Forward-looking versus recursive-dynamic modeling in climate policy analysis: A comparison

This paper develops a multi-regional general equilibrium model for climate policy analysis based on the latest version of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. We develop two versions so that we can solve the model either as a fully inter-temporal optimization problem (forward-looking, perfect foresight) or recursively. The standard EPPA model on which these models are based is solved recursively, and it is necessary to simplify some aspects of it to make inter-temporal solution possible. The forward-looking capability allows one to better address economic and policy issues such as borrowing and banking of GHG allowances, efficiency implications of environmental tax recycling, endogenous depletion of fossil resources, international capital flows, and optimal emissions abatement paths among others. To evaluate the solution approaches, we benchmark each version to the same macroeconomic path, and then compare the behavior of the two versions under a climate policy that restricts greenhouse gas emissions. We find that the energy sector and CO(2) price behavior are similar in both versions (in the recursive version of the model we force the inter-temporal theoretical efficiency result that abatement through time should be allocated such that the CO(2) price rises at the interest rate.) The main difference that arises is that the macroeconomic costs are substantially lower in the forward-looking version of the model, since it allows consumption shifting as an additional avenue of adjustment to the policy. On the other hand, the simplifications required for solving the model as an optimization problem, such as dropping the full vintaging of the capital stock and fewer explicit technological options, likely have effects on the results. Moreover, inter-temporal optimization with perfect foresight poorly represents the real economy where agents face high levels of uncertainty that likely lead to higher costs than if they knew the future with certainty. We conclude that while the forward-looking model has value for some problems, the recursive model produces similar behavior in the energy sector and provides greater flexibility in the details of the system that can be represented. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Existence of solutions for a class of abstract differential equations with nonlocal conditions

We discuss the existence of mild, classical and strict solutions for a class of abstract differential equations with nonlocal conditions. Our technical approach allows the study of partial differential equations with nonlocal conditions involving partial derivatives or nonlinear expressions of the solution. Some concrete applications to partial differential equations are considered. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Aesthetic value: between universality and exclusivity

This study brings a reflection on aesthetic values, trying to consider connections between universality, social exclusion and contemporary violence.

Chronic Recurrent Multifocal Osteomyelitis Primarily Affecting the Spine Treated With Anti-TNF Therapy

Study Design. A case report describing chronic recurrent multifocal osteomyelitis (CRMO) with initial presentation limited to spine, successfully treated by anti-TNF-alpha therapy after failure of conventional treatment methods. Objective. To describe an unusual manifestation and treatment of a rare disease. Summary of Background Data. CRMO is a rare inflammatory bone disease that should be differentiated from bacterial osteomyelitis. Rarely, it can affect the spine and in this case the most important differential diagnosis is infectious spondylodiscitis. The disease has an unpredictable course with exacerbations and spontaneous remissions. Although the majority of cases remit spontaneously (or after the use of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs [NSAIDs]), some progressive and resistant cases have been reported. Methods. We describe a case of CRMO with an unusual clinical presentation emphasizing the importance of this finding as a differential diagnosis of spondylodiscitis and comment on the available treatment alternatives. Results. A 17-year-old man presented with debilitating dorsal spine pain. Magnetic resonance imaging of the spine revealed bone lesions at multiple vertebral levels. After failure of antibiotic treatment, the diagnosis of CRMO was suggested. An initial good response to NSAIDs was followed by a recurrent course and involvement of peripheral joints besides the use of corticosteroids and other drugs. The introduction of infliximab was followed by complete remission of the disease. Conclusion. Our observation highlights the need of awareness for the differential diagnosis in suspected cases of osteomyelitis not responding to antibiotics. Anti-TNF-alpha agents should be considered in CRMO refractory cases.

