Modeling the risk of malaria for travelers to areas with stable malaria transmission

Background: Malaria is an important threat to travelers visiting endemic regions. The risk of acquiring malaria is complex and a number of factors including transmission intensity, duration of exposure, season of the year and use of chemoprophylaxis have to be taken into account estimating risk. Materials and methods: A mathematical model was developed to estimate the risk of non-immune individual acquiring falciparum malaria when traveling to the Amazon region of Brazil. The risk of malaria infection to travelers was calculated as a function of duration of exposure and season of arrival. Results: The results suggest significant variation of risk for non-immune travelers depending on arrival season, duration of the visit and transmission intensity. The calculated risk for visitors staying longer than 4 months during peak transmission was 0.5% per visit. Conclusions: Risk estimates based on mathematical modeling based on accurate data can be a valuable tool in assessing risk/benefits and cost/benefits when deciding on the value of interventions for travelers to malaria endemic regions.

The International Collaboration on Air Pollution and Pregnancy Outcomes: Initial Results

BACKGROUND: The findings of prior studies of air pollution effects on adverse birth outcomes are difficult to synthesize because of differences in study design. OBJECTIVES: The International Collaboration on Air Pollution and Pregnancy Outcomes was formed to understand how differences in research methods contribute to variations in findings. We initiated a feasibility study to a) assess the ability of geographically diverse research groups to analyze their data sets using a common protocol and b) perform location-specific analyses of air pollution effects on birth weight using a standardized statistical approach. METHODS: Fourteen research groups from nine countries participated. We developed a protocol to estimate odds ratios (ORs) for the association between particulate matter <= 10 mu m in aerodynamic diameter (PM(10)) and low birth weight (LBW) among term births, adjusted first for socioeconomic status (SES) and second for additional location-specific variables. RESULTS: Among locations with data for the PM(10) analysis, ORs estimating the relative risk of term LBW associated with a 10-mu g/m(3) increase in average PM(10) concentration during pregnancy, adjusted for SES, ranged from 0.63 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.30-1.35] for the Netherlands to 1.15 (95% CI, 0.61-2.18) for Vancouver, with six research groups reporting statistically significant adverse associations. We found evidence of statistically significant heterogeneity in estimated effects among locations. CONCLUSIONS: Variability in PM(10)-LBW relationships among study locations remained despite use of a common statistical approach. A more detailed meta-analysis and use of more complex protocols for future analysis may uncover reasons for heterogeneity across locations. However, our findings confirm the potential for a diverse group of researchers to analyze their data in a standardized way to improve understanding of air pollution effects on birth outcomes.

The Genomic Ancestry of Individuals from Different Geographical Regions of Brazil Is More Uniform Than Expected

Based on pre-DNA racial/color methodology, clinical and pharmacological trials have traditionally considered the different geographical regions of Brazil as being very heterogeneous. We wished to ascertain how such diversity of regional color categories correlated with ancestry. Using a panel of 40 validated ancestry-informative insertion-deletion DNA polymorphisms we estimated individually the European, African and Amerindian ancestry components of 934 self-categorized White, Brown or Black Brazilians from the four most populous regions of the Country. We unraveled great ancestral diversity between and within the different regions. Especially, color categories in the northern part of Brazil diverged significantly in their ancestry proportions from their counterparts in the southern part of the Country, indicating that diverse regional semantics were being used in the self-classification as White, Brown or Black. To circumvent these regional subjective differences in color perception, we estimated the general ancestry proportions of each of the four regions in a form independent of color considerations. For that, we multiplied the proportions of a given ancestry in a given color category by the official census information about the proportion of that color category in the specific region, to arrive at a ""total ancestry"" estimate. Once such a calculation was performed, there emerged a much higher level of uniformity than previously expected. In all regions studied, the European ancestry was predominant, with proportions ranging from 60.6% in the Northeast to 77.7% in the South. We propose that the immigration of six million Europeans to Brazil in the 19(th) and 20(th) centuries - a phenomenon described and intended as the ""whitening of Brazil"" -is in large part responsible for dissipating previous ancestry dissimilarities that reflected region-specific population histories. These findings, of both clinical and sociological importance for Brazil, should also be relevant to other countries with ancestrally admixed populations.

