223 resultados para best estimate method


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Background: The inherent complexity of statistical methods and clinical phenomena compel researchers with diverse domains of expertise to work in interdisciplinary teams, where none of them have a complete knowledge in their counterpart's field. As a result, knowledge exchange may often be characterized by miscommunication leading to misinterpretation, ultimately resulting in errors in research and even clinical practice. Though communication has a central role in interdisciplinary collaboration and since miscommunication can have a negative impact on research processes, to the best of our knowledge, no study has yet explored how data analysis specialists and clinical researchers communicate over time. Methods/Principal Findings: We conducted qualitative analysis of encounters between clinical researchers and data analysis specialists (epidemiologist, clinical epidemiologist, and data mining specialist). These encounters were recorded and systematically analyzed using a grounded theory methodology for extraction of emerging themes, followed by data triangulation and analysis of negative cases for validation. A policy analysis was then performed using a system dynamics methodology looking for potential interventions to improve this process. Four major emerging themes were found. Definitions using lay language were frequently employed as a way to bridge the language gap between the specialties. Thought experiments presented a series of ""what if'' situations that helped clarify how the method or information from the other field would behave, if exposed to alternative situations, ultimately aiding in explaining their main objective. Metaphors and analogies were used to translate concepts across fields, from the unfamiliar to the familiar. Prolepsis was used to anticipate study outcomes, thus helping specialists understand the current context based on an understanding of their final goal. Conclusion/Significance: The communication between clinical researchers and data analysis specialists presents multiple challenges that can lead to errors.

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The broad use of transgenic and gene-targeted mice has established bone marrow-derived macrophages (BMDM) as important mammalian host cells for investigation of the macrophages biology. Over the last decade, extensive research has been done to determine how to freeze and store viable hematopoietic human cells; however, there is no information regarding generation of BMDM from frozen murine bone marrow (BM) cells. Here, we establish a highly efficient protocol to freeze murine BM cells and further generate BMDM. Cryopreserved murine BM cells maintain their potential for BMDM differentiation for more than 6 years. We compared BMDM obtained from fresh and frozen BM cells and found that both are similarly able to trigger the expression of CD80 and CD86 in response to LPS or infection with the intracellular bacteria Legionella pneumophila. Additionally, BMDM obtained from fresh or frozen BM cells equally restrict or support the intracellular multiplication of pathogens such as L. pneumophila and the protozoan parasite Leishmania (L.) amazonensis. Although further investigation are required to support the use of the method for generation of dendritic cells, preliminary experiments indicate that bone marrow-derived dendritic cells can also be generated from cryopreserved BM cells. Overall, the method described and validated herein represents a technical advance as it allows ready and easy generation of BMDM from a stock of frozen BM cells.

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Interference by autofluorescence is one of the major concerns of immunofluorescence analysis of in situ hybridization-based diagnostic assays. We present a useful technique that reduces autofluorescent background without affecting the tissue integrity or direct immunofluorescence signals in brain sections. Using six different protocols, such as ammonia/ethanol, Sudan Black B (SBB) in 70% ethanol, photobleaching with UV light and different combinations of them in both formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded and frozen human brain tissue sections, we have found that tissue treatment of SBB in a concentration of 0.1% in 70% ethanol is the best approach to reduce/eliminate tissue autofluorescence and background, while preserving the specific fluorescence hybridization signals. This strategy is a feasible, non-time consuming method that provides a reasonable compromise between total reduction of the tissue autofluorescence and maintenance of specific fluorescent labels.

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Background: Detailed analysis of the dynamic interactions among biological, environmental, social, and economic factors that favour the spread of certain diseases is extremely useful for designing effective control strategies. Diseases like tuberculosis that kills somebody every 15 seconds in the world, require methods that take into account the disease dynamics to design truly efficient control and surveillance strategies. The usual and well established statistical approaches provide insights into the cause-effect relationships that favour disease transmission but they only estimate risk areas, spatial or temporal trends. Here we introduce a novel approach that allows figuring out the dynamical behaviour of the disease spreading. This information can subsequently be used to validate mathematical models of the dissemination process from which the underlying mechanisms that are responsible for this spreading could be inferred. Methodology/Principal Findings: The method presented here is based on the analysis of the spread of tuberculosis in a Brazilian endemic city during five consecutive years. The detailed analysis of the spatio-temporal correlation of the yearly geo-referenced data, using different characteristic times of the disease evolution, allowed us to trace the temporal path of the aetiological agent, to locate the sources of infection, and to characterize the dynamics of disease spreading. Consequently, the method also allowed for the identification of socio-economic factors that influence the process. Conclusions/Significance: The information obtained can contribute to more effective budget allocation, drug distribution and recruitment of human skilled resources, as well as guiding the design of vaccination programs. We propose that this novel strategy can also be applied to the evaluation of other diseases as well as other social processes.

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Background Minimal residual disease is an important independent prognostic factor in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia. The classical detection methods such as multiparameter flow cytometry and real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction analysis are expensive, time-consuming and complex, and require considerable technical expertise. Design and Methods We analyzed 229 consecutive children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia treated according to the GBTLI-99 protocol at three different Brazilian centers. Minimal residual disease was analyzed in bone marrow samples at diagnosis and on days 14 and 28 by conventional homo/heteroduplex polymerase chain reaction using a simplified approach with consensus primers for IG and TCR gene rearrangements. Results At least one marker was detected by polymerase chain reaction in 96.4%, of the patients. By combining the minimal residual disease results obtained on days 14 and 28, three different prognostic groups were identified: minimal residual disease negative on days 14 and 28, positive on day 14/negative on day 28, and positive on both. Five-year event-free survival rates were 85%, 75.6%,, and 27.8%, respectively (p<0.0001). The same pattern of stratification held true for the group of intensively treated children. When analyzed in other subgroups of patients such as those at standard and high risk at diagnosis, those with positive B-derived CD10, patients positive for the TEL/AML1 transcript, and patients in morphological remission on a day 28 marrow, the event-free survival rate was found to be significantly lower in patients with positive minimal residual disease on day 28. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that the detection of minimal residual disease on day 28 is the most significant prognostic factor. Conclusions This simplified strategy for detection of minimal residual disease was feasible, reproducible, cheaper and simpler when compared with other methods, and allowed powerful discrimination between children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia with a good and poor outcome.

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Background: The establishment of an in vitro production (IVP) of embryo in swine allows the generation of embryos with the same quality as in vivo produced embryos with less costs and time. In order to achieve successful fertilization under normal circumstances in vivo, mammalian spermatozoa must first undergo capacitation and then acrosome reaction. The purpose of this study was compared the efficacious of IP/CFDA fluorescence and Coomassie Blue G (CB) staining to detect capacitated sperm cells in refrigerated and fresh semen. Morever, it was investigated the efficacious of caffeine and chondroitin sulphate to promote in vitro sperm capacitation and in vitro embryo produced (IVP) of swine embryos. Materials, Methods & Results: A sperm-rich fraction from ejaculate was obtained using the gloved-hand method and the gel-free fraction was separated using sterile gauze. The semen was diluted in BTS at a final concentration of 1.5 x 10(8) cells/mL. The sperm suspension was incubated for 2 h at 25 degrees C, refrigerated and maintained for 1 h at 15-18 degrees C (refrigerated group) or used immediately (fresh group). Sperm capacitation was assessed by IP/CFDA fluorescence and CB staining for both fresh and refrigerated semen. For PI/CFDA evaluation, a final solution containing 1.7 mM formaldehyde, 7.3 mM PI and 20 mM CFDA in 950 mu L saline was prepared. In the dark, 40 mu L PI/CFDA final solution was added to 10 mu L semen and after 8 min, slides were analyzed on epifluorescence microscopy. For CB evaluation, sperm cells were fixed in 4% paraformaldehyde for 10 min and centrifuged twice at 320 x g in ammonium acetate pH 9 for 8 min. A smear was made and stained with 2.75 mg/mL CB in solution containing 12.5% methanol, 25% glacial acetic acid and 62.5% water, for 2 min. The smear was washed in running water, air dried and sealed with Permount (R), diluted 2:1 in xilol to avoid staining oxidation. Our results showed that refrigeration did not affect sperm capacitation and comparing staining methods, the PI/CFDA combination was more efficient to detect capacitated sperm, when compared to CB staining. In experiment 2, we evaluated the effect of different incubation time (1 - 5 h) with chondroitin sulfate and caffeine on sperm capacitation. For in vitro fertilization, oocytes were obtained from slaughterhouse ovaries. Oocytes with a thick and intact cumulus oophurus layer and cytoplasm with homogenous granules were selected for in vitro maturation for 44 h. According to the results of experiment 2, it was used for in vitro fertilization refrigerated semen was capacitated with 50 mu g/mL chondroitin sulfate for 2 h or capacitated with 5 mu g/mL caffeine for 3 h. Six hours after insemination, cumulus oophorus cells were mechanically removed and oocytes were washed and incubated in microdrops of culture medium. Embryo development after fertilization with sperm capacitated with caffeine or chondroitin sulfate was evaluated on days 3, 5 and 7 of culture. No differences were observed in days 3 or 5 of in vitro culture. However, it was observed an increase on blastocyst rate on Day 7 of culture when caffeine was used as the capacitor agent. Discussion: Molecular basis of sperm capacitation is still poor understood. Sperm capacitation can occur in vitro spontaneously in defined media without addition of biological fluids. We observed that sperm capacitation increased as incubation period enlarged and it was observed using Coomassie blue G and PI/CFDA for fresh semen and for refrigerated semen. It can be concluded that the cooling of semen did not change their pattern of sperm capacitation and this is best assessed by IP/CFDA than by CB. In addition to the use of caffeine in sperm capacitation produces more blastocysts than the chondroitin sulfate after in vitro fertilization.

