Forward-looking versus recursive-dynamic modeling in climate policy analysis: A comparison

This paper develops a multi-regional general equilibrium model for climate policy analysis based on the latest version of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. We develop two versions so that we can solve the model either as a fully inter-temporal optimization problem (forward-looking, perfect foresight) or recursively. The standard EPPA model on which these models are based is solved recursively, and it is necessary to simplify some aspects of it to make inter-temporal solution possible. The forward-looking capability allows one to better address economic and policy issues such as borrowing and banking of GHG allowances, efficiency implications of environmental tax recycling, endogenous depletion of fossil resources, international capital flows, and optimal emissions abatement paths among others. To evaluate the solution approaches, we benchmark each version to the same macroeconomic path, and then compare the behavior of the two versions under a climate policy that restricts greenhouse gas emissions. We find that the energy sector and CO(2) price behavior are similar in both versions (in the recursive version of the model we force the inter-temporal theoretical efficiency result that abatement through time should be allocated such that the CO(2) price rises at the interest rate.) The main difference that arises is that the macroeconomic costs are substantially lower in the forward-looking version of the model, since it allows consumption shifting as an additional avenue of adjustment to the policy. On the other hand, the simplifications required for solving the model as an optimization problem, such as dropping the full vintaging of the capital stock and fewer explicit technological options, likely have effects on the results. Moreover, inter-temporal optimization with perfect foresight poorly represents the real economy where agents face high levels of uncertainty that likely lead to higher costs than if they knew the future with certainty. We conclude that while the forward-looking model has value for some problems, the recursive model produces similar behavior in the energy sector and provides greater flexibility in the details of the system that can be represented. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Low Satellite DNA Variability in Natural Populations of Drosophila antonietae Involved in Different Evolutionary Events

Drosophila antonietae is a cactophilic species that is found in the mesophilic forest of the Parana`-Paraguay river basin and in the dunes of the South Atlantic coast of Brazil. Although the genetic structure of the Parana`-Paraguay river basin populations has already been established, the relationship between these populations and those on the Atlantic coast is controversial. In this study, we compared 33 repetitive units of pBuM-2 satellite DNA isolated from individuals from 8 populations of D. antonietae in these geographic regions, including some populations found within a contact zone with the closely related D. serido. The pBuM-2 sequences showed low interpopulational variability. This result was interpreted as a consequence of both gene flow among the populations and unequal crossing over promoting homogenization of the tandem arrays. The results presented here, together with those of previous studies, highlight the use of pBuM-2 for solving taxonomic conflicts within the D. buzzatii species cluster.

Modeling volatile organic compounds (voc`s) adsorption onto cup-stacked carbon nanotubes (cscnt) using the linear driving force model

Modeling volatile organic compounds (voc`s) adsorption onto cup-stacked carbon nanotubes (cscnt) using the linear driving force model. Volatile organic compounds (VOC`s) are an important category of air pollutants and adsorption has been employed in the treatment (or simply concentration) of these compounds. The current study used an ordinary analytical methodology to evaluate the properties of a cup-stacked nanotube (CSCNT), a stacking morphology of truncated conical graphene, with large amounts of open edges on the outer surface and empty central channels. This work used a Carbotrap bearing a cup-stacked structure (composite); for comparison, Carbotrap was used as reference (without the nanotube). The retention and saturation capacities of both adsorbents to each concentration used (1, 5, 20 and 35 ppm of toluene and phenol) were evaluated. The composite performance was greater than Carbotrap; the saturation capacities for the composite was 67% higher than Carbotrap (average values). The Langmuir isotherm model was used to fit equilibrium data for both adsorbents, and a linear driving force model (LDF) was used to quantify intraparticle adsorption kinetics. LDF was suitable to describe the curves.

