185 resultados para Bayes credible intervals


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Fuzzy Bayesian tests were performed to evaluate whether the mother`s seroprevalence and children`s seroconversion to measles vaccine could be considered as ""high"" or ""low"". The results of the tests were aggregated into a fuzzy rule-based model structure, which would allow an expert to influence the model results. The linguistic model was developed considering four input variables. As the model output, we obtain the recommended age-specific vaccine coverage. The inputs of the fuzzy rules are fuzzy sets and the outputs are constant functions, performing the simplest Takagi-Sugeno-Kang model. This fuzzy approach is compared to a classical one, where the classical Bayes test was performed. Although the fuzzy and classical performances were similar, the fuzzy approach was more detailed and revealed important differences. In addition to taking into account subjective information in the form of fuzzy hypotheses it can be intuitively grasped by the decision maker. Finally, we show that the Bayesian test of fuzzy hypotheses is an interesting approach from the theoretical point of view, in the sense that it combines two complementary areas of investigation, normally seen as competitive. (C) 2007 IMACS. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) studies on Wilson`s disease (WD) show lack of correlations between neurological and neuroimaging features. Long-term follow-up reports with sequential brain MRI in patients with neurological WD comparing different modalities of treatment are scarce. Eighteen patients with neurological WD underwent pretreatment and posttreatment brain MRI scans to evaluate the range of abnormalities and the evolution along these different periods. All patients underwent at least two MRI scans at different intervals, up to 11 years after the beginning of treatment. MRI findings were correlated with clinical picture, clinical severity, duration of neurological symptoms, and treatment with two different drugs. Patients were divided into two groups according to treatment: d-penicillamine (D-P), zinc (Zn), and Zn after the onset of severe intolerance to D-P. MRI scans before treatment showed, in all patients, hypersignal intensity lesions on T2- and proton-density-weighted images bilaterally and symmetrically at basal nuclei, thalamus, brain stem, cerebellum, brain cortex, and brain white matter. The most common neurological symptoms were: dysarthria, parkinsonism, dystonia, tremor, psychiatric disturbances, dysphagia, risus sardonicus, ataxia, chorea, and athetosis. From the neurological point of view, there was no difference on the evolution between the group treated exclusively with D-P and the one treated with Zn. Analysis of MRI scans with longer intervals after the beginning of treatment depicted a trend for neuroimaging worsening, without neurological correspondence, among patients treated with Zn. Neuroimaging pattern of evolution was more favorable for the group that received exclusively D-P.

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Purpose: To evaluate the effects of oral azithromycin in patients with posterior blepharitis. Methods: Twenty-six eyes of 13 patients with posterior blepharitis diagnosed by a qualified ophthalmologist were enrolled in this study. Patients were instructed to use oral azithromycin 500 mg per day for 3 days in 3 cycles with 7-day intervals. Subjective clinical outcomes were graded and scored 1 day before and 30 days after the end of the treatment (53 days after initiating the treatment) based on severity scores of: (1) eyelid debris; (2) eyelid telangiectasia; (3) swelling of the eyelid margin; (4) redness of the eyelid margin; and (5) ocular mucus secretion. For the assessment of global efficacy, patients were asked by the investigator to rate the subjective symptoms (eyelid itching, ocular itching, eyelid hyperemia, ocular hyperemia, ocular mucus secretion, photophobia, foreign body sensation, and dry eye sensation) on a scale of 0 (no symptoms) to 5 (severe symptoms). Break-up time, Schirmer I test, corneal fluorescein staining score, and rose bengal staining score were also performed in all patients. Results: All clinical outcomes scoring showed statistically significant improvement after oral azithromycin, except for eyelid swelling. Average subjective symptom grading improved statistically after treatment with oral azithromycin, except for eyelid hyperemia, photophobia, and foreign body sensation. Average tear film break-up time values showed statistically significant improvement after the treatment with oral azithromycin. No statistically significant improvement was observed on average values of Schirmer I test, corneal fluorescein staining score, and rose bengal staining score. Conclusions: The combination of multiple clinical parameters shown in this study supports the clinical efficacy of pulsed oral azithromycin therapy for the management of posterior blepharitis.

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Objective: To evaluate the effect of maternal oral hydration on amniotic fluid index (AFI) in pregnancies with fetal gastroschisis. Methods: AFI was evaluated at 24-hour intervals, during 4 consecutive days, under a continuous maternal oral water hydration regimen, in singleton pregnancies with isolated fetal gastroschisis. Results: Nine pregnancies were examined at a mean gestational age of 31.6 weeks (+/-1.4) and mean maternal daily oral water intake was 3,437 (+/-810) ml. Mean AFI on days 0-3 were 13.2 (+/-2.9), 14.8 (+/-3.3), 14.5 (+/-3.1) and 14.8 (+/-2.6), respectively. AFI on day 0 was significantly lower compared to all the other 3 days (p = 0.01 and 0.02). Significant correlation was found in relative difference in AFI between day 0 and day 1 and gestational age (r = -0.67, p = 0.05) and the amount of water intake in the previous 24 h (r = 0.76, p = 0.02). Conclusion: Maternal oral water hydration significantly increases AFI in pregnancies with isolated fetal gastroschisis. Copyright (C) 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel

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Objective To study increases in electromyographic (EMG) response from the right and left rectus femoris muscles of individuals with long-term cervical spinal cord injuries after EMG biofeedback treatment. Design Repeated measure trials compared EMG responses before and after biofeedback treatment in patients with spinal cord injuries. Main outcome measures The Neuroeducator was used to analyse and provide feedback of the EMG signal and to measure EMG response. Setting Department of Traumatic Orthopaedics, School of Medicine, University of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Participants Twenty subjects (three men and 17 women), between 21 and 49 years of age, with incomplete spinal cord injury at level C6 or higher (range C2 to C6). Of these subjects, 10 received their spinal cord injuries from motor vehicle accidents, one from a gunshot, five from diving, three from falls and one from spinal disc herniation. Results Significant differences were found in the EMG response of the right rectus femoris muscle between pre-initial (T1), post-initial (T2) and additional (T3) biofeedback treatment with the subjects in a sitting position [mean (standard deviation) T1: 26 mu V (29); T2: 67 mu V (50); T3: 77 mu V (62)]. The mean differences and 95% confidence intervals for these comparisons were as follows: T1 to T2, -40.7 (-53.1 to -29.4); T2 to T3, -9.6 (-26.1 to 2.3). Similar differences were found for the left leg in a sitting position and for both legs in the sit-to-stand condition. Conclusions The EMG responses obtained in this study showed that treatment involving EMG biofeedback significantly increased voluntary EMG responses from right and left rectus femoris muscles in individuals with spinal cord injuries. (C) 2010 Chartered Society of Physiotherapy. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Methods. A prospective cohort study was conducted with 831 pregnant women from antenatal clinics in primary healthcare in Sao Paulo, Brazil. The clinical interview schedule-revised and demographic questionnaires were administered between the 20th and 30th weeks of gestation. Information on infant weight and gestational age at birth were obtained from hospital records. Univariate analyses were used to examine the association between the main exposure and main outcomes. Statistical associations were examined with chiintervals (CI) for the main outcomes were obtained using a multivariable logistic regression model. Results. The prevalence of CMD during gestation was 33.6 (95% CI: 30.4-36.9). The follow-up rate was 99.5%. Sixty three (7.6%) newborns were classified as LBW and 56 (6.9%) were classified as PTB. CMD during pregnancy was not associated with risk of PTB (adjusted OR:1.03, 95% CI: 0.57-1.88) or LBW (adjusted OR:1.09, 95% CI: 0.62-1.91). Conclusions. CMD prevalence is high among low-income and low-risk pregnant women attended by public health services in a middle-income country, but not confer an increased risk for adverse obstetric outcome.

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Methods We pooled data from 17 case-control studies including 12 716 cases and the 17 438 controls. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated for associations between body mass index (BMI) at different ages and HNC risk, adjusted for age, sex, centre, race, education, tobacco smoking and alcohol consumption. Results Adjusted ORs (95% CIs) were elevated for people with BMI at reference (date of diagnosis for cases and date of selection for controls) < 18.5 kg/m(2) (2.13, 1.75-2.58) and reduced for BMI > 25.0-30.0 kg/m(2) (0.52, 0.44-0.60) and BMI >= 30 kg/m(2) (0.43, 0.33-0.57), compared with BMI > 18.5-25.0 kg/m(2). These associations did not differ by age, sex, tumour site or control source. Although the increased risk among people with BMI < 18.5 kg/m(2) was not modified by tobacco smoking or alcohol drinking, the inverse association for people with BMI > 25 kg/m(2) was present only in smokers and drinkers. Conclusions In our large pooled analysis, leanness was associated with increased HNC risk regardless of smoking and drinking status, although reverse causality cannot be excluded. The reduced risk among overweight or obese people may indicate body size is a modifier of the risk associated with smoking and drinking. Further clarification may be provided by analyses of prospective cohort and mechanistic studies.

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The Leishmune (R) vaccine has been used in endemic areas to prevent canine visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil, but cytokine production induced by vaccination has rarely been investigated in dogs. This study aimed to evaluate the immune response of dogs vaccinated with Leishmune FML vaccine (Fort Dodge) against total antigen of Leishmania (Leishmania) chagasi (TAg) and FML. Twenty healthy dogs from Aracatuba, Sao Paulo, Brazil, an endemic leishmaniasis area, received three consecutive subcutaneous injection of Leishmune vaccine at 21-day intervals. PBMC were isolated before and 10 days after completing vaccination and lymphoproliferative response and antibody production against FML or total promastigote antigen were tested. Cytokines IFN-gamma, IL-4 and TNF-alpha were measured in culture supernatant and CD4+/CD25+ and CD8+/CD25+ T cell presence was determined. Analysis of the data indicated that the vaccine conferred humoral responses (100%) against both antigens and cellular immunity to FML (85%) and total antigen (80%), the supernatant of cultured cells stimulated with TAg and FML showed an increase in IFN-gamma (P < 0.05), and the vaccine reduced CD4+/CD25+ T cell presence compared to that observed before vaccination. These responses may constitute part of the immune mechanism induced by Leishmune. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Background: Marijuana contains carcinogens similar to tobacco smoke and has been suggested by relatively small studies to increase the risk of head and neck cancer (HNC). Because tobacco is a major risk factor for HNC, large studies with substantial numbers of never tobacco users could help to clarify whether marijuana smoking is independently associated with HNC risk. Methods: We pooled self-reported interview data on marijuana smoking and known HNC risk factors on 4,029 HNC cases and 5,015 controls from five case-control studies within the INHANCE Consortium. Subanalyses were conducted among never tobacco users (493 cases and 1,813 controls) and among individuals who did not consume alcohol or smoke tobacco (237 cases and 887 controls). Results: The risk of HNC was not elevated by ever marijuana smoking [odds ratio (OR), 0.88; 95% confidence intervals (95% Cl), 0.67-1.16], and there was no increasing risk associated with increasing frequency, duration, or cumulative consumption of marijuana smoking. An increased risk of HNC associated with marijuana use was not detected among never tobacco users (OR, 0.93; 95% Cl, 0.63-1.37; three studies) nor among individuals who did not drink alcohol and smoke tobacco (OR, 1.06; 95% Cl, 0.47-2.38; two studies). Conclusion: Our results are consistent with the notion that infrequent marijuana smoking does not confer a risk of these malignancies. Nonetheless, because the prevalence of frequent marijuana smoking was low in most of the contributing studies, we could not rule out a moderately increased risk, particularly among subgroups without exposure to tobacco and alcohol. (Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2009;18(5):1544-51)

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Background Recent studies support an important role for human papillomavirus (HPV) in a subgroup of head and neck squamous cell carcinomas (HNSCC). We have evaluated the HPV deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) prevalence as well as the association between serological response to HPV infection and HNSCC in two distinct populations from Central Europe (CE) and Latin America (LA). Methods Cases (n = 2214) and controls (n = 3319) were recruited from 1998 to 2003, using a similar protocol including questionnaire and blood sample collection. Tumour DNA from 196 fresh tissue biopsies was analysed for multiple HPV types followed by an HPV type-specific polymerase chain reaction (PCR) protocol towards the E7 gene from HPV 16. Using multiplex serology, serum samples were analysed for antibodies to 17 HPV types. Statistical analysis included the estimation of adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and the respective 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results HPV16 E7 DNA prevalence among cases was 3.1% (6/196), including 4.4% in the oropharynx (3/68), 3.8% in the hypopharynx/larynx (3/78) and 0% among 50 cases of oral cavity carcinomas. Positivity for both HPV16 E6 and E7 antibodies was associated with a very high risk of oropharyngeal cancer (OR = 179, 95% CI 35.8-899) and hypopharyngeal/laryngeal cancer (OR = 14.9, 95% CI 2.92-76.1). Conclusions A very low prevalence of HPV DNA and serum antibodies was observed among cases in both CE and LA. The proportion of head and neck cancer caused by HPV may vary substantially between different geographical regions and studies that are designed to evaluate the impact of HPV vaccination on HNSCC need to consider this heterogeneity.

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Nocturnal melatonin pineal output is triggered by sympathetic outflow. Antidepressants that block norepinephrine neuronal uptake should increase pineal function. This can be monitored by measuring 6-sulfatoximelatonin (aMT6s), the main melatonin metabolite, in the urine. In this study, we compared the excretion of aMT6s before (baseline), one, and 21 days after administration of clomipramine to healthy subjects (n = 32). At the end of treatment, subjects were divided into responders (n = 12) and non-responders (n = 20) according to the improvement in their emotional state in three out of four domains (interpersonal tolerance, efficiency, well-being and feeling different from the usual self). There was no difference in aMT6s before clomipramine between responders and non-responders in any of the time intervals analysed (06:00-12:00, 12:00-18:00, 18:00-24:00 and 24:00-06:00 hours). At day one, but not at day 21, the fraction of aMT6s excreted during the time interval 24:00-06:00, relative to the total amount excreted by each subject per day, was significantly higher (P = 0.0287) than baseline (0.57 +/- 0.04) in responders. No significant difference was observed in non-responders. The increase in pineal function induced by clomipramine was restricted to day one, indicating that long-lasting adaptation restores pineal function. In addition, the day one increase in aMT6s was significantly increased only in the responders group, raising the possibility that the blocking of neuronal uptake is predictive of emotional improvement.

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Gemcitabine is a chemotherapy agent that may cause unpredictable side effects. In this report, we describe a fatal gemcitabine-induced pulmonary toxicity in a patient with gallbladder metastatic adenocarcinoma. A 72-year-old patient was submitted to an elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy, and a tubular adenocarcinoma in the gallbladder was incidentally diagnosed. CT scan and ultrasound before the surgery did not show any tumor. After the surgery a Pet scan was positive for a hot-spot in the left colon. The colonic lesion was conveniently removed and the histology evaluation confirmed the diagnosis of adenocarcinoma tubular. The patient was then submitted to three sections of 1,600 mg/m(2) of gemcitabine with intervals of 1 week. Three weeks later he developed severe respiratory distress. A helicoidal CT scan showed diffuse and severe interstitial pneumonitis, and lung biopsy confirmed accelerated usual interstitial pneumonia consistent with drug-induced toxicity. The patient presented unfavorable evolution with progressive worsening of respiratory function, hypotension, and renal failure. He died 1 month later in spite of methylprednisolone pulse therapy, large spectrum antimicrobial therapy, and full support of respiratory, hemodynamic and renal systems. Gemcitabine-induced pulmonary toxicity is usually a dramatic condition. Physicians should suspect pulmonary toxicity in patients with respiratory distress after gemcitabine chemotherapy, mainly in elderly patients.

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Methods: Six adult mixed breed dogs (two males and four females) weighing 7 to 14 kg (10 center dot 5 +/- 1 center dot 5 kg) and aged two to five years were used. Each dog received both treatments in random order: levobupivacaine alone (LBA; n=6) or levobupivacaine plus hyaluronidase (LBH; n=6) administered in the lumbosacral epidural space. Systemic effects, spread and duration of anaesthesia and motor block were determined before treatment and at predetermined intervals. Results: The duration of local anaesthesia was 90 +/- 10 minutes (P=0 center dot 001) for LBH treatment and 150 +/- 15 minutes for LBA treatment. In the LBH treatment, anaesthesia reached the T12 to T13 dermatome and in the LBA treatment it reached the T11 to T12 dermatome in all animals in 5 and 15 minutes, respectively. Complete motor blockade was 75 +/- 12 minutes (P=0 center dot 01) and 120 +/- 15 minutes for LBH and LBA treatments, respectively. Clinical Significance: Hyaluronidase added to levobupivacaine significantly shortens the duration of epidural anaesthesia with the same dermatome spread into the epidural space in dogs.

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OBJECTIVE center dot To evaluate early trifecta outcomes after robotic-assisted radical prostatectomy (RARP) performed by a high-volume surgeon. PATIENTS AND METHODS center dot We evaluated prospectively 1100 consecutive patients who underwent RARP performed by one surgeon. In all, 541 men were considered potent before RARP; of these 404 underwent bilateral full nerve sparing and were included in this analysis. center dot Baseline and postoperative urinary and sexual functions were assessed using self-administered validated questionnaires. center dot Postoperative continence was defined as the use of no pads; potency was defined as the ability to achieve and maintain satisfactory erections for sexual intercourse > 50% of times, with or without the use of oral phosphodiesterase type 5 inhibitors; Biochemical recurrence (BCR) was defined as two consecutive PSA levels of > 0.2 ng/mL after RARP. center dot Results were compared between three age groups: Group 1, < 55 years, Group 2, 56-65 years and Group 3, > 65 years. RESULTS center dot The trifecta rates at 6 weeks, 3, 6, 12, and 18 months after RARP were 42.8%, 65.3%, 80.3%, 86% and 91%, respectively. center dot There were no statistically significant differences in the continence and BCR-free rates between the three age groups at all postoperative intervals analysed. center dot Nevertheless, younger men had higher potency rates and shorter time to recovery of sexual function when compared with older men at 6 weeks, 3, 6 and 12 months after RARP (P < 0.01 at all time points). center dot Similarly, younger men also had a shorter time to achieving the trifecta and had higher trifecta rates at 6 weeks, 3 and 6 months after RARP compared with older men (P < 0.01 at all time points). CONCLUSION center dot RARP offers excellent short-term trifecta outcomes when performed by an experienced surgeon. center dot Younger men had a shorter time to achieving the trifecta and higher overall trifecta rates when compared with older men at 6 weeks, 3 and 6 months after RARP.

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Background: The relation between left ventricular filing velocities determined by Doppler echocardiography and autonomic nervous system function assessed by heart rate variability (HRV) is unclear. The aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of the autonomic nervous system assessed by the time and frequency domain indices of HRV in the Doppler indices of left ventricular diastolic filling velocities in patients without heart disease. Methods: We studied 451 healthy individuals (255 female [56.4%]) with normal blood pressure, electrocardiogram, chest x-ray, and treadmill electrocardiographic exercise stress test results, with a mean age of 43 +/- 12 (range 15-82) years, who underwent transthoracic Doppler echocardiography and 24-hour electrocardiographic ambulatory monitoring. We studied indices of HRV on time (standard deviation [SD] of all normal sinus RR intervals during 24 hours, SD of averaged normal sinus RR intervals for all 5-minute segments, mean of the SD of all normal sinus RR intervals for all 5-minute segments, root-mean-square of the successive normal sinus RR interval difference, and percentage of successive normal sinus RR intervals > 50 ms) and frequency (low frequency, high frequency, very low frequency, low frequency/high frequency ratio) domains relative to peak flow velocity during rapid passive filling phase (E), atrial contraction (A), E/A ratio, E-wave deceleration time, and isovolumic relaxation time. Statistical analysis was performed with Pearson correlation and logistic regression. Results: Peak flow velocity during rapid passive filling phase (E) and atrial contraction (A), E/A ratio, and deceleration time of early mitral inflow did not demonstrate a significant correlation with indices of HRV in time and frequency domain. We found that the E/A ratio was < 1 in 45 individuals (10%). Individuals with an E/A ratio < 1 had lower indices of HRV in frequency domain (except low frequency/high frequency) and lower indices of the mean of the SD of all normal sinus RR intervals for all 5-minute segments, root-mean-square of the successive normal sinus RR interval difference, and percentage of successive normal sinus RR intervals > 50 ms in time domain. Logistic regression demonstrated that an E/A ratio < 1 was associated with lower HF. Conclusion: Individuals with no evidence of heart disease and an E/A ratio < 1 demonstrated a significant decrease in indexes of HRV associated with parasympathetic modulation. (J Am Soc Echocardiogr 2010;23: 762-5.)