Urban air pollution and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease-related emergency department visits

Background: Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) can have recurrent disease exacerbations triggered by several factors, including air pollution. Visits to the emergency respiratory department can be a direct result of short-term exposure to air pollution. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between the daily number of COPD emergency department visits and the daily environmental air concentrations of PM(10), SO(2), NO(2), CO and O(3) in the City of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Methods: The sample data were collected between 2001 and 2003 and are categorised by gender and age. Generalised linear Poisson regression models were adopted to control for both short-and long-term seasonal changes as well as for temperature and relative humidity. The non-linear dependencies were controlled using a natural cubic spline function. Third-degree polynomial distributed lag models were adopted to estimate both lag structures and the cumulative effects of air pollutants. Results: PM(10) and SO(2) readings showed both acute and lagged effects on COPD emergency department visits. Interquartile range increases in their concentration (28.3 mg/m(3) and 7.8 mg/m(3), respectively) were associated with a cumulative 6-day increase of 19% and 16% in COPD admissions, respectively. An effect on women was observed at lag 0, and among the elderly the lag period was noted to be longer. Increases in CO concentration showed impacts in the female and elderly groups. NO(2) and O(3) presented mild effects on the elderly and in women, respectively. Conclusion: These results indicate that air pollution affects health in a gender-and age-specific manner and should be considered a relevant risk factor that exacerbates COPD in urban environments.

Determination of Threshold Dose of Photodynamic Therapy to Measure Superficial Necrosis

Background Data: Photodynamic therapy (PDT) involves the photoinduction of cytotoxicity using a photosensitizer agent, a light source of the proper wavelength, and the presence of molecular oxygen. A model for tissue response to PDT based on the photodynamic threshold dose (Dth) has been widely used. In this model cells exposed to doses below Dth survive while at doses above the Dth necrosis takes place. Objective: This study evaluated the light Dth values by using two different methods of determination. One model concerns the depth of necrosis and the other the width of superficial necrosis. Materials and Methods: Using normal rat liver we investigated the depth and width of necrosis induced by PDT when a laser with a gaussian intensity profile is used. Different light doses, photosensitizers (Photogem, Photofrin, Photosan, Foscan, Photodithazine, and Radachlorin), and concentrations were employed. Each experiment was performed on five animals and the average and standard deviations were calculated. Results: A simple depth and width of necrosis model analysis allows us to determine the threshold dose by measuring both depth and surface data. Comparison shows that both measurements provide the same value within the degree of experimental error. Conclusion: This work demonstrates that by knowing the extent of the superficial necrotic area of a target tissue irradiated by a gaussian light beam, it is possible to estimate the threshold dose. This technique may find application where the determination of Dth must be done without cutting the tissue.

Endothelial Nitric Oxide Genotypes and Haplotypes Are Not Associated with End-Stage Renal Disease

The identification of genetic markers associated with chronic kidney disease (CKD) may help to predict its development. Because reduced nitric oxide (NO) bioavailability and endothelial dysfunction are involved in CKD, genetic polymorphisms in the gene encoding the enzyme involved in NO synthesis (endothelial NO synthase [eNos]) may affect the susceptibility to CKD and the development of end-stage renal disease (ESRD). We compared genotype and haplotype distributions of three relevant eNOS polymorphisms (T(-786) C in the promoter region, Glu298Asp in exon 7, and 4b/4a in intron 4) in 110 healthy control subjects and 127 ESRD patients. Genotypes for the T(-786) C and Glu298Asp polymorphisms were determined by TaqMan (R) Allele Discrimination assay and real-time polymerase chain reaction. Genotypes for the intron 4 polymorphism were determined by polymerase chain reaction and fragment separation by electrophoresis. The software program PHASE 2.1 was used to estimate the haplotypes frequencies. We considered significant a probability value of p < 0.05/number of haplotypes (p < 0.05/8 = 0.0063). We found no significant differences between groups with respect to age, ethnicity, and gender. CKD patients had higher blood pressure, total cholesterol, and creatinine levels than healthy control subjects (all p < 0.05). Genotype and allele distributions for the three eNOS polymorphisms were similar in both groups (p > 0.05). We found no significant differences in haplotype distribution between groups (p > 0.05). The lack of significant associations between eNOS polymorphisms and ESRD suggests that eNOS polymorphisms may not be relevant to the genetic component of CKD that leads to ESRD.

