Influence diagnostics for polyhazard models in the presence of covariates

In this paper, we present various diagnostic methods for polyhazard models. Polyhazard models are a flexible family for fitting lifetime data. Their main advantage over the single hazard models, such as the Weibull and the log-logistic models, is to include a large amount of nonmonotone hazard shapes, as bathtub and multimodal curves. Some influence methods, such as the local influence and total local influence of an individual are derived, analyzed and discussed. A discussion of the computation of the likelihood displacement as well as the normal curvature in the local influence method are presented. Finally, an example with real data is given for illustration.

Log-modified Weibull regression models with censored data: Sensitivity and residual analysis

This paper proposes a regression model considering the modified Weibull distribution. This distribution can be used to model bathtub-shaped failure rate functions. Assuming censored data, we consider maximum likelihood and Jackknife estimators for the parameters of the model. We derive the appropriate matrices for assessing local influence on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes and we also present some ways to perform global influence. Besides, for different parameter settings, sample sizes and censoring percentages, various simulations are performed and the empirical distribution of the modified deviance residual is displayed and compared with the standard normal distribution. These studies suggest that the residual analysis usually performed in normal linear regression models can be straightforwardly extended for a martingale-type residual in log-modified Weibull regression models with censored data. Finally, we analyze a real data set under log-modified Weibull regression models. A diagnostic analysis and a model checking based on the modified deviance residual are performed to select appropriate models. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On estimation and influence diagnostics for zero-inflated negative binomial regression models

The zero-inflated negative binomial model is used to account for overdispersion detected in data that are initially analyzed under the zero-Inflated Poisson model A frequentist analysis a jackknife estimator and a non-parametric bootstrap for parameter estimation of zero-inflated negative binomial regression models are considered In addition an EM-type algorithm is developed for performing maximum likelihood estimation Then the appropriate matrices for assessing local influence on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes and some ways to perform global influence analysis are derived In order to study departures from the error assumption as well as the presence of outliers residual analysis based on the standardized Pearson residuals is discussed The relevance of the approach is illustrated with a real data set where It is shown that zero-inflated negative binomial regression models seems to fit the data better than the Poisson counterpart (C) 2010 Elsevier B V All rights reserved

Regression models for grouped survival data: Estimation and sensitivity analysis

In this study, regression models are evaluated for grouped survival data when the effect of censoring time is considered in the model and the regression structure is modeled through four link functions. The methodology for grouped survival data is based on life tables, and the times are grouped in k intervals so that ties are eliminated. Thus, the data modeling is performed by considering the discrete models of lifetime regression. The model parameters are estimated by using the maximum likelihood and jackknife methods. To detect influential observations in the proposed models, diagnostic measures based on case deletion, which are denominated global influence, and influence measures based on small perturbations in the data or in the model, referred to as local influence, are used. In addition to those measures, the local influence and the total influential estimate are also employed. Various simulation studies are performed and compared to the performance of the four link functions of the regression models for grouped survival data for different parameter settings, sample sizes and numbers of intervals. Finally, a data set is analyzed by using the proposed regression models. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Association between decay fungi and subterranean termites in the wood biodeterioration process of Tipuana tipu (Benth.) O. Kuntze trees of Sao Paulo city, SP

In the present paper the process of wood biodeterioration of tipuana trees planted in 7 regions of the city of Sao Paulo, SP was evaluated. On the sidewalks, 1109 trees were analyzed taking into consideration the occurrence and association of the xylophagous organisms (decay fungi and subterranean termites), the wood deterioration and the BHD (breast height diameter). The percentage of wood internal deterioration (%) was obtained by non destructive analysis, using a penetrometer. The results had shown that 75% of the tipuana trees presented BHD superior to 50 cm, characterizing them as adult. Decay fungi in the roots and/or trunk had been observed in 338 trees (30.5%). Subterranean termites of Heterotermes sp. and Coptotermes gestroi species had occurred in 307 trees (27.7%), the latter in high infestation level. The association between the fungi and termites was observed, as well as its relation with the BHD, where a greater value of BHD meant higher wood biodeterioration intensity. For tipuana trees, the BHD was considered an indicative attribute of the internal deterioration intensity, caused by these xylophagous organisms.

