Risk-based decision making method for maintenance policy selection of thermal power plant equipment

This study presents a decision-making method for maintenance policy selection of power plants equipment. The method is based on risk analysis concepts. The method first step consists in identifying critical equipment both for power plant operational performance and availability based on risk concepts. The second step involves the proposal of a potential maintenance policy that could be applied to critical equipment in order to increase its availability. The costs associated with each potential maintenance policy must be estimated, including the maintenance costs and the cost of failure that measures the critical equipment failure consequences for the power plant operation. Once the failure probabilities and the costs of failures are estimated, a decision-making procedure is applied to select the best maintenance policy. The decision criterion is to minimize the equipment cost of failure, considering the costs and likelihood of occurrence of failure scenarios. The method is applied to the analysis of a lubrication oil system used in gas turbines journal bearings. The turbine has more than 150 MW nominal output, installed in an open cycle thermoelectric power plant. A design modification with the installation of a redundant oil pump is proposed for lubricating oil system availability improvement. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bending fatigue of stainless steel shear pins belonging to a hydroelectric plant

Coaracy Nunes was the first hydroelectric power plant in the Amazon region, being located in Araguari River, Amapa State, Brazil. The plant operates since 1976, presenting now a nominal capacity of 78 MW. The shear pins, which are installed in the turbine hydraulic arms to control the wicket gate and regulate the water flow into the turbine blades, suffered several breakdowns since 2004. These shear pins are made of an ASTM 410 stainless steel and were designed to break by a shear overload of 120 kN. Fractographic investigation of the pins, however, revealed two types of fracture topographies: a region of stable crack propagation area, with non-pronounced striation and secondary cracks; and a region of unstable propagation, featuring elongated dimples. These results indicated that the stable crack propagation occurred by fatigue (bidirectional bending), which was nucleated at machining marks under high nominal load. Finite element analysis was carried out using two loading conditions (pure shear and a combination of shear and bending) and the results indicated that the presence of a bending stress strongly increased the stress concentration factor (85% rise in the shear stress and 130% rise in the Von Mises stress). Misalignment during shear pins assembly associated with vibration might have promoted the premature failure of the shear by bending fatigue. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A hybrid commodity price-forecasting model applied to the sugar-alcohol sector

Accurate price forecasting for agricultural commodities can have significant decision-making implications for suppliers, especially those of biofuels, where the agriculture and energy sectors intersect. Environmental pressures and high oil prices affect demand for biofuels and have reignited the discussion about effects on food prices. Suppliers in the sugar-alcohol sector need to decide the ideal proportion of ethanol and sugar to optimise their financial strategy. Prices can be affected by exogenous factors, such as exchange rates and interest rates, as well as non-observable variables like the convenience yield, which is related to supply shortages. The literature generally uses two approaches: artificial neural networks (ANNs), which are recognised as being in the forefront of exogenous-variable analysis, and stochastic models such as the Kalman filter, which is able to account for non-observable variables. This article proposes a hybrid model for forecasting the prices of agricultural commodities that is built upon both approaches and is applied to forecast the price of sugar. The Kalman filter considers the structure of the stochastic process that describes the evolution of prices. Neural networks allow variables that can impact asset prices in an indirect, nonlinear way, what cannot be incorporated easily into traditional econometric models.

Water Treatment Plant Sludge Discharge to Wastewater Treatment Works: Effects on the Operation of Upflow Anaerobic Sludge Blanket Reactor and Activated Sludge Systems

This experiment examined the effects of the discharge of water treatment plant (WTP) sludge into the following three types of wastewater treatment systems: a pilot-scale upflow anaerobic sludge blanket (UASB) reactor, a pilot-scale activated sludge system, and a full-scale activated sludge sequencing batch reactor (SBR). The UASB reactor received 50 mg of suspended solids ( SS) of WTP sludge per liter of wastewater in the first phase, and, in the second phase, it received 75 mg SS/L. The pilot-scale activated sludge system received 25 and 50 mg SS/L in the first and second phases, respectively. The full-scale WWTP ( SBR) received approximately 74 mg SS/L. The results of the experiments showed that, despite some negative effects on nitrification, there were positive effects on phosphorus removal, and, furthermore, there was the addition of solids in all systems. Water Environ. Res., 82, 392 ( 2010).

Memory with emotional content, brain amygdala and Alzheimer`s disease

Objectives - A highly adaptive aspect of human memory is the enhancement of explicit, consciously accessible memory by emotional stimuli. We studied the performance of Alzheimer`s disease (AD) patients and elderly controls using a memory battery with emotional content, and we correlated these results with the amygdala and hippocampus volume. Methods - Twenty controls and 20 early AD patients were subjected to the International Affective Picture System (IAPS) and to magnetic resonance imaging-based volumetric measurements of the medial temporal lobe structures. Results - The results show that excluding control group subjects with 5 or more years of schooling, both groups showed improvement with pleasant or unpleasant figures for the IAPS in an immediate free recall test. Likewise, in a delayed free recall test, both the controls and the AD group showed improvement for pleasant pictures, when education factor was not controlled. The AD group showed improvement in the immediate and delayed free recall test proportional to the medial temporal lobe structures, with no significant clinical correlation between affective valence and amygdala volume. Conclusion - AD patients can correctly identify emotions, at least at this early stage, but this does not improve their memory performance.

Thermodynamic information system for diagnosis and prognosis of power plant operation condition

A thermodynamic information system for diagnosis and prognosis of an existing power plant was developed. The system is based on an analytic approach that informs the current thermodynamic condition of all cycle components, as well as the improvement that can be obtained in the cycle performance by the elimination of the discovered anomalies. The effects induced by components anomalies and repairs in other components efficiency, which have proven to be one of the main drawbacks in the diagnosis and prognosis analyses, are taken into consideration owing to the use of performance curves and corrected performance curves together with the thermodynamic data collected from the distributed control system. The approach used to develop the system is explained, the system implementation in a real gas turbine cogeneration combined cycle is described and the results are discussed. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of 7-Epiclusianone on Streptococcus mutans and Caries Development in Rats

The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of 7-epiclusianone (7-epi) on specific virulence attributes of Streptococcus mutans in vitro and on development of dental caries in vivo. 7-Epi was obtained and purified from fruits of Rheedia brasiliensis. We investigated its influence on surface-adsorbed glucosyltransferase (Gtf) B activity, acid production, and viability of S. mutans in biofilms, as well as on caries development using a rodent model. 7-Epi (100 mu g/mL) significantly reduced the activity of surface-adsorbed GtfB (up to 48.0 +/- 1.8 of inhibition at 100 mu g/mL) and glyco-lytic pH-drop by S. mutans in biofilms (125 and 250 mu g/mL) (vs. vehicle control, p < 0.05). In contrast, the test compound did not significantly affect the bacterial viability when compared to vehicle control (15% ethanol, p > 0.05). Wistar rats treated topically with 7-epi (twice daily, 60-s exposure) showed significantly smaller number of and less severe smooth-and sulcal-surface carious lesions (p < 0.05), without reducing the S. mutans viable population from the animals` dental biofilms. In conclusion, the natural compound 7-epiclusianone may be a potentially novel pharmacological agent to prevent and control dental caries disease.

Characterization of electrical penetration graphs of the Asian citrus psyllid, Diaphorina citri, in sweet orange seedlings

Detailed information on probing behavior of the Asian citrus psyllid, Diaphorina citri Kuwayama (Hemiptera: Psyllidae), is critical for understanding the transmission process of phloem-limited bacteria (Candidatus Liberibacter spp.) associated with citrus `huanglongbing` by this vector. In this study, we investigated stylet penetration activities of D. citri on seedlings of Citrus sinensis (L.) Osbeck cv. Pera (Rutaceae) by using the electrical penetration graph (EPG-DC system) technique. EPG waveforms were described based on amplitude, frequency, voltage level, and electrical origin of the observed traces during stylet penetration into plant tissues. The main waveforms were correlated with histological observations of salivary sheath termini in plant tissues, to determine the putative location of stylet tips. The behavioral activities were also inferred based on waveform similarities in relation to other Sternorrhyncha, particularly aphids and whiteflies. In addition, we correlated the occurrence of specific waveforms with the acquisition of the phloem-limited bacterium Ca. Liberibacter asiaticus by D. citri. The occurrence of a G-like xylem sap ingestion waveform in starved and unstarved psyllids was also compared. By analyzing 8-h EPGs of adult females, five waveforms were described: (C) salivary sheath secretion and other stylet pathway activities; (D) first contact with phloem (distinct from other waveforms reported for Sternorrhyncha); (E1) putative salivation in phloem sieve tubes; (E2) phloem sap ingestion; and (G) probably xylem sap ingestion. Diaphorina citri initiates a probe with stylet pathway through epidermis and parenchyma (C). Interestingly, no potential drops were observed during the stylet pathway phase, as are usually recorded in aphids and other Sternorrhyncha. Once in C, D. citri shows a higher propensity to return to non-probing than to start a phloem or xylem phase. Several probes are usually observed before the phloem phase; waveform D is observed upon phloem contact, always immediately followed by E1. After E1, D. citri either returns to pathway activity (C) or starts phloem sap ingestion, which was the longest activity observed.

