the main flavonoids present in most of the samples. Ellagic acid was detected only in umbu, camu-camu, cagaita, araca, and cambuci. According to the results, native Brazilian fruits can be considered as excellent sources of bioactive compounds.

Isoflavones and Antioxidant Capacity of Commercial Soy-Based Beverages: Effect of Storage

Samples of 11 different brands of commercially available soy-based beverages (n = 65), including products made from soy protein isolate (SPI) and soy milk, mixed with fruit juice and/or flavoring, were analyzed for their isoflavone content and in vitro antioxidant activity. There was a large variation in isoflavone and total phenolics contents ranging from 0.7 to 13 mg of isoflavones/200 mL and from 6 to 155 mg equivalents of catechin/200 mL, respectively. The antioxidant activity also varied significantly among products. Storage of the beverages at room temperature caused a significant decrease of antioxidant capacity, soluble phenolics, and isoflavone contents after 9 months. When soybeans used for beverage production were stored for up to 6 months in silos, the resulting products were not affected. However, a decrease of malonyl and a proportional increase of free glucosidic forms of isoflavones were observed after storage of both the raw material and the beverages.

Effect of Different Cooking Conditions on Phenolic Compounds and Antioxidant Capacity of Some Selected Brazilian Bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) Cultivars

The effects of different cooking conditions such as soaking, atmospheric (100 degrees C) or pressure boiling (121 degrees C), and draining of cooking water following thermal treatment on phenolic compounds and the DPPH radical scavenging capacity from two selected Brazilian bean cultivars (black and yellow-brown seed coat color) were investigated using a factorial design (2(3)). Factors that significantly reduced the total phenolic contents and antioxidant capacity in both cultivars were the soaking and draining stage. Independent of cooking temperature, total phenolics and antioxidant capacities were enhanced in treatments without soaking and where cooking water was not discarded, and this was likely linked to an increase of specific phenolic compounds detected by high performance liquid chromatography such as flavonols and free phenolic acids in both cultivars. Cooking of beans either at 100 or 121 degrees C, without a soaking stage and keeping the cooking water, would be recommendable for retaining antioxidant phenolic compounds.

Chlorophyll Degradation and Formation of Colorless Chlorophyll Derivatives during Soybean (Glycine max L. Merill) Seed Maturation

The natural chlorophyll degradation results in noncolored chlorophyll catabolites (NCCs), but there are controversies if these are the final products. The formation and degradation of NCCs during soybean seed (Glycine max L. Merrill) maturation and two drying temperatures were investigated. Soybean was harvested at six maturation stages. The effect of postharvest drying at 40 and 60 degrees C on the NCC formation was analyzed by high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC), and results were expressed as areas under the curve. All samples contained fractions with an absorption maximum at 320 nm, typical for NCC. The amounts of NCC increased until 114 days after planting and were significantly lower in advanced maturation stages. These results indicate that the NCC in soybeans might not be the final products of chlorophyll degradation. Their reduction in advanced maturation stages may be due to further metabolization. Heating soybeans at 40 and 60 degrees C promoted unnatural chlorophyll degradation and impaired the formation of NCC.

Antioxidant Status in Humans after Consumption of Blackberry (Rubus fruticosus L.) Juices With and Without Defatted Milk

The present study was designed to evaluate the possible effect of the consumption of blackberry juices (BJ) prepared with water (BJW) and defatted milk (BJM) on the plasma antioxidant capacity and the. enzymatic and nonenzymatic antioxidants. A significant (p < 0.05) increase in the ascorbic acid content in the plasma was observed after intake of both BJs. However, no changes were observed in the plasma urate and a-tocopherol levels. An increase on the plasma antioxidant capacity, by ORAC assay, was observed only after consumption of BJW but not statistically significant. Plasma antioxidant capacity had a good positive correlation with ascorbic acid (r = 0.93) and a negative correlation with urate level (r = -0.79). No correlation was observed between antioxidant capacity and total cyanidin or total ellagic acid contents. Further, it was observed that plasma catalase increased following intake of BJ`s. No change was observed on the plasma and erythrocyte CAT and glutathione peroxidase activities. A significant decrease (p < 0.05) in the urinary antioxidant capacity between 1 and 4 h after intake of both BJs was observed. A good correlation was observed between total antioxidant capacity and urate and total cyanidin levels. These results suggested association between anthocyanin levels and CAT and a good correlation between antioxidant capacity and ascorbic acid in the human plasma after intake of BJs. Follow-up studies investigating the antioxidant properties and health benefits are necessary to demonstrate the health benefits of polyphenols.

Functionality of bioactive compounds in Brazilian strawberry (Fragaria x ananassa Duch.) cultivars: Evaluation of hyperglycemia and hypertension potential using in vitro models

Fruits of seven fully ripened strawberry cultivars grown in Brazil (Dover, Camp Dover, Camarosa, Sweet Charlie, Toyonoka, Oso Grande, and Piedade) were evaluated for total phenolics, antioxidant activity based on DPPH radical scavenging assay, and functionality such as inhibition of alpha-amylase, alpha-glucosidase, and angiotensin I-converting enzyme (ACE) relevant for potentially managing hyperglycemia and hypertension. The total phenolics content ranged from 966 to 1571 mu g of gallic acid/g of fruit fresh weight for Toyonoka and Dover, respectively. No correlation was found between total phenolics and antioxidant activity. The major phenolic compounds in aqueous extracts of strawberries were ellagic acid, quercetin, and chlorogenic acid. Strawberries had high alpha-glucosidase inhibitory activity. However, alpha-amylase inhibitory activity was very low in all cultivars. This suggested that strawberries could be considered as a potential dietary source with anti-hyperglycemic potential. The evaluated cultivars had no significant ACE inhibitory activity, reflecting low anti-hypertensive potential.