Forward-looking versus recursive-dynamic modeling in climate policy analysis: A comparison

This paper develops a multi-regional general equilibrium model for climate policy analysis based on the latest version of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. We develop two versions so that we can solve the model either as a fully inter-temporal optimization problem (forward-looking, perfect foresight) or recursively. The standard EPPA model on which these models are based is solved recursively, and it is necessary to simplify some aspects of it to make inter-temporal solution possible. The forward-looking capability allows one to better address economic and policy issues such as borrowing and banking of GHG allowances, efficiency implications of environmental tax recycling, endogenous depletion of fossil resources, international capital flows, and optimal emissions abatement paths among others. To evaluate the solution approaches, we benchmark each version to the same macroeconomic path, and then compare the behavior of the two versions under a climate policy that restricts greenhouse gas emissions. We find that the energy sector and CO(2) price behavior are similar in both versions (in the recursive version of the model we force the inter-temporal theoretical efficiency result that abatement through time should be allocated such that the CO(2) price rises at the interest rate.) The main difference that arises is that the macroeconomic costs are substantially lower in the forward-looking version of the model, since it allows consumption shifting as an additional avenue of adjustment to the policy. On the other hand, the simplifications required for solving the model as an optimization problem, such as dropping the full vintaging of the capital stock and fewer explicit technological options, likely have effects on the results. Moreover, inter-temporal optimization with perfect foresight poorly represents the real economy where agents face high levels of uncertainty that likely lead to higher costs than if they knew the future with certainty. We conclude that while the forward-looking model has value for some problems, the recursive model produces similar behavior in the energy sector and provides greater flexibility in the details of the system that can be represented. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Thermal Characteristics of Polybia scutellaris Nests (Hymenoptera: Vespidae) Using Computational Fluid Dynamics: A Possible Adaptation to Tropical Climates

Polybia scutellaris constructs huge nests characterized by numerous spinal projections on the surface. We investigated the thermal characteristics of P scutellaris nests in order to determine whether their nest temperature is homeothermically maintained and whether the spines play a role in the thermoregulation of the nests. In order to examine these hypotheses, we measured the nest temperature in a active nest and in an abandoned nest. The temperature in the active nest was almost stable at 27 degrees C, whereas that of the abandoned nest varied with changes in the ambient temperature, suggesting that nest temperature was maintained by the thermogenesis of colony individuals. In order to predict the thermal properties of the spines, a numerical simulation was employed. To construct a 3D-model of a P scutellaris nest, the nest architecture was simplified into an outer envelope and the surface spines, for both of which the initial temperature was set at 27 degrees C. The physical properties of the simulated nest were regarded to be those of wood since the nest of this species is constructed from plant materials. When the model was exposed to cool air (12 degrees C), the temperature was lower in the models with more spines. On the other hand, when the nest was heated (42 degrees C), the temperature increase was smaller in models with more spines. It is suggested that the spines act as a heat radiator, not as an insulator, against the changes in ambient temperature.

Generation of Naphthoquinone Radical Anions by Electrospray Ionization: Solution, Gas-Phase, and Computational Chemistry Studies

Radical anions are present in several chemical processes, and understanding the reactivity of these species may be described by their thermodynamic properties. Over the last years, the formation of radical ions in the gas phase has been an important issue concerning electrospray ionization mass spectrometry studies. In this work, we report on the generation of radical anions of quinonoid compounds (Q) by electrospray ionization mass spectrometry. The balance between radical anion formation and the deprotonated molecule is also analyzed by influence of the experimental parameters (gas-phase acidity, electron affinity, and reduction potential) and solvent system employed. The gas-phase parameters for formation of radical species and deprotonated species were achieved on the basis of computational thermochemistry. The solution effects on the formation of radical anion (Q(center dot-)) and dianion (Q(2-)) were evaluated on the basis of cyclic voltammetry analysis and the reduction potentials compared with calculated electron affinities. The occurrence of unexpected ions [Q + 15](-) was described as being a reaction between the solvent system and the radical anion, Q(center dot-).The gas-phase chemistry of the electrosprayed radical anions was obtained by collisional-induced dissociation and compared to the relative energy calculations. These results are important for understanding the formation and reactivity of radical anions and to establish their correlation with the reducing properties by electrospray ionization analyses.

