Log-modified Weibull regression models with censored data: Sensitivity and residual analysis

This paper proposes a regression model considering the modified Weibull distribution. This distribution can be used to model bathtub-shaped failure rate functions. Assuming censored data, we consider maximum likelihood and Jackknife estimators for the parameters of the model. We derive the appropriate matrices for assessing local influence on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes and we also present some ways to perform global influence. Besides, for different parameter settings, sample sizes and censoring percentages, various simulations are performed and the empirical distribution of the modified deviance residual is displayed and compared with the standard normal distribution. These studies suggest that the residual analysis usually performed in normal linear regression models can be straightforwardly extended for a martingale-type residual in log-modified Weibull regression models with censored data. Finally, we analyze a real data set under log-modified Weibull regression models. A diagnostic analysis and a model checking based on the modified deviance residual are performed to select appropriate models. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On estimation and influence diagnostics for zero-inflated negative binomial regression models

The zero-inflated negative binomial model is used to account for overdispersion detected in data that are initially analyzed under the zero-Inflated Poisson model A frequentist analysis a jackknife estimator and a non-parametric bootstrap for parameter estimation of zero-inflated negative binomial regression models are considered In addition an EM-type algorithm is developed for performing maximum likelihood estimation Then the appropriate matrices for assessing local influence on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes and some ways to perform global influence analysis are derived In order to study departures from the error assumption as well as the presence of outliers residual analysis based on the standardized Pearson residuals is discussed The relevance of the approach is illustrated with a real data set where It is shown that zero-inflated negative binomial regression models seems to fit the data better than the Poisson counterpart (C) 2010 Elsevier B V All rights reserved

Regression models for grouped survival data: Estimation and sensitivity analysis

In this study, regression models are evaluated for grouped survival data when the effect of censoring time is considered in the model and the regression structure is modeled through four link functions. The methodology for grouped survival data is based on life tables, and the times are grouped in k intervals so that ties are eliminated. Thus, the data modeling is performed by considering the discrete models of lifetime regression. The model parameters are estimated by using the maximum likelihood and jackknife methods. To detect influential observations in the proposed models, diagnostic measures based on case deletion, which are denominated global influence, and influence measures based on small perturbations in the data or in the model, referred to as local influence, are used. In addition to those measures, the local influence and the total influential estimate are also employed. Various simulation studies are performed and compared to the performance of the four link functions of the regression models for grouped survival data for different parameter settings, sample sizes and numbers of intervals. Finally, a data set is analyzed by using the proposed regression models. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Double generalized linear model for tissue culture proportion data: a Bayesian perspective

Joint generalized linear models and double generalized linear models (DGLMs) were designed to model outcomes for which the variability can be explained using factors and/or covariates. When such factors operate, the usual normal regression models, which inherently exhibit constant variance, will under-represent variation in the data and hence may lead to erroneous inferences. For count and proportion data, such noise factors can generate a so-called overdispersion effect, and the use of binomial and Poisson models underestimates the variability and, consequently, incorrectly indicate significant effects. In this manuscript, we propose a DGLM from a Bayesian perspective, focusing on the case of proportion data, where the overdispersion can be modeled using a random effect that depends on some noise factors. The posterior joint density function was sampled using Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithms, allowing inferences over the model parameters. An application to a data set on apple tissue culture is presented, for which it is shown that the Bayesian approach is quite feasible, even when limited prior information is available, thereby generating valuable insight for the researcher about its experimental results.

Large Woody Debris Input and Its Influence on Channel Structure in Agricultural Lands of Southeast Brazil

Riparian forests are important for the structure and functioning of stream ecosystems, providing structural components such as large woody debris (LWD). Changes in these forests will cause modifications in the LWD input to streams, affecting their structure. In order to assess the influence of riparian forests changes in LWD supply, 15 catchments (third and fourth order) with riparian forests at different conservation levels were selected for sampling. In each catchment we quantified the abundance, volume and diameter of LWD in stream channels; the number, area and volume of pools formed by LWD and basal area and tree diameter of riparian forest. We found that riparian forests were at a secondary successional stage with predominantly young trees (diameter at breast height < 10 cm) in all studied streams. Results showed that basal area and diameter of riparian forest differed between the stream groups (forested and non-forested), but tree density did not differ between groups. Differences were also observed in LWD abundance, volume, frequency of LWD pools with subunits and area and volume of LWD pools. LWD diameter, LWD that form pools diameter and frequency of LWD pools without subunits did not differ between stream groups. Regression analyses showed that LWD abundance and volume, and frequency of LWD pools (with and without subunits) were positively related with the proportion of riparian forest. LWD diameter was not correlated to riparian tree diameter. The frequency of LWD pools was correlated to the abundance and volume of LWD, but characteristics of these pools (area and volume) were not correlated to the diameter of LWD that formed the pools. These results show that alterations in riparian forest cause modifications in the LWD abundance and volume in the stream channel, affecting mainly the structural complexity of these ecosystems (reduction in the number and structural characteristics of LWD pools). Our results also demonstrate that riparian forest conservation actions must consider not only its extension, but also successional stage to guarantee the quantity and quality of LWD necessary to enable the structuring of stream channels.

