Forward-looking versus recursive-dynamic modeling in climate policy analysis: A comparison

This paper develops a multi-regional general equilibrium model for climate policy analysis based on the latest version of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. We develop two versions so that we can solve the model either as a fully inter-temporal optimization problem (forward-looking, perfect foresight) or recursively. The standard EPPA model on which these models are based is solved recursively, and it is necessary to simplify some aspects of it to make inter-temporal solution possible. The forward-looking capability allows one to better address economic and policy issues such as borrowing and banking of GHG allowances, efficiency implications of environmental tax recycling, endogenous depletion of fossil resources, international capital flows, and optimal emissions abatement paths among others. To evaluate the solution approaches, we benchmark each version to the same macroeconomic path, and then compare the behavior of the two versions under a climate policy that restricts greenhouse gas emissions. We find that the energy sector and CO(2) price behavior are similar in both versions (in the recursive version of the model we force the inter-temporal theoretical efficiency result that abatement through time should be allocated such that the CO(2) price rises at the interest rate.) The main difference that arises is that the macroeconomic costs are substantially lower in the forward-looking version of the model, since it allows consumption shifting as an additional avenue of adjustment to the policy. On the other hand, the simplifications required for solving the model as an optimization problem, such as dropping the full vintaging of the capital stock and fewer explicit technological options, likely have effects on the results. Moreover, inter-temporal optimization with perfect foresight poorly represents the real economy where agents face high levels of uncertainty that likely lead to higher costs than if they knew the future with certainty. We conclude that while the forward-looking model has value for some problems, the recursive model produces similar behavior in the energy sector and provides greater flexibility in the details of the system that can be represented. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Thermodynamic and kinetic investigations of phosphate adsorption onto hydrous niobium oxide prepared by homogeneous solution method

The adsorption kinetics of phosphate onto Nb(2)O(5)center dot nH(2)O was investigated at initial phosphate concentrations 10 and 50 mg L(-1). The kinetic process was described by a pseudo second-order rate model very well. The adsorption thermodynamics was carried out at 298, 308, 318, 328 and 338 K. The positive values of both Delta H and Delta S suggest an endothermic reaction and increase in randomness at the solid-liquid interface during the adsorption. Delta G values obtained were negative indicating a spontaneous adsorption process. The Langmuir model described the data better than the Freundlich isotherm model. The peak appearing at 1050 cm(-1) in IR spectra after adsorption was attributed to the bending vibration of adsorbed phosphate. The effective desorption could be achieved using water at pH 12. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dynamic behavior analysis of drill-threading process when machining AISI Al-Si-Cu(4) alloy

Conventional threading operations involve two distinct machining processes: drilling and threading. Therefore, it is time consuming for the tools must be changed and the workpiece has to be moved to another machine. This paper presents an analysis of the combined process (drilling followed by threading) using a single tool for both operations: the tap-milling tool. Before presenting the methodology used to evaluate this hybrid tool, the ODS (operating deflection shapes) basics is shortly described. ODS and finite element modeling (FEM) were used during this research to optimize the process aiming to achieve higher stable machining conditions and increasing the tool life. Both methods allowed the determination of the natural frequencies and displacements of the machining center and optimize the workpiece fixture system. The results showed that there is an excellent correlation between the dynamic stability of the machining center-tool holder and the tool life, avoiding a tool premature catastrophic failure. Nevertheless, evidence showed that the tool is very sensitive to work conditions. Undoubtedly, the use of ODS and FEM eliminate empiric decisions concerning the optimization of machining conditions and increase drastically the tool life. After the ODS and FEM studies, it was possible to optimize the process and work material fixture system and machine more than 30,000 threaded holes without reaching the tool life limit and catastrophic fail.

Refined sandwich model for the vibration of beams with embedded shear piezoelectric actuators and sensors

This work extends a previously presented refined sandwich beam finite element (FE) model to vibration analysis, including dynamic piezoelectric actuation and sensing. The mechanical model is a refinement of the classical sandwich theory (CST), for which the core is modelled with a third-order shear deformation theory (TSDT). The FE model is developed considering, through the beam length, electrically: constant voltage for piezoelectric layers and quadratic third-order variable of the electric potential in the core, while meclianically: linear axial displacement, quadratic bending rotation of the core and cubic transverse displacement of the sandwich beam. Despite the refinement of mechanical and electric behaviours of the piezoelectric core, the model leads to the same number of degrees of freedom as the previous CST one due to a two-step static condensation of the internal dof (bending rotation and core electric potential third-order variable). The results obtained with the proposed FE model are compared to available numerical, analytical and experimental ones. Results confirm that the TSDT and the induced cubic electric potential yield an extra stiffness to the sandwich beam. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dynamic susceptibility investigation of maghemite nanoparticles incorporated in bovine serum albumin template

