136 resultados para predictors


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Objectives: The link between obesity and endogenous estrogen with coronary artery disease (CAD) in postmenopausal women is uncertain. In this prospective study we analyzed the association of body mass index (BMI) and blood levels of estrone in postmenopausal women with known CAD or with a high risk factor score for CAD. Methods: Participants were 251 female clinic patients aged 50-90 years who were postmenopausal and not using estrogen therapy. Clinical and behavioral characteristics and fasting blood for estrone and heart disease risk factors were collected at baseline, and again at I and 2 years. Women were grouped according to their BMI (kg/m(2)) as normal (18.5 <= BMI < 25), overweight (25 <= BMI < 30) or obese (BMI >= 30), and by low and high estrone levels (< 15 and >= 15 pg/mL, respectively). Fatal and nonfatal events were recorded for 2 years after baseline. Results: Women with a low estrone level were older, thinner, and had less hypertension, diabetes, and lower triglyceride and glucose levels. BMI was positively associated with estrone levels, hypertension, and diabetes and inversely associated with HDL cholesterol. There were 14 deaths, 8 attributed to CAD. The Kaplan-Meier survival curve showed a nonsignificant trend (p = 0.074) of greater all cause mortality in women with low estrone levels (< 15 mL). In this model, adjusted for BMI, age [OR 1.08; p = 0.03], C-reactive protein [OR = 1.24; p = 0.024] and hypertension [OR = 6.22; p = 0.003] were independent predictors of all cause mortality. Conclusions: Postmenopausal women with low estrone levels (< 15 pg/mL) had a trend for increased mortality over the next 2 years. Larger, longer studies are needed. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Background. Clinical manifestations of dengue vary in different areas of endemicity and between specific age groups, whereas predictors of outcome have remained controversial. In Brazil, the disease burden predominantly affects adults, with an increasing trend toward progression to dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) noted. Methods. A cohort of adults with confirmed cases of dengue was recruited in central Brazil in 2005. Patients were classified according to the severity of their disease. Associations of antibody responses, viremia levels (as determined by real-time polymerase chain reaction [PCR]), and serotypes (as determined by multiplex PCR) with disease severity were evaluated. Results. Of the 185 symptomatic patients > 14 years of age who had a confirmed case of dengue, 26.5% and 23.2% were classified as having intermediate dengue fever (DF)/ DHF (defined as internal hemorrhage, plasma leakage, manifested signs of shock, and/ or thrombocytopenia [platelet count, <= 50,000 platelets/mm(3)]) and DHF, respectively. The onset of intermediate DF/ DHF and DHF occurred at a late stage of disease, around the period of defervescence. Patients with DHF had abnormal liver enzyme levels, with a > 3-fold increase in aspartate aminotransferase level, compared with the range of values considered to be normal. Overall, 65% of patients presented with secondary infections with dengue virus, with such infection occurring in similar proportions of patients in each of the 3 disease category groups. Dengue virus serotype 3 (DV3) was the predominant serotype, and viremia was detected during and after defervescence among patients with DHF or intermediate DF/ DHF. Conclusions. Viremia was detected after defervescence in adult patients classified as having DHF or intermediate DF/ DHF. Secondary infection was not a predictor of severe clinical manifestation in adults with infected with the DV3 serotype.