Variability in Estrogen-Metabolizing Genes and Their Association with Genomic Instability in Untreated Breast Cancer Patients and Healthy Women

In the present study, we investigated the relationship between polymorphisms in the estrogen-metabolizing genes CYP17, CYP1B1, CYP1A1, and COMT and genomic instability in the peripheral blood lymphocytes of 62 BC patients and 62 controls considering that increased or prolonged exposure to estrogen can damage the DNA molecule and increase the genomic instability process in breast tissue. Our data demonstrated increased genomic instability in BC patients and that individuals with higher frequencies of MN exhibited higher risk to BC when belonging Val/Met genotype of the COMT gene. We also observed that CYP17 and CYP1A1 polymorphisms can modify the risk to BC depending on the menopause status. We can conclude that the genetic background in estrogen metabolism pathway can modulate chromosome damage in healthy controls and patients and thereby influence the risk to BC. These findings suggest the importance to ally biomarkers of susceptibility and effects to estimate risk groups.

A Dynamic Analysis of Tuberculosis Dissemination to Improve Control and Surveillance

Background: Detailed analysis of the dynamic interactions among biological, environmental, social, and economic factors that favour the spread of certain diseases is extremely useful for designing effective control strategies. Diseases like tuberculosis that kills somebody every 15 seconds in the world, require methods that take into account the disease dynamics to design truly efficient control and surveillance strategies. The usual and well established statistical approaches provide insights into the cause-effect relationships that favour disease transmission but they only estimate risk areas, spatial or temporal trends. Here we introduce a novel approach that allows figuring out the dynamical behaviour of the disease spreading. This information can subsequently be used to validate mathematical models of the dissemination process from which the underlying mechanisms that are responsible for this spreading could be inferred. Methodology/Principal Findings: The method presented here is based on the analysis of the spread of tuberculosis in a Brazilian endemic city during five consecutive years. The detailed analysis of the spatio-temporal correlation of the yearly geo-referenced data, using different characteristic times of the disease evolution, allowed us to trace the temporal path of the aetiological agent, to locate the sources of infection, and to characterize the dynamics of disease spreading. Consequently, the method also allowed for the identification of socio-economic factors that influence the process. Conclusions/Significance: The information obtained can contribute to more effective budget allocation, drug distribution and recruitment of human skilled resources, as well as guiding the design of vaccination programs. We propose that this novel strategy can also be applied to the evaluation of other diseases as well as other social processes.

Glut1 and Glut3 as Potential Prognostic Markers for Oral Squamous Cell Carcinoma

We associated clinical-pathological features of 142 OSCC with the expression pattern of GLUT1 and GLUT3 in order to estimate their prognostic value. Methods: Clinical-pathological features and overall survival data of 142 patients with Oral Squamous Cell Carcinoma (OSCC) were retrospectively reviewed from A. C. Camargo hospital records. A tissue microarray (TMA) was built for the immunohistochemical (IHC) analysis of GLUT 1 and GLUT 3. IHC results were evaluated according to the staining pattern and number of positive cells. Results: GLUT 1 was over expressed in 50.3% of OSSC cases showing membrane staining pattern. However, nuclear expression was observed in 49.7% of the analyzed cases. GLUT 3 over expression was detected in 21.1% of OSCC cases. The pattern of GLUT 1 expression showed significant association with alcohol consumption (p = 0.004). Positive cell membrane GLUT 3 protein expression was associated with advanced clinic-staging of tumours (p = 0.005) as well as with vascular embolization (p = 0.005). Positive expression of GLUT 3 was associated with unfavorable free-disease survival (p = 0.021). Conclusion: GLUT1 and GLUT3 protein expression evaluated by immunohistochemistry are, significantly, indicators of poor prognosis outcome in oral squamous cell carcinoma, probably due to the enhanced glycolytic metabolism of more aggressive neoplastic cells.

Trends in socioeconomic inequalities in cancer mortality in Barcelona: 1992-2003

Background: The objective of this study was to assess trends in cancer mortality by educational level in Barcelona from 1992 to 2003. Methods: The study population comprised Barcelona inhabitants aged 20 years or older. Data on cancer deaths were supplied by the system of information on mortality. Educational level was obtained from the municipal census. Age-standardized rates by educational level were calculated. We also fitted Poisson regression models to estimate the relative index of inequality (RII) and the Slope Index of Inequalities (SII). All were calculated for each sex and period (1992-1994, 1995-1997, 1998-2000, and 2001-2003). Results: Cancer mortality was higher in men and women with lower educational level throughout the study period. Less-schooled men had higher mortality by stomach, mouth and pharynx, oesophagus, larynx and lung cancer. In women, there were educational inequalities for cervix uteri, liver and colon cancer. Inequalities of overall and specific types of cancer mortality remained stable in Barcelona; although a slight reduction was observed for some cancers. Conclusion: This study has identified those cancer types presenting the greatest inequalities between men and women in recent years and shown that in Barcelona there is a stable trend in inequalities in the burden of cancer.