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Data from the slaughter of 24,001 chickens that were part of a selection program for the production of commercial broilers were used to estimate genetic trend for absolute carcass (CW), breast meat (BRW), and leg (LW) weights, and relative carcass (CY), breast meat (BRY), and leg (LY) weights. The components of (co) variance and breeding values of individuals were obtained by the restricted maximum likelihood method applied to animal models. The relationship matrix was composed of 132,442 birds. The models included as random effects, maternal additive genetic and permanent environmental for CW, BRW, LW, CY, and BRY, and only maternal permanent environmental for LY, besides the direct additive genetic and residual effects, and as fixed effects, hatch week, parents' mating group and sex. The estimates of genetic trend were obtained by average regression of breeding value on generation, and the average genetic trend was estimated by regression coefficients. The genetic trends for CW (+ 6.0336 g/generation), BRW (+ 3.6723 g/generation), LW (+ 1.5846 g/generation), CY (+ 0.1195%/generation), and BRY (+ 0.1388%/generation) were positive, and they were in accordance with the objectives of the selection program for these traits. The genetic trend for LY(-0.0019%/generation) was negative, possibly due to the strong emphasis on selection for BRY and the negative correlations between these two traits.

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This paper presents a new statistical algorithm to estimate rainfall over the Amazon Basin region using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI). The algorithm relies on empirical relationships derived for different raining-type systems between coincident measurements of surface rainfall rate and 85-GHz polarization-corrected brightness temperature as observed by the precipitation radar (PR) and TMI on board the TRMM satellite. The scheme includes rain/no-rain area delineation (screening) and system-type classification routines for rain retrieval. The algorithm is validated against independent measurements of the TRMM-PR and S-band dual-polarization Doppler radar (S-Pol) surface rainfall data for two different periods. Moreover, the performance of this rainfall estimation technique is evaluated against well-known methods, namely, the TRMM-2A12 [ the Goddard profiling algorithm (GPROF)], the Goddard scattering algorithm (GSCAT), and the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) algorithms. The proposed algorithm shows a normalized bias of approximately 23% for both PR and S-Pol ground truth datasets and a mean error of 0.244 mm h(-1) ( PR) and -0.157 mm h(-1)(S-Pol). For rain volume estimates using PR as reference, a correlation coefficient of 0.939 and a normalized bias of 0.039 were found. With respect to rainfall distributions and rain area comparisons, the results showed that the formulation proposed is efficient and compatible with the physics and dynamics of the observed systems over the area of interest. The performance of the other algorithms showed that GSCAT presented low normalized bias for rain areas and rain volume [0.346 ( PR) and 0.361 (S-Pol)], and GPROF showed rainfall distribution similar to that of the PR and S-Pol but with a bimodal distribution. Last, the five algorithms were evaluated during the TRMM-Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) 1999 field campaign to verify the precipitation characteristics observed during the easterly and westerly Amazon wind flow regimes. The proposed algorithm presented a cumulative rainfall distribution similar to the observations during the easterly regime, but it underestimated for the westerly period for rainfall rates above 5 mm h(-1). NESDIS(1) overestimated for both wind regimes but presented the best westerly representation. NESDIS(2), GSCAT, and GPROF underestimated in both regimes, but GPROF was closer to the observations during the easterly flow.