An estimate of biometric parameters in eucalyptus clone plantations in Southern Bahia: an application of the airborne laser scanning (ALS) technology

The application of airborne laser scanning (ALS) technologies in forest inventories has shown great potential to improve the efficiency of forest planning activities. Precise estimates, fast assessment and relatively low complexity can explain the good results in terms of efficiency. The evolution of GPS and inertial measurement technologies, as well as the observed lower assessment costs when these technologies are applied to large scale studies, can explain the increasing dissemination of ALS technologies. The observed good quality of results can be expressed by estimates of volumes and basal area with estimated error below the level of 8.4%, depending on the size of sampled area, the quantity of laser pulses per square meter and the number of control plots. This paper analyzes the potential of an ALS assessment to produce certain forest inventory statistics in plantations of cloned Eucalyptus spp with precision equal of superior to conventional methods. The statistics of interest in this case were: volume, basal area, mean height and dominant trees mean height. The ALS flight for data assessment covered two strips of approximately 2 by 20 Km, in which clouds of points were sampled in circular plots with a radius of 13 m. Plots were sampled in different parts of the strips to cover different stand ages. The clouds of points generated by the ALS assessment: overall height mean, standard error, five percentiles (height under which we can find 10%, 30%, 50%,70% and 90% of the ALS points above ground level in the cloud), and density of points above ground level in each percentile were calculated. The ALS statistics were used in regression models to estimate mean diameter, mean height, mean height of dominant trees, basal area and volume. Conventional forest inventory sample plots provided real data. For volume, an exploratory assessment involving different combinations of ALS statistics allowed for the definition of the most promising relationships and fitting tests based on well known forest biometric models. The models based on ALS statistics that produced the best results involved: the 30% percentile to estimate mean diameter (R(2)=0,88 and MQE%=0,0004); the 10% and 90% percentiles to estimate mean height (R(2)=0,94 and MQE%=0,0003); the 90% percentile to estimate dominant height (R(2)=0,96 and MQE%=0,0003); the 10% percentile and mean height of ALS points to estimate basal area (R(2)=0,92 and MQE%=0,0016); and, to estimate volume, age and the 30% and 90% percentiles (R(2)=0,95 MQE%=0,002). Among the tested forest biometric models, the best fits were provided by the modified Schumacher using age and the 90% percentile, modified Clutter using age, mean height of ALS points and the 70% percentile, and modified Buckman using age, mean height of ALS points and the 10% percentile.

Radial variation of the wood anatomical structure of Gmelina arborea trees from different climatic and management conditions in Costa Rica

The evaluations of the effect of the climatic conditions and of the intensity of forest management in the trunk of the Gmelina arborea Linn. Roxb. trees are restricted to its physical-mechanical properties and use. The present work has as objective to study the radial variations of the wood anatomy of the gmelina trees sampled in plantations of 30 sites in Costa Rica, characterized by two climatic conditions (tropical dry and humid) and three intensities of forest management (intensive, moderate and without management). The results of the analyses demonstrated the existence of radial variation of the different anatomical parameters, except for the fiber lumen diameter and multiple vessels in the wood of the gmelina trees. For the wood anatomical elements, fibers (width, lumen diameter, and length), vessels (multiple vessels, diameter and frequency) and radial parenchyma (height) relationships were observed with the climate (tropical humid and dry). The radial variations of the wood anatomical elements were, also, influenced by the management regimes of the gmelina trees.

Characterization of tree-rings of Pinus caribaea var. hondurensis Barr. et Golf. trees by X ray densitometry

This work aimed to determining the anatomical structure of wood, through methodology of histology and X-ray densitometry, of resin-tapped and not resin-tapped Pinus caribaea var. hondurensis trees samples, of three diameter classes. Pine trees, in forest plantation established in 1969, in the Ecological Experimental Station of Itirapina, from the Forestry Institute of Sao Paulo State, were measured and stratified into three classes of trunk diameter. The pine trees were resin-tapped since 2004, with the opening of two simultaneous and opposing panels. Sixty samples of pine wood trees were extracted from the tree trunk through a non-destructive method and in the laboratory. Tree rings were determined in the laboratory and wood apparent density by X-ray densitometry. The test results showed that: (i) false tree rings occur in the early wood and late wood of the tree rings due to climate change; (ii) the X-ray densitometry allowed the demarcation of the tree rings limits; (iii) the wood apparent density average was significantly different between the trees in high class diameter and in the medium-low class; (iv) the wood characteristics from the resin-tapped and non resin-tapped faces did not show significant differences.