Coronary CT angiography using 64 detector rows: methods and design of the multi-centre trial CORE-64

Multislice computed tomography (MSCT) for the noninvasive detection of coronary artery stenoses is a promising candidate for widespread clinical application because of its non-invasive nature and high sensitivity and negative predictive value as found in several previous studies using 16 to 64 simultaneous detector rows. A multi-centre study of CT coronary angiography using 16 simultaneous detector rows has shown that 16-slice CT is limited by a high number of nondiagnostic cases and a high false-positive rate. A recent meta-analysis indicated a significant interaction between the size of the study sample and the diagnostic odds ratios suggestive of small study bias, highlighting the importance of evaluating MSCT using 64 simultaneous detector rows in a multi-centre approach with a larger sample size. In this manuscript we detail the objectives and methods of the prospective ""CORE-64"" trial (""Coronary Evaluation Using Multidetector Spiral Computed Tomography Angiography using 64 Detectors""). This multi-centre trial was unique in that it assessed the diagnostic performance of 64-slice CT coronary angiography in nine centres worldwide in comparison to conventional coronary angiography. In conclusion, the multi-centre, multi-institutional and multi-continental trial CORE-64 has great potential to ultimately assess the per-patient diagnostic performance of coronary CT angiography using 64 simultaneous detector rows.

Prognostic Value of Dobutamine Stress Echocardiography With Early Injection of Atropine With Versus Without Chronic Beta-Blocker Therapy in Patients With Known or Suspected Coronary Heart Disease

Although a new protocol of dobutamine stress echocardiography with the early injection of atropine (EA-DSE) has been demonstrated to be useful in reducing adverse effects and increasing the number of effective tests and to have similar accuracy for detecting coronary artery disease (CAD) compared with conventional protocols, no data exist regarding its ability to predict long-term events. The aim of this study was to determine the prognostic value of EA-DSE and the effects of the long-term use of beta blockers on it. A retrospective evaluation of 844 patients who underwent EA-DSE for known or suspected CAD was performed; 309 (37%) were receiving beta blockers. During a median follow-up period of 24 months, 102 events (12%) occurred. On univariate analysis, predictors of events were the ejection fraction (p <0.001), male gender (p <0.001), previous myocardial infarction (p <0.001), angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor therapy (p = 0.021), calcium channel blocker therapy (p = 0.034), and abnormal results on EA-DSE (p <0.001). On multivariate analysis, the independent predictors of events were male gender (relative risk [RR] 1.78, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.13 to 2.81, p = 0.013) and abnormal results on EA-DSE (RR 4.45, 95% CI 2.84 to 7.01, p <0.0001). Normal results on EA-DSE with P blockers were associated with a nonsignificant higher incidence of events than normal results on EA-DSE without beta blockers (RR 1.29, 95% CI 0.58 to 2.87, p = 0.54). Abnormal results on EA-DSE with beta blockers had an RR of 4.97 (95% CI 2.79 to 8.87, p <0.001) compared with normal results, while abnormal results on EA-DSE without beta blockers had an RR of 5.96 (95% CI 3.41 to 10.44, p <0.001) for events, with no difference between groups (p = 0.36). In conclusion, the detection of fixed or inducible wall motion abnormalities during EA-DSE was an independent predictor of long-term events in patients with known or suspected CAD. The prognostic value of EA-DSE was not affected by the long-term use of beta blockers. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. (Am J Cardiol 2008;102:1291-1295)

Value of real time three-dimensional echocardiography in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy: Comparison with two-dimensional echocardiography and magnetic resonance imaging

Real time three-dimensional echocardiography (RT3DE) has been demonstrated to be an accurate technique to quantify left ventricular (LV) volumes and function in different patient populations. We sought to determine the value of RT3DE for evaluating patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM), in comparison with cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Methods: We studied 20 consecutive patients with HCM who underwent two-dimensional echocardiography (2DE), RT3DE, and MRI. Parameters analyzed by echocardiography and MRI included: wall thickness, LV volumes, ejection fraction (LVEF), mass, geometric index, and dyssynchrony index. Statistical analysis was performed by Lin agreement coefficient, Pearson linear correlation and Bland-Altman model. Results: There was excellent agreement between 2DE and RT3DE (Rc = 0.92), 2DE and MRI (Rc = 0.85), and RT3DE and MRI (Rc = 0.90) for linear measurements. Agreement indexes for LV end-diastolic and end-systolic volumes were Rc = 0.91 and Rc = 0.91 between 2DE and RT3DE, Rc = 0.94 and Rc = 0.95 between RT3DE and MRI, and Rc = 0.89 and Rc = 0.88 between 2DE and MRI, respectively. Satisfactory agreement was observed between 2DE and RT3DE (Rc = 0.75), RT3DE and MRI (Rc = 0.83), and 2DE and MRI (Rc = 0.73) for determining LVEF, with a mild underestimation of LVEF by 2DE, and smaller variability between RT3DE and MRI. Regarding LV mass, excellent agreement was observed between RT3DE and MRI (Rc = 0.96), with bias of -6.3 g (limits of concordance = 42.22 to -54.73 g). Conclusion: In patients with HCM, RT3DE demonstrated superior performance than 2DE for the evaluation of myocardial hypertrophy, LV volumes, LVEF, and LV mass.