A Computational Study of Tetrafluoro-[2.2]Cyclophanes

A computational study of the isomers of tetrafluorinated [2.2]cyclophanes persubstituted in one ring, namely F-4-[2.2]paracyclophane (4), F-4-anti-[2.2]metacyclophane (5a), F-4-syn-[2.2]metacyclophane (5b), and F-4-[2.2]metaparacyclophane (6a and 6b), was carried out. The effects of fluorination on the geometries, relative energies, local and global aromaticity, and strain energies of the bridges and rings were investigated. An analysis of the electron density by B3PW91/6-31+G(d,p), B3LYP/6-31+G(d,p), and MP2/6-31+G(d,p) was carried out using the natural bond orbitals (NBO), natural steric analysis (NSA), and atoms in molecules (AIM) methods. The analysis of frontier molecular orbitals (MOs) was also employed. The results indicated that the molecular structure of [2.2]paracyclophane is the most affected by the fluorination. Isodesmic reactions showed that the fluorinated rings are more strained than the nonfluorinated ones. The NICS, HOMA, and PDI criteria evidenced that the fluorination affects the aromaticity of both the fluorinated and the nonfluorinated rings. The NBO and NSA analyses gave an indication that the fluorination increases not only the number of through-space interactions but also their magnitude. The AIM analysis suggested that the through-space interactions are restricted to the F-4-[2.2]metacyclophanes. In addition, the atomic properties, computed over the atomic basins, shave evidence that not only the substitution, but also the position of the bridges could affect the atomic charges. the first atomic moments, and the atomic volumes.

Modeling volatile organic compounds (voc`s) adsorption onto cup-stacked carbon nanotubes (cscnt) using the linear driving force model

Modeling volatile organic compounds (voc`s) adsorption onto cup-stacked carbon nanotubes (cscnt) using the linear driving force model. Volatile organic compounds (VOC`s) are an important category of air pollutants and adsorption has been employed in the treatment (or simply concentration) of these compounds. The current study used an ordinary analytical methodology to evaluate the properties of a cup-stacked nanotube (CSCNT), a stacking morphology of truncated conical graphene, with large amounts of open edges on the outer surface and empty central channels. This work used a Carbotrap bearing a cup-stacked structure (composite); for comparison, Carbotrap was used as reference (without the nanotube). The retention and saturation capacities of both adsorbents to each concentration used (1, 5, 20 and 35 ppm of toluene and phenol) were evaluated. The composite performance was greater than Carbotrap; the saturation capacities for the composite was 67% higher than Carbotrap (average values). The Langmuir isotherm model was used to fit equilibrium data for both adsorbents, and a linear driving force model (LDF) was used to quantify intraparticle adsorption kinetics. LDF was suitable to describe the curves.

Local delivery of EGF-liposome mediated bone modeling in orthodontic tooth movement by increasing RANKL expression

Aims: It has long been demonstrated that epidermal growth factor (EGF) has catabolic effects oil bone. Thus. we examined the role of EGF in regulating mechanically induced bone modeling in a rat model of orthodontic tooth movement. Main methods: The maxillary first molars of rats were moved mesially using an orthodontic appliance attached to the maxillary incisor teeth. Rats were randomly divided into 4 groups: (G1) administration of PBS (Phosphate buffer saline Solution (n = 24); (G2) administration of empty liposomes (it = 24): (Q) administration 20 rig of EGF Solution (n = 24): and (G4) 20 ng of EGF-liposomes Solution (it = 24). Each Solution was injected in the mucosa of the left first molar adjacent to the appliance. At days 5, 10, 14 and 2 1 after drug administration. 6 animals of each group were sacrificed. Histomorphometric analysis was used to quantify osteoclasts (Tartrate-resistant acid phosphatase (TRAP) + cells) and tooth movement. Using immunohistochemistry assay we evaluated the RANKL (receptor activator of nuclear factor kappa B ligand) and epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) expression. Key findings: The EGF-liposome administration showed an increased tooth movement and osteoclast numbers compared to controls (p<0.05). This was correlated with intense RANKL expression. Both osteoblasts and osteoclasts expressed EGFR. Significance: Local delivery of EGF-liposome stimulates, osteoclastogenesis and tooth movement. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of computational methods for the reconstruction of HLA haplotypes

