Greenhouse gas emissions from alternative futures of deforestation and agricultural management in the southern Amazon

The Brazilian Amazon is one of the most rapidly developing agricultural areas in the world and represents a potentially large future source of greenhouse gases from land clearing and subsequent agricultural management. In an integrated approach, we estimate the greenhouse gas dynamics of natural ecosystems and agricultural ecosystems after clearing in the context of a future climate. We examine scenarios of deforestation and postclearing land use to estimate the future (2006-2050) impacts on carbon dioxide (CO(2)), methane (CH(4)), and nitrous oxide (N(2)O) emissions from the agricultural frontier state of Mato Grosso, using a process-based biogeochemistry model, the Terrestrial Ecosystems Model (TEM). We estimate a net emission of greenhouse gases from Mato Grosso, ranging from 2.8 to 15.9 Pg CO(2)-equivalents (CO(2)-e) from 2006 to 2050. Deforestation is the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions over this period, but land uses following clearing account for a substantial portion (24-49%) of the net greenhouse gas budget. Due to land-cover and land-use change, there is a small foregone carbon sequestration of 0.2-0.4 Pg CO(2)-e by natural forests and cerrado between 2006 and 2050. Both deforestation and future land-use management play important roles in the net greenhouse gas emissions of this frontier, suggesting that both should be considered in emissions policies. We find that avoided deforestation remains the best strategy for minimizing future greenhouse gas emissions from Mato Grosso.

Historical carbon emissions and uptake from the agricultural frontier of the Brazilian Amazon

Tropical ecosystems play a large and complex role in the global carbon cycle. Clearing of natural ecosystems for agriculture leads to large pulses of CO(2) to the atmosphere from terrestrial biomass. Concurrently, the remaining intact ecosystems, especially tropical forests, may be sequestering a large amount of carbon from the atmosphere in response to global environmental changes including climate changes and an increase in atmospheric CO(2). Here we use an approach that integrates census-based historical land use reconstructions, remote-sensing-based contemporary land use change analyses, and simulation modeling of terrestrial biogeochemistry to estimate the net carbon balance over the period 1901-2006 for the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil, which is one of the most rapidly changing agricultural frontiers in the world. By the end of this period, we estimate that of the state`s 925 225 km(2), 221 092 km(2) have been converted to pastures and 89 533 km(2) have been converted to croplands, with forest-to-pasture conversions being the dominant land use trajectory but with recent transitions to croplands increasing rapidly in the last decade. These conversions have led to a cumulative release of 4.8 Pg C to the atmosphere, with similar to 80% from forest clearing and 20% from the clearing of cerrado. Over the same period, we estimate that the residual undisturbed ecosystems accumulated 0.3 Pg C in response to CO2 fertilization. Therefore, the net emissions of carbon from Mato Grosso over this period were 4.5 Pg C. Net carbon emissions from Mato Grosso since 2000 averaged 146 Tg C/yr, on the order of Brazil`s fossil fuel emissions during this period. These emissions were associated with the expansion of croplands to grow soybeans. While alternative management regimes in croplands, including tillage, fertilization, and cropping patterns promote carbon storage in ecosystems, they remain a small portion of the net carbon balance for the region. This detailed accounting of a region`s carbon balance is the type of foundation analysis needed by the new United Nations Collaborative Programmme for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD).

Large Woody Debris Input and Its Influence on Channel Structure in Agricultural Lands of Southeast Brazil

Riparian forests are important for the structure and functioning of stream ecosystems, providing structural components such as large woody debris (LWD). Changes in these forests will cause modifications in the LWD input to streams, affecting their structure. In order to assess the influence of riparian forests changes in LWD supply, 15 catchments (third and fourth order) with riparian forests at different conservation levels were selected for sampling. In each catchment we quantified the abundance, volume and diameter of LWD in stream channels; the number, area and volume of pools formed by LWD and basal area and tree diameter of riparian forest. We found that riparian forests were at a secondary successional stage with predominantly young trees (diameter at breast height < 10 cm) in all studied streams. Results showed that basal area and diameter of riparian forest differed between the stream groups (forested and non-forested), but tree density did not differ between groups. Differences were also observed in LWD abundance, volume, frequency of LWD pools with subunits and area and volume of LWD pools. LWD diameter, LWD that form pools diameter and frequency of LWD pools without subunits did not differ between stream groups. Regression analyses showed that LWD abundance and volume, and frequency of LWD pools (with and without subunits) were positively related with the proportion of riparian forest. LWD diameter was not correlated to riparian tree diameter. The frequency of LWD pools was correlated to the abundance and volume of LWD, but characteristics of these pools (area and volume) were not correlated to the diameter of LWD that formed the pools. These results show that alterations in riparian forest cause modifications in the LWD abundance and volume in the stream channel, affecting mainly the structural complexity of these ecosystems (reduction in the number and structural characteristics of LWD pools). Our results also demonstrate that riparian forest conservation actions must consider not only its extension, but also successional stage to guarantee the quantity and quality of LWD necessary to enable the structuring of stream channels.

