Pricing farm-level agricultural insurance: a Bayesian approach

This paper applies Hierarchical Bayesian Models to price farm-level yield insurance contracts. This methodology considers the temporal effect, the spatial dependence and spatio-temporal models. One of the major advantages of this framework is that an estimate of the premium rate is obtained directly from the posterior distribution. These methods were applied to a farm-level data set of soybean in the State of the Parana (Brazil), for the period between 1994 and 2003. The model selection was based on a posterior predictive criterion. This study improves considerably the estimation of the fair premium rates considering the small number of observations.

Bayesian ratemaking procedure of crop insurance contracts with skewed distribution

Over the years, crop insurance programs became the focus of agricultural policy in the USA, Spain, Mexico, and more recently in Brazil. Given the increasing interest in insurance, accurate calculation of the premium rate is of great importance. We address the crop-yield distribution issue and its implications in pricing an insurance contract considering the dynamic structure of the data and incorporating the spatial correlation in the Hierarchical Bayesian framework. Results show that empirical (insurers) rates are higher in low risk areas and lower in high risk areas. Such methodological improvement is primarily important in situations of limited data.

Establishing a soybean germplasm core collection

Core collections are of strategic importance as they allow the use of a small part of a germplasm collection that is representative of the total collection. The objective of this study was to develop a soybean core collection of the USDA Soybean Germplasm Collection by comparing the results of random, proportional, logarithmic, multivariate proportional and multivariate logarithmic sampling strategies. All but the random sampling strategy used stratification of the entire collection based on passport data and maturity group classification. The multivariate proportional and multivariate logarithmic strategies made further use of qualitative and quantitative trait data to select diverse accessions within each stratum. The 18 quantitative trait data distribution parameters were calculated for each core and for the entire collection for pairwise comparison to validate the sampling strategies. All strategies were adequate for assembling a core collection. The random core collection best represented the entire collection in statistical terms. Proportional and logarithmic strategies did not maximize statistical representation but were better in selecting maximum variability. Multivariate proportional and multivariate logarithmic strategies produced the best core collections as measured by maximum variability conservation. The soybean core collection was established using the multivariate proportional selection strategy. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Genetic potential of a maize population from Southern Brazil for the modified convergent-divergent selection scheme

Maize (Zea mays L.) is a very important cereal to world-wide economy which is also true for Brazil, particularly in the South region. Grain yield and plant height have been chosen as important criteria by breeders and farmers from Santa Catarina State (SC), Brazil. The objective of this work was to estimate genetic-statistic parameters associated with genetic gain for grain yield and plant height, in the first cycle of convergent-divergent half-sib selection in a maize population (MPA1) cultivated by farmers within the municipality of Anchieta (SC). Three experiments were carried out in different small farms at Anchieta using low external agronomic inputs; each experiment represented independent samples of half-sib families, which were evaluated in randomized complete blocks with three replications per location. Significant differences among half-sib families were observed for both variables in all experiments. The expected responses to truncated selection of the 25% better families in each experiment were 5.1, 5.8 and 5.2% for reducing plant height and 3.9, 5.7 and 5.0% for increasing grain yield, respectively. The magnitudes of genetic-statistic parameters estimated evidenced that the composite population MPA1 exhibits enough genetic variability to be used in cyclical process of recurrent selection. There were evidences that the genetic structure of the base population MPA1, as indicated by its genetic variability, may lead to expressive changes in the traits under selection, even under low selection pressure.

Does using stepwise variable selection to build sequential path analysis models make sense?

Causal inference methods - mainly path analysis and structural equation modeling - offer plant physiologists information about cause-and-effect relationships among plant traits. Recently, an unusual approach to causal inference through stepwise variable selection has been proposed and used in various works on plant physiology. The approach should not be considered correct from a biological point of view. Here, it is explained why stepwise variable selection should not be used for causal inference, and shown what strange conclusions can be drawn based upon the former analysis when one aims to interpret cause-and-effect relationships among plant traits.