Viral Load Predicts New World Health Organization Stage 3 and 4 Events in HIV-Infected Children Receiving Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy, Independent of CD4 T Lymphocyte Value

Background. Many resource-limited countries rely on clinical and immunological monitoring without routine virological monitoring for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected children receiving highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). We assessed whether HIV load had independent predictive value in the presence of immunological and clinical data for the occurrence of new World Health Organization (WHO) stage 3 or 4 events (hereafter, WHO events) among HIV-infected children receiving HAART in Latin America. Methods. The NISDI (Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development International Site Development Initiative) Pediatric Protocol is an observational cohort study designed to describe HIV-related outcomes among infected children. Eligibility criteria for this analysis included perinatal infection, age ! 15 years, and continuous HAART for >= 6 months. Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to assess time to new WHO events as a function of immunological status, viral load, hemoglobin level, and potential confounding variables; laboratory tests repeated during the study were treated as time-varying predictors. Results. The mean duration of follow-up was 2.5 years; new WHO events occurred in 92 (15.8%) of 584 children. In proportional hazards modeling, most recent viral load 15000 copies/mL was associated with a nearly doubled risk of developing a WHO event (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.81; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-3.11; P = 033), even after adjustment for immunological status defined on the basis of CD4 T lymphocyte value, hemoglobin level, age, and body mass index. Conclusions. Routine virological monitoring using the WHO virological failure threshold of 5000 copies/mL adds independent predictive value to immunological and clinical assessments for identification of children receiving HAART who are at risk for significant HIV-related illness. To provide optimal care, periodic virological monitoring should be considered for all settings that provide HAART to children.

Superior discriminating value of ACTH-stimulated serum 21-deoxycortisol in identifying heterozygote carriers for 21-hydroxylase deficiency

P>Background Congenital adrenal hyperplasia caused by classic 21-hydroxylase deficiency (21OHD) is an autosomal recessive disorder with a high prevalence of asymptomatic heterozygote carriers (HTZ) in the general population, making case detection desirable by routine methodology. HTZ for classic and nonclassic (NC) forms have basal and ACTH-stimulated values of 17-hydroxyprogesterone (17OHP) that fail to discriminate them from the general population. 21-Deoxycortisol (21DF), an 11-hydroxylated derivative of 17OHP, is an alternative approach to identify 21OHD HTZ. Objective To determine the discriminating value of basal and ACTH-stimulated serum levels of 21DF in comparison with 17OHP in a population of HTZ for 21OHD (n = 60), as well as in NC patients (n = 16) and in genotypically normal control subjects (CS, n = 30), using fourth generation tandem mass spectrometry after HPLC separation (LC-MS/MS). Results Basal 21DF levels were not different between HTZ and CS, but stimulated values were increased in the former and virtually nonresponsive in CS. Only 17 center dot 7% of the ACTH-stimulated 21DF levels overlapped with CS, when compared to 46 center dot 8% for 17OHP. For 100% specificity, the sensitivities achieved for ACTH-stimulated 21DF, 17OHP and the quotient [(21DF + 17OHP)/F] were 82 center dot 3%, 53 center dot 2% and 87%, using cut-offs of 40, 300 ng/dl and 46 (unitless), respectively. Similar to 17OHP, ACTH-stimulated 21DF levels did not overlap between HTZ and NC patients. A positive and highly significant correlation (r = 0 center dot 846; P < 0 center dot 001) was observed between 21DF and 17OHP pairs of values from NC and HTZ. Conclusion This study confirms the superiority of ACTH-stimulated 21DF, when compared to 17OHP, both measured by LC-MS/MS, in identifying carriers for 21OHD. Serum 21DF is a useful tool in genetic counselling to screen carriers among relatives in families with affected subjects, giving support to molecular results.