The effectiveness of Eucalyptus barrier in containing the edge effect on a subtropical forest fragment in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil

Edge effects resulting from isolation and subsequent microclimatic changes are one of the most important threats to the forest fragments conservation. The efficiency of maintaining a barrier formed by three rows of Eucalyptus along the edge of a subtropical seasonal semi deciduous forest fragment, surrounded by Eucalyptus monoculture, was evaluated as a way of softening the microclimatic changes (light intensity, temperature and relative humidity) and the impacts of eucalypt mechanized harvesting on the native vegetation along the contact zone between the forest fragment and the plantation. The Eucalyptus barrier was effective in softening the microclimate. Light intensity was 35% lower in the presence of the barrier. The barrier also provided a reduction of 1 C in air temperature and increased in 3.4% in relative humidity throughout the year. The barrier was also effective in preventing the impact on native vegetation, avoiding damage to adult trees and preserving the regenerating forest stratum near the border, which was reduced to less than 20% in density and 50% in richness, with no such barrier. The barrier of Eucalyptus may, therefore, be recommended as an effective method to minimize the impacts of mechanized forest harvesting operations and mitigate the microclimatic conditions along the edge of forest fragments.

Can Eucalyptus invade native forest fragments close to commercial stands?

Some Eucalyptus species are widely used as a plantation crop in tropical and subtropical regions. One reason for this is the diversity of end uses, but the main reason is the high level of wood production obtained from commercial plantings. With the advancement of biotechnology it will be possible to expand the geographical area in which eucalypts can be used as commercial plantation crops, especially in regions with current climatic restrictions. Despite the popularity of eucalypts and their increasing range, questions still exist, in both traditional planting areas and in the new regions: Can eucalypts invade areas of native vegetation, causing damage to natural ecosystems biodiversity? The objective of this study it was to assess whether eucalypts can invade native vegetation fragments in proximity to commercial stands, and what factors promote this invasive growth. Thus, three experiments were established in forest fragments located in three different regions of Brazil. Each experiment was composed of 40 plots (1 m(2) each one), 20 plots located at the border between the forest fragment and eucalypts plantation, and 20 plots in the interior of the forest fragments. In each experimental site, the plots were paired by two soil exposure conditions, 10 plots in natural conditions and 10 plots with soil exposure (no plant and no litter). During the rainy season, 2 g of eucalypts seeds were sown in each plot, including Eucalyptus grandis or a hybrid of E. urophylla x E. grandis, the most common commercial eucalypt species planted in the three region. At 15, 30, 45, 90, 180, 270 and 360 days after sowing, we assessed the number of seedlings of eucalypts and the number of seedlings of native species resulting from natural regeneration. Fifteen days after sowing, the greatest number of eucalypts seedlings (37 m(-2)) was observed in the plots with lower luminosity and exposed soil. Also, for native species, it was observed that exposed soil improved natural germination reaching the highest number of 163 seedlings per square meter. Site and soil exposure were the factors that have the greatest influence on seed germination of both eucalypt and native species. However, 270 days after sowing, eucalypt seedlings were not observed at any of the three experimental sites. The result shows the inability of eucalypts to adapt to condition outside of their natural range. However, native species demonstrated their strong capacity for natural regeneration in forest fragments under the same conditions where eucalypts were seeded. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An estimate of biometric parameters in eucalyptus clone plantations in Southern Bahia: an application of the airborne laser scanning (ALS) technology

