179 resultados para risk valuation


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Cancers of the upper aerodigestive tract (UADT; including oral cavity, pharynx, larynx and oesophagus) have high incidence rates all over the world, and they are especially frequent in some parts of Latin America. However, the data on the role of the major risk factors in these areas are still limited. We have evaluated the role of alcohol and tobacco consumption, based on 2,252 upper aerodigestive squamous-cell carcinoma cases and 1,707 controls from seven centres in Brazil, Argentina, and Cuba. We show that alcohol drinkers have a risk of UADT cancers that is up to five times higher than that of never-drinkers. A very strong effect of aperitifs and spirits as compared to other alcohol types was observed, with the ORs reaching 12.76 (CI 5.37-30.32) for oesophagus. Tobacco smokers were up to six times more likely to develop aerodigestive cancers than never-smokers, with the ORs reaching 11.14 (7.72-16.08) among current smokers for hypopharynx and larynx cancer. There was a trend for a decrease in risk after quitting alcohol drinking or tobacco smoking for all sites. The interactive effect of alcohol and tobacco was more than multiplicative. In this study, 65% of all UADT cases were attributable to a combined effect of alcohol and tobacco use. In this largest study on UADT cancer in Latin America, we have shown for the first time that a prevailing majority of UADT cancer cases is due to a combined effect of alcohol and tobacco use and could be prevented by quitting the use of either of these two agents.

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Purpose LATIN is a multinational case-control study designed to identify risk factors for agranulocytosis and to estimate the incidence rate of the disease in some Latin American countries. Methods Each study site in Brazil, Argentina and Mexico conducted an active search of agranulocytosis patients in hematology clinics and looked for possible associations with drug use. Results The overall incidence rate was 0.38 cases per 1 million inhabitant-years. Agranulocytosis patients more often took medications already associated with agranulocytosis than controls (p=0.01), mainly methimazole (OR 44.2, 95% CI 6.8 to infinity). The population attributable risk percentage (etiologic fraction) was 56%. The use of nutrient supplements was more frequent among patients than controls (p=0.03). Conclusions Agranulocytosis seems to be very rare in Latin America. The lower than expected number of cases identified during the study period precluded estimation of the risk associated to individual drugs, with the exception of methimazol. However, this is the longest series of agranulocytosis cases ever gathered in Latin America, and information on drug exposures was collected prospectively. The conclusion is that drug-induced agranulocytosis does not seem to be a major public health problem in the study regions.

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Although active tobacco smoking has been identified as a major risk factor for head and neck cancer, involuntary smoking has not been adequately evaluated because of the relatively low statistical power in previous studies. We took advantage of data pooled in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology Consortium to evaluate the role of involuntary smoking in head and neck carcinogenesis. Involuntary smoking exposure data were pooled across six case-control studies in Central Europe, Latin America, and the United States. Adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were estimated for 542 cases and 2,197 controls who reported never using tobacco, and the heterogeneity among the study-specific ORs was assessed. In addition, stratified analyses were done by subsite. No effect of ever involuntary smoking exposure either at home or at work was observed for head and neck cancer overall. However, long duration of involuntary smoking exposure at home and at work was associated with an increased risk (OR for >15 years at home, 1.60; 95% CI, 1.12-2.28; P(trend) <0-01; OR for >15 years at work, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.04-2.30; P(trend) = 0.13). The effect of duration of involuntary smoking exposure at home was stronger for pharyngeal and laryngeal cancers than for other subsites. An association between involuntary smoking exposure and the risk of head and neck cancer, particularly pharyngeal and laryngeal cancers, was observed for long duration of exposure. These results are consistent with those for active smoking and suggest that elimination of involuntary smoking exposure might reduce head and neck cancer risk among never smokers.