Consumo alimentar e ecologia de populações ribeirinhas em dois ecossistemas amazônicos: um estudo comparativo

OBJETIVO: Este artigo analisa e compara os dados de consumo alimentar de duas populações ribeirinhas da Amazônia vivendo em ecossistemas contrastantes de floresta tropical: a várzea estacional e a floresta de terra firme. MÉTODOS: Foi estudado o consumo alimentar de 11 unidades domésticas na várzea (Ilha de Ituqui, Município de Santarém) e 17 na terra firme (Floresta Nacional de Caxiuanã, Municípios de Melgaço e Portel). O método utilizado foi o recordatório de 24 horas. As análises estatísticas foram executadas com o auxílio do programa Statistical Package for Social Sciences 12.0. RESULTADOS: Em ambos os ecossistemas, os resultados confirmam a centralidade do pescado e da mandioca na dieta local. Porém, a contribuição de outros itens alimentares secundários, tais como o açaí (em Caxiuanã) e o leite in natura (em Ituqui), também foi significante. Além disso, o açúcar revelou ser uma fonte de energia confiável para enfrentar as flutuações sazonais dos recursos naturais. Parece haver ainda uma maior contribuição energética dos peixes para a dieta de Ituqui, provavelmente em função da maior produtividade dos rios e lagos da várzea em relação à terra firme. Por fim, Ituqui revelou uma maior dependência de itens alimentares comprados, enquanto Caxiuanã mostrou estar ainda bastante vinculada à agricultura e às redes locais de troca. CONCLUSÃO: Além dos resultados confirmarem a importância do pescado e da mandioca, também mostraram que produtos industrializados, como o açúcar, têm um papel importante nas dietas, podendo apontar para tendências no consumo alimentar relacionadas com a atual transição nutricional e com a erosão, em diferentes níveis, dos sistemas de subsistência locais.

Conversion to soy on the Amazonian agricultural frontier increases streamflow without affecting stormflow dynamics

Large-scale soy agriculture in the southern Brazilian Amazon now rivals deforestation for pasture as the region`s predominant form of land use change. Such landscape-level change can have substantial consequences for local and regional hydrology, but these effects remain relatively unstudied in this ecologically and economically important region. We examined how the conversion to soy agriculture influences water balances and stormflows using stream discharge (water yields) and the timing of discharge (stream hydrographs) in small (2.5-13.5 km2) forested and soy headwater watersheds in the Upper Xingu Watershed in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil. We monitored water yield for 1 year in three forested and four soy watersheds. Mean daily water yields were approximately four times higher in soy than forested watersheds, and soy watersheds showed greater seasonal variability in discharge. The contribution of stormflows to annual streamflow in all streams was low (< 13% of annual streamflow), and the contribution of stormflow to streamflow did not differ between land uses. If the increases in water yield observed in this study are typical, landscape-scale conversion to soy substantially alters water-balance, potentially altering the regional hydrology over large areas of the southern Amazon.

Changes in soil organic carbon storage under different agricultural management systems in the Southwest Amazon Region of Brazil

The Cerrado and Amazon regions of Brazil are probably the largest agricultural frontier of the world, and Could be a sink or source for C depending on the net effect of land use change and subsequent management on soil organic C pools. We evaluated the effects of agricultural management systems on soil organic C (SOC) stocks in the Brazilian states of Rondonia and Mato Grosso, and derived regional specific factors for soil C stock change associated with different management systems. We used 50 observations (data points) in this study, including 42 dealing with annual cropping practices and 8 dealing with perennial cropping, and analyzed the data in linear mixed-effect models. No tillage (NT) systems in Cerrado areas increased SOC Storage by 1.08 +/- 0.06 relative to SOC stocks under native conditions, while SOC storage increased by a modest factor of 1.01 +/- 0.17 in Cerradao and Amazon Forest conditions. Full tillage (FT) had negative effect on SOC storage relative to NT, decreasing SOC stocks by a factor of 0.94 +/- 0.04. but did not significantly reduce SOC stocks relative to native levels when adopted in the Cerrado region. Perennial cropping had a minimal impact on SOC stocks, estimated at a factor Value of 0.98 +/- 0.14, suggesting these systems maintain about 98% of the SOC stock found under native vegetation. The results Suggest that NT adoption may be increasing SOC with land use change from native vegetation to cropland management in the Cerrado region of Brazil. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Carbon sequestration in agricultural soils in the Cerrado region of the Brazilian Amazon