The application of airborne laser scanning (ALS) technologies in forest inventories has shown great potential to improve the efficiency of forest planning activities. Precise estimates, fast assessment and relatively low complexity can explain the good results in terms of efficiency. The evolution of GPS and inertial measurement technologies, as well as the observed lower assessment costs when these technologies are applied to large scale studies, can explain the increasing dissemination of ALS technologies. The observed good quality of results can be expressed by estimates of volumes and basal area with estimated error below the level of 8.4%, depending on the size of sampled area, the quantity of laser pulses per square meter and the number of control plots. This paper analyzes the potential of an ALS assessment to produce certain forest inventory statistics in plantations of cloned Eucalyptus spp with precision equal of superior to conventional methods. The statistics of interest in this case were: volume, basal area, mean height and dominant trees mean height. The ALS flight for data assessment covered two strips of approximately 2 by 20 Km, in which clouds of points were sampled in circular plots with a radius of 13 m. Plots were sampled in different parts of the strips to cover different stand ages. The clouds of points generated by the ALS assessment: overall height mean, standard error, five percentiles (height under which we can find 10%, 30%, 50%,70% and 90% of the ALS points above ground level in the cloud), and density of points above ground level in each percentile were calculated. The ALS statistics were used in regression models to estimate mean diameter, mean height, mean height of dominant trees, basal area and volume. Conventional forest inventory sample plots provided real data. For volume, an exploratory assessment involving different combinations of ALS statistics allowed for the definition of the most promising relationships and fitting tests based on well known forest biometric models. The models based on ALS statistics that produced the best results involved: the 30% percentile to estimate mean diameter (R(2)=0,88 and MQE%=0,0004); the 10% and 90% percentiles to estimate mean height (R(2)=0,94 and MQE%=0,0003); the 90% percentile to estimate dominant height (R(2)=0,96 and MQE%=0,0003); the 10% percentile and mean height of ALS points to estimate basal area (R(2)=0,92 and MQE%=0,0016); and, to estimate volume, age and the 30% and 90% percentiles (R(2)=0,95 MQE%=0,002). Among the tested forest biometric models, the best fits were provided by the modified Schumacher using age and the 90% percentile, modified Clutter using age, mean height of ALS points and the 70% percentile, and modified Buckman using age, mean height of ALS points and the 10% percentile.

Can intensive management accelerate the restoration of Brazil`s Atlantic forests?

Only 7% of the once extensive forest along the eastern coast of Brazil remains, and much of that is degraded and threatened by agricultural expansion and urbanization. We wondered if methods similar to those developed to establish fast-growing Eucalyptus plantations might also work to enhance survival and growth of rainforest species on degraded pastures composed of highly competitive C(4) grasses. An 8-factor experiment was laid out to contrast the value of different intensities of cultivation, application of fertilizer and weed control on the growth and survival of a mixture of 20 rainforest species planted at two densities: 3 m x 1 m, and 3 m x 2 m. Intensive management increased seedling survival from 90% to 98%, stemwood production and leaf area index (LAI) by similar to 4-fold, and stemwood production per unit of light absorbed by 30%. Annual growth in stem biomass was closely related to LAI alone (r(2) = 0.93, p < 0.0001), and the regression improved further in combination with canopy nitrogen content (r(2) =0.99, p < 0.0001). Intensive management resulted in a nearly closed forest canopy in less than 4 years, and offers a practical means to establish functional forests on abandoned agricultural land. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Private valuation of carbon sequestration in forest plantations

Approval of the Clean Development Mechanism, provided for in the Kyoto Protocol, enables countries with afforested land to trade in carbon emissions reduction certificates related to carbon dioxide equivalent quantities (CO(2-e)) stored within a certain forest area. Potential CO(2-e) above base line sequestration was determined for two forest sites on commercial eucalyptus plantations in northern Brazil (Bahia). Compensation values for silvicultural regimes involving rotation lengths greater than economically optimal were computed using the Faustmann formula. Mean values obtained were US$8.16 (MgCO(2-e))(-1) and US $7.19 (MgCO(2-e))(-1) for average and high site indexes, respectively. Results show that carbon supply is more cost-efficient in highly productive sites. Annuities of US$18.8 Mg C(-1) and US$35.1 Mg C(-1) and yearly payments of US$4.4 m(-3) and US$8.2 m(-3) due for each marginal cubic meter produced were computed for high and average sites, respectively. The estimated value of the tonne of carbon defines minimum values to be paid to forest owners, in order to induce a change in silvicultural management regimes. A reduction of carbon supply could be expected as a result of an increase in wood prices, although it would not respond in a regular manner. For both sites, price elasticity of supply was found to be inelastic and increased as rotation length moved further away from economically optimal: 0.24 and 0.27 for age 11 years in average- and high-productivity sites, respectively. This would be due to biomass production potential as a limiting factor; beyond a certain threshold value. an increase in price does not sustain a proportional change in carbon storage supply. The environmental service valuation model proposed might be adequate for assessing potential supply in plantation forestry, from a private landowner perspective, with an economic opportunity cost. The model is not applicable to low commercial value forest plantations. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Technical and economical evaluation of a harvester, working under different spacing and planting arrangement conditions in eucalypts plantations

Plantation spacing selection has the primary objective of assigning each tree enough space for maximum growth and best quality to be attained with a minimum cost. From the harvest standpoint, an increase in stand density directly implies a decrease of individual tree volume, reducing also harvester productive capacity. The objective of this research is to assess the effects of several initial spacings and arrangements in eucalyptus plantations on production capacity, operational capacity and costs of forest harvester. Real operational data were collected from two eucalypt plantations at different initial spacing of 6.0, 7.5, 9.0, 12 and 18 m(2) per tree. Simulation data were obtained from a forest harvester simulator. Using spacing (E), mean tree volume (MV), diameter at breast height (DBH) and height (H) values, a stepwise regression test procedure was run, and correlations computed in order to measure their participation in operational capacity. Operational costs were computed with an accounting method proposed by FAO. Mean tree volume (MV) explained 88% of forest harvester operational capacity. Spacing (E) affected 8.5% of harvester operational capacity; wider spacings were related to higher individual tree volumes. Harvesting operation costs were lower in wider spaced treatments.