Novel sources of witches` broom resistance (causal agent Moniliophthora perniciosa) from natural populations of Theobroma cacao from the Brazilian Amazon

Witches` broom is a severe disease of Theobroma cacao L. (cacao), caused by the basidiomycete Moniliophthora perniciosa. The use of resistant cultivars is the ultimate method of control, but there are limited sources of resistance. Further, resistance from the most widely used source (`Scavina 6`) has been overcome after a few years of deployment. New sources of resistance have been intensively searched for in the Amazon basin. Here, we evaluated for witches` broom resistance, cacao accessions from various natural cacao populations originally collected in the Brazilian Amazon. Resistance of 43 families was evaluated under nursery and/or field conditions by artificial or natural infection, respectively, based on disease incidence. Screening for resistance by artificial inoculation under nursery conditions appeared to be efficient in identifying these novel resistance sources, confirmed by natural field evaluation over a nine-year period. The increase in natural field infection of `Scavina 6` was clearly demonstrated. Among the evaluated families with the least witches` broom incidence, there were accessions originally collected from distinct river basins, including the Jamari river (`CAB 0371`; `CAB 0388`; `CAB 0392`; and `CAB 0410`); Acre (`CAB 0169`); Javari (`CAB 0352`); Solimes (`CAB 0270`); and from the Purus river basin, the two most outstanding resistant accessions, `CAB 0208` and `CAB 0214`. The large genetic diversity found in cacao populations occurring at river basins from Acre and Amazonas states, Brazil, increased the chance that the selected resistant accessions would be genetically more dissimilar, and represent distinct sources of resistance to M. perniciosa from `Scavina 6`.

Strain origin drives virulence and persistence of Xylella fastidiosa in alfalfa

Generalist pathogens frequently exist as a complex of genetically differentiated strains, which can differ in virulence and transmissibility. A description of the extent to which strain variability mediates host species competence is needed to understand disease dynamics for systems with both host and pathogen strain diversity. This study tested the hypothesis that strain-specific variation of a generalist vector-borne plant pathogen, Xylella fastidiosa, affects disease severity in alfalfa (Medicago sativa) and competence of this crop as a reservoir host. Alfalfa seedlings were inoculated with one of 23 X. fastidiosa isolates collected from different hosts, eight identified as belonging to an almond strain, and the remainder from a grape strain. Pathogen population, symptom severity and infection incidence were compared over five successive harvests. Infected plant size, measured mainly by plant height, internode length and above ground biomass, was reduced up to 50% compared to buffer-inoculated controls, and more severe symptoms were observed at later harvests and for higher pathogen populations. Grape isolates had higher bacterial populations within alfalfa than almond isolates. In addition, infection with grape isolates resulted in more severe alfalfa stunting than that caused by almond isolates. Moreover, there was a strong positive relationship between isolate multiplication rate and both symptom severity and infection persistence (i.e. maintenance of chronic infection within host). Isolates with low initial populations had low incidence at the final harvest, with one isolate dying out altogether. The results showed that X. fastidiosa-genetic diversity contributed to variation in alfalfa disease severity. The results also suggest that pathogen strain may mediate host competence via differences in bacterial population density and persistence.

Vector within-host feeding preference mediates transmission of a heterogeneously distributed pathogen

2. We documented the within-host distribution of two vector species that differ in transmission efficiency, the leafhoppers Draeculacephala minerva and Graphocephala atropunctata, and which are free to move throughout entirely caged alfalfa plants. The more efficient vector D. minerva fed preferentially at the base of the plant near the soil surface, whereas the less efficient G. atropunctata preferred overwhelming the top of the plant. 3. Next we documented X. fastidiosa heterogeneity in mechanically inoculated plants. Infection rates were up to 50% higher and mean bacterial population densities were 100-fold higher near the plant base than at the top or in the taproot. 4. Finally, we estimated transmission efficiency of the two leafhoppers when they were confined at either the base or top of inoculated alfalfa plants. Both vectors were inefficient when confined at the top of infected plants and were 20-60% more efficient when confined at the plant base. 5. These results show that vector transmission efficiency is determined by the interaction between leafhopper within-plant feeding behaviour and pathogen within-plant distribution. Fine-scale vector and pathogen overlap is likely to be a requirement generally for efficient transmission of vector-borne pathogens.