The introduction of crop management practices after conversion of Amazon Cerrado into cropland influences soil C stocks and has direct and indirect consequences on greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions. The aim of this study was to quantify soil C sequestration, through the evaluation of the changes in C stocks, as well as the GHG fluxes (N(2)O and CH(4)) during the process of conversion of Cerrado into agricultural land in the southwestern Amazon region, comparing no-tillage (NT) and conventional tillage (CT) systems. We collected samples from soils and made gas flux measurements in July 2004 (the dry season) and in January 2005 (the wet season) at six areas: Cerrado, CT cultivated with rice for 1 year (1CT) and 2 years (2CT), and NT cultivated with soybean for 1 year (1NT), 2 years (2NT) and 3 years (3NT), in each case after a 2-year period of rice under CT. Soil samples were analyzed in both seasons for total organic C and bulk density. The soil C stocks, corrected for a mass of soil equivalent to the 0-30-cm layer under Cerrado, indicated that soils under NT had generally higher C storage compared to native Cerrado and CT soils. The annual C accumulation rate in the conversion of rice under CT into soybean under NT was 0.38 Mg ha(-1) year(-1). Although CO(2) emissions were not used in the C sequestration estimates to avoid double counting, we did include the fluxes of this gas in our discussion. In the wet season, CO(2) emissions were twice as high as in the dry season and the highest N(2)O emissions occurred under the NT system. There were no CH(4) emissions to the atmosphere (negative fluxes) and there were no significant seasonal variations. When N(2)O and CH(4) emissions in C-equivalent were subtracted (assuming that the measurements made on 4 days were representative of the whole year), the soil C sequestration rate of the conversion of rice under CT into soybean under NT was 0.23 Mg ha(-1) year(-1). Although there were positive soil C sequestration rates, our results do not present data regarding the full C balance in soil management changes in the Amazon Cerrado. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Arsenic and Chromium in Brazilian Agricultural Supplies

Arsenic (As) and chromium (Cr) contents were measured in agricultural supplies used at different farms in Sao Paulo State, Brazil. The highest mass fractions of As were found in thermophosphates, reaching levels of 4 mg/kg. The highest mass fractions of Cr (21 g/kg) were found in calcium magnesium silicate, while the thermophosphates also presented high values reaching approximately 1 g/kg. The levels of As were within Brazilian guidelines, but the values of Cr in thermophosphates exceeded the levels permitted in Brazil. The As content in fertilizers may be considered safe (5 mg/kg) in terms of environmental pollution. However, the Cr content in calcium magnesium silicate following continuous use may constitute a significant problem in Brazil due to potentially increasing levels of this metal in soils.

Chemical characterization of agricultural supplies applied to organic tomato cultivation

The agricultural supplies used in the organic system to control pests and diseases as well as to fertilize soil are claimed to be beneficial to plants and innocuous to human health and to the environment. The chemical composition of six agricultural supplies commonly used in the organic tomato culture, was evaluated by instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA). Results were compared to the maximum limits established by the Environment Control Agency of the Sao Paulo State (CETESB) and the Guidelines for Organic Quality Standard of Instituto Biodinamico (IBD). Concentrations above reference values were found for Co, Cr and Zn in compost, Cr and Zn in cattle manure and Zn in rice bran.

Defining Nutrient and Biochemical Oxygen Demand Baselines for Tropical Rivers and Streams in So Paulo State (Brazil): A Comparison Between Reference and Impacted Sites

Determining reference concentrations in rivers and streams is an important tool for environmental management. Reference conditions for eutrophication-related water variables are unavailable for Brazilian freshwaters. We aimed to establish reference baselines for So Paulo State tropical rivers and streams for total phosphorus (TP) and nitrogen (TN), nitrogen-ammonia (NH(4) (+)) and Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD) through the best professional judgment and the trisection methods. Data from 319 sites monitored by the So Paulo State Environmental Company (2005 to 2009) and from the 22 Water Resources Management Units in So Paulo State were assessed (N = 27,131). We verified that data from different management units dominated by similar land cover could be analyzed together (Analysis of Variance, P = 0.504). Cumulative frequency diagrams showed that industrialized management units were characterized by the worst water quality (e.g. average TP of 0.51 mg/L), followed by agricultural watersheds. TN and NH(4) (+) were associated with urban percentages and population density (Spearman Rank Correlation Test, P < 0.05). Best professional judgment and trisection (median of lower third of all sites) methods for determining reference concentrations showed agreement: 0.03 & 0.04 mg/L (TP), 0.31 & 0.34 mg/L (TN), 0.06 & 0.10 mg-N/L (NH(4) (+)) and 2 & 2 mg/L (BOD), respectively. Our reference concentrations were similar to TP and TN reference values proposed for temperate water bodies. These baselines can help with water management in So Paulo State, as well as providing some of the first such information for tropical ecosystems.