Forest Policy Reform in Brazil

Rapid deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon, caused by economic, social, and policy factors, has focused global and national attention on protecting this valuable forest resource. In response, Brazil reformed its federal forest laws in 2006, creating new regulatory, development, and incentive policy instruments and institutions. Federal forestry responsibilities are maintained within the ministry of the environment; its regulatory agency responsibilities are divided among three different branches of the agency; many powers are delegated to states and municipalities; and a new private concession system is being developed. These reforms offer promise to improve forest protection and management in Brazil but must overcome significant institutional and social resistance for success.

Forest certification in Amazonia: standards matter

Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) certification promises international consumers that `green-label` timber has been logged sustainably. However, recent research indicates that this is not true for ipe (Tabebuia spp.), currently flooding the US residential decking market, much of it logged in Brazil. Uneven or non-application of minimum technical standards for certification could undermine added value and eventually the certification process itself. We examine public summary reports by third-party certifiers describing the evaluation process for certified companies in the Brazilian Amazon to determine the extent to which standards are uniformly applied and the degree to which third-party certifier requirements for compliance are consistent among properties. Current best-practice harvest systems, combined with Brazilian legal norms for harvest levels, guarantee that no certified company or community complies with FSC criteria and indicators specifying species-level management. No guidelines indicate which criteria and indicators must be enforced, or to what degree, for certification to be conferred by third-party assessors; nor do objective guidelines exist for evaluating compliance for criteria and indicators for which adequate scientific information is not yet available to identify acceptable levels. Meanwhile, certified companies are expected to monitor the long-term impacts of logging on biodiversity in addition to conducting best-practice forest management. This burden should reside elsewhere. We recommend a clarification of `sustained timber yield` that reflects current state of knowledge and practice in Amazonia. Quantifiable verifiers for best-practice forest management must be developed and consistently employed. These will need to be flexible to reflect the diversity in forest structure and dynamics that prevails across this vast region. We offer suggestions for how to achieve these goals.

Variation of wood density and relationship with the tree-ring width of mahogany trees, Swietenia macrophylla, from Amazonian tropical forest of Peru

Mahogany trees, Swietenia macrophylla, occur in open rainforest, semi deciduous and deciduous and dense rainforest of Peruvian Amazonian tropical forest. They occur, preferentially, in areas with a defined dry season, with typical phenology and seasonal variation activity, forming distinct tree-rings. The present work had as aim to determine the wood density radial variation of 14 mahogany trees, of two populations of the Peruvian Amazonian tropical forest, through the X-ray densitometry and to evaluate their application as methodology, compared to the classic method of measurement table, for the determination of the treering width. The radial wood apparent density of the trees profiles rendered it possible to delimit the areas of juvenile-adult wood and of the heartwood-sapwood, relative to the anatomical structure and chemical composition differences, due to the extractives and the vessels obstruction by tyloses. The mean, minimum and maximum wood apparent density of the mahogany trees for the Populations A and B were of 0.70; 0.29; 1.01 g.cm(-3) and 0.81; 0.29; 1.19 g.cm(-3), respectively. The analysis of the variance and mean test indicate differences of mean wood density among the mahogany trees of each population, probably due to the age of the trees. There was no correlation between mean wood density of mahogany trees among the two populations, as well as, between the tree-ring width and the respective mean density. The X-ray densitometry technique is an important tool in the evaluation of the radial variation of wood apparent density and the delimitation of tree-ring boundaries, with correlations of 0.94 and 0.93 in relation to measurement table, for each sampled population.

New species of Anastrepha Schiner (Diptera, Tephritidae) from remnant area of the Atlantic Rain Forest and surroundings in the state of Espirito Santo, Brazil

Four new species of Anastrepha Schiner were collected in McPhail-type traps hung in trees in a natural reserve and in commercial papaya orchards in Linhares, Espirito Santo state, Brazil. They are described and named herein as follows: Anastrepha atlantica n. sp., Anastrepha glochin n. sp., Anastrepha linharensis n. sp. and Anastrepha martinsi n. sp. Only the latter was collected in traps hung in papaya orchards. The classification of these species in species groups of Anastrepha is also discussed.