Genetic parameters for pre-weaning traits in Braunvieh cattle

The objective of this study was to estimate genetic parameters for pre-weaning traits of Braunvieh cattle raised under tropical conditions in Brazil. The weight and weight gain parameters were birth weight (BW, N = 9955), weight at 120 days of age (W120, N = 5901), weaning weight at 205 days (WW, N = 6970), weight gain from birth to 205 days (GAIN205, N = 6013), weight gain from birth to 120 days (GAIN120, N = 5135), and weight gain from 120 to 205 days (GAIN85, N = 4482). Variance components were estimated using the animal model with the MTDFREML software. The relationship matrix included 35,188 animals; phenotypic measures were available for 18,688. Direct and maternal heritability increased from birth to weaning, with estimates of 0.23 +/- 0.037, 0.25 +/- 0.050, 0.41 +/- 0.059 for direct heritability for BW, W120 and WW, respectively, 0.08 +/- 0.012, 0.15 +/- 0.032, 0.22 +/- 0.036 for maternal genetic effects, and 0.18, 0.14 and 0.16 for total heritability estimates. For pre-weaning gains, estimates of heritability were 0.36 +/- 0.059, 0.30 +/- 0.059, 0.12 +/- 0.035 for direct genetic effects of the traits GAIN205, GAIN120 and GAIN85, respectively, 0.23 +/- 0.038, 0.17 +/- 0.037, 0.03 +/- 0.029 for estimates of maternal heritability, and 0.12, 0.13, 0.16 for total heritability, respectively. Genetic correlations between weights were greater between measures taken at shorter intervals. This information can be used to optimize the design of programs for genetic improvement of Braunvieh cattle raised under tropical conditions.

Estimates of genetic trend for carcass traits in a commercial broiler line

Data from the slaughter of 24,001 chickens that were part of a selection program for the production of commercial broilers were used to estimate genetic trend for absolute carcass (CW), breast meat (BRW), and leg (LW) weights, and relative carcass (CY), breast meat (BRY), and leg (LY) weights. The components of (co) variance and breeding values of individuals were obtained by the restricted maximum likelihood method applied to animal models. The relationship matrix was composed of 132,442 birds. The models included as random effects, maternal additive genetic and permanent environmental for CW, BRW, LW, CY, and BRY, and only maternal permanent environmental for LY, besides the direct additive genetic and residual effects, and as fixed effects, hatch week, parents' mating group and sex. The estimates of genetic trend were obtained by average regression of breeding value on generation, and the average genetic trend was estimated by regression coefficients. The genetic trends for CW (+ 6.0336 g/generation), BRW (+ 3.6723 g/generation), LW (+ 1.5846 g/generation), CY (+ 0.1195%/generation), and BRY (+ 0.1388%/generation) were positive, and they were in accordance with the objectives of the selection program for these traits. The genetic trend for LY(-0.0019%/generation) was negative, possibly due to the strong emphasis on selection for BRY and the negative correlations between these two traits.

Genetic parameters for productive life traits and reproductive efficiency traits at 6 years in Nellore cattle

The objective of the present study was to estimate (co)variance components for length of productive life (LPL) and some alternative reproductive traits of 6-year-old Nellore cattle. The data set contained 57,410 records for age at first calving from Nellore females and was edited to remove animal records with uncertain paternity and cows with just one piece of calving information. Only animals with age at first calving ranging from 23 to 48 months and calving intervals between 11 and 24 months were kept for analysis. LPL and life production ( LP) were used to describe productive life. LPL was defined as the number of months a cow was kept in the herd until she was 6 years old, given that she was alive at first calving and LP was defined as total number of calves in that time. Four traits were used to describe reproductive traits: two breeding efficiencies on original scale were estimated using Wilcox and Tomar functions (BEW and BET, respectively), and two breeding efficiencies transformed (ASBEW and ASBET, respectively), using the function [arcsine (square root (BEi/100))]. Estimates of heritability for measures of LPL and LP were low and ranged from 0.04 to 0.05. Estimates of heritability for breeding efficiencies on original and transformed scales oscillated from 0.18 to 0.32. Estimates of genetic correlations ranged from -0.57 to 0.79 for LPL and other traits and from 0.28 to 0.63 for LP and other traits.

Observational Characterization of the Downward Atmospheric Longwave Radiation at the Surface in the City of Sao Paulo

This work describes the seasonal and diurnal variations of downward longwave atmospheric irradiance (LW) at the surface in Sao Paulo, Brazil, using 5-min-averaged values of LW, air temperature, relative humidity, and solar radiation observed continuously and simultaneously from 1997 to 2006 on a micrometeorological platform, located at the top of a 4-story building. An objective procedure, including 2-step filtering and dome emission effect correction, was used to evaluate the quality of the 9-yr-long LW dataset. The comparison between LW values observed and yielded by the Surface Radiation Budget project shows spatial and temporal agreement, indicating that monthly and annual average values of LW observed in one point of Sao Paulo can be used as representative of the entire metropolitan region of Sao Paulo. The maximum monthly averaged value of the LW is observed during summer (389 +/- 14 W m(-2): January), and the minimum is observed during winter (332 +/- 12 W m(-2); July). The effective emissivity follows the LW and shows a maximum in summer (0.907 +/- 0.032; January) and a minimum in winter (0.818 +/- 0.029; June). The mean cloud effect, identified objectively by comparing the monthly averaged values of the LW during clear-sky days and all-sky conditions, intensified the monthly average LW by about 32.0 +/- 3.5 W m(-2) and the atmospheric effective emissivity by about 0.088 +/- 0.024. In August, the driest month of the year in Sao Paulo, the diurnal evolution of the LW shows a minimum (325 +/- 11 W m(-2)) at 0900 LT and a maximum (345 12 W m-2) at 1800 LT, which lags behind (by 4 h) the maximum diurnal variation of the screen temperature. The diurnal evolution of effective emissivity shows a minimum (0.781 +/- 0.027) during daytime and a maximum (0.842 +/- 0.030) during nighttime. The diurnal evolution of all-sky condition and clear-sky day differences in the effective emissivity remain relatively constant (7% +/- 1%), indicating that clouds do not change the emissivity diurnal pattern. The relationship between effective emissivity and screen air temperature and between effective emissivity and water vapor is complex. During the night, when the planetary boundary layer is shallower, the effective emissivity can be estimated by screen parameters. During the day, the relationship between effective emissivity and screen parameters varies from place to place and depends on the planetary boundary layer process. Because the empirical expressions do not contain enough information about the diurnal variation of the vertical stratification of air temperature and moisture in Sao Paulo, they are likely to fail in reproducing the diurnal variation of the surface emissivity. The most accurate way to estimate the LW for clear-sky conditions in Sao Paulo is to use an expression derived from a purely empirical approach.

Continental passive microwave-based rainfall estimation algorithm: Application to the Amazon Basin

This paper presents a new statistical algorithm to estimate rainfall over the Amazon Basin region using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI). The algorithm relies on empirical relationships derived for different raining-type systems between coincident measurements of surface rainfall rate and 85-GHz polarization-corrected brightness temperature as observed by the precipitation radar (PR) and TMI on board the TRMM satellite. The scheme includes rain/no-rain area delineation (screening) and system-type classification routines for rain retrieval. The algorithm is validated against independent measurements of the TRMM-PR and S-band dual-polarization Doppler radar (S-Pol) surface rainfall data for two different periods. Moreover, the performance of this rainfall estimation technique is evaluated against well-known methods, namely, the TRMM-2A12 [ the Goddard profiling algorithm (GPROF)], the Goddard scattering algorithm (GSCAT), and the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) algorithms. The proposed algorithm shows a normalized bias of approximately 23% for both PR and S-Pol ground truth datasets and a mean error of 0.244 mm h(-1) ( PR) and -0.157 mm h(-1)(S-Pol). For rain volume estimates using PR as reference, a correlation coefficient of 0.939 and a normalized bias of 0.039 were found. With respect to rainfall distributions and rain area comparisons, the results showed that the formulation proposed is efficient and compatible with the physics and dynamics of the observed systems over the area of interest. The performance of the other algorithms showed that GSCAT presented low normalized bias for rain areas and rain volume [0.346 ( PR) and 0.361 (S-Pol)], and GPROF showed rainfall distribution similar to that of the PR and S-Pol but with a bimodal distribution. Last, the five algorithms were evaluated during the TRMM-Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) 1999 field campaign to verify the precipitation characteristics observed during the easterly and westerly Amazon wind flow regimes. The proposed algorithm presented a cumulative rainfall distribution similar to the observations during the easterly regime, but it underestimated for the westerly period for rainfall rates above 5 mm h(-1). NESDIS(1) overestimated for both wind regimes but presented the best westerly representation. NESDIS(2), GSCAT, and GPROF underestimated in both regimes, but GPROF was closer to the observations during the easterly flow.