Rural and Urban Streams: Anthropogenic Influences and Impacts on Water and Sediment Quality

The Pirapo river watershed (Parana State, Brazil) compounds a relatively industrialized and urbanized region, undergoing great pressure from the discharge of industrial, agricultural and domestic wastes. We evaluated the environmental quality of ten streams belonging to this watershed in April and June 2008 by performing acute and chronic toxicity tests with Daphnia similis and Ceriodaphnia silvestrii from water and sediment samples. We tested the hypothesis that the streams located in urban areas are more exposed to the influence of pollutants, than those outside the city limits. In addition, we obtained the measures of physical and chemical parameters, and identified the main polluted sources. Contrary to what was expected, the rural streams were more toxic than those located in urban area. These results demonstrate that the water bodies located in rural areas are being affected by the pollution of aquatic ecosystems as far as those found in urban areas, requiring the same attention of environmental managers in relation to its monitoring.

PROPOSAL OF A PERFORMANCE MEASURING SYSTEM APPLIED TO AGRICULTURAL MECHANIZATION

The leaders` organizations of several different sectors have as characteristic to measure their own performance in a systematic way. However, this concept is still unusual in agricultural enterprises, including the mechanization sector. Mechanization has an important role on the production costs and to know its performance is a key factor for the agricultural enterprise success. This work was generated by the importance that measurement of performance has for the management and the mechanization impact on the production costs. Its aim is to propose an integrated performance measurement system to give support to agricultural management. The methodology was divided in two steps: adjustment of a conceptual model based on Balanced Score Card - BSC; application of the model in a study case at sugar cane mill. The adjustment and the application of the conceptual model allowed to obtain the performance index in a systematic way, that are associated to: costs and deadline ( traditionally used); control and improvement on the quality of operations and support process; environmental preservation; safety; health; employees satisfaction; development of information systems. The adjusted model helped the development of the performance measurement system for the mechanized management systems and the index allows an integrated view of the enterprise, related to its strategic objectives.

Pricing farm-level agricultural insurance: a Bayesian approach

This paper applies Hierarchical Bayesian Models to price farm-level yield insurance contracts. This methodology considers the temporal effect, the spatial dependence and spatio-temporal models. One of the major advantages of this framework is that an estimate of the premium rate is obtained directly from the posterior distribution. These methods were applied to a farm-level data set of soybean in the State of the Parana (Brazil), for the period between 1994 and 2003. The model selection was based on a posterior predictive criterion. This study improves considerably the estimation of the fair premium rates considering the small number of observations.

ECONOMICAL OCCUPATION OF AGRICULTURAL AREA OF PIRACICABA (SAO PAULO STATE, BRAZIL), INCLUDING RISK THROUGH LINEAR PROGRAMMING

The economic occupation of an area of 500 ha for Piracicaba was studied with the irrigated cultures of maize, tomato, sugarcane and beans, having used models of deterministic linear programming and linear programming including risk for the Target-Motad model, where two situations had been analyzed. In the deterministic model the area was the restrictive factor and the water was not restrictive for none of the tested situations. For the first situation the gotten maximum income was of R$ 1,883,372.87 and for the second situation it was of R$ 1,821,772.40. In the model including risk a producer that accepts risk can in the first situation get the maximum income of R$ 1,883,372. 87 with a minimum risk of R$ 350 year(-1), and in the second situation R$ 1,821,772.40 with a minimum risk of R$ 40 year(-1). Already a producer averse to the risk can get in the first situation a maximum income of R$ 1,775,974.81 with null risk and for the second situation R$ 1.707.706, 26 with null risk, both without water restriction. These results stand out the importance of the inclusion of the risk in supplying alternative occupations to the producer, allowing to a producer taking of decision considered the risk aversion and the pretension of income.

Spatio-temporal modeling of agricultural yield data with an application to pricing crop insurance contracts

This article presents a statistical model of agricultural yield data based on a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that allows joint modeling of temporal and spatial autocorrelation. This method captures a comprehensive range of the various uncertainties involved in predicting crop insurance premium rates as opposed to the more traditional ad hoc, two-stage methods that are typically based on independent estimation and prediction. A panel data set of county-average yield data was analyzed for 290 counties in the State of Parana (Brazil) for the period of 1990 through 2002. Posterior predictive criteria are used to evaluate different model specifications. This article provides substantial improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to situations where data are limited.