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Objective: To develop a model to predict the bleeding source and identify the cohort amongst patients with acute gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) who require urgent intervention, including endoscopy. Patients with acute GIB, an unpredictable event, are most commonly evaluated and managed by non-gastroenterologists. Rapid and consistently reliable risk stratification of patients with acute GIB for urgent endoscopy may potentially improve outcomes amongst such patients by targeting scarce health-care resources to those who need it the most. Design and methods: Using ICD-9 codes for acute GIB, 189 patients with acute GIB and all. available data variables required to develop and test models were identified from a hospital medical records database. Data on 122 patients was utilized for development of the model and on 67 patients utilized to perform comparative analysis of the models. Clinical data such as presenting signs and symptoms, demographic data, presence of co-morbidities, laboratory data and corresponding endoscopic diagnosis and outcomes were collected. Clinical data and endoscopic diagnosis collected for each patient was utilized to retrospectively ascertain optimal management for each patient. Clinical presentations and corresponding treatment was utilized as training examples. Eight mathematical models including artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), k-nearest neighbor, linear discriminant analysis (LDA), shrunken centroid (SC), random forest (RF), logistic regression, and boosting were trained and tested. The performance of these models was compared using standard statistical analysis and ROC curves. Results: Overall the random forest model best predicted the source, need for resuscitation, and disposition with accuracies of approximately 80% or higher (accuracy for endoscopy was greater than 75%). The area under ROC curve for RF was greater than 0.85, indicating excellent performance by the random forest model Conclusion: While most mathematical models are effective as a decision support system for evaluation and management of patients with acute GIB, in our testing, the RF model consistently demonstrated the best performance. Amongst patients presenting with acute GIB, mathematical models may facilitate the identification of the source of GIB, need for intervention and allow optimization of care and healthcare resource allocation; these however require further validation. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Objectives (1) Study the effectiveness of intravariceal injection of n-butyl-2-cyanoacrylate to treat acute gastric variceal (GV) bleeding and (2) study the impact of the type of GV and hepatic function on endoscopic hemostasis and mortality outcomes. Methods Fourty-eight patients with acute GV bleeding underwent intravariceal injection of n-butyl-2-cyanoacrylate and were followed until death or study conclusion (12-52 months). Results Primary hemostasis (no re-bleeding within 48 h) was accomplished in 42 patients (87.5%). Appearance of the bleeding site at the time of initial endoscopy, grade of cirrhosis and location of GV were not significant predictors of immediate hemostasis. Early re-bleeding (48 h to 6 weeks) occurred in 20.5% of patients and late re-bleeding (beyond 6 weeks) in 20.5% of patients. While the Child-Pugh score was predictive of re-bleeding and mortality, the type of GV and stigmata at initial endoscopy were not significant predictors of re-bleeding and mortality. Over a mean follow-up of 18 months, mortality rates were 43.9% and bleeding was the commonest cause of death. Conclusion Endoscopic injection of n-butyl-2-cyanoacrylate is effective and safe for treating bleeding GV. Patients with poor hepatic function are at higher risk of re-bleeding and death after acute gastric variceal bleed.

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In the present study, we evaluated the preoperative demographic, clinical, and neuropsychological variables that could predict postoperative seizure outcome in a group of pediatric epileptic patients. We studied 40 consecutive pediatric patients, ages ranging from 6 to 16 years, that underwent resective surgery for the treatment of medically intractable epilepsy at the Clinical Hospital of RibeirA o pound Preto School of Medicine. We performed ictal electroencephalography (EEG), interictal EEG, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and a preoperative neuropsychological assessment in the presurgical workup. The following factors were correlated with seizure outcome: (1) duration of epilepsy, (2) surgery localization, (3) localized Neuropsychological (NPS) Evaluation, (4) ictal EEG, (5) interictal EEG, and (6) MRI. Mental retardation, NPS tests, and the other demographic variables failed to correlate with seizure reduction. The identification of predictor variables of epilepsy surgery outcome could improve the epileptic prognosis and guarantee the children`s full potential development.

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Obesity has become a global epidemic and bariatric surgery is one of the therapeutic tools to deal with it. Postoperative complications can occur, such as staple line dehiscence and anastomotic leaks, leading to increased patient mortality. The diagnosis of these complications is frequently difficult. The objective of the present study was to determine whether peritoneal and systemic cytokines could early detect those complications. All patients who underwent open Roux-en-Y gastric bypass from February 2007 to August 2008 were prospectively evaluated. Blood and peritoneal effluent from the drain were collected for the determination of cytokine levels. We also evaluated the clinical signs and the leukograms of the patients. A total of 107 obese patients were studied. Ninety patients had no complications; 17 had at least one infectious complication which include five cases of staple line dehiscence. Until the third postoperative day, the vital signs and the leukogram did not predict the onset of infectious complications, but the cytokines (interleukin-1 beta and interleukin-6) were early markers of these complications. Cytokines are good predictors of poor postoperative evolution in bariatric surgery since peritoneal cytokines diagnose better these infectious complications even before changes in blood count and before the occurrence of clinical manifestations.