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A new age-redshift test is proposed in order to constrain H(0) on the basis of the existence of old high-redshift galaxies (OHRGs). In the flat Lambda cold dark matter model, the value of H(0) is heavily dependent on the mass density parameter Omega(M) = 1- Omega(Lambda). Such a degeneracy can be broken through a joint analysis involving the OHRG and baryon acoustic oscillation signature. By assuming a galaxy incubation time, t(inc) = 0.8 +/- 0.4 Gyr, our joint analysis yields a value of H(0) = 71 +/- 4 km s(-1) Mpc(-1) (1 sigma) with the best-fit density parameter Omega(M) = 0.27 +/- 0.03. Such results are in good agreement with independent studies from the Hubble Space Telescope key project and recent estimates of the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe, thereby suggesting that the combination of these two independent phenomena provides an interesting method to constrain the Hubble constant.

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Context. The chemical composition of extremely metal-poor stars (EMP stars; [Fe/H] < similar to -3) is a unique tracer of early nucleosynthesis in the Galaxy. As such stars are rare, we wish to find classes of luminous stars which can be studied at high spectral resolution. Aims. We aim to determine the detailed chemical composition of the two EMP stars CS 30317-056 and CS 22881-039, originally thought to be red horizontal-branch (RHB) stars, and compare it to earlier results for EMP stars as well as to nucleosynthesis yields from various supernova (SN) models. In the analysis, we discovered that our targets are in fact the two most metal-poor RR Lyrae stars known. Methods. Our detailed abundance analysis, taking into account the variability of the stars, is based on VLT/UVES spectra (R similar or equal to 43 000) and 1D LTE OSMARCS model atmospheres and synthetic spectra. For comparison with SN models we also estimate NLTE corrections for a number of elements. Results. We derive LTE abundances for the 16 elements O, Na, Mg, Al, Si, S, Ca, Sc, Ti, Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Sr and Ba, in good agreement with earlier values for EMP dwarf, giant and RHB stars. Li and C are not detected in either star. NLTE abundance corrections are newly calculated for O and Mg and taken from the literature for other elements. The resulting abundance pattern is best matched by model yields for supernova explosions with high energy and/or significant asphericity effects. Conclusions. Our results indicate that, except for Li and C, the surface composition of EMP RR Lyr stars is not significantly affected by mass loss, mixing or diffusion processes; hence, EMP RR Lyr stars should also be useful tracers of the chemical evolution of the early Galactic halo. The observed abundance ratios indicate that these stars were born from an ISM polluted by energetic, massive (25-40 M(circle dot)) and/or aspherical supernovae, but the NLTE corrections for Sc and certain other elements do play a role in the choice of model.

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Aims. We determine the age and mass of the three best solar twin candidates in open cluster M 67 through lithium evolutionary models. Methods. We computed a grid of evolutionary models with non-standard mixing at metallicity [Fe/H] = 0.01 with the Toulouse-Geneva evolution code for a range of stellar masses. We estimated the mass and age of 10 solar analogs belonging to the open cluster M 67. We made a detailed study of the three solar twins of the sample, YPB637, YPB1194, and YPB1787. Results. We obtained a very accurate estimation of the mass of our solar analogs in M 67 by interpolating in the grid of evolutionary models. The three solar twins allowed us to estimate the age of the open cluster, which is 3.87(-0.66)(+0.55) Gyr, which is better constrained than former estimates. Conclusions. Our results show that the 3 solar twin candidates have one solar mass within the errors and that M 67 has a solar age within the errors, validating its use as a solar proxy. M 67 is an important cluster when searching for solar twins.

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Context. Determination of the ages of central stars of planetary nebulae (CSPN) is a complex problem, and there is presently no single method that can be generally applied. We have developed several methods of estimating the ages of CSPN, based on both the observed nebular properties and some properties of the stars themselves. Aims. Our aim is to estimate the ages and the age distribution of CSPN and to compare the derived results with mass and age determinations of CSPN and white dwarfs based on empirical determinations of these quantities. Methods. We considered a sample of planetary nebulae in the galactic disk, most of which (similar to 69%) are located in the solar neighbourhood, within 3 kpc from the Sun. We discuss several methods of deriving the age distribution of CSPN, namely; (i) the use of an age-metallicity relation that also depends on the galactocentric distance; (ii) the use of an age-metallicity relation obtained for the galactic disk; and (iii) the determination of ages from the central star masses obtained from the observed nitrogen abundances. Results. We estimated the age distribution of CSPN with average uncertainties of 1-2 Gyr, and compared our results with the expected distribution based both on the observed mass distribution of white dwarfs and on the age distribution derived from available mass distributions of CSPN. Based on our derived age distributions, we conclude that most CSPN in the galactic disk have ages under 6 Gyr, and that the age distribution is peaked around 2-4 Gyr.