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Objective: Bronchial typical carcinoid tumors are tow-grade malignancies. However, metastases are diagnosed in some patients. Predicting the individual risk of these metastases to determine patients eligible for a radical lymphadenectomy and patients to be followed-up because of distant metastasis risk is relevant. Our objective was to screen for predictive criteria of bronchial typical carcinoid tumor aggressiveness based on a logistic regression model using clinical, pathological and biomolecular data. Methods: A multicenter retrospective cohort study, including 330 consecutive patients operated on for bronchial typical carcinoid tumors and followed-up during a period more than 10 years in two university hospitals was performed. Selected data to predict the individual risk for both nodal and distant metastasis were: age, gender, TNM staging, tumor diameter and location (central/peripheral), tumor immunostaining index of p53 and Ki67, Bcl2 and the extracellular density of neoformed microvessels and of collagen/elastic extracellular fibers. Results: Nodal and distant metastasis incidence was 11% and 5%, respectively. Univariate analysis identified all the studied biomarkers as related to nodal metastasis. Multivariate analysis identified a predictive variable for nodal metastasis: neo angiogenesis, quantified by the neoformed pathological microvessels density. Distant metastasis was related to mate gender. Discussion: Predictive models based on clinical and biomolecular data could be used to predict individual risk for metastasis. Patients under a high individual risk for lymph node metastasis should be considered as candidates to mediastinal lymphadenectomy. Those under a high risk of distant metastasis should be followed-up as having an aggressive disease. Conclusion: Individual risk prediction of bronchial typical carcinoid tumor metastasis for patients operated on can be calculated in function of biomolecular data. Prediction models can detect high-risk patients and help surgeons to identify patients requiring radical lymphadenectomy and help oncologists to identify those as having an aggressive disease requiring prolonged follow-up. (C) 2008 European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Background: HTLV-1/2 diagnosis in high-risk populations from Sao Paulo, Brazil has been problematic due a high proportion of seroindeterminate results. Objectives: To confirm and extend previous findings regarding HTLV-1/2 diagnosis in this geographic area. Study design: Sera from 2312 patients were tested for HTLV-1/2 antibodies using enzyme immunoassay (EIA) and Western blot (WB) analysis. Patients were from AIDS Reference Centers (Group 1; 1393 patients) and HTLV out-patient clinics (Group 11; 919 patients). Results were analyzed according to patients` age, gender, and clinic type. Results: HTLV-1 and HTLV-2 were detected in both groups. Among seropositive females, HTLV-2 was slightly more common in Group 1 (54.5%), while HTLV-1 prevailed in Group II (73.9%). Males from Group II had a higher percentage of HTLV-seroindeterminate results. No correlation between HTLV serological results and age was detected. Temporal analyses disclosed a high number of HTLV-seroindeterminate samples, and a large spectrum of indeterminate WB profiles. GD21 and/or rgp46-II bands were detected in 34.6% of sera from Group 1, and a p24 or p19 band was detected in 35.3% of sera from Group II. Conclusions: High rates of HTLV-indeterminate serological patterns during temporal analyses were confirmed in high-risk populations from Sao Paulo, Brazil. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Background. Chikungunya, an alphavirus of the Togaviridae family, causes a febrile disease transmitted to humans by the bite of infected Aedes mosquitoes. This infection is reaching endemic levels in many Southeast Asian countries. Symptoms include sudden onset of fever, chills, headache, nausea, vomiting, joint pain with or without swelling, low back pain, and rash. According to the World Health Organization, there are 2 billion people living in Aedes-infested areas. In addition, traveling to these areas is popular, making the potential risk of infections transmitted by the bite of infected Aedes mosquitoes very high. Methods. We proposed a mathematical model to estimate the risk of acquiring chikungunya fever in an Aedes-infested area by taking the prevalence of dengue fever into account. The basic reproduction number for chikungunya fever R-0chik can be written as a function of the basic reproduction number of dengue R-0dengue by calculating the ratio R-0chik/R-0dengue. From R-0chik, we estimated the force of infection and the risk of acquiring the disease both for local residents of a dengue-endemic area and for travelers to this area. Results. We calculated that R-0chik is 64.4% that of R-0dengue. The model was applied to a hypothetical situation, namely, estimating the individual risk of acquiring chikungunya fever in a dengue-endemic area, both for local inhabitants (22% in steady state) and for visiting travelers (from 0.31% to 1.23% depending on the time spent in the area). Conclusions. The method proposed based on the output of a dynamical model is innovative and provided an estimation of the risk of infection, both for local inhabitants and for visiting travelers.

