Approximate algorithms for credal networks with binary variables

This paper presents a family of algorithms for approximate inference in credal networks (that is, models based on directed acyclic graphs and set-valued probabilities) that contain only binary variables. Such networks can represent incomplete or vague beliefs, lack of data, and disagreements among experts; they can also encode models based on belief functions and possibilistic measures. All algorithms for approximate inference in this paper rely on exact inferences in credal networks based on polytrees with binary variables, as these inferences have polynomial complexity. We are inspired by approximate algorithms for Bayesian networks; thus the Loopy 2U algorithm resembles Loopy Belief Propagation, while the Iterated Partial Evaluation and Structured Variational 2U algorithms are, respectively, based on Localized Partial Evaluation and variational techniques. (C) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

On the use of correlated beta random variables with animal population modelling

We give reasons why demographic parameters such as survival and reproduction rates are often modelled well in stochastic population simulation using beta distributions. In practice, it is frequently expected that these parameters will be correlated, for example with survival rates for all age classes tending to be high or low in the same year. We therefore discuss a method for producing correlated beta random variables by transforming correlated normal random variables, and show how it can be applied in practice by means of a simple example. We also note how the same approach can be used to produce correlated uniform triangular, and exponential random variables. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The influence of environmental variables on capybara (Hydrochoerus hydrochaeris: Rodentia, Hydrochoeridae) detectability in anthropogenic environments of southeastern Brazil

Capybaras were monitored weekly from 1998 to 2006 by counting individuals in three anthropogenic environments (mixed agricultural fields, forest and open areas) of southeastern Brazil in order to examine the possible influence of environmental variables (temperature, humidity, wind speed, precipitation and global radiation) on the detectability of this species. There was consistent seasonality in the number of capybaras in the study area, with a specific seasonal pattern in each area. Log-linear models were fitted to the sample counts of adult capybaras separately for each sampled area, with an allowance for monthly effects, time trends and the effects of environmental variables. Log-linear models containing effects for the months of the year and a quartic time trend were highly significant. The effects of environmental variables on sample counts were different in each type of environment. As environmental variables affect capybara detectability, they should be considered in future species survey/monitoring programs.

Optimal irrigation depth for bean crops considering water constraints and farmer`s risk aversion level

Nowadays, the rising competition for the use of water and environmental resources with consequent restrictions for farmers should change the paradigm in terms of irrigation concepts, or rather, in order to attain economical efficiency other than to supply water requirement for the crop. Therefore, taking into account the social and economical role of bean activity in Brazil, as well as the risk inherent to crop due to its high sensibility to both deficit and excessive water, the optimization methods regarding to irrigation management have become more interesting and essential. This study intends to present a way to determine the optimal water supply, considering different combinations between desired bean yield and level of risk, bringing as a result a graph with the former associated with the latter, depending on different water depths.

Bayesian ratemaking procedure of crop insurance contracts with skewed distribution

Over the years, crop insurance programs became the focus of agricultural policy in the USA, Spain, Mexico, and more recently in Brazil. Given the increasing interest in insurance, accurate calculation of the premium rate is of great importance. We address the crop-yield distribution issue and its implications in pricing an insurance contract considering the dynamic structure of the data and incorporating the spatial correlation in the Hierarchical Bayesian framework. Results show that empirical (insurers) rates are higher in low risk areas and lower in high risk areas. Such methodological improvement is primarily important in situations of limited data.

ECONOMICAL OCCUPATION OF AGRICULTURAL AREA OF PIRACICABA (SAO PAULO STATE, BRAZIL), INCLUDING RISK THROUGH LINEAR PROGRAMMING

The economic occupation of an area of 500 ha for Piracicaba was studied with the irrigated cultures of maize, tomato, sugarcane and beans, having used models of deterministic linear programming and linear programming including risk for the Target-Motad model, where two situations had been analyzed. In the deterministic model the area was the restrictive factor and the water was not restrictive for none of the tested situations. For the first situation the gotten maximum income was of R$ 1,883,372.87 and for the second situation it was of R$ 1,821,772.40. In the model including risk a producer that accepts risk can in the first situation get the maximum income of R$ 1,883,372. 87 with a minimum risk of R$ 350 year(-1), and in the second situation R$ 1,821,772.40 with a minimum risk of R$ 40 year(-1). Already a producer averse to the risk can get in the first situation a maximum income of R$ 1,775,974.81 with null risk and for the second situation R$ 1.707.706, 26 with null risk, both without water restriction. These results stand out the importance of the inclusion of the risk in supplying alternative occupations to the producer, allowing to a producer taking of decision considered the risk aversion and the pretension of income.