Local delivery of EGF-liposome mediated bone modeling in orthodontic tooth movement by increasing RANKL expression

Aims: It has long been demonstrated that epidermal growth factor (EGF) has catabolic effects oil bone. Thus. we examined the role of EGF in regulating mechanically induced bone modeling in a rat model of orthodontic tooth movement. Main methods: The maxillary first molars of rats were moved mesially using an orthodontic appliance attached to the maxillary incisor teeth. Rats were randomly divided into 4 groups: (G1) administration of PBS (Phosphate buffer saline Solution (n = 24); (G2) administration of empty liposomes (it = 24): (Q) administration 20 rig of EGF Solution (n = 24): and (G4) 20 ng of EGF-liposomes Solution (it = 24). Each Solution was injected in the mucosa of the left first molar adjacent to the appliance. At days 5, 10, 14 and 2 1 after drug administration. 6 animals of each group were sacrificed. Histomorphometric analysis was used to quantify osteoclasts (Tartrate-resistant acid phosphatase (TRAP) + cells) and tooth movement. Using immunohistochemistry assay we evaluated the RANKL (receptor activator of nuclear factor kappa B ligand) and epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) expression. Key findings: The EGF-liposome administration showed an increased tooth movement and osteoclast numbers compared to controls (p<0.05). This was correlated with intense RANKL expression. Both osteoblasts and osteoclasts expressed EGFR. Significance: Local delivery of EGF-liposome stimulates, osteoclastogenesis and tooth movement. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mitochondrial DNA Variability Among Eight Tikuna Villages: Evidence for an Intratribal Genetic Heterogeneity Pattern

To study the genetic structure of the Tikuna tribe, four major Native American mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) founder haplogroups were analyzed in 187 Amerindians from eight Tikuna villages located in the Brazilian Amazon. The central position of these villages in the continent makes them relevant for attempts to reconstruct population movements in South America. In this geographic region, there is particular concern regarding the genetic structure of the Tikuna tribe, formerly designated ""enigmatic"" due to its remarkable degree of intratribal homogeneity and the scarcity of private protein variants. In spite of its large population size and geographic distribution, the Tikuna tribe presents marked genetic and linguistic isolation. All individuals presented indigenous mtDNA haplogroups. An intratribal genetic heterogeneity pattern characterized by two highly homogeneous Tikuna groups that differ considerably from each other was observed. Such a finding was unexpected, since the Tikuna tribe is characterized by a social system that favors intratribal exogamy and patrilocality that would lead to a higher female migration rate and homogenization of the mtDNA gene pool. Demographic explosions and religious events, which significantly changed the sizes and compositions of many Tikuna villages, may be reflected in the genetic results presented here. Am J Phys Anthropol 140:526-531,2009. (C) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc

Age and Method-dependent Variability of Predicted Oxygen Consumption in Congenital Heart Disease

Background and Purpose. There has been a lot of debate about the use of predicted oxygen consumption to calculate pulmonary vascular resistance using the Fick principle. We therefore comparatively analyzed predicted oxygen consumption in infants and children in specific age groups, using different methods (formulas), as an attempt to better understand the usefulness and limitations of predictions. Methods and Results. Four models (LaFarge & Miettinen, Bergstra et al., Lindahl, and Lundell et al.) were used to predict oxygen consumption in 200 acyanotic patients with congenital cardiac defects aged 0-2.0, > 2.0-4.0, > 4.0-6.0, and > 6.0-8.75 years (median 2.04 years). Significant differences were observed between the age groups (P < .001) and between the methods (P < .001), not related to diagnoses. Differences between methods were more impressive in the first age group (P < .01). In patients aged 0-2.0 years, the lowest values of oxygen consumption (corresponding to the highest estimates of pulmonary vascular resistance) were obtained with the method of Lindahl; above this age, any method except that of Lundell et al. Conclusions. Although measuring oxygen consumption is always preferable, a rational use of predictions, using different methods, may be of help in situations where measurements are definitely not possible.

Changes in plasma free fatty acid levels in septic patients are associated with cardiac damage and reduction in heart rate variability

Free fatty acids (FFAs) have been shown to produce alteration of heart rate variability (HRV) in healthy and diabetic individuals. Changes in HRV have been described in septic patients and in those with hyperglycemia and elevated plasma FFA levels. We studied if sepsis-induced heart damage and HRV alteration are associated with plasma FFA levels in patients. Thirty-one patients with sepsis were included. The patients were divided into two groups: survivors(n = 12) and nonsurvivors (n = 19). The following associations were investigated: (a) troponin I elevation and HRV reduction and (b) clinical evolution and HRV index, plasma troponin, and plasma FFA levels. Initial measurements of C-reactive protein and gravity Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation scores were similar in both groups. Overall, an increase in plasma troponin level was related to increased mortality risk. From the first day of study, the nonsurvivor group presented a reduced left ventricular stroke work systolic index and a reduced low frequency (LF) that is one of HRV indexes. The correlation coefficient for LF values and troponin was r(2) = 0.75 (P < 0.05). All patients presented elevated plasma FFA levels on the first day of the study (5.11 +/- 0.53 mg/mL), and this elevation was even greater in the nonsurvivor group compared with the survivors (6.88 +/- 0.13 vs. 3.85 +/- 0.48 mg/mL, respectively; P < 0.05). Cardiac damage was confirmed by measurement of plasma troponin I and histological analysis. Heart dysfunction was determined by left ventricular stroke work systolic index and HRV index in nonsurvivor patients. A relationship was found between plasma FFA levels, LFnu index, troponin levels, and histological changes. Plasma FFA levels emerged as possible cause of heart damage in sepsis.

A NEUROECONOMIC MODELING OF ATTENTION-DEFICIT/HYPERACTIVITY DISORDER (ADHD)

In this paper we present a new neuroeconomics model for decision-making applied to the Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD). The model is based on the hypothesis that decision-making is dependent on the evaluation of expected rewards and risks assessed simultaneously in two decision spaces: the personal (PDS) and the interpersonal emotional spaces (IDS). Motivation to act is triggered by necessities identified in PDS or IDS. The adequacy of an action in fulfilling a given necessity is assumed to be dependent on the expected reward and risk evaluated in the decision spaces. Conflict generated by expected reward and risk influences the easiness (cognitive effort) and the future perspective of the decision-making. Finally, the willingness (not) to act is proposed to be a function of the expected reward (or risk), adequacy, easiness and future perspective. The two most frequent clinical forms are ADHD hyperactive (AD/HDhyp) and ADHD inattentive (AD/HDdin). AD/HDhyp behavior is hypothesized to be a consequence of experiencing high rewarding expectancies for short periods of time, low risk evaluation, and short future perspective for decision-making. AD/HDin is hypothesized to be a consequence of experiencing high rewarding expectancies for long periods of time, low risk evaluation, and long future perspective for decision-making.

Brain Structural Variability due to Aging and Gender in Cognitively Healthy Elders: Results from the Sao Paulo Ageing and Health Study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Several morphometric MR imaging studies have investigated age- and sex-related cerebral volume changes in healthy human brains, most often by using samples spanning several decades of life and linear correlation methods. This study aimed to map the normal pattern of regional age-related volumetric reductions specifically in the elderly population. MATERIALS AND METHODS: One hundred thirty-two eligible individuals (67-75 years of age) were selected from a community-based sample recruited for the Sao Paulo Ageing and Health (SPAH) study, and a cross-sectional MR imaging investigation was performed concurrently with the second SPAH wave. We used voxel-based morphometry (VBM) to conduct a voxelwise search for significant linear correlations between gray matter (GM) volumes and age. In addition, region-of-interest masks were used to investigate whether the relationship between regional GM (rGM) volumes and age would be best predicted by a nonlinear model. RESULTS: VBM and region-of-interest analyses revealed selective foci of accelerated rGM loss exclusively in men, involving the temporal neocortex, prefrontal cortex, and medial temporal region. The only structure in which GM volumetric changes were best predicted by a nonlinear model was the left parahippocampal gyrus. CONCLUSIONS: The variable patterns of age-related GM loss across separate neocortical and temporolimbic regions highlight the complexity of degenerative processes that affect the healthy human brain across the life span. The detection of age-related Ill GM decrease in men supports the view that atrophy in such regions should be seen as compatible with normal aging.

Karyotype variability in KP1(+) and KP1(-) strains of Trypanosoma rangeli isolated in Brazil and Colombia

In the present study, the molecular karyotypes of 12 KP1(+) and KP1(-) Trypanosoma rangeli strains were determined and 10 different molecular markers were hybridized to the chromosomes of the parasite, including seven obtained from T. rangeli [ubiquitin hydrolase (UH), a predicted serine/threonine protein kinase (STK), hexose transporter, hypothetical protein, three anonymous sequences] and three from Trypanosoma cruzi [ubiquitin-conjugating enzyme E2 (UBE2), ribosomal RNA methyltransferase (rRNAmtr), proteasome non-ATPase regulatory subunit 6 (PSMD6)]. Despite intraspecific variation, analysis of the karyotype profiles permitted the division of the T rangeli strains into two groups coinciding with the KP1(+) and KP1(-) genotypes. Southern blot hybridization showed that, except for the hexose transporter probe, all other probes produced distinct patterns able to differentiate the KP1(+) and KP1(-) genotypes. The UH, STK and An-1A04 probes exclusively hybridized to the chromosomes of KP1(+) strains and can be used as markers of this group. In addition, the UBE2, rRNAmtr and PSMD6 markers, which are present in a conserved region in all trypanosomatid species sequenced so far, co-hybridized to the same T. rangeli chromosomal bands, suggesting the occurrence of gene synteny in these species. The finding of distinct molecular karyotypes in KP1(+) and KP1 (-) strains of T rangeli is noteworthy and might be used as a new approach to the study of genetic variability in this parasite. Together with the Southern blot hybridization results, these findings demonstrate that differences at the kDNA level might be associated with variations in nuclear DNA. (c) 2009 Elsevier BY. All rights reserved.

Influence of third-generation oral contraceptives on the complexity analysis and symbolic dynamics of heart rate variability

Objective To evaluate the influence of oral contraceptives (OCs) containing 20 mu mu g ethinylestradiol (EE) and 150 mu mu g gestodene (GEST) on the autonomic modulation of heart rate (HR) in women. Methods One-hundred and fifty-five women aged 24 +/-+/- 2 years were divided into four groups according to their physical activity and the use or not of an OC: active-OC, active-non-OC (NOC), sedentary-OC, and sedentary-NOC. The heart rate was registered in real time based on the electrocardiogram signal for 15 minutes, in the supine-position. The heart rate variability (HRV) was analysed using Shannon`s entropy (SE), conditional entropy (complexity index [CInd] and normalised CInd [NCI]), and symbolic analysis (0V%, 1V%, 2LV%, and 2ULV%). For statistical analysis the Kruskal-Wallis test with Dunn post hoc and the Wilcoxon test (p < 0.05 was considered significant) were applied. Results Treatment with this COC caused no significant changes in SE, CInd, NCI, or symbolic analysis in either active or sedentary groups. Active groups presented higher values for SE and 2ULV%, and lower values for 0V% when compared to sedentary groups (p < 0.05). Conclusion HRV patterns differed depending on life style; the non-linear method applied was highly reliable for identifying these changes. The use of OCs containing 20 mu mu g EE and 150 mu mu g GEST does not influence HR autonomic modulation.

A Dynamical Modeling to Study the Adaptive Immune System and the Influence of Antibodies in the Immune Memory

Immunological systems have been an abundant inspiration to contemporary computer scientists. Problem solving strategies, stemming from known immune system phenomena, have been successfully applied to chall enging problems of modem computing. Simulation systems and mathematical modeling are also beginning use to answer more complex immunological questions as immune memory process and duration of vaccines, where the regulation mechanisms are not still known sufficiently (Lundegaard, Lund, Kesmir, Brunak, Nielsen, 2007). In this article we studied in machina a approach to simulate the process of antigenic mutation and its implications for the process of memory. Our results have suggested that the durability of the immune memory is affected by the process of antigenic mutation.and by populations of soluble antibodies in the blood. The results also strongly suggest that the decrease of the production of antibodies favors the global maintenance of immune memory.

Modeling upper eyelid kinematics during spontaneous and reflex blinks

To test a mathematical model for measuring blinking kinematics. Spontaneous and reflex blinks of 23 healthy subjects were recorded with two different temporal resolutions. A magnetic search coil was used to record 77 blinks sampled at 200 Hz and 2 kHz in 13 subjects. A video system with low temporal resolution (30 Hz) was employed to register 60 blinks of 10 other subjects. The experimental data points were fitted with a model that assumes that the upper eyelid movement can be divided into two parts: an impulsive accelerated motion followed by a damped harmonic oscillation. All spontaneous and reflex blinks, including those recorded with low resolution, were well fitted by the model with a median coefficient of determination of 0.990. No significant difference was observed when the parameters of the blinks were estimated with the under-damped or critically damped solutions of the harmonic oscillator. On the other hand, the over-damped solution was not applicable to fit any movement. There was good agreement between the model and numerical estimation of the amplitude but not of maximum velocity. Spontaneous and reflex blinks can be mathematically described as consisting of two different phases. The down-phase is mainly an accelerated movement followed by a short time that represents the initial part of the damped harmonic oscillation. The latter is entirely responsible for the up-phase of the movement. Depending on the instantaneous characteristics of each movement, the under-damped or critically damped oscillation is better suited to describe the second phase of the blink. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Heart rate and arterial pressure variability in the experimental renovascular hypertension model in rats

This study was conducted in one kidney, one clip (1K1C) Goldblatt hypertensive rats to evaluate vascular and cardiac autonomic control using different approaches: 1) evaluation of the autonomic modulation of heart rate (HR) and systolic arterial pressure (SAP) by means of autoregressive power spectral analysis 2) assessment of the cardiac baroreflex sensitivity; and 3) double blockade with methylatropine and propranolol. The 1K1C group developed hypertension and tachycardia. The 1K1C group also presented reduction in variance as well as in LF (0.23 +/- 0.1 vs. 1.32 +/- 0.2 ms(2)) and HF (6.6 +/- 0.49 vs. 15.1 +/- 0.61 ms(2)) oscillations of pulse interval. Autoregressive spectral analysis of SAP showed that 1K1C rats had an increase in variance and LF band (13.3 +/- 2.7 vs. 7.4 +/- 1.01 mmHg(2)) in comparison with the sham group. The baroreflex gain was attenuated in the hypertensive 1K1C (- 1.83 +/- 0.05 bpm/mmHg) rats in comparison with normotensive sham (-3.23 +/- 0.06 bpm/MmHg) rats. The autonomic blockade caused an increase in the intrinsic HR and sympathetic predominance on the basal HR of 1K1C rats. Overall, these data indicate that the tachycardia observed in the 1K1C group may be attributed to intrinsic cardiac mechanisms (increased intrinsic heart rate) and to a shift in the sympathovagal balance towards cardiac sympathetic over-activity and vagal suppression associated to depressed baroreflex sensitivity. Finally, the increase in the LF components of SAP also suggests an increase in sympathetic activity to peripheral vessels. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of progressive exercise during phase I cardiac rehabilitation on the heart rate variability of patients with acute myocardial infarction

Purpose. aEuro integral Heart rate variability (HRV) decreases after an acute myocardial infarction (AMI) due to changes in cardiac autonomic balance. The purpose of the present study, therefore, was to evaluate the effects of a progressive exercise protocol used in phase I cardiac rehabilitation on the HRV of patients with post-AMI. Material and methods. aEuro integral Thirty-seven patients who had been admitted to hospital with their first non-complicated AMI were studied. The treated group (TG, n == 21, age == 52 +/-+/- 12 years) performed a 5-day programme of progressive exercise during phase I cardiac rehabilitation, while the control group (CG, n == 16, age == 54 +/-+/- 11 years) performed only respiratory exercises. Instantaneous heart rate (HR) and RR interval were acquired by a HR monitor (Polar (R) A (R) S810i). HRV was analysed by frequency domain methods. Power spectral density was expressed as normalised units (nu) at low (LF) and high (HF) frequencies, and as LF/HF. Results. aEuro integral After 5 days of progressive exercise, the TG showed an increase in HFnu (35.9 +/-+/- 19.5 to 65.19 +/-+/- 25.4) and a decrease in LFnu and LF/HF (58.9 +/-+/- 21.4 to 32.5 +/-+/- 24.1; 3.12 +/-+/- 4.0 to 1.0 +/-+/- 1.5, respectively) in the resting position (p < 0.05). No changes were observed in the CG. Conclusions. aEuro integral A progressive physiotherapeutic exercise programme carried out during phase I cardiac rehabilitation, as supplement to clinical treatment increased vagal and decreased sympathetic cardiac modulation in patients with post-AMI.