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In Brazil, sugarcane fields are often burned to facilitate manual harvesting, and this burning causes environmental pollution from the large amounts of soot released into the atmosphere. This material contains numerous organic compounds such as PAHs. In this study, the concentrations of PAHs in two particulate-matter fractions (PM(2.5) and PM(10)) in the city of Araraquara (SE Brazil, with around 200,000 inhabitants and surrounded by sugarcane plantations) were determined during the sugarcane harvest (HV) and non-harvest (NHV) seasons in 2008 and 2009. The sampling strategy included four campaigns, with 60 samples in the NHV season and 220 samples in the HV season. The PM(2.5) and PM(10) fractions were collected using a dichotomous sampler (10 L min(-1), 24 h) with Teflon (TM) filters. The filter sets were extracted (ultrasonic bath with hexane/acetone (1:1 v/v)) and analyzed by HPLC/Fluorescence. The median concentration for total PAHs (PM(2.5) in 2009) was 0.99 ng m(-3) (NHV) and 3.3 ng m(-3) (HV). In the HV season, the total concentration of carcinogenic PAHs (benz(a)anthracene, benzo(b)fluoranthene, benzo(k)fluoranthene, and benzo(a)pyrene) was 5 times higher than in the NHV season. B(a)P median concentrations were 0.017 ng m(-3) and 0.12 ng m(-3) for the NHV and HV seasons, respectively. The potential cancer risk associated with exposure through inhalation of these compounds was estimated based on the benzo[a]pyrene toxic equivalence (BaP(eq)), where the overall toxicity of a PAR mixture is defined by the concentration of each compound multiplied by its relative toxic equivalence factor (TEF). BaP(eq) median (2008 and 2009 years) ranged between 0.65 and 1.0 ng m(-3) and 1.2-1.4 ng m(-3) for the NHV and HV seasons, respectively. Considering that the maximum permissible BaPeq in ambient air is 1 ng m(-3), related to the increased carcinogenic risk, our data suggest that the level of human exposure to PAHs in cities surrounded by sugarcane crops where the burning process is used is cause for concern. (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

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Background Mucosal leishmaniasis is caused mainly by Leishmania braziliensis and it occurs months or years after cutaneous lesions. This progressive disease destroys cartilages and osseous structures from face, pharynx and larynx. Objective and methods The aim of this study was to analyse the significance of clinical and epidemiological findings, diagnosis and treatment with the outcome and recurrence of mucosal leishmaniasis through binary logistic regression model from 140 patients with mucosal leishmaniasis from a Brazilian centre. Results The median age of patients was 57.5 and systemic arterial hypertension was the most prevalent secondary disease found in patients with mucosal leishmaniasis (43%). Diabetes, chronic nephropathy and viral hepatitis, allergy and coagulopathy were found in less than 10% of patients. Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection was found in 7 of 140 patients (5%). Rhinorrhea (47%) and epistaxis (75%) were the most common symptoms. N-methyl-glucamine showed a cure rate of 91% and recurrence of 22%. Pentamidine showed a similar rate of cure (91%) and recurrence (25%). Fifteen patients received itraconazole with a cure rate of 73% and recurrence of 18%. Amphotericin B was the drug used in 30 patients with 82% of response with a recurrence rate of 7%. The binary logistic regression analysis demonstrated that systemic arterial hypertension and HIV infection were associated with failure of the treatment (P < 0.05). Conclusion The current first-line mucosal leishmaniasis therapy shows an adequate cure but later recurrence. HIV infection and systemic arterial hypertension should be investigated before start the treatment of mucosal leishmaniasis. Conflicts of interest The authors are not part of any associations or commercial relationships that might represent conflicts of interest in the writing of this study (e.g. pharmaceutical stock ownership, consultancy, advisory board membership, relevant patents, or research funding).

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Background: Many factors have been associated with the onset and maintenance of depressive symptoms in later life, although this knowledge is yet to be translated into significant health gains for the population. This study gathered information about common modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors for depression with the aim of developing a practical probabilistic model of depression that can be used to guide risk reduction strategies. \Methods: A cross-sectional study was undertaken of 20,677 community-dwelling Australians aged 60 years or over in contact with their general practitioner during the preceding 12 months. Prevalent depression (minor or major) according to the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) assessment was the main outcome of interest. Other measured exposures included self-reported age, gender, education, loss of mother or father before age 15 years, physical or sexual abuse before age 15 years, marital status, financial stress, social support, smoking and alcohol use, physical activity, obesity, diabetes, hypertension, and prevalent cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases and cancer. Results: The mean age of participants was 71.7 +/- 7.6 years and 57.9% were women. Depression was present in 1665 (8.0%) of our subjects. Multivariate logistic regression showed depression was independently associated with age older than 75 years, childhood adverse experiences, adverse lifestyle practices (smoking, risk alcohol use, physical inactivity), intermediate health hazards (obesity, diabetes and hypertension), comorbid medical conditions (clinical history of coronary heart disease, stroke, asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, emphysema or cancers), and social or financial strain. We stratified the exposures to build a matrix that showed that the probability of depression increased progressively with the accumulation of risk factors, from less than 3% for those with no adverse factors to more than 80% for people reporting the maximum number of risk factors. Conclusions: Our probabilistic matrix can be used to estimate depression risk and to guide the introduction of risk reduction strategies. Future studies should now aim to clarify whether interventions designed to mitigate the impact of risk factors can change the prevalence and incidence of depression in later life.