EXPRESSION OF MEMBRANE TYPE 1 MATRIX METALLOPROTEINASE IN MEDULLARY THYROID CARCINOMA: PROGNOSTIC IMPLICATIONS

Background. Clinical and pathologic examinations cannot always provide a prognosis for patients with medullary thyroid carcinoma. Membrane type 1 matrix metalloproteinase (MT1-MMP) can act directly on carcinogenesis and takes part in 1 of the processes of metalloproteinase 2 activation, an enzyme related to prognostic impairment of patients with such tumor. Methods. Thirty-five patients who were submitted to surgery were followed up for an average of 74 months, Postoperative and final medical conditions were characterized for comparison with MT1-MMP immunostainings, performed in surgical paraffin blocks. A value of p < .05 was considered statistically significant. Results. Proposed index (association of proportion and intensity of immunostaining) and proportion of immunostained cells in primary specimens were correlated with cure or persistence after initial operations (p = .0216 and p = .0098, respectively). Conclusion. MT1-MMP immunostaining in primary tumor specimens is a new and complementary prognostic predictor in patients with medullary thyroid carcinomas. (C) 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Head Neck 32: 58-67, 2010

Prognostic value of left atrial volume in patients who underwent dobutamine stress echocardiography for known or suspected coronary artery disease

Background Left atrial volume indexed (LAVI) has been reported as a predictor of cardiovascular events. We sought to determine the prognostic value of LAVI for predicting the outcome of patients who underwent dobutamine stress echocardiography (DSE) for known or suspected coronary artery disease (CAD). Methods From January 2000 to July 2005, we studied 981 patients who underwent DSE and off-line measurements of LAVI. The value of DSE over clinical and LAVI data was examined using a stepwise log-rank test. Results During a median follow-up of 24 months, 56 (6%) events occurred. By univariate analysis, predictors of events were male sex, diabetes mellitus, previous myocardial infarction, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), left atrial diameter indexed, LAVI, and abnormal DSE. By multivariate analysis, independent predictors were LVEF (relative risk [RR] = 0.98, 95% CI 0.95-1.00), LAVI (RR = 1.04, 95% CI 1.02-1.05), and abnormal DSE (RR = 2.70, 95% CI 1.28-5.69). In an incremental multivariate model, LAVI was additional to clinical data for predicting events (chi(2) 36.8, P < .001). The addition of DSE to clinical and LAVI yielded incremental information (chi(2) 55.3, P < .001). The 3-year event-free survival in patients with normal DSE and LAVI <= 33 mL/m(2) was 96%; with abnormal DSE and LAVI <= 33 mL/m(2), 91%; with normal DSE and LAVI >34 mL/m(2), 83%; and with abnormal DSE and LAVI >34 mL/m(2) 51%. Conclusion Left atrial volume indexed provides independent prognostic information in patients who underwent DSE for known or suspected CAD. Among patients with normal DSE, those with larger LAVI had worse outcome, and among patients with abnormal DSE, LAVI was still predictive. (Am Heart J 2008; 156:1110-6.)

Predictive value for malignancy in the finding of microcalcifications on ultrasonography of thyroid nodules

Background. The am of this study was to determine the predictive value for malignancy of microcalcifications determined by ultrasonography in thyroid nodules. Methods. One hundred seventy-seven nodules were prospectively studied by ultrasonography and compared with their fine-needle aspirative biopsy. The association between the presence and type of calcification and cytologic findings was verified through the chi-square test or likelihood ratio. Results. Thirty nodules showed calcification, of which 17 had fine calcifications, 3 had fine and gross calcifications, and 10 had only coarse calcification. Seven (41.18%) of 17 fine calcified nodules were malignant on cytology, 8 (47.06%) were benign, 1 (5,88%) was indeterminate, and 1 was suspect for malignancy. We found statistical significance between the presence of fine calcifications and malignancy (p =.001) and, in the 13 malignant nodule group, 8 (61.50%) had fine calcifications. Conclusion. This study suggests that microcalcifications were highly specific for malignancy and were present in 61% of the malignant nodules. (c) 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Long-Term Nutritional Outcome After Gastric Bypass