Cattle Grazing Distribution and Efficacy of Strategic Mineral Mix Placement in Tropical Brazilian Pastures

A study was conducted in Brazil to identify factors affecting grazing distribution of yearling Nelore cross heifers and to evaluate the efficacy of placement of a salt-mineral mix away from water to improve uniformity of grazing. Two pastures (25 ha and 42 ha) were evaluated for four 15-d sessions. Mineral mix was placed 590 m to 780 m from water during two sessions and at water for two sessions. Stubble heights were measured at the beginning and end of each session in 1-ha subunits of each pasture. Cattle locations were recorded oil clay 13 and 14 of each session by horseback observers. Heifers avoided areas with a preponderance of forbs and taller grass (P < 0.001). For the first 15 days of the study cattle avoided subunits farther from water. Thereafter, horizontal distance from water had no affect on grazing use (P > 0.10). Stubble height reduction was more uniform (P < 0.05) when the mineral mix was Lit water compared to away from water. In contrast, heifers spent less time farther from water when Mineral mix was placed at water (P = 0.02) based Oil Visual observations. Strategic placement of a salt-mineral mix away from water does not appear to be a reliable tool to improve cattle grazing distribution in humid tropical pastures from 25 ha to 45 ha in size.

A Log-Linear Regression Model for the Beta-Weibull Distribution

We introduce the log-beta Weibull regression model based on the beta Weibull distribution (Famoye et al., 2005; Lee et al., 2007). We derive expansions for the moment generating function which do not depend on complicated functions. The new regression model represents a parametric family of models that includes as sub-models several widely known regression models that can be applied to censored survival data. We employ a frequentist analysis, a jackknife estimator, and a parametric bootstrap for the parameters of the proposed model. We derive the appropriate matrices for assessing local influences on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes and present some ways to assess global influences. Further, for different parameter settings, sample sizes, and censoring percentages, several simulations are performed. In addition, the empirical distribution of some modified residuals are displayed and compared with the standard normal distribution. These studies suggest that the residual analysis usually performed in normal linear regression models can be extended to a modified deviance residual in the proposed regression model applied to censored data. We define martingale and deviance residuals to evaluate the model assumptions. The extended regression model is very useful for the analysis of real data and could give more realistic fits than other special regression models.

Silicon distribution and accumulation in shoot tissue of the tropical forage grass Brachiaria brizantha

Silicon (Si) accumulation in organs and cells is one of the most prominent characteristics of plants of the family Poaceae. Many species from this family are used as forage plants for animal feeding. The present study investigates in Brachiaria brizantha (Hochst. ex A. Rich.) Stapf. cv. Marandu: (1) the dry matter production and Si content in shoot due to soil Si fertilizations; (2) the Si distribution among shoot parts; and (3) the silica deposition and localization in leaves. Plants of B. brizantha cv. Marandu were grown under contrasting Si supplies in soil and nutrient solution. Silica deposition and distribution in grass leaf blades were observed using light microscope and scanning electron microscope equipped with an energy dispersive X-ray spectrometer (SEM-EDXS). Silicon concentration in the B. brizantha shoot increased according to the Si supply. Silicon in grass leaves decreased following the order: mature leaf blades > recently expanded leaf blades > non-expanded leaf blades. Silicon accumulates mainly on the upper (adaxial) epidermis of the grass leaf blades and, especially, on the bulliform cells. The Si distribution on adaxial leaf blade surface is non uniform and reflects a silica deposition exclusively on the cell wall of bulliform cells.