Room-temperature measurements of the magnetic susceptibility of Bovine Serum Albumin-based nanocapsules (50 to 300 nm in size) loaded with different amounts of maghemite nanoparticles (7.6 nm average diameter) have been carried out in this study The field (H) dependence of the imaginary peak susceptibility (f(P)) of the nanocomposite samples was investigated in the range of 0 to 4 kOe. From the analysis of the f(P) x H curves the concentration (N) dependence of the effective maghemite magnetocrystalline energy barrier (E) was obtained. Analysis of the E x N data was performed using a modified Morup-Tronc [Phys. Rev. Lett. 72, 3278 (1994)] model, from which a huge contribution from the magnetocrystalline surface anisotropy was observed.

Modeling study of the aspect ratio influence on urban canopy energy fluxes with a modified wall-canyon energy budget scheme

The influence of the aspect ratio (building height/street canyon width) and the mean building height of cities on local energy fluxes and temperatures is studied by means of an Urban Canopy Model (UCM) coupled with a one-dimensional second-order turbulence closure model. The UCM presented is similar to the Town Energy Balance (TEB) model in most of its features but differs in a few important aspects. In particular, the street canyon walls are treated separately which leads to a different budget of radiation within the street canyon walls. The UCM has been calibrated using observations of incoming global and diffuse solar radiation, incoming long-wave radiation and air temperature at a site in So Paulo, Brazil. Sensitivity studies with various aspect ratios have been performed to assess their impact on urban temperatures and energy fluxes at the top of the canopy layer. In these simulations, it is assumed that the anthropogenic heat flux and latent heat fluxes are negligible. Results show that the simulated net radiation and sensible heat fluxes at the top of the canopy decrease and the stored heat increases as the aspect ratio increases. The simulated air temperature follows the behavior of the sensible heat flux. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of a heavy metal sorption system through the P=S functionalization of coconut (Cocos nucifera) fibers

Lignocellulosic residues are interesting materials for the production of heavy metal adsorbents for aquatic systems. Whole fibers taken from coconut (Cocos nucifera) husks were functionalized with the thiophosphoryl (P=S) group by means of the direct reaction with CI(3)P=S, (CH(3)O)(2)CIP=S or (CH(3)CH(2)O)(2)CIP=S in order to obtain an adsorptive system for `soft` metal ions, particularly Cd(2+). These functionalized fibers (FFs) were characterized by means of elemental analysis, infrared spectroscopy, thermal analysis and acid-base titration. Adsorption isotherms for Cd(2+) fitted the Langmuir model, with binding capacities of 0.2-5 mmol g(-1) of FF at 25 degrees C. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An experimental model for the study of craniofacial deformities

PURPOSE: To develop an experimental surgical model in rats for the study of craniofacial abnormalities. METHODS: Full thickness calvarial defects with 10x10-mm and 5x8-mm dimensions were created in 40 male NIS Wistar rats, body weight ranging from 320 to 420 g. The animals were equally divided into two groups. The periosteum was removed and dura mater was left intact. Animals were killed at 8 and 16 weeks postoperatively and cranial tissue samples were taken from the defects for histological analysis. RESULTS: Cranial defects remained open even after 16 weeks postoperatively. CONCLUSION: The experimental model with 5x8-mm defects in the parietal region with the removal of the periosteum and maintenance of the integrity of the dura mater are critical and might be used for the study of cranial bone defects in craniofacial abnormalities.

Parametric model for the analysis of concrete expansion due to alkali-aggregate reaction

The alkali-aggregate reaction (AAR) is a chemical reaction that provokes a heterogeneous expansion of concrete and reduces important properties such as Young's modulus, leading to a reduction in the structure's useful life. In this study, a parametric model is employed to determine the spatial distribution of the concrete expansion, combining normalized factors that influence the reaction through an AAR expansion law. Optimization techniques were employed to adjust the numerical results and observations in a real structure. A three-dimensional version of the model has been implemented in a finite element commercial package (ANSYS(C)) and verified in the analysis of an accelerated mortar test. Comparisons were made between two AAR mathematical descriptions for the mechanical phenomenon, using the same methodology, and an expansion curve obtained from experiment. Some parametric studies are also presented. The numerical results compared very well with the experimental data validating the proposed method.

