Lightning-Induced Voltages on Overhead Lines-Application of the Extended Rusck Model

Lightning-induced overvoltages have a considerable impact on the power quality of overhead distribution and telecommunications systems, and various models have been developed for the computation of the electromagnetic transients caused by indirect strokes. The most adequate has been shown to be the one proposed by Agrawal et al.; the Rusck model can be visualized as a particular case, as both models are equivalent when the lightning channel is perpendicular to the ground plane. In this paper, an extension of the Rusck model that enables the calculation of lightning-induced transients considering flashes to nearby elevated structures and realistic line configurations is tