A generalized modified Weibull distribution for lifetime modeling

A four parameter generalization of the Weibull distribution capable of modeling a bathtub-shaped hazard rate function is defined and studied. The beauty and importance of this distribution lies in its ability to model monotone as well as non-monotone failure rates, which are quite common in lifetime problems and reliability. The new distribution has a number of well-known lifetime special sub-models, such as the Weibull, extreme value, exponentiated Weibull, generalized Rayleigh and modified Weibull distributions, among others. We derive two infinite sum representations for its moments. The density of the order statistics is obtained. The method of maximum likelihood is used for estimating the model parameters. Also, the observed information matrix is obtained. Two applications are presented to illustrate the proposed distribution. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Regression models for grouped survival data: Estimation and sensitivity analysis

In this study, regression models are evaluated for grouped survival data when the effect of censoring time is considered in the model and the regression structure is modeled through four link functions. The methodology for grouped survival data is based on life tables, and the times are grouped in k intervals so that ties are eliminated. Thus, the data modeling is performed by considering the discrete models of lifetime regression. The model parameters are estimated by using the maximum likelihood and jackknife methods. To detect influential observations in the proposed models, diagnostic measures based on case deletion, which are denominated global influence, and influence measures based on small perturbations in the data or in the model, referred to as local influence, are used. In addition to those measures, the local influence and the total influential estimate are also employed. Various simulation studies are performed and compared to the performance of the four link functions of the regression models for grouped survival data for different parameter settings, sample sizes and numbers of intervals. Finally, a data set is analyzed by using the proposed regression models. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatio-temporal modeling of agricultural yield data with an application to pricing crop insurance contracts

This article presents a statistical model of agricultural yield data based on a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that allows joint modeling of temporal and spatial autocorrelation. This method captures a comprehensive range of the various uncertainties involved in predicting crop insurance premium rates as opposed to the more traditional ad hoc, two-stage methods that are typically based on independent estimation and prediction. A panel data set of county-average yield data was analyzed for 290 counties in the State of Parana (Brazil) for the period of 1990 through 2002. Posterior predictive criteria are used to evaluate different model specifications. This article provides substantial improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to situations where data are limited.

Probable consequences of the mitigation of citrus canker eradication methodology in Sao Paulo state

Probable consequences of the mitigation of citrus canker eradication methodology in Sao Paulo state Recently the Sao Paulo state government mitigated its citrus canker eradication methodology adopted since 1999. In April 2009 at least 99.8% of commercial sweet orange orchards were free of citrus canker in Sao Paulo state. Consequently the mitigation of the eradication methodology reduced the high level of safety and the competitiveness of the citrus production sector in Sao Paulo state, Brazil. Therefore we suggest the re-adoption of the same eradication methodology of citrus canker adopted in Sao Paulo from 1999 to 2009, or the adoption of a new methodology, effective for citrus canker suppression, because in new sample surveys citrus canker was detected in >0.36% of affected orchards. This incidence threshold was calculated by using the Duncan test (P <= 0.05) to compare the yearly sample surveys conducted in Sao Paulo state to estimate citrus canker incidence between 1999 and 2009. The calculated minimum significant level was 0.28% among sample surveys and the lowest citrus canker incidence in Sao Paulo state was 0.08%, occurring in 2001. Thus, as an alternative, we suggest the adoption of a new eradication methodology for citrus canker suppression when a new sample survey detected >0.36% of affected orchards in Sao Paulo state, Brazil.

Modeling of transpiration reduction in van Genuchten-Mualem type soils

We derive an analytic expression for the matric flux potential (M) for van Genuchten-Mualem (VGM) type soils which can also be written in terms of a converging infinite series. Considering the first four terms of this series, the accuracy of the approximation was verified by comparing it to values of M estimated by numerical finite difference integration. Using values of the parameters for three soils from different texture classes, the proposed four-term approximation showed an almost perfect match with the numerical solution, except for effective saturations higher than 0.9. Including more terms reduced the discrepancy but also increased the complexity of the equation. The four-term equation can be used for most applications. Cases with special interest in nearly saturated soils should include more terms from the infinite series. A transpiration reduction function for use with the VGM equations is derived by combining the derived expression for M with a root water extraction model. The shape of the resulting reduction function and its dependency on the derivative of the soil hydraulic diffusivity D with respect to the soil water content theta is discussed. Positive and negative values of dD/d theta yield concave and convex or S-shaped reduction functions, respectively. On the basis of three data sets, the hydraulic properties of virtually all soils yield concave reduction curves. Such curves based solely on soil hydraulic properties do not account for the complex interactions between shoot growth, root growth, and water availability.

Modeling soil organic carbon dynamics in Oxisols of Ibiruba (Brazil) with the Century Model

introduction of conservation practices in degraded agricultural land will generally recuperate soil quality, especially by increasing soil organic matter. This aspect of soil organic C (SOC) dynamics under distinct cropping and management systems can be conveniently analyzed with ecosystem models such as the Century Model. In this study, Century was used to simulate SOC stocks in farm fields of the Ibiruba region of north central Rio Grande do Sul state in Southern Brazil. The region, where soils are predominantly Oxisols, was originally covered with subtropical woodlands and grasslands. SOC dynamics was simulated with a general scenario developed with historical data on soil management and cropping systems beginning with the onset of agriculture in 1900. From 1993 to 2050, two contrasting scenarios based on no-tillage soil management were established: the status quo scenario, with crops and agricultural inputs as currently practiced in the region and the high biomass scenario with increased frequency of corn in the cropping system, resulting in about 80% higher biomass addition to soils. Century simulations were in close agreement with SOC stocks measured in 2005 in the Oxisols with finer texture surface horizon originally under woodlands. However, simulations in the Oxisols with loamy surface horizon under woodlands and in the grassland soils were not as accurate. SOC stock decreased from 44% to 50% in fields originally under woodland and from 20% to 27% in fields under grasslands with the introduction of intensive annual grain crops with intensive tillage and harrowing operations. The adoption of conservation practices in the 1980s led to a stabilization of SOC stocks followed by a partial recovery of native stocks. Simulations to 2050 indicate that maintaining status quo would allow SOC stocks to recover from 81% to 86% of the native stocks under woodland and from 80% to 91 % of the native stocks under grasslands. Adoption of a high biomass scenario would result in stocks from 75% to 95% of the original stocks under woodlands and from 89% to 102% in the grasslands by 2050. These simulations outcomes underline the importance of cropping system yielding higher biomass to further increase SOC content in these Oxisols. This application of the Century Model could reproduce general trends of SOC loss and recovery in the Oxisols of the Ibiruba region. Additional calibration and validation should be conducted before extensive usage of Century as a support tool for soil carbon sequestration projects in this and other regions can be recommended. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sensory evaluation and physicochemical optimisation of soy-based desserts using response surface methodology

The objective of this study was to develop a dessert that contains soy protein (SP) (1%, 2%, 3%) and guava juice (GJ) (22%, 27%, 32%) using Response Surface Methodology (RSM) as the optimisation technique. Water activity, physical stability, colour, acidity, pH, iron, and carotenoid contents were analysed. Affective tests were performed to determine the degree of liking of colour, creaminess, and acceptability. The results showed that GJ increased the values of redness, hue angle, chromaticity, acidity, and carotenoid content, while SP reduced water activity. Optimisation suggested a dessert containing 32% GJ and 1.17% SP as the best proportion of these components. This sample was considered a source of fibres, ascorbic acid, copper, and iron and garnered scores above the level of `slightly liked` for sensory attributes. Moreover, RSM was shown to be an adequate approach for modelling the physicochemical parameters and the degree of liking of creaminess of desserts. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Physical Stability Assessment and Sensory Optimization of a Dairy-Free Emulsion Using Response Surface Methodology

Desserts made with soy cream, which are oil-in-water emulsions, are widely consumed by lactose-intolerant individuals in Brazil. In this regard, this study aimed at using response surface methodology (RSM) to optimize the sensory attributes of a soy-based emulsion over a range of pink guava juice (GJ: 22% to 32%) and soy protein (SP: 1% to 3%). WHC and backscattering were analyzed after 72 h of storage at 7 degrees C. Furthermore, a rating test was performed to determine the degree of liking of color, taste, creaminess, appearance, and overall acceptability. The data showed that the samples were stable against gravity and storage. The models developed by RSM adequately described the creaminess, taste, and appearance of the emulsions. The response surface of the desirability function was used successfully in the optimization of the sensory properties of dairy-free emulsions, suggesting that a product with 30.35% GJ and 3% SP was the best combination of these components. The optimized sample presented suitable sensory properties, in addition to being a source of dietary fiber, iron, copper, and ascorbic acid.

Molecular Modeling Suggests Cruzain Specificity for Peptide Primaquine Prodrugs

Chagas` disease, infection caused by the protozoan Trypanosoma cruzi, is an important, social and medical ailment in the Latin America. This disease is endemic in 21 countries, mostly Latin America countries, with more than 300,000 new cases every year and about 16-18 million infected people. Current therapy is not effective in the chronic phase of the disease. Thus, new and better drugs are urgently needed. In this sense, the in vitro activity of primaquine (PQ) was reported. Based on this, peptide prodrugs of primaquine containing dipeptides - lysine-arginine (LysArg), phenylalanine-alanine (PheAla) and phenylalanine-arginine (PheArg) -- as carriers, were designed to be selectively cleaved by cruzain, a specific cysteine protease of T. cruzi. The prodrugs have shown to be active against tripomastigote forms according to this order: LysArg-PQ> PheAla-PQ> PheArg-PQ. The molecular mechanism of action considered a probable nucleophilic attack of the catalytic residue of cruzain (Cys25) on the respective prodrug amide carbonyl carbon, releasing PQ. In order to test this hypothesis, molecular modeling studies were performed, physicochemical parameters and stereoelectronic features calculated by using the AM1 semi-empirical method suggest that the amide carbonyl carbon is favorable for cleavage, where the LysArg showed the most electronic reactive and sterically disposable, leading to the prodrug release and action. In addition, the docking study indicates the occurrence of specific interactions between prodrugs and the pockets S1 and S2 of cruzain through the dipeptides carriers, being the distance between cruzain Cys25 and the amide carbonyl group related to the biological activity of the prodrugs.

QSAR Modeling of a Set of Pyrazinoate Esters as Antituberculosis Prodrugs

Tuberculosis is an infection caused mainly by Mycobacterium tuberculosis. A first-line antimycobacterial drug is pyrazinamide (PZA), which acts partially as a prodrug activated by a pyrazinamidase releasing the active agent, pyrazinoic acid (POA). As pyrazinoic acid presents some difficulty to cross the mycobacterial cell wall, and also the pyrazinamide-resistant strains do not express the pyrazinamidase, a set of pyrazinoic acid esters have been evaluated as antimycobacterial agents. In this work, a QSAR approach was applied to a set of forty-three pyrazinoates against M. tuberculosis ATCC 27294, using genetic algorithm function and partial least squares regression (WOLF 5.5 program). The independent variables selected were the Balaban index (I), calculated n-octanol/water partition coefficient (ClogP), van-der-Waals surface area, dipole moment, and stretching-energy contribution. The final QSAR model (N = 32, r(2) = 0.68, q(2) = 0.59, LOF = 0.25, and LSE = 0.19) was fully validated employing leave-N-out cross-validation and y-scrambling techniques. The test set (N = 11) presented an external prediction power of 73%. In conclusion, the QSAR model generated can be used as a valuable tool to optimize the activity of future pyrazinoic acid esters in the designing of new antituberculosis agents.

Molecular modeling as a promising tool to study dendrimer prodrugs delivery

Molecular modeling methodologies were applied to perform preliminary studies concerning the release of active agents from potentially antichagasic and antileishmanial dendrimer prodrugs. The dendrimer was designed having myo-inositol as a core, L-malic acid as a spacer group, and hydroxymethylnitrofurazone (NFOH), 3-hydroxyflavone or quercetin, as active compounds. Each dendrimer presented a particular behavior concerning to the following investigated properties: spatial hindrance, map of electrostatic potential (MEP), and the lowest unoccupied molecular orbital energy (E(LUMO)). Additionally, the findings suggested that the carbonyl group next to the active agent seems to be the most promising ester breaking point. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

LC-UV Methodology for Simultaneous Determination of Lamivudine and Zidovudine in Plasma by Liquid-Liquid Extraction

This study describes an accurate, sensitive, and specific chromatographic method for the simultaneous quantitative determination of lamivudine and zidovudine in human blood plasma, using stavudine as an internal standard. The chromatographic separation was performed using a C8 column (150 x 4.6 mm, 5 mu m), and ultraviolet absorbency detection at 270 nm with gradient elution. Two mobile phases were used. Phase A contained 10 mM potassium phosphate and 3% acetonitrile, whereas Phase B contained methanol. A linear gradient was used with a variability of A-B phase proportion from 98-2% to 72-28%, respectively. The drug extraction was performed with two 4 mL aliquots of ethyl acetate.

Molecular modeling and QSAR studies of a set of indole and benzimidazole derivatives as H(4) receptor antagonists

Histamine is an important biogenic amine, which acts with a group of four G-protein coupled receptors (GPCRs), namely H(1) to H(4) (H(1)R - H(4)R) receptors. The actions of histamine at H(4)R are related to immunological and inflammatory processes, particularly in pathophysiology of asthma, and H(4)R ligands having antagonistic properties could be helpful as antiinflammatory agents. In this work, molecular modeling and QSAR studies of a set of 30 compounds, indole and benzimidazole derivatives, as H(4)R antagonists were performed. The QSAR models were built and optimized using a genetic algorithm function and partial least squares regression (WOLF 5.5 program). The best QSAR model constructed with training set (N = 25) presented the following statistical measures: r (2) = 0.76, q (2) = 0.62, LOF = 0.15, and LSE = 0.07, and was validated using the LNO and y-randomization techniques. Four of five compounds of test set were well predicted by the selected QSAR model, which presented an external prediction power of 80%. These findings can be quite useful to aid the designing of new anti-H(4) compounds with improved biological response.

Processing optimization of probiotic yogurt containing glucose oxidase using response surface methodology

Exposure to oxygen may induce a lack of functionality of probiotic dairy foods because the anaerobic metabolism of probiotic bacteria compromises during storage the maintenance of their viability to provide benefits to consumer health. Glucose oxidase can constitute a potential alternative to increase the survival of probiotic bacteria in yogurt because it consumes the oxygen permeating to the inside of the pot during storage, thus making it possible to avoid the use of chemical additives. This research aimed to optimize the processing of probiotic yogurt supplemented with glucose oxidase using response surface methodology and to determine the levels of glucose and glucose oxidase that minimize the concentration of dissolved oxygen and maximize the Bifidobacterium longum count by the desirability function. Response surface methodology mathematical models adequately described the process, with adjusted determination coefficients of 83% for the oxygen and 94% for the B. longum. Linear and quadratic effects of the glucose oxidase were reported for the oxygen model, whereas for the B. longum count model an influence of the glucose oxidase at the linear level was observed followed by the quadratic influence of glucose and quadratic effect of glucose oxidase. The desirability function indicated that 62.32 ppm of glucose oxidase and 4.35 ppm of glucose was the best combination of these components for optimization of probiotic yogurt processing. An additional validation experiment was performed and results showed acceptable error between the predicted and experimental results.

Host-guest complexation of a nitroheterocyclic compound with cyclodextrins: a spectrofluorimetric and molecular modeling study

Nitroheterocyclic compounds (NC) were candidate drugs proposed for Chagas disease chemotherapy. In this study, we investigated the complexation of hydroxymethylnitrofurazone (NFOH), a potential antichagasic compound, with alpha-cyclodextrin (alpha-CD), beta-cyclodextrin (beta-CD), Hydroxypropyl-beta-cyclodextrin (HP-beta-CD), Dimethyl-beta-cyclodextrin (DM-beta-CD) and gamma-cyclodextrin (gamma-CD) by fluorescence spectroscopy and molecular modeling studies. Hildebrand-Benesi equation was used to calculate the formation constants of NFOH with cyclodextrins based on the fluorescence differences in the CDs solution. The complexing capacity of NFOH with different CDs was compared through the results of association constant according to the following order: DM-beta-CD > beta-CD > alpha-CD > HP-beta-CD > gamma-CD. Molecular modeling studies give support for the experimental assignments, in favor of the formation of an inclusion complex between cyclodextrins with NFOH. This is an important study to investigate the effects of different kinds of cyclodextrins on the inclusion complex formation with NFOH and to better characterize a potential formulations to be used as therapeutic options for the oral treatment of Chagas disease.