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Self-efficacy is defined as one`s belief that one can perform the necessary behaviors to achieve one`s goals. This belief is one of the most powerful motivational predictors of how well a person will perform at almost any endeavor. Limited information is available, however, about self-efficacy in the organ transplantation population. This study aimed to identify the self-efficacy belief among liver transplant candidates and recipients and compare these results with demographic characteristics. The authors analyzed 100 patients who were candidates and recipients for liver transplantation in a Brazilian center. The average self-efficacy score for the candidates was significantly lower than for the recipients. Future investigation is necessary to explore possible interventions to be taken before and after liver transplantation that could influence self-efficacy of the organ transplantation patients.

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BACKGROUND Hypertension, a risk factor for cardiovascular diseases, and obesity are becoming a health problem in many developed and developing countries, as Brazil. Although hypertension and obesity are both closely associated, there is no universal anthropometric marker of this association. This is probably due to distinct population characteristics, and in the case of Brazil, the highly heterogeneous population. We evaluated which anthropometric measurement closely relates to high blood pressure in a sample of Brazilian factory workers. METHODS A cross-sectional study was designed. In this study, multiple logistic regression and receiver operating characteristics analysis were performed in order to obtain the precise relevance of each anthropometric measurement as a blood pressure marker. Nine hundred and thirteen men, 36 +/- 8 years-old, were submitted to a standardized questionnaire of demographic and risk factors knowledge, anthropometric and conventional blood pressure measurements were taken, and blood sample evaluations of glucose, total cholesterol, LDL-Cholesterol, and triglycerides were performed. RESULTS Overweightness or obesity was identified in 64, 11.1% were smokers and hypertension was detected in 29.2% of the participants. A linear correlation was significant (P < 0.001) between both the systolic and diastolic blood pressure and all anthropometric measurements, except for the systolic blood pressure and waist-to-hip ratio. Waist circumference (WC) was the only independent anthropometric measurement related to hypertension. Hypertensive patients presented all anthropometric measurements larger than normotensives. CONCLUSIONS Age and WC were the only independent predictors of hypertension, indicating that this simple measurement may be useful as a marker of hypertension in the Brazilian male, younger adult population. Am J Hypertens 2009; 22:980-984 (C) 2009 American Journal of Hypertension, Ltd.

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This study aimed to evaluate the association between the differential gene expression profiling of peripheral blood mononuclear cells of rheumatoid arthritis patients with their immunogenetic (human leucocyte antigen shared-epitope, HLA-SE), autoimmune response [anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide (CCP) antibodies], disease activity score (DAS-28) and treatment (disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs and tumour necrosis factor blocker) features. Total RNA samples were copied into Cy3-labelled complementary DNA probes, hybridized onto a glass slide microarray containing 4500 human IMAGE complementary DNA target sequences. The Cy3-monocolour microarray images from patients were quantified and normalized. Analysis of the data using the significance analysis of microarrays algorithm together with a Venn diagram allowed the identification of shared and of exclusively modulated genes, according to patient features. Thirteen genes were exclusively associated with the presence of HLA-SE alleles, whose major biological function was related to signal transduction, phosphorylation and apoptosis. Ninety-one genes were associated with disease activity, being involved in signal transduction, apoptosis, response to stress and DNA damage. One hundred and one genes were associated with the presence of anti-CCP antibodies, being involved in signal transduction, cell proliferation and apoptosis. Twenty-eight genes were associated with tumour necrosis factor blocker treatment, being involved in intracellular signalling cascade, phosphorylation and protein transport. Some of these genes had been previously associated with rheumatoid arthritis pathogenesis, whereas others were unveiled for future research.

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BACKGROUND: Treatment of latent tuberculosis (TB) infection (LTBI) in Brazil is recommended only in the case of contacts of pulmonary smear-positive TB patients aged <= 15 years with a tuberculin skin test (TST) >= 10 mm and no previous bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccination or with a TST >= 15 mm regardless of previous BCG vaccination. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the 2-year incidence and predictors of TB among contacts who did not meet the Brazilian criteria for LTBI treatment. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. Contacts aged between 12 and 15 years and those aged >15 years who did not meet the Brazilian criteria for LTBI treatment were enrolled in the study. RESULTS: TB incidence was 3.2% (22/667), with an estimated TB rate of 1649 per 100000 population. Risk of TB was greater among the 349 contacts with TST >= 5 mm (5.4%) compared to the 318 contacts with TST <5 mm, (0.9%; RR 6.04, 95%CI 1.7-20.6). CONCLUSION: The high incidence of TB among contacts who did not meet the Brazilian criteria for LTBI treatment strongly suggests that these criteria should be reviewed. Furthermore, even among BCG-vaccinated contacts, TST induration >= 5 mm, was the only variable that predicted the development of TB disease within 2 years.

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Low birth weight and preterm birth, and social disadvantage may negatively affect mental health of children, but findings have been inconsistent. To assess the influence of perinatal and social factors on mental health problems in children aged 7-9 years. A random sample of 805 births in So Luis, Brazil was studied in 1997/1998 and again in 2005/2006. Perinatal, socioeconomic and demographic variables were assessed within 24 h after delivery. The Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) was used to assess mental health problems in the children. Simple and multiple Poisson regressions were used for statistical analysis. The overall prevalence of mental health problems in the total sample was 47.7%. The prevalences of emotional and conduct problems were 58.2 and 48.8%, respectively. Only paternal age (< 20 years) was associated with mental health problems as measured by the full SDQ scale (prevalence ratio PR = 1.27). Children born to single mothers (PR = 1.31) and those with birth weight from 1,500 to 2,499 g (PR = 1.18) and from 2,500 to 2,999 g (PR = 1.17) had a higher risk of emotional problems, but those from low income families had a lower risk (PR = 0.80). Children with a father of less than 20 years had a higher risk of having problems with their peers (PR = 1.75). A maternal education of 9 years or over was inversely associated with peer (PR = 0.70) and conduct problems (PR = 0.73). Girls had a lower risk of conduct (PR = 0.77) and hyperactivity problems (PR = 0.68). A maternal education of 4 years or less increased the risk of hyperactivity (PR = 1.48). Socioeconomic and demographic conditions were better predictors of mental health problems in children than birth weight or preterm birth. However, since most effect sizes were small most mental health problems were, unexplained by the variables in the study.

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Background Imunoglobulin (Ig) and T cell receptor (TCR) gene rearrangements function as specific markers for minimal residual disease (MRD) which is one of the best predictors of outcome in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) We recently reported on the prognostic value of MRD during the induction of remission through a simplified PCR method Here we report on gene rearrangement frequencies and offer guidelines for the application of the technique Procedure Two hundred thirty three children had DNA extracted from bone marrow Ig and TCR gene rearrangements were amplified using consensus primers and conventional PCR PCR products were submitted to homo/heteroduplex analysis A computer program was designed to define combinations of targets for clonal detection using a minimum set of primers and reactions Results At least one clonal marker could be detected in 98% of the patients and two markers in approximately 80% The most commonly rear ringed genes in precursor B cell ALL were IgH (75%) TCRD (59%) IgK (55%), and TCRG (54%) The most commonly rearranged genes for TALL were TCRG (100%) and TCRD (24%) The sensitivity of primers was limited to the detection of 1 leukemic cell among 100 normal cells Conclusions We propose that eight PCR reactions per ALL subtype would allow for the detection of two markers in most cases In addition these reactions ire suitable for MRD monitoring especially when aiming the selection of patients with high MRD levels (>= 10(-2)) at the end of induction therapy Such an approach would be very useful in centers with limited financial resources Pediatr Blood Cancer 2010 55 1278-1286 (C) 2010 Wiley Liss Inc