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We have developed a new procedure to search for carbon-enhanced metal-poor (CEMP) stars from the Hamburg/ESO (HES) prism-survey plates. This method employs an extended line index for the CH G band, which we demonstrate to have superior performance when compared to the narrower G-band index formerly employed to estimate G-band strengths for these spectra. Although CEMP stars have been found previously among candidate metal-poor stars selected from the HES, the selection on metallicity undersamples the population of intermediate-metallicity CEMP stars (-2.5 <= [Fe/H] <= -1.0); such stars are of importance for constraining the onset of the s-process in metal-deficient asymptotic giant branch stars (thought to be associated with the origin of carbon for roughly 80% of CEMP stars). The new candidates also include substantial numbers of warmer carbon-enhanced stars, which were missed in previous HES searches for carbon stars due to selection criteria that emphasized cooler stars. A first subsample, biased toward brighter stars (B < 15.5), has been extracted from the scanned HES plates. After visual inspection (to eliminate spectra compromised by plate defects, overlapping spectra, etc., and to carry out rough spectral classifications), a list of 669 previously unidentified candidate CEMP stars was compiled. Follow-up spectroscopy for a pilot sample of 132 candidates was obtained with the Goodman spectrograph on the SOAR 4.1 m telescope. Our results show that most of the observed stars lie in the targeted metallicity range, and possess prominent carbon absorption features at 4300 angstrom. The success rate for the identification of new CEMP stars is 43% (13 out of 30) for [Fe/H] < -2.0. For stars with [Fe/H] < -2.5, the ratio increases to 80% (four out of five objects), including one star with [Fe/H] < -3.0.

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Aims. In this work, we describe the pipeline for the fast supervised classification of light curves observed by the CoRoT exoplanet CCDs. We present the classification results obtained for the first four measured fields, which represent a one-year in-orbit operation. Methods. The basis of the adopted supervised classification methodology has been described in detail in a previous paper, as is its application to the OGLE database. Here, we present the modifications of the algorithms and of the training set to optimize the performance when applied to the CoRoT data. Results. Classification results are presented for the observed fields IRa01, SRc01, LRc01, and LRa01 of the CoRoT mission. Statistics on the number of variables and the number of objects per class are given and typical light curves of high-probability candidates are shown. We also report on new stellar variability types discovered in the CoRoT data. The full classification results are publicly available.

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Size-resolved vertical aerosol number fluxes of particles in the diameter range 0.25-2.5 mu m were measured with the eddy covariance method from a 53 m high tower over the Amazon rain forest, 60 km NNW of Manaus, Brazil. This study focuses on data measured during the relatively clean wet season, but a shorter measurement period from the more polluted dry season is used as a comparison. Size-resolved net particle fluxes of the five lowest size bins, representing 0.25-0.45 mu m in diameter, were in general dominated by deposition in more or less all wind sectors in the wet season. This is an indication that the source of primary biogenic aerosol particles may be small in this particle size range. Transfer velocities within this particle size range were observed to increase linearly with increasing friction velocity and increasing particle diameter. In the diameter range 0.5-2.5 mu m, vertical particle fluxes were highly dependent on wind direction. In wind sectors where anthropogenic influence was low, net upward fluxes were observed. However, in wind sectors associated with higher anthropogenic influence, deposition fluxes dominated. The net upward fluxes were interpreted as a result of primary biogenic aerosol emission, but deposition of anthropogenic particles seems to have masked this emission in wind sectors with higher anthropogenic influence. The net emission fluxes were at maximum in the afternoon when the mixed layer is well developed, and were best correlated with horizontal wind speed according to the equation log(10)F = 0.48.U + 2.21 where F is the net emission number flux of 0.5-2.5 mu m particles [m(-2) s(-1)] and U is the horizontal wind speed [ms(-1)] at the top of the tower.