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Aims: To evaluate the role of hormonal contraceptives as a risk factor of high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV), cervical intraepithelial lesions (CIN) and cervical cancer in our multi-center population-based LAMS (Latin American Screening) study. Methods: A cohort study with >12,000 women from Brazil and Argentina using logistic regression to analyze the covariates of hormonal contraception (HOC - oral, injections, patches, implants, vaginal ring and progesterone intrauterine system) use followed by multivariate modeling for predictors of HR-HPV and CIN2+. Results: HR-HPV infection was a consistent risk factor of high-grade CIN in all three groups of women. The length of HOC use was not significantly related to high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSIL)+ Pap (p = 0.069), LSIL+ Pap (p = 0.781) or ASCUS+ (p = 0.231). The same was true with the length of HOC use and histology CIN3+ (p = 0.115) and CIN2+ (p = 0.515). Frequently, HOC users have previously shown more HPV-related lesions, as well as lower HPV prevalence if they were current smokers. But HOC use and time of usage were not independent risk factors of either HR-HPV infection or high-grade CIN using multiple logistic regressions. Conclusions: No evidence was found for an association between the use of HOC with an increased risk for HR-HPV infection or high-grade CIN in this cohort. Copyright (C) 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel

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Osteonecrosis of the jaw (ONJ), previously an entity associated with radiation therapy to the head and neck, has been observed in patients treated with bisphosphonates. Patients with metastatic breast cancer and myelomatous bone disease, commonly treated with high-potency nitrogen-containing bisphosphonates for a prolonged period of time, have the greatest risk of ONJ development. The reported frequency of ONJ ranges from 0.6% to 6.2% in breast cancer and from 1.7% to 15% in patients with multiple myeloma. Osteonecrosis of the jaw has also been observed in patients with other cancers such as prostate cancer and in benign bone disorders such as osteoporosis and Paget`s disease in which the incidence is low. Risk factors associated with the development of ONJ include dental extractions, length of bisphosphonate treatment, and the type of bisphosphonate used. In this review, we summarize the reported incidence and risk factors associated with ONJ.

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Objective: Although suicide is a leading cause of death worldwide, clinicians and researchers lack a data-driven method to assess the risk of suicide attempts. This study reports the results of an analysis of a large cross-national epidemiologic survey database that estimates the 12-month prevalence of suicidal behaviors, identifies risk factors for suicide attempts, and combines these factors to create a risk index for 12-month suicide attempts separately for developed and developing countries. Method: Data come from the World Health Organization (WHO) World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys (conducted 2001-2007), in which 108,705 adults from 21 countries were interviewed using the WHO Composite International Diagnostic Interview. The survey assessed suicidal behaviors and potential risk factors across multiple domains, including socio-demographic characteristics, parent psychopathology, childhood adversities, DSM-IV disorders, and history of suicidal behavior. Results: Twelve-month prevalence estimates of suicide ideation, plans, and attempts are 2.0%, 0.6%, and 0.3%, respectively, for developed countries and 2.1%, 0.7%, and 0.4%, respectively, for developing countries. Risk factors for suicidal behaviors in both developed and developing countries include female sex, younger age, lower education and income, unmarried status, unemployment, parent psychopathology, childhood adversities, and presence of diverse 12-month DSM-IV mental disorders. Combining risk factors from multiple domains produced risk indices that accurately predicted 12-month suicide attempts in both developed and developing countries (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.74-0.80). Conclusions: Suicidal behaviors occur at similar rates in both developed and developing countries. Risk indices assessing multiple domains can predict suicide attempts with fairly good accuracy and may be useful in aiding clinicians in the prediction of these behaviors. J Clin Psychiatry 2010;71(12):1617-1628 (C) Copyright 2010 Physicians Postgraduate Press, Inc.

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Background: Increasing age and cholesterol levels, male gender, and family history of early coronary heart disease (CHD) are associated with early onset of CHD in familial hypercholesterolemia (FH). Objective: Assess subclinical atherosclerosis by computed tomography coronary angiography (CTCA) and its association with clinical and laboratorial parameters in asymptomatic FH subjects. Methods: 102 FH subjects (36% male, 45 +/- 13 years, LDL-c 280 +/- 54 mg/dL) and 35 controls (40% male, 46 +/- 12 years, LDL-c 103 +/- 18 mg/dL) were submitted to CTCA. Plaques were divided into calcified, mixed and non-calcified; luminal stenosis was characterized as >50% obstruction. Results: FH had a greater atherosclerotic burden represented by higher number of patients with: plaques (48% vs. 14%, p = 0.0005), stenosis (19% vs. 3%, p = 0.015), segments with plaques (2.05 +/- 2.85 vs. 0.43 +/- 1.33, p = 0.0016) and calcium scores (55 perpendicular to 129 vs. 38 perpendicular to 140, p = 0.0028). After multivariate analysis, determinants of plaque presence were increasing age (OR = 2.06, for age change of 10 years, CI95%: 1.38-3.07, p < 0.001) and total cholesterol (OR = 1.86, for cholesterol change by 1 standard deviation, CI95%: 1.09-3.15, p = 0.027). Coronary calcium score was associated with the presence of stenosis (OR = 1.54; CI95%: 1.27-1.86, p < 0.001, for doubling the calcium score). Male gender was directly associated with the presence of non-calcified plaques (OR: 15.45, CI95% 1.72-138.23, p = 0.014) and inversely with calcified plaques (OR = 0.21, CI95%: 0.05-0.84, p = 0.027). Family history of early CHD was associated with the presence of mixed plaques (OR = 4.90, CI95%: 1.32-18.21, p = 0.018). Conclusions: Patients with FH had an increased burden of coronary atherosclerosis by CTCA. The burden of atherosclerosis and individual plaque subtypes differed with the presence of other associated risk factors, with age and cholesterol being most important. A coronary calcium score of zero ruled out obstructive disease in this higher risk population. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Study Objectives: Metabolic syndrome (MetSyn) increases overall cardiovascular risk. MetSyn is also strongly associated with obstructive sleep apnea (OSA), and these 2 conditions share similar comorbidities. Whether OSA increases cardiovascular risk in patients with the MetSyn has not been investigated. We examined how the presence of USA in patients with MetSyn affected hemodynamic and autonomic variables associated with poor cardiovascular outcome. Design: Prospective clinical study. Participants: We studied 36 patients with MetSyn (ATP-III) divided into 2 groups matched for age and sex: (1) MetSyn+OSA (n = 18) and (2) MetSyn-OSA (n = 18). Measurements: USA was defined by an apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) > 15 events/hour by polysomnography. We recorded muscle sympathetic nerve activity (MSNA - microneurography), heart rate (HR), and blood pressure (BP - Finapres). Baroreflex sensitivity (BRS) was analyzed by spontaneous BP and HR fluctuations. Results: MSNA (34 +/- 2 vs 28 +/- 1 bursts/min, P = 0.02) and mean BP (111 +/- 3 vs. 99 +/- 2 mm Hg, P = 0.003) were higher in patients with MetSyn+OSA versus patients with MetSyn-USA. Patients with MetSyn+OSA had lower spontaneous BRS for increases (7.6 +/- 0.6 vs 12.2 +/- 1.2 msec/mm Hg, P = 0.003) and decreases (7.2 +/- 0.6 vs 11.9 +/- 1.6 msec/mm Hg, P = 0.01) in BP. MSNA was correlated with AHI (r = 0.48; P = 0.009) and minimum nocturnal oxygen saturation (r = -0.38, P = 0.04). Conclusion: Patients with MetSyn and comorbid USA have higher BP, higher sympathetic drive, and diminished BRS, compared with patients with MetSyn without USA. These adverse cardiovascular and autonomic consequences of USA may be associated with poorer outcomes in these patients. Moreover, increased BP and sympathetic drive in patients with MetSyn+OSA may be linked, in part, to impairment of baroreflex gain.

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Background Suicide is a leading cause of death worldwide, but the precise effect of childhood adversities as risk factors for the onset and persistence of suicidal behaviour (suicide ideation, plans and attempts) are not well understood. Aims To examine the associations between childhood adversities as risk factors for the onset and persistence of suicidal behaviour across 21 countries worldwide. Method Respondents from nationally representative samples (n = 55 299) were interviewed regarding childhood adversities that occurred before the age of 18 years and lifetime suicidal behaviour. Results Childhood adversities were associated with an increased risk of suicide attempt and ideation in both bivariate and multivariate models (odds ratio range 1.2-5.7). The risk increased with the number of adversities experienced, but at a decreasing rate. Sexual and physical abuse were consistently the strongest risk factors for both the onset and persistence of suicidal behaviour, especially during adolescence. Associations remained similar after additional adjustment for respondents` lifetime mental disorder status. Conclusions Childhood adversities (especially intrusive or aggressive adversities) are powerful predictors of the onset and persistence of suicidal behaviours.