Occurrence and distribution of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in retail oysters in Sao Paulo State, Brazil

Vibrio parahaemolyticus is a potentially pathogenic bacterium that occurs naturally in estuarine environments worldwide, and is often associated with gastroenteritis in humans following consumption of raw bivalve mollusks, especially raw oysters. The occurrence of total and pathogenic V. parahaemolyticus in 74 samples of raw oysters collected in restaurants, supermarkets, groceries and beach huts in Sao Paulo State, was monitored between February 2006 and January 2007. Enumeration of V. parahaemolyticus was performed according to the most probable number (MPN) procedure. Five to ten typical colonies were selected from thiosulfate-citrate-bile salts-sucrose (TCBS) agar plates for confirmation by the presence of the species-specific gene tlh and the virulence genes tdh and trh by multiplex PCR. V. parahaemolyticus was detected in 100% of samples. The densities of total V. parahaemolyticus varied from 1.78 to 6.04 logio (MPN/g), with higher densities being detected in fall and summer, and lower densities in winter (P < 0.05). There was no statistical difference among densities of V parahaemolyticus regarding the site of collection. None of the 1943 V parahaemolyticus isolates contained tdh and/or trh. These data provide information for the assessment of exposure to V. parahaemolyticus in oysters consumed in Sao Paulo, State, Brazil. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hydrolysis Influence on Phytochemical Composition, Antioxidant Activity, Plasma Concentration, and Tissue Distribution of Hydroethanolic Ilex paraguariensis Extract Components

The infusion of aerial parts of Ilex paraguariensis is widely consumed. Its antioxidant activity suggests an important role of this plant in the treatment/prevention of oxidative stress related diseases. Plant extract active compounds are frequently found in esterified form that may be poorly absorbed. Hydrolysis of the extract is a possible approach to increase its bioavailability. The aim of this study was to perform a phytochemical analysis and evaluate in rats the plasma concentration and tissue distribution of antioxidant compounds in the hydroethanolic extract of Ilex paraguariensis, before and after enzymatic hydrolysis. Both extracts presented high antioxidant activity and phenolic content. Rats given single or repeated doses of the hydrolyzed extract showed increased plasma antioxidant activity and higher plasma levels of caffeic acid. However, no changes of endogenous antioxidants were observed. In conclusion, hydrolysis of the extract of Ilex paraguariensis is a strategy to improve its bioavailability and in vivo antioxidant activity.

Methylenedioxymethamphetamine (Ecstasy) Decreases Neutrophil Activity and Alters Leukocyte Distribution in Bone Marrow, Spleen and Blood

Objective: Looking for possible neuroimmune relationships, we analyzed the effects of methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA) administration on neuroendocrine, neutrophil activity and leukocyte distribution in mice. Methods: Five experiments were performed. In the first, mice were treated with MDMA (10 mg/kg) 30, 60 min and 24 h prior to blood sample collection for neutrophil activity analysis. In the second experiment, the blood of nave mice was collected and incubated with MDMA for neutrophil activity in vitro analysis. In the third and fourth experiments, mice were injected with MDMA (10 mg/kg) and 60 min later, blood and brain were collected to analyze corticosterone serum levels and hypothalamic noradrenaline (NA) levels and turnover. In the last experiment, mice were injected with MDMA 10 mg/kg and 60 min later, blood, bone marrow and spleen were collected for leukocyte distribution analysis. Results: Results showed an increase in hypothalamic NA turnover and corticosterone serum levels 60 min after MDMA (10 mg/kg) administration, a decrease in peripheral blood neutrophil oxidative burst and a decrease in the percentage and intensity of neutrophil phagocytosis. It was further found that MDMA (10 mg/kg) treatment also altered leukocyte distribution in blood, bone marrow and spleen. In addition, no effects were observed for MDMA after in vitro exposure both in neutrophil oxidative burst and phagocytosis. Conclusion: The effects of MDMA administration (10 mg/kg) on neutrophil activity and leukocyte distribution might have been induced indirectly through noradrenergic neurons and/or hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis activations. Copyright (C) 2009 S. Karger AG, Basel

Vegetative and fruit characteristics of papaya trees obtained by mass selection

The present work had as purpose to evaluate some characteristics of papaya trees (Carica papaya L.), Golden cultivar, obtained trough plant mass selection, regarding plant and fruit quality in the first months of production. The samples were evaluated in a commercial crop at: 0, 20, 40, 70, 130, 180, 230, 260, 280, 310 and 340 days after the planting (DAP) and the first fruits were harvested at 230 DAP. The results showed the low height (199cm in 340 DAP) and low first flowering`s heigth (71cm), which is important to facilitate the harvest process. The plants presented good yield with high number of leafs (allowing a great area of fruit cover) and about 60 fruits per plant. The fruits kept similar features to cv. Golden. The fruit`s fresh weight ranged from 302.4 to 467.5g, which is in the range of the Brazilian market. The pulp thickness was 2.35cm, which is a feature of great economic interest. The pulp thickness showed close relation with climatic factors, and great variations of temperature and precipitation accelerated the pulp loss of thickness.

Paste Residence Time in a Spouted Bed Dryer. IV: Effect of the Inert Particle Size Distribution

The residence time distribution and mean residence time of a 10% sodium bicarbonate solution that is dried in a conventional spouted bed with inert bodies were measured with the stimulus-response method. Methylene blue was used as a chemical tracer, and the effects of the paste feed mode, size distribution of the inert bodies, and mean particle size on the residence times and dried powder properties were investigated. The results showed that the residence time distributions could be best reproduced with the perfect mixing cell model or N = 1 for the continuous stirred tank reactor in a series model. The mean residence times ranged from 6.04 to 12.90 min and were significantly affected by the factors studied. Analysis of variance on the experimental data showed that mean residence times were affected by the mean diameter of the inert bodies at a significance level of 1% and by the size distribution at a level of 5%. Moreover, altering the paste feed from dripping to pneumatic atomization affected mean residence time at a 5% significance level. The dried powder characteristics proved to be adequate for further industrial manipulation, as demonstrated by the low moisture content, narrow range of particle size, and good flow properties. The results of this research are significant in the study of the drying of heat-sensitive materials because it shows that by simultaneously changing the size distribution and average size of the inert bodies, the mean residence times of a paste can be reduced by half, thus decreasing losses due to degradation.

Are supplier selection criteria going green? Case studies of companies in Brazil

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to verify if Brazilian companies are adopting environmental requirements in the supplier selection process. Further, this paper intends to analyze whether there is a relation between the level of environmental management maturity and the inclusion of environmental criteria in the companies` selection of suppliers. Design/methodology/approach - A review of mainstream literature on environmental management, traditional criteria in the supplier selection process and the incorporation of environmental requirements in this context. The empirical study`s strategy is based on five Brazilian case studies with industrial companies. Face-to-face interviews and informal conversations are to be held, explanations made by e-mail with representatives from the purchasing, environmental management, logistics and other areas, and observation and the collection of company documents are also employed. Findings - Based on the cases, it is concluded that companies still use traditional criteria to select suppliers, such as quality and cost, and do not adopt environmental requirements in the supplier selection process in a uniform manner. Evidence found shows that the level of environmental management maturity influences the depth with which companies adopt environmental criteria when selecting suppliers. Thus, a company with more advanced environmental management adopts more formal procedures for selecting environmentally appropriate suppliers than others. Originality/value - This is the first known study to verify if Brazilian companies are adopting environmental requirements in the supplier selection process.

Valuing water resources in developing countries: A semiparametric approach to valuation models

Valuation of projects for the preservation of water resources provides important information to policy makers and funding institutions. Standard contingent valuation models rely on distributional assumptions to provide welfare measures. Deviations from assumed and actual distribution of benefits are important when designing policies in developing countries, where inequality is a concern. This article applies semiparametric methods to obtain estimates of the benefit from a project for the preservation of an important Brazilian river basin. These estimates lead to significant differences from those obtained using the standard parametric approach.