Human leukocyte antigen (HLA) haplotypes are frequently evaluated for population history inferences and association studies. However, the available typing techniques for the main HLA loci usually do not allow the determination of the allele phase and the constitution of a haplotype, which may be obtained by a very time-consuming and expensive family-based segregation study. Without the family-based study, computational inference by probabilistic models is necessary to obtain haplotypes. Several authors have used the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to determine HLA haplotypes, but high levels of erroneous inferences are expected because of the genetic distance among the main HLA loci and the presence of several recombination hotspots. In order to evaluate the efficiency of computational inference methods, 763 unrelated individuals stratified into three different datasets had their haplotypes manually defined in a family-based study of HLA-A, -B, -DRB1 and -DQB1 segregation, and these haplotypes were compared with the data obtained by the following three methods: the Expectation-Maximization (EM) and Excoffier-Laval-Balding (ELB) algorithms using the arlequin 3.11 software, and the PHASE method. When comparing the methods, we observed that all algorithms showed a poor performance for haplotype reconstruction with distant loci, estimating incorrect haplotypes for 38%-57% of the samples considering all algorithms and datasets. We suggest that computational haplotype inferences involving low-resolution HLA-A, HLA-B, HLA-DRB1 and HLA-DQB1 haplotypes should be considered with caution.

Intermittent hypoxia-induced sensitization of central chemoreceptors contributes to sympathetic nerve activity during late expiration in rats

Molkov YI, Zoccal DB, Moraes DJ, Paton JF, Machado BH, Rybak IA. Intermittent hypoxia-induced sensitization of central chemoreceptors contributes to sympathetic nerve activity during late expiration in rats. J Neurophysiol 105: 3080-3091, 2011. First published April 6, 2011; doi:10.1152/jn.00070.2011.-Hypertension elicited by chronic intermittent hypoxia (CIH) is associated with elevated activity of the thoracic sympathetic nerve (tSN) that exhibits an enhanced respiratory modulation reflecting a strengthened interaction between respiratory and sympathetic networks within the brain stem. Expiration is a passive process except for special metabolic conditions such as hypercapnia, when it becomes active through phasic excitation of abdominal motor nerves (AbN) in late expiration. An increase in CO(2) evokes late-expiratory (late-E) discharges phase-locked to phrenic bursts with the frequency increasing quantally as hypercapnia increases. In rats exposed to CIH, the late-E discharges synchronized in AbN and tSN emerge in normocapnia. To elucidate the possible neural mechanisms underlying these phenomena, we extended our computational model of the brain stem respiratory network by incorporating a population of presympathetic neurons in the rostral ventrolateral medulla that received inputs from the pons, medullary respiratory compartments, and retrotrapezoid nucleus/parafacial respiratory group (RTN/pFRG). Our simulations proposed that CIH conditioning increases the CO(2) sensitivity of RTN/pFRG neurons, causing a reduction in both the CO(2) threshold for emerging the late-E activity in AbN and tSN and the hypocapnic threshold for apnea. Using the in situ rat preparation, we have confirmed that CIH-conditioned rats under normal conditions exhibit synchronized late-E discharges in AbN and tSN similar to those observed in control rats during hypercapnia. Moreover, the hypocapnic threshold for apnea was significantly lowered in CIH-conditioned rats relative to that in control rats. We conclude that CIH may sensitize central chemoreception and that this significantly contributes to the neural impetus for generation of sympathetic activity and hypertension.