Transmission efficiency of Xylella fastidiosa by sharpshooters (Hemiptera : Cicadellidae) in coffee and citrus

Xylella fastidiosa (Wells, Raju, Hung, Weisburg, Mandelco-Paul, and Brenner) is a bacteria] pathogen transmitted by several Sharpshooters in two tribes of Cicadellinae (Proconiini and Cicadellini). Here, we compared the transmission efficiency of X. fastidiosa in coffee (Coffea arabica L) and citrus [Citrus sinensis (L) Osbeck] by Cicadellini [Bucephalogonia xanthophis (Berg) and Dilobopterus costalimai Young] and Proconiini [Homalodisca ignorata Melichar and Oncometopia facialis (Signoret) I sharpshooters that Occur in both crops. At different seasons, healthy adults of each species were submitted to a 48-h acquisition access period on citrus or coffee source plants infected with X. fastidiosa isolates that cause Citrus variegated chlorosis (CVC) and Coffee leaf scorch (CLS), respectively, and then confined on healthy seedlings of the corresponding host plant for a 48-h inoculation access period. No significant effect of inoculation season was observed when comparing infection rates of citrus or coffee plants inoculated by vectors at different times of the year. In Citrus, the transmission rate by single insects was significantly higher for H. ignorata (30%) in relation to B. xanthophis (5%) and O. facialis (1.1%) but there was no difference among vector species in coffee, whose transmission rates ranged from 1.2 to 7.2%. Comparing host plants, H. ignorata was more effective in transmitting X. fastidiosa to citrus (30%) in relation to coffee (2.2%), whereas the other vectors transmitted the bacterium to both hosts with similar efficiencies. Despite these variations. vector efficiency in coffee and Citrus is lower than that reported in other hosts.

Drip fungigation in early blight control of tomato

The aim was to verify if the fungigation via drip irrigation is an alternative to the conventional method of spraying on tomato for controlling early blight. Tomato plants (variety Santa Clara) were grown in pots inside a greenhouse. Fifty days after transplanting, the plants were inoculated with Alternaria solani and treated with four different fungicides: azoxystrobin (8 g 100 L(-1)), difeconazole (50 mL 100 L(-1)), metiram+piraclostrobin (200 g 100 L(-1)) and tebuconazole (100 mL 100 L(-1)) using two applications methods: conventional spraying and fiingigation dripping. The control plants did not receive fungicide application. To assess the severity of the disease, we used a rating scale expressed as the area under the disease progress curve (AUDPC) and production factors, such as number, weight and average diameter of the fruit and its productivity. The experimental design was completely randomized in factorial scheme 4 x 2 + 1 with eight replicates. Each plot had one plant in one pot. A 27% reduction in disease severity was observed when compared with the control plants, with no significant difference noted regarding the application method. The number of fruits did not statistically differ between the treatments. The average weight and diameter of the fruits were superior in the plants that had fungicide application compared to the control plant, reflecting an increase in productivity. Fungigation through water dripping is an alternative to the conventional method of spraying cultured tomatoes.

Newcastle disease virus in penguins from King George Island on the Antarctic region

Here we report the isolation of Newcastle disease virus (NDV) from cloacal swabs obtained from penguins in the South Atlantic Antarctic region (62 degrees 08S, 58 degrees 25W). Samples of 100 penguins from King George Island were tested by real-time PCR, of which 2 (2%) were positive for NDV. The positive samples were isolated in embryonated chicken eggs and their matrix and fusion proteins genes were partially sequenced. This was complemented by the serological study performed on the blood of the same specimens, which resulted in a 33.3% rate of positivity. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Forecasting fuel ethanol consumption in Brazil by time series models: 2006-2012

This article analysed scenarios for Brazilian consumption of ethanol for the period 2006 to 2012. The results show that if the country`s GDP sustains a 4.6% a year growth, domestic consumption of fuel ethanol could increase to 25.16 billion liters in this period, which is a volume relatively close to the forecasted gasoline consumption of 31 billion liters. At a lower GDP growth of 1.22% a year, gasoline consumption would be reduced and domestic ethanol consumption in Brazil would be no higher than 18.32 billion liters. Contrary to the current situation, forecasts indicated that hydrated ethanol consumption could become much higher than anhydrous consumption in Brazil. The former is being consumed in cars moved exclusively by ethanol and flex-fuel cars, successfully introduced in the country at 2003. Flex cars allow Brazilian consumers to choose between gasoline and hydrated ethanol and immediately switch to whichever fuel presents the most favourable relative price.