Weight loss and nutritional status 5 or more years after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass was prospectively documented. The hypothesis was that even after clinical adaptation, imbalances might still occur. Seventy-five consecutive patients (age 49.3 +/- 10.6 years, 89.3% females) were recruited 83.4 +/- 14.3 months after the intervention. Weight loss and nutritional abnormalities were registered. Body mass index (BMI) was 56.5 +/- 10.0 preoperatively, 29.4 +/- 6. 2 by 24 months and 34.4 +/- 14.6 when last seen. Major current deficit occurred for magnesium (32.1% of the patients), hemoglobin (50.8%), iron (29.8%), ferritin (36.0%), zinc (40.5%), vitamin B(12) (61.8%), vitamin D(3) (60.5%), and beta-carotene (56.8%). Low preoperative measurements had already been unveiled for iron, transferrin, zinc, and vitamin B(12). Total drug consumption tended to decrease after operation, and present findings correlated with excess weight loss (EWL). Also presence of diabetes and BMI value were predictors of long-term EWL, along with biochemical profile by 2 years. Multivitamin supplementation and gastrointestinal complaints partially correlated with nutritional results. (1) Good initial weight loss with moderate late regain, anemia, and multiple nutrient deficits was the common pattern. (2) Massive weight loss, frequent vomiting, dumping syndrome, and women in reproductive age were risk factors for hemoglobin or vitamin deficits, whereas superobesity, diabetes, and use of multiple drugs were associated with EWL result. (3) Most laboratory tests became stable by 2 years and along with BMI correlated with late EWL. (4) Two-year nutritional investigation is especially recommended because of its long-term predictive value.

The prognostic value of CD147/EMMPRIN is associated with monocarboxylate transporter 1 co-expression in gastric cancer

The aim of the present work was to assess the role of monocarboxylate transporters (MCTs), namely MCT1 and MCT4 as well as MCT/CD147 co-expression in gastric tissues and evaluate their clinico-pathological significance in gastric carcinoma. For that, we analysed the immunohistochemical expression of MCT1, MCT4 and CD147, in a large series of gastric samples, including non-neoplastic, tumour and metastatic tissues. A significant decrease in MCT4 plasma membrane expression was observed from non-neoplastic to gastric primary malignant tissues and to lymph-node metastasis and both MCT1 and MCT4 correlated with CD147. Importantly, both MCT4 and CD147 were more frequently expressed in Lauren`s intestinal-type tumours and MCT1/CD147 co-expression was associated with advanced gastric carcinoma, Lauren`s intestinal type, TNM staging and lymph-node metastasis. Our results showed that the prognostic value of CD147 was associated with MCTI co-expression in gastric cancer cells, supporting the view that CD147 plasma membrane activity is dependent on MCT co-expression. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Improvement of Insulin Resistance and Reduction of Cardiovascular Risk Among Obese Patients with Type 2 Diabetes with the Duodenojejunal Bypass Liner

This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of the duodenojejunal bypass liner (DJBL) in the improvement of insulin resistance and reduction of cardiovascular risk among morbidly obese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, using the triglyceride/high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol ratio, percentage of weight loss, and glycemic control. We used the TG/HDL ratio with a cutoff value of 3.5 to identify patients with insulin resistance. The value of the initial ratio was compared with the ratio obtained 6 months after implantation to evaluate whether an improvement in insulin resistance occurred. We also evaluated the improvement of glycated hemoglobin levels and the weight loss resulted from the use of the device and correlated that with the improvement of the TG/HDL ratio. All patients implanted with the device presented a statistically significant reduction of the HbA1c levels, with most patients (70.3%) obtaining diabetes control with HbA1c levels lower than 7% at the end of the study. All patients also presented a significant weight reduction, with an average loss of 12.6% of their initial weight. We observed an important improvement in insulin resistance and metabolic syndrome, with a significant reduction of the TG/HDL ratio from 5.75 to 4.36 (p < 0.001) and 42.6% of the patients presenting a TG/HDL ratio lower than 3.5 at the end of the study. The DJBL, when used for a period of 6 months, is effective in the control of diabetes, weight loss, improvement of insulin resistance, and decrease of cardiovascular risk among morbidly obese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus.