Derivation and external validation of a simple prediction model for the diagnosis of type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in the Brazilian urban population

A risk score model was developed based in a population of 1,224 individuals from the general population without known diabetes aging 35 years or more from an urban Brazilian population sample in order to select individuals who should be screened in subsequent testing and improve the efficacy of public health assurance. External validation was performed in a second, independent, population from a different city ascertained through a similar epidemiological protocol. The risk score was developed by multiple logistic regression and model performance and cutoff values were derived from a receiver operating characteristic curve. Model`s capacity of predicting fasting blood glucose levels was tested analyzing data from a 5-year follow-up protocol conducted in the general population. Items independently and significantly associated with diabetes were age, BMI and known hypertension. Sensitivity, specificity and proportion of further testing necessary for the best cutoff value were 75.9, 66.9 and 37.2%, respectively. External validation confirmed the model`s adequacy (AUC equal to 0.72). Finally, model score was also capable of predicting fasting blood glucose progression in non-diabetic individuals in a 5-year follow-up period. In conclusion, this simple diabetes risk score was able to identify individuals with an increased likelihood of having diabetes and it can be used to stratify subpopulations in which performing of subsequent tests is necessary and probably cost-effective.

Risk factors for Chagas` disease reactivation after heart transplantation

Background: Chagas` disease is the illness caused by the protozoan Trypanosoma cruzi and it is still endemic in Latin America. Heart transplantation is a therapeutic option for patients with end-stage Chagas` cardiomyopathy. Nevertheless, reactivation may occur after transplantation, leading to higher morbidity and graft dysfunction. This study aimed to identify risk factors for Chagas` disease reactivation episodes. Methods: This investigation is a retrospective cohort study of all Chagas` disease heart transplant recipients from September 1985 through September 2004. Clinical, microbiologic and histopathologic data were reviewed. Statistical analysis was performed with SPSS (version 13) software. Results: Sixty-four (21.9%) patients with chronic Chagas` disease underwent heart transplantation during the study period. Seventeen patients (26.5%) had at least one episode of Chagas` disease reactivation, and univariate analysis identified number of rejection episodes (p = 0.013) and development of neoplasms (p = 0.040) as factors associated with Chagas` disease reactivation episodes. Multivariate analysis showed that number of rejection episodes (hazard ratio = 1.31; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.06 to 1.62; p = 0.011), neoplasms (hazard ratio = 5.07; 95% CI: 1.49 to 17.20; p = 0.009) and use of mycophenolate mofetil (hazard ratio = 3.14; 95% CI: 1.00 to 9.84; p = 0.049) are independent determinants for reactivation after transplantation. Age (p = 0.88), male gender (p = 0.15), presence of rejection (p = 0.17), cytomegalovirus infection (p = 0.79) and mortality after hospital discharge (p = 0.15) showed no statistically significant difference. Conclusions: Our data suggest that events resulting in greater immunosuppression status contribute to Chagas` disease reactivation episodes after heart transplantation and should alert physicians to make an early diagnosis and perform pre-emptive therapy. Although reactivation led to a high rate of morbidity, a low mortality risk was observed.

Subclinic atherosclerosis and cardiovascular risk factors in HIV-infected children: PERI study

Objectives To compare carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) of children and adolescents with and without HIV infection and to determine associations among independent socio-demographic, clinical or cardiovascular variables and cIMT in HIV-infected children and adolescents. Patients and methods This is a matched case-control study comparing 83 HIV-infected and 83 healthy children and adolescents. Clinical and laboratorial parameters, cIMT and echocardiogram were measured. Results The cIMT was higher in HIV-infected individuals (median 480 mu m; interquartile range 463-518 mu m) compared with controls (426 mu m; range 415-453 mu m, P < 0.001). In addition, the HIV-infected group showed higher levels of high-sensitive C-reactive protein (medians 1.0 mg/l vs. 0.4 mg/l, P < 0.001), glycated hemoglobin (6.1 +/- 0.9 vs. 5.7 +/- 0.8%, P= 0.028) and triglycerides (medians 0.9 vs. 0.8 mmol/l, P= 0.031). Finally, this group showed lower levels of total and high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol. After multivariate analysis, increased cIMT was positively associated with stavudine use [odds ratio (OR): 18.9, P=0.005], left atrial/aorta index (OR: 15.6, P=0.019), suprailiac skinfold (OR: 7.9, P=0.019), tachypnea (OR: 5.9, P=0.031), CD8 lymphocyte count (OR: 5.7, P=0.033) and CD4 T-lymphocyte count (OR: 5.5, P=0.025). cIMT increment was negatively associated with total cholesterol (OR: 0.2, P=0.025) and with CD8 zenith (OR: 0.1, P=0.007). Conclusion In this sample of children and adolescents, having HIV infection was associated with increased cIMT and elevated prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors. These findings suggest that this group should be included in cardiovascular prevention programs.

European ancestry and polymorphisms in DNA repair genes modify the risk of melanoma: A case-control study in a high UV index region in Brazil

Background: UV radiation is the major environmental factor related to development of cutaneous melanoma. Besides sun exposure and the influence of latitude, some host characteristics such as skin phototype and hair and eye color are also risk factors for melanoma. Polymorphisms in DNA repair genes could be good candidates for susceptibility genes, mainly in geographical regions exposed to high solar radiation. Objective: Evaluate the role of host characteristic.; and DNA repair polymorphism in melanoma risk in Brazil. Methods: We carried out a hospital-based case-control study in Brazil to evaluate the contribution of host factors and polymorphisms in DNA repair to melanoma risk. A total of 412 patients (202 with melanoma and 210 controls) were analyzed regarding host characteristics for melanoma risk as well as for 11 polymorphisms in DNA repair genes. Results: We found an association of host characteristics with melanoma development, such as eye and hair color, fair skin, history of pigmented lesions removed, sunburns in childhood and adolescence, and also European ancestry. Regarding DNA repair gene polymorphisms, we found protection for the XPG 1104 His/His genotype (OR 0.32; 95% CI 0.13-0.75), and increased risk for three polymorphisms in the XPC gene (PAT+; IV-6A and 939Gln), which represent a haplotype for XPC. Melanoma risk was higher in individuals carrying the complete XPC haplotype than each individual polymorphism (OR 3.64; 95% CI 1.77-7.48). Conclusions: Our data indicate that the host factors European ancestry and XPC polymorphisms contributed to melanoma risk in a region exposed to high sun radiation. (C) 2011 Japanese Society for Investigative Dermatology. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Dynamic Model of Hand-and-Foot Syndrome in Patients Receiving Capecitabine

For the purpose of developing a longitudinal model to predict hand-and-foot syndrome (HFS) dynamics in patients receiving capecitabine, data from two large phase III studies were used. Of 595 patients in the capecitabine arms, 400 patients were randomly selected to build the model, and the other 195 were assigned for model validation. A score for risk of developing HFS was modeled using the proportional odds model, a sigmoidal maximum effect model driven by capecitabine accumulation as estimated through a kinetic-pharmacodynamic model and a Markov process. The lower the calculated creatinine clearance value at inclusion, the higher was the risk of HFS. Model validation was performed by visual and statistical predictive checks. The predictive dynamic model of HFS in patients receiving capecitabine allows the prediction of toxicity risk based on cumulative capecitabine dose and previous HFS grade. This dose-toxicity model will be useful in developing Bayesian individual treatment adaptations and may be of use in the clinic.

Development of an IgG4-Based Predictor of Endemic Pemphigus Foliaceus (Fogo Selvagem)

Fogo selvagem (FS) is mediated by pathogenic, predominantly IgG4, anti-desmoglein 1 (Dsg1) autoantibodies and is endemic in Limao Verde, Brazil. IgG and IgG subclass autoantibodies were tested in a sample of 214 FS patients and 261 healthy controls by Dsg1 ELISA. For model selection, the sample was randomly divided into training (50%), validation (25%), and test (25%) sets. Using the training and validation sets, IgG4 was chosen as the best predictor of FS, with index values above 6.43 classified as FS. Using the test set, IgG4 has sensitivity of 92% (95% confidence interval (95% CI): 82-95%), specificity of 97% (95% CI: 89-100%), and area under the curve of 0.97 ( 95% CI: 0.94-1.00). The IgG4 positive predictive value (PPV) in Limao Verde (3% FS prevalence) was 49%. The sensitivity, specificity, and PPV of IgG anti-Dsg1 were 87, 91, and 23%, respectively. The IgG4-based classifier was validated by testing 11 FS patients before and after clinical disease and 60 Japanese pemphigus foliaceus patients. It classified 21 of 96 normal individuals from a Limao Verde cohort as having FS serology. On the basis of its PPV, half of the 21 individuals may currently have preclinical FS and could develop clinical disease in the future. Identifying individuals during preclinical FS will enhance our ability to identify the etiological agent(s) triggering FS.

Influence of ankle functional instability on the ankle electromyography during landing after volleyball blocking

The purpose of this study was to describe, interpret and compare the EMG activation patterns of ankle muscles - tibialis anterior (TA), peroneus longus (PL) and gastrocnemius lateralis (GL) - in volleyball players with and without ankle functional instability (FI) during landing after the blocking movement. Twenty-one players with FI (IG) and 19 controls (CG) were studied. The cycle of movement analyzed was the time period between 200 ms before and 200 ms after the time of impact determined by ground reaction forces. The variables were analyzed for two different phases: pre-landing (200 ms before impact) and post-landing (200 ms after impact). The RMS values and the timing of onset activity were calculated for the three studied muscles, in both periods and for both groups. The co-activation index for TA and PL, TA and GL were also calculated. Individuals with FI presented a lower RMS value pre-landing for PL (CG = 43.0 perpendicular to 22.0; IG = 26.2 perpendicular to 8.4, p < 0.05) and higher RMS value post-landing (CG = 47.5 perpendicular to 13.3; IG = 55.8 perpendicular to 21.6, p < 0.10). Besides that, in control group PL and GL activated first and simultaneously, and TA presented a later activation, while in subjects with FI all the three muscles activated simultaneously. There were no significant differences between groups for co-activation index. Thus, the rate of contraction between agonist and antagonist muscles is similar for subjects with and without FI but the activation individually was different. Volleyball players with functional instability of the ankle showed altered patterns of the muscles that play an important role in the stabilization of the foot-ankle complex during the performance of the blocking movement, to the detriment of the ligament complex, and this fact could explain the usual complaints in these subjects. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of nutritional risk screening tools for predicting clinical outcomes in hospitalized patients

Objective: International nutritional screening tools are recommended for screening hospitalized patients for nutritional risk, but no tool has been specifically evaluated in the Brazilian population. The aim of this study was to identify the most appropriate nutritional screening tool for predicting unfavorable clinical outcomes in patients admitted to a Brazilian public university hospital. Methods: The Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 (NRS 2002), Mini-Nutritional Assessment-Short Form (MNA-SF), and Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool (MUST) were administered to 705 patients within 48 h of hospital admission. Tool performance in predicting complications, very long length of hospital stay (LOS), and death was analyzed using receiver operating characteristic curves. Results: NRS 2002, MUST, and MNA-SF identified nutritional risk in 27.9%, 39.6%, and 73.2% of the patients, respectively. NRS 2002 (complications: 0.6531; very long LOS: 0.6508; death: 0.7948) and MNA-SF(complications: 0.6495; very long LOS: 0.6197; death: 0.7583) had largest areas under the ROC curve compared to MUST (complications: 0.6036; very long LOS: 0.6109; death: 0.6363). For elderly patients, NRS 2002 was not significantly different than MNA-SF (P>0.05) for predicting outcomes. Conclusion: Considering current criteria for nutritional risk, NRS 2002 and MNA-SF have similar performance to predict outcomes but NRS 2002 seems to provide a best yield. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Comparison of the Consensus and Clinical Definitions of Pancreatitis With a Proposal to Redefine Post-Endoscopic Retrograde Cholangiopancreatography Pancreatitis

Objectives: We evaluated the correlation between the consensus and clinical definitions of pancreatitis following endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP), with the objective of updating and revising the definition of post-ERCP pancreatitis (PEP). Methods: Three hundred patients were subjected to serial serum amylase & lipase levels testing and abdominal computed tomography scan for abdominal pain after ERCP. Main outcome measures included the correlation between consensus and clinical definitions. Results: Using consensus criteria, 25 patients had acute pancreatitis (11 of mild and 14 of moderate severity). Forty-three patients had acute pancreatitis using the clinical definitions (18 of mild and 25 of moderate severity). At 4 hours, serum hyperamylasemia of under 1.5-fold and at 12 hours a serum hyperamylasemia of under 2-fold had a negative predictive value of 0.94 for development of PEP. Serum hyperamylasemia following ERCP had a poor positive predictive value for PEP. Conclusions: Clinical and consensus definitions are poorly correlated; use of the latter leads to significant underrecognition of PEP. The adoption of clinical definition results in uniformity of diagnosis of pancreatitis for clinical care and research. Serum amylase levels at 4 and 12 hours after ERCP have a high negative predictive value for PEP.

Long-Term Nutritional Outcome After Gastric Bypass

Weight loss and nutritional status 5 or more years after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass was prospectively documented. The hypothesis was that even after clinical adaptation, imbalances might still occur. Seventy-five consecutive patients (age 49.3 +/- 10.6 years, 89.3% females) were recruited 83.4 +/- 14.3 months after the intervention. Weight loss and nutritional abnormalities were registered. Body mass index (BMI) was 56.5 +/- 10.0 preoperatively, 29.4 +/- 6. 2 by 24 months and 34.4 +/- 14.6 when last seen. Major current deficit occurred for magnesium (32.1% of the patients), hemoglobin (50.8%), iron (29.8%), ferritin (36.0%), zinc (40.5%), vitamin B(12) (61.8%), vitamin D(3) (60.5%), and beta-carotene (56.8%). Low preoperative measurements had already been unveiled for iron, transferrin, zinc, and vitamin B(12). Total drug consumption tended to decrease after operation, and present findings correlated with excess weight loss (EWL). Also presence of diabetes and BMI value were predictors of long-term EWL, along with biochemical profile by 2 years. Multivitamin supplementation and gastrointestinal complaints partially correlated with nutritional results. (1) Good initial weight loss with moderate late regain, anemia, and multiple nutrient deficits was the common pattern. (2) Massive weight loss, frequent vomiting, dumping syndrome, and women in reproductive age were risk factors for hemoglobin or vitamin deficits, whereas superobesity, diabetes, and use of multiple drugs were associated with EWL result. (3) Most laboratory tests became stable by 2 years and along with BMI correlated with late EWL. (4) Two-year nutritional investigation is especially recommended because of its long-term predictive value.

Screening Anal Dysplasia in HIV-Infected Patients: Is There an Agreement Between Anal Pap Smear and High-Resolution Anoscopy-Guided Biopsy?

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to analyze the agreement between anal Pap smear and high-resolution anoscopy-guided biopsy in diagnosing anal dysplasia in HIV-infected patients. METHODS: We conducted cross-sectional analysis of HIV-infected patients receiving anal dysplasia screening as part of routine care. Agreement between measures was estimated by weighted kappa statistics, using a three-tiered cytologic and histologic grading system (normal, low-grade dysplasia, and high-grade dysplasia). Estimates of sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values were calculated using a two-tiered cytologic and histologic grading system (""without dysplasia"" and ""with dysplasia of any grade""). Estimates were also calculated for the detection of high-grade dysplasia. RESULTS: During a one-year period, 222 patients underwent 330 anal Pap smears followed by high-resolution anoscopy-guided biopsies. There were 311 satisfactory Pap smears with concurrent biopsies. Considering histology the standard, the frequency of anal dysplasia was 46%. Kappa agreement between anal Pap smear and biopsy was 0.20. For detection of anal dysplasia of any grade, anal Pap smear showed sensitivity of 61%, specificity of 60%, positive predictive value of 56%, and negative predictive value of 64%. For high-grade dysplasia, anal Pap smear showed sensitivity of 16% and specificity of 97%. CONCLUSION: Anal Pap smears alone were not sensitive enough to rule out anal dysplasia. We recommend that high-resolution anoscopy-guided biopsy be incorporated as a complementary screening test for anal dysplasia in high-risk patients. Following baseline high-resolution anoscopy, these individuals could be followed with serial anal cytology to dictate the need for future high-resolution anoscopy-guided biopsies.

Preoperative Gastric Acid Secretion and the Risk to Develop Barrett`s Esophagus After Esophagectomy for Chagasic Achalasia

The aim of this study was to determine the contribution of preoperative gastric secretory and hormonal response, to the appearance of Barrett`s esophagus in the esophageal stump following subtotal esophagectomy. Thirty-eight end-stage chagasic achalasia patients submitted to esophagectomy and cervical gastric pull-up were followed prospectively for a mean of 13.6 +/- 9.2 years. Gastric acid secretion, pepsinogen, and gastrin were measured preoperatively in 14 patients who have developed Barrett`s esophagus (Group I), and the results were compared to 24 patients who did not develop Barrett`s esophagus (Group II). In the group (I), the mean basal and stimulated preoperative gastric acid secretion was significantly higher than in the group II (basal: 1.52 vs. 1.01, p = 0.04; stimulated: 20.83 vs. 12.60, p = 0.01). Basal and stimulated preoperative pepsinogen were also increased at the Group I compared to Group II (Basal = 139.3 vs. 101.7, p = 0.02; stimulated = 186.0 vs. 156.5, p = 0.07. There was no difference in preoperative gastrin between the two groups. Gastritis was present during endoscopy in 57.1% of the Group I, while it was detected in 16.6% of the Group II, p = 0.014. Barrett`s esophagus in the esophageal stump was associated to high preoperative levels of gastric acid secretion, serum pepsinogen, and also gastritis in the transposed stomach.

The prognostic value of CD147/EMMPRIN is associated with monocarboxylate transporter 1 co-expression in gastric cancer

The aim of the present work was to assess the role of monocarboxylate transporters (MCTs), namely MCT1 and MCT4 as well as MCT/CD147 co-expression in gastric tissues and evaluate their clinico-pathological significance in gastric carcinoma. For that, we analysed the immunohistochemical expression of MCT1, MCT4 and CD147, in a large series of gastric samples, including non-neoplastic, tumour and metastatic tissues. A significant decrease in MCT4 plasma membrane expression was observed from non-neoplastic to gastric primary malignant tissues and to lymph-node metastasis and both MCT1 and MCT4 correlated with CD147. Importantly, both MCT4 and CD147 were more frequently expressed in Lauren`s intestinal-type tumours and MCT1/CD147 co-expression was associated with advanced gastric carcinoma, Lauren`s intestinal type, TNM staging and lymph-node metastasis. Our results showed that the prognostic value of CD147 was associated with MCTI co-expression in gastric cancer cells, supporting the view that CD147 plasma membrane activity is dependent on MCT co-expression. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Differences Between ""Classical"" Risk Factors for Infections Caused by Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and Risk Factors for Nosocomial Bloodstream Infections Caused by Multiple Clones of the Staphylococcal Cassette Chromosome mec Type IV MRSA Strain

OBJECTIVE. To identify risk factors associated with nosocomial bloodstream infections caused by multiple clones of the staphylococcal cassette chromosome mec (SCCmec) type IV strain of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA). DESIGN. An unmatched case-control study (at a ratio of 1 : 2) performed during the period from October 2002 through September 2003. SETTING. A 2,000-bed tertiary care teaching hospital affiliated with the University of Sao Paulo in Sao Paulo, Brazil. METHODS. Case patients (n = 30) were defined either as patients who had a bloodstream infection due to SCCmec type IV strains of MRSA diagnosed at least 48 hours after hospital admission or as neonates with the infection who were born in the hospital. Control patients (n = 60) were defined as patients with SCCmec type III MRSA infection diagnosed at least 48 hours after hospital admission. Genes n = 60 encoding virulence factors were studied in the isolates recovered from case patients, and molecular typing of the SCCmec type IV MRSA isolates was also done by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis and multilocus sequence typing. RESULTS. In multivariate analysis, the following 3 variables were significantly associated with having a nosocomial bloodstream infection caused by SCCmec type IV strains of MRSA: an age of less than 1 year, less frequent use of a central venous catheter (odds ratio [OR], 0.07 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 0.02-0.28]; P = .001), and female sex. A second analysis was performed that excluded the case and Pp. 001 control patients from the neonatal unit, and, in multivariate analysis, the following variables were significantly associated with having a nosocomial bloodstream infection caused by SCCmec type IV strains of MRSA: less frequent use of a central venous catheter (OR, 0.12 [95% CI, 0.03-0.55]; P = .007), lower Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score on admission (OR, 0.14 [95% CI, 0.03-0.61];), less frequent surgery (OR, 0.21 [95% CI, 0.06-0.83];), and female sex (OR, 5.70 [95% CI, 1.32-24.66]; P =.020). P = .009 Pp. 025 Pp). Of the 29 SCCmec type IV MRSA isolates recovered from case patients, none contained the Panton-Valentine leukocidin, gamma-hemolysin, enterotoxin B or C, or toxic shock syndrome toxin-1. All of the isolates contained genes for the LukE-LukD leukocidin and alpha-hemolysin. Genes for enterotoxin A were present in 1 isolate, and genes for beta-hemolysin were present in 3 isolates. CONCLUSIONS. ""Classical"" risk factors do not apply to patients infected with the SCCmec type IV strain of MRSA, which is an important cause of nosocomial bacteremia. This strain infects a patient population that is less ill and has had less frequent invasive procedures than a patient population infected with the multidrug-resistant strain of SCCmec type III MRSA. We found that virulence factors were rare and that Panton-Valentine leukocidin was absent. There were multiple clones of the SCCmec type IV strain in our hospital. Children under 1 year of age were at a higher risk. There was a predominant clone ( sequence type 5) in this patient population.

Prevalence of, and risk factors for Kaposi`s sarcoma-associated herpesvirus infection among blood donors in Brazil: A multi-center serosurvey

Kaposi`s sarcoma-associated herpesvirus (KSHV) is endemic in the Amazon and rare in southern regions of Brazil. However, geographical distribution and epidemiological correlates of infection in this large country are still poorly defined. To estimate the seroprevalence of, and risk factors for, KSHV infection in Brazil, a multi-center study was conducted among 3,493 first-time voluntary unpaid blood donors from Salvador, Sao Paulo and Manaus. Antibodies against KSHV were detected using a whole-virus ELISA validated prior to the serosurvey. Antibodies against the latency-associated nuclear antigen (LANA) were detected by immuno-fluorescence assay (IFA) among ELISA-positive sera and a random sample of ELISA-negative sera. Overall, seroprevalence of KSHV by whole-virus ELISA was 21.7% (95% confidence interval (Cl): 20-23.4%) in men and 31.7% (95% Cl: 29-34.3%) in women (P<0.0001). KSHV antibodies were detected by IFA-LANA in 3% (95% Cl: 2-4.3%) of 867 ELISA-positive samples and in none of 365 randomly selected ELISA-negative samples. In multivariate analysis, KSHV seroprevalence by whole-virus ELISA was independently associated with female sex (odds ratio [OR] = 1.6, 95% Cl: 1.4-1.9); residence in the Amazon (OR = 1.4, 95% Cl: 1.2-1.8; compared to Salvador); Caucasian ethnicity (OR = 1.3, 95% Cl: 1.1-1.6) and herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) infection (OR = 1.3, 95% Cl: 1.1-1.6). KSHV seroprevalence did not significantly increase with age, nor was it associated with self-reported sexual behavior. KSHV seroprevalence is high among Brazilian blood donors, particularly from the Amazon region. This study supports the co-existence of sexual and non-sexual routes of KSHV transmission in this population.