Elastic Maier-Saupe-Zwanzig model and some properties of nematic elastomers

We introduce a simple mean-field lattice model to describe the behavior of nematic elastomers. This model combines the Maier-Saupe-Zwanzig approach to liquid crystals and an extension to lattice systems of the Warner-Terentjev theory of elasticity, with the addition of quenched random fields. We use standard techniques of statistical mechanics to obtain analytic solutions for the full range of parameters. Among other results, we show the existence of a stress-strain coexistence curve below a freezing temperature, analogous to the P-V diagram of a simple fluid, with the disorder strength playing the role of temperature. Below a critical value of disorder, the tie lines in this diagram resemble the experimental stress-strain plateau and may be interpreted as signatures of the characteristic polydomain-monodomain transition. Also, in the monodomain case, we show that random fields may soften the first-order transition between nematic and isotropic phases, provided the samples are formed in the nematic state.

An opinion dynamics model for the diffusion of innovations

We study the dynamics of the adoption of new products by agents with continuous opinions and discrete actions (CODA). The model is such that the refusal in adopting a new idea or product is increasingly weighted by neighbor agents as evidence against the product. Under these rules, we study the distribution of adoption times and the final proportion of adopters in the population. We compare the cases where initial adopters are clustered to the case where they are randomly scattered around the social network and investigate small world effects on the final proportion of adopters. The model predicts a fat tailed distribution for late adopters which is verified by empirical data. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Referential Model for Small Companies of Development Software

This paper presents the proposal for a reference model for developing software aimed at small companies. Despite the importance of that represent the small software companies in Latin America, the fact of not having its own standards, and able to meet their specific, has created serious difficulties in improving their process and also in quality certification. In this sense and as a contribution to better understanding of the subject they propose a reference model and as a means to validate the proposal, presents a report of its application in a small Brazilian company, committed to certification of the quality model MPS.BR.

Application of lumped dissipation model in nonlinear analysis of reinforced concrete structures

This paper deals with the application of the lumped dissipation model in the analysis of reinforced concrete structures, emphasizing the nonlinear behaviour of the materials The presented model is based on the original models developed by Cipollina and Florez-Lopez (1995) [12]. Florez-Lopez (1995) [13] and Picon and Florez-Lopez (2000) [14] However, some modifications were introduced in the functions that control the damage evolution in order to improve the results obtained. The efficiency of the new approach is evaluated by means of a comparison with experimental results on reinforced concrete structures such as simply supported beams, plane frames and beam-to-column connections Finally, the adequacy of the numerical model representing the global behaviour of framed structures is investigated and the limits of the analysis are discussed (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved

A numerical model for the description of the nonlinear behaviour of multi-leaf masonry walls

A nonlinear finite element model was developed to simulate the nonlinear response of three-leaf masonry specimens, which were subjected to laboratory tests with the aim of investigating the mechanical behaviour of multiple-leaf stone masonry walls up to failure. The specimens consisted of two external leaves made of stone bricks and mortar joints, and an internal leaf in mortar and stone aggregate. Different loading conditions, typologies of the collar joints, and stone types were taken into account. The constitutive law implemented in the model is characterized by a damage tensor, which allows the damage-induced anisotropy accompanying the cracking process to be described. To follow the post-peak behaviour of the specimens with sufficient accuracy it was necessary to make the damage model non-local, to avoid mesh-dependency effects related to the strain-softening behaviour of the material. Comparisons between the predicted and measured failure loads are quite satisfactory in most of the studied cases. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Deterministic mathematical model for the prediction of the as-cast macrostructure

A multiphase deterministic mathematical model was implemented to predict the formation of the grain macrostructure during unidirectional solidification. The model consists of macroscopic equations of energy, mass, and species conservation coupled with dendritic growth models. A grain nucleation model based on a Gaussian distribution of nucleation undercoolings was also adopted. At some solidification conditions, the cooling curves calculated with the model showed oscillations (""wiggles""), which prevented the correct prediction of the average grain size along the structure. Numerous simulations were carried out at nucleation conditions where the oscillations are absent, enabling an assessment of the effect of the heat transfer coefficient on the average grain size and columnar-to-equiaxed transition.