Spatio-temporal modeling of agricultural yield data with an application to pricing crop insurance contracts

This article presents a statistical model of agricultural yield data based on a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that allows joint modeling of temporal and spatial autocorrelation. This method captures a comprehensive range of the various uncertainties involved in predicting crop insurance premium rates as opposed to the more traditional ad hoc, two-stage methods that are typically based on independent estimation and prediction. A panel data set of county-average yield data was analyzed for 290 counties in the State of Parana (Brazil) for the period of 1990 through 2002. Posterior predictive criteria are used to evaluate different model specifications. This article provides substantial improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to situations where data are limited.

CORRELATION BETWEEN FLOWERING, FRUCTIFICATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL VARIABLES IN Solanum lycocarpum A. St.-Hil, SOLANACEAE

Solanum lycocarpum (lobeira) is a typical and abundant species of brazilian Cerrado, which occupies mainly surrounding disturbed areas. It has interesting characteristics from the point of view of reproductive biology, that probably are favoring the large occupation of habitats by the species. Based on the fact that the species produces flowers and fruit during all the year, the present study had the purpose to verify the association between flower and fruit production with environmental variables (temperature, relative humidity and precipitation), aiming to support future studies referring to reproductive biology and ecology of plant species from Cerrado biome. A population of S. lycocarpum composed of 34 plants in reproductive phase, situated in Morrinhos, south of the State of Goias, Brazil,, was evaluated. All the plants were geographically referenced with a GPS receptor. Observations were made monthly during 13 months (June, 2005 to July, 2006) quantifying open flowers and fruits produced in the intervals between the observations. It was possible suggest high conversion of flowers in fruits. The Spearman rank correlation showed positive correlation of flower number with precipitation and relative humidity. Fruit number was not correlated with the environmental variables.

Influence of a probiotic soy product on fecal microbiota and its association with cardiovascular risk factors in an animal model

Background: Previous work showed that daily ingestion of an aqueous soy extract fermented with Enterococcus faecium CRL 183 and Lactobacillus helveticus 416, supplemented or not with isoflavones, reduced the total cholesterol and non-HDL-cholesterol levels, increased the high-density lipoprotein (HDL) concentration and inhibited the raising of autoantibody against oxidized low-density lipoprotein (ox-LDL Ab) and the development of atherosclerotic lesions. Objective: The aim of this study was to characterize the fecal microbiota in order to investigate the possible correlation between fecal microbiota, serum lipid parameters and atherosclerotic lesion development in rabbits with induced hypercholesterolemia, that ingested the aqueous soy extract fermented with Enterococcus faecium CRL 183 and Lactobacillus helveticus 416. Methods: The rabbits were randomly allocated to five experimental groups (n = 6): control (C), hypercholesterolemic (H), hypercholesterolemic plus unfermented soy product (HUF), hypercholesterolemic plus fermented soy product (HF) and hypercholesterolemic plus isoflavone-supplemented fermented soy product (HIF). Lipid parameters and microbiota composition were analyzed on days 0 and 60 of the treatment and the atherosclerotic lesions were quantified at the end of the experiment. The fecal microbiota was characterized by enumerating the Lactobacillus spp., Bifidobacterium spp., Enterococcus spp., Enterobacteria and Clostridium spp. populations. Results: After 60 days of the experiment, intake of the probiotic soy product was correlated with significant increases (P < 0.05) on Lactobacillus spp., Bifidobacterium spp. and Enterococcus spp. and a decrease in the Enterobacteria population. A strong correlation was observed between microbiota composition and lipid profile. Populations of Enterococcus spp., Lactobacillus spp. and Bifidobacterium spp. were negatively correlated with total cholesterol, non-HDL-cholesterol, autoantibodies against oxidized LDL (ox-LDL Ab) and lesion size. HDL-C levels were positively correlated with Lactobacillus spp., Bifidobacterium spp., and Enterococcus spp. populations. Conclusion: In conclusion, daily ingestion of the probiotic soy product, supplemented or not with isoflavones, may contribute to a beneficial balance of the fecal microbiota and this modulation is associated with an improved cholesterol profile and inhibition of atherosclerotic lesion development.