Variation of wood density and relationship with the tree-ring width of mahogany trees, Swietenia macrophylla, from Amazonian tropical forest of Peru

Mahogany trees, Swietenia macrophylla, occur in open rainforest, semi deciduous and deciduous and dense rainforest of Peruvian Amazonian tropical forest. They occur, preferentially, in areas with a defined dry season, with typical phenology and seasonal variation activity, forming distinct tree-rings. The present work had as aim to determine the wood density radial variation of 14 mahogany trees, of two populations of the Peruvian Amazonian tropical forest, through the X-ray densitometry and to evaluate their application as methodology, compared to the classic method of measurement table, for the determination of the treering width. The radial wood apparent density of the trees profiles rendered it possible to delimit the areas of juvenile-adult wood and of the heartwood-sapwood, relative to the anatomical structure and chemical composition differences, due to the extractives and the vessels obstruction by tyloses. The mean, minimum and maximum wood apparent density of the mahogany trees for the Populations A and B were of 0.70; 0.29; 1.01 g.cm(-3) and 0.81; 0.29; 1.19 g.cm(-3), respectively. The analysis of the variance and mean test indicate differences of mean wood density among the mahogany trees of each population, probably due to the age of the trees. There was no correlation between mean wood density of mahogany trees among the two populations, as well as, between the tree-ring width and the respective mean density. The X-ray densitometry technique is an important tool in the evaluation of the radial variation of wood apparent density and the delimitation of tree-ring boundaries, with correlations of 0.94 and 0.93 in relation to measurement table, for each sampled population.

Spatial portability of numerical models of leaf wetness duration based on empirical approaches

Leaf wetness duration (LWD) models based on empirical approaches offer practical advantages over physically based models in agricultural applications, but their spatial portability is questionable because they may be biased to the climatic conditions under which they were developed. In our study, spatial portability of three LWD models with empirical characteristics - a RH threshold model, a decision tree model with wind speed correction, and a fuzzy logic model - was evaluated using weather data collected in Brazil, Canada, Costa Rica, Italy and the USA. The fuzzy logic model was more accurate than the other models in estimating LWD measured by painted leaf wetness sensors. The fraction of correct estimates for the fuzzy logic model was greater (0.87) than for the other models (0.85-0.86) across 28 sites where painted sensors were installed, and the degree of agreement k statistic between the model and painted sensors was greater for the fuzzy logic model (0.71) than that for the other models (0.64-0.66). Values of the k statistic for the fuzzy logic model were also less variable across sites than those of the other models. When model estimates were compared with measurements from unpainted leaf wetness sensors, the fuzzy logic model had less mean absolute error (2.5 h day(-1)) than other models (2.6-2.7 h day(-1)) after the model was calibrated for the unpainted sensors. The results suggest that the fuzzy logic model has greater spatial portability than the other models evaluated and merits further validation in comparison with physical models under a wider range of climate conditions. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effectiveness of two systems for the spraying of pesticides in citrus trees

Citriculture normally uses high application volumes in pesticide solutions (of 2.000 to 5.000 L ha(-1)) to control pests and diseases that affect the crop, which generates an increase in operational costs. For this reason, diverse systems of application are being developed to reduce application volumes and improve the uniformity of pesticide deposition. The goal of this work was to evaluate the efficiency of two application systems of pesticides in citrus trees. One system used a prototype for terrestrial application with rotary disc atomizers that are widely used in agricultural aviation, and the other system used hollow cone tip hydraulics. For the treatment of the trees the insecticide Metidation was used at the dose of 180 gr per hectare. To study the droplet spectrum, water-sensitive papers were installed at different positions in the trees canopy, and for the study of insecticide deposition leaves of the treated plants were collected. The water-sensitive papers were collected and analyzed using a computerized image analysis system (e-Sprinkle, EMBRAPA, Sao Paulo, Brazil), and the leaves analyzed by the technique of gas chromatography. Pesticide deposition was similar in both application system, although the solution volume used by the application system equipped with rotary disc atomizers was one quarter of the volume used by the application system equipped with hydraulic tips, reducing considerably the cost of the phytosanitary treatments.