A Dynamical Modeling to Study the Adaptive Immune System and the Influence of Antibodies in the Immune Memory

Immunological systems have been an abundant inspiration to contemporary computer scientists. Problem solving strategies, stemming from known immune system phenomena, have been successfully applied to chall enging problems of modem computing. Simulation systems and mathematical modeling are also beginning use to answer more complex immunological questions as immune memory process and duration of vaccines, where the regulation mechanisms are not still known sufficiently (Lundegaard, Lund, Kesmir, Brunak, Nielsen, 2007). In this article we studied in machina a approach to simulate the process of antigenic mutation and its implications for the process of memory. Our results have suggested that the durability of the immune memory is affected by the process of antigenic mutation.and by populations of soluble antibodies in the blood. The results also strongly suggest that the decrease of the production of antibodies favors the global maintenance of immune memory.

Modeling upper eyelid kinematics during spontaneous and reflex blinks

To test a mathematical model for measuring blinking kinematics. Spontaneous and reflex blinks of 23 healthy subjects were recorded with two different temporal resolutions. A magnetic search coil was used to record 77 blinks sampled at 200 Hz and 2 kHz in 13 subjects. A video system with low temporal resolution (30 Hz) was employed to register 60 blinks of 10 other subjects. The experimental data points were fitted with a model that assumes that the upper eyelid movement can be divided into two parts: an impulsive accelerated motion followed by a damped harmonic oscillation. All spontaneous and reflex blinks, including those recorded with low resolution, were well fitted by the model with a median coefficient of determination of 0.990. No significant difference was observed when the parameters of the blinks were estimated with the under-damped or critically damped solutions of the harmonic oscillator. On the other hand, the over-damped solution was not applicable to fit any movement. There was good agreement between the model and numerical estimation of the amplitude but not of maximum velocity. Spontaneous and reflex blinks can be mathematically described as consisting of two different phases. The down-phase is mainly an accelerated movement followed by a short time that represents the initial part of the damped harmonic oscillation. The latter is entirely responsible for the up-phase of the movement. Depending on the instantaneous characteristics of each movement, the under-damped or critically damped oscillation is better suited to describe the second phase of the blink. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Finite Element Modeling for Development and Optimization of a Bone Plate for Mandibular Fracture in Dogs

This study aimed to develop a plate to treat fractures of the mandibular body in dogs and to validate the project using finite elements and biomechanical essays. Mandible prototypes were produced with 10 oblique ventrorostral fractures (favorable) and 10 oblique ventrocaudal fractures (unfavorable). Three groups were established for each fracture type. Osteosynthesis with a pure titanium plate of double-arch geometry and blocked monocortical screws offree angulanon were used. The mechanical resistance of the prototype with unfavorable fracture was lower than that of the fcworable fracture. In both fractures, the deflection increased and the relative stiffness decreased proportionally to the diminishing screw number The finite element analysis validated this plate study, since the maximum tension concentration observed on the plate was lower than the resistance limit tension admitted by the titanium. In conclusion, the double-arch geometry plate fixed with blocked monocortical screws has sufficient resistance to stabilize oblique,fractures, without compromising mandibular dental or neurovascular structures. J Vet Dent 24 (7); 212 - 221, 2010

Modeling the Competition Between Viruses in a Complex Plant-Pathogen System

In this article, we propose a mathematical model that describes the competition between two plant virus strains (MAV and PAV) for both the host plant (oat) and their aphid vectors. We found that although PAV is transmitted by two aphids and MAV by only one, this fact, by itself, does not explain the complete replacement of MAV by PAV in New York State during the period from 1961 through 1976; an interpretation that is in agreement with the theories of A. G. Power. Also, although MAV wins the competition within aphids, we assumed that, in 1961, PAV mutated into a new variant such that this new variant was able to overcome MAV within the plants during a latent period. As shown below, this is sufficient to explain the swap of strains; that is, the dominant MAV was replaced by PAV, also in agreement with Power`s expectations.