Screening of Variables Influencing the Clavulanic Acid Production by Streptomyces DAUFPE 3060 Strain

Clavulanic acid (CA) is a beta-lactam antibiotic, which has a potent beta-lactamase inhibiting activity. The influence of five variables, namely pH (6.0, 6.4, and 6.8), temperature (28A degrees C, 30A degrees C, and 32A degrees C), agitation intensity (150, 200, and 250 rpm), glycerol concentration (5.0, 7.5, and 10 g/L) and soybean flour concentration (5.0, 12.5, and 20 g/L), on CA production by a new isolate of Streptomyces (DAUFPE 3060) was investigated in 250-mL Erlenmeyer flasks using a fractional factorial design. Temperature and soybean flour concentration were shown to be the two variables that exerted the most important effects on the production of CA at 95% confidence level. The highest CA concentration (494 mg/L) was obtained after 48 h at 150 rpm, 32A degrees C, pH 6.0, 5.0 g/L glycerol, and 20 g/L soybean flour concentrations. Under these conditions, the yields of biomass and product on consumed substrate were 0.26 g(X)/g(S) and 64.3 mg(P)/g(S), respectively. Fermentations performed in 3.0-L bench-scale fermenter allowed increasing the CA production by about 60%.

Effect of process variables on fluiddynamics and adhesion efficiency during spouted bed coating of hard gelatine capsules

This article presents an evaluation of the effects of the spouted bed design and operating conditions on system fluiddynamics and process performance during enteric coating of hard gelatine capsules. The design parameters studied were the column diameter (150 mm and 200 mm), the included angle of the conical base, gamma (60 degrees or 40 degrees) and the presence or absence of a Venturi inserted before the inlet air orifice. The process variables studied were the ratio between the feed flow rate of the coating suspension to the spouting gas flow rate (W(s)/W(g)), the mass of capsules loaded to the equipment (M(0)), and the ratio between the Spouting gas flow rate to the gas flow rate at minimum spouting condition (Q/Q(ms)). The response variables were the rate of increase of the capsules mass (K(1)), and the adhesion efficiency (eta). The linear regression equation for the dependent variable K, in terms of the independent variables adequately described the process with an r(2) value of 0.872. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) revealed that increasing of W(s)/W(g), Q/Q(ms) and gamma significantly increased the adhesion efficiency. Adhesion efficiencies higher than 90% were achieved by selecting precise coating conditions, indicating the feasibility of the process for coating of hard gelatine capsules. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

W/O/W multiple emulsions obtained by one-step emulsification method and evaluation of the involved variables

The effects of some composition variables on the development of multiple emulsions by one-step method were evaluated and their morphology characterized. The formulations that remained stable during the period of the test were submitted to centrifugation and thermal stress tests. The stability and the morphology of multiple droplets were affected not only by the type and concentration of the surfactants employed, but also by the water/oil ratios used. The results suggest that the formation of multiple droplets could involve a combination of transitional and catastrophic phase inversions. The results provide improved knowledge about the one-step emulsification method, a simplified process to prepare multiple emulsions when compared to the two-steps method.

Impact of the Subprime Crisis in the Provision of Credit Risk of Major National Banks

Financial institutions are directly exposed to the credit risk, that is, the risk of the borrower not fulfill with their obligations, paying their debts in its stated periods established previously. The bank predict this type of risk, including them in their balance-sheets. In 2006/2007 there was the impact of a new financial crisis that spread around the world, known as the crisis of subprime. The objective of this study is to analyze if the provisions for credit risk or liquidation increased the sprouting of the crisis of subprime in ten major national banks, chosen accordant to their total assets. To answer this question, the balance-sheets of each one of these banks in the period of 2005 to 2007 were analyzed. This research is characterized, as for its objectives, as descriptive and as for the procedures as documentary research. It is also characterized as having a qualitative approach. The results show that the crisis of subprime has caused little impact in the credit risk provision of the analyzed institutions. It was noticed a slight increase in the provision indicators at the peak of the crisis in 2006. These percentages were reduced in, 2007, probably reflecting the economic stability of Brazil and the stagnation of the crisis Of subprime in that year, at least in relation to in our country.

Pricing corporate bonds in Brazil: 2000 to 2004

This paper analyzes the factors that influence the issuing price of debentures in Brazil in the period from year 2000 to 2004, applying a factor model, in which exogenous variables explain return and price behavior. The variables in this study include: rating, choice of index, maturity, country risk, basic interest rate, long-term and short-term rate spread, the stock market index, and the foreign exchange rate. Results indicate that the index variable, probability of default and bond`s maturity influence pricing and points out associations of long-term bonds with better rating issues. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The economic determinants of the Brazilian nominal term structure of interest rates

The purpose of this study is to identify the effects of monetary policy and macroeconomic shocks on the dynamics of the Brazilian term structure of interest rates. We estimate a near-VAR model under the identification scheme proposed by Christiano et al. (1996, 1999). The results resemble those of the US economy: monetary policy shocks that flatten the term structure of interest rates. We find that monetary policy shocks in Brazil explain a significantly larger share of the dynamics of the term structure than in the USA. Finally, we analyse the importance of standard macroeconomic variables (e. g. GDP, inflation and measure of country risk) to the dynamics of the term structure in Brazil.