Alternative Analytical Expressions for the General van Genuchten-Mualem and van Genuchten-Burdine Hydraulic Conductivity Models

The van Genuchten expressions for the unsaturated soil hydraulic properties, first published in 1980, are used frequently in various vadose zone flow and transport applications assuming a specific relationship between the m and n soil hydraulic parameters. By comparison, probably because of the complexity of the hydraulic conductivity equations, the more general solutions with independent m and n values are rarely used. We expressed the general van Genuchten-Mualem and van Genuchten-Burdine hydraulic conductivity equations in terms of hypergeometric functions, which can be approximated by infinite series that converge rapidly for relatively large values of the van Genuchten-Mualem parameter n but only very slowly when n is close to one. Alternative equations were derived that provide very close approximations of the analytical results. The newly proposed equations allow the use of independent values of the parameters m and n in the soil water retention model of van Genuchten for subsequent prediction of the van Genuchten-Mualem and van Genuchten-Burdine hydraulic conductivity models, thus providing more flexibility in fitting experimental pressure-head-dependent water content, theta(h), and hydraulic conductivity, K(h), or K(theta) data.

Forecasting fuel ethanol consumption in Brazil by time series models: 2006-2012

This article analysed scenarios for Brazilian consumption of ethanol for the period 2006 to 2012. The results show that if the country`s GDP sustains a 4.6% a year growth, domestic consumption of fuel ethanol could increase to 25.16 billion liters in this period, which is a volume relatively close to the forecasted gasoline consumption of 31 billion liters. At a lower GDP growth of 1.22% a year, gasoline consumption would be reduced and domestic ethanol consumption in Brazil would be no higher than 18.32 billion liters. Contrary to the current situation, forecasts indicated that hydrated ethanol consumption could become much higher than anhydrous consumption in Brazil. The former is being consumed in cars moved exclusively by ethanol and flex-fuel cars, successfully introduced in the country at 2003. Flex cars allow Brazilian consumers to choose between gasoline and hydrated ethanol and immediately switch to whichever fuel presents the most favourable relative price.

Copper sprays and windbreaks for control of citrus canker on young orange trees in southern Brazil

The benefit of windbreaks and copper sprays for control of citrus canker caused by Xanthomonas axonopodis pv. citri was investigated in a commercial citrus orchard located in a citrus canker endemic area in southern Brazil. Control of canker was evaluated as incidence and severity of lesions on foliage and by the effect on premature leaf and fruit drop for three production seasons. Effect of the treatments on fruit production was evaluated as incidence of citrus canker on prematurely abscised fruits and harvested fruits. Copper application significantly reduced damage to foliage and fruit, while windbreaks made little contribution to disease control. Copper sprays increased fruit yield for 3 years. This could be attributed to lower incidence of fruit with lesions and fewer fruits abscised due to canker infection. Incidence and severity on the leaves were inversely related to the number of fruits harvested per tree and directly related to the number of fruits abscised per tree. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

South American leaf blight intensity evaluated in six clones of young and adult rubber trees in the Vale do Ribeira region, Sao Paulo state, Brazil

Rubber tree clones present different intensity of symptoms, depending on their age. This is mostly clearly seen in the presence or absence of old leaves with ascopores, corresponding to flows of new and susceptible leaves. The objective of this work was to evaluate the intensity of symptoms of south American leaf blight (SALB) in six rubber tree clones, one and eight years old, in the Vale do Ribeira region, Sao Paulo state. The results Showed that clones FX 3864, RRIM 600, IAN 873 and IAN 717 Suffered more attacks when young, and RRIM 600, IAN 717 and FX 3864 when adult. The clone IAN 873 showed the smallest amounts of disease in the adult phase, due to uniform change in the leaves and a compact flow of new leaves, which happened during a season that was unfavorable to pathogen infection, presenting the phenomenon of avoidance or evasion in time.