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Aim: To evaluate whether the ventricular septal defect (VSD) size, along with the degree of preoperative growth impairment and age at repair, may influence postoperative growth, and if VSD size can be useful to identify children at risk for preoperative failure to thrive. Methods: Sixty-eight children submitted to VSD repair in a Brazilian tertiary-care institution were evaluated. Weight and height measurements were converted to Z-scores. Ventricular septal defect size was normalized by dividing it by the aortic root diameter (VSD/Ao ratio). Results: Twenty-six patients (38%) had significantly low weight-for-height, 10 patients (15%) had significantly low height-for-age and 13 patients (19%) had both conditions at repair. Catch-up growth occurred in 82% of patients for weight-for-age, in 75% of patients for height-for-age and in 89% of patients for weight-for-height. Weight-for-height Z-scores at surgery were significantly lower in patients who underwent repair before 9 months of age. The VSD/Ao ratio did not associate with any other data. On multivariate analysis, weight-for-age Z-scores and age at surgery were independent predictors of long-term weight and height respectively. Conclusion: The VSD/Ao ratio was not a good predictor of preoperative failure to thrive. Most patients had preoperative growth impairment and presented catch-up growth after repair. Preoperative growth status and age at surgery influenced long-term growth.

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Low cardiac output syndrome (LCOS) is a common problem following cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) in neonates and infants, and its early recognition remains a challenging task. We aimed to test whether a multimarker approach combining inflammatory and cardiac markers provides complementary information for prediction of LCOS and death in children submitted to cardiac surgery with CPB. Forty-six children younger than 18 months with congenital heart defects were prospectively enrolled. No intervention was made. Blood samples were collected pre-operatively, during CPB and post-operatively (PO) for measurement of interleukin (IL)-6, IL-8, IL-10, tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-alpha, cardiac troponin I (cTnI) and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP). Clinical data and outcome variables were recorded. Logistic regression was used to identify predictors of LCOS and death. Multivariate logistic regression identified pre-operative NT-proBNP and IL-8 4 h PO as independent predictors of LCOS, while cTnI 4 h PO and CPB length were independent predictors of death. The use of inflammatory and cardiac markers in combination improved sensitivity, negative predictive value and accuracy of the models. In conclusion, the combined assessment of inflammatory and cardiac biochemical markers can be useful for identifying young children at increased risk for LCOS and death after heart surgery with CPB. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Background: The most primitive leukemic precursor in acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is thought to be the leukemic stem cell (LSC), which retains the properties of self-renewal and high proliferative capacity and quiescence of the hematopoietic stem cell. LSC seems to be immunophenotypically distinct and more resistant to chemotherapy than the more committed blasts. Considering that the multidrug resistance (MDR) constitutive expression may be a barrier to therapy in AML, we have investigated whether various MDR transporters were differentially expressed at the protein level by different leukemic subsets. Methods: The relative expression of the drug-efflux pumps P-gp, MRP, LRP, and BCRP was evaluated by mean fluorescence index (MFI) and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov analysis (D values) in five leukemic subpopulations: CD34(+)CD38(-)CD123(+) (LSCs), CD34(+)CD38(+)CD123(-), CD34(+)CD38(+)CD123(+), CD34(+)CD38(+)CD123(-), and CD34(-) mature cells in 26 bone marrow samples of CD34(+) AML cases. Results: The comparison between the two more immature subsets (LSC versus CD34(+)CD38(-)CD123(-) cells) revealed a higher P-gp, MRP, and LRP expression in LSCs. The comparative analysis between LSCs and subsets of intermediate maturation (CD34(+)CD38(+)) demonstrated the higher BCRP expression in the LSCs. In addition, P-gp expression was also significantly higher in the LSC compared to CD34(+)CD38(+)CD123(-) subpopulation. Finally, the comparative analysis between LSC and the most mature subset (CD34(-)) revealed higher MRP and LRP and lower P-gp expression in the LSCs. Conclusions: Considering the cellular heterogeneity of AML, the higher MDR transporters expression at the most immature, self-renewable, and quiescent LSC population reinforces that MDR is one of the mechanisms responsible for treatment failure. (C) 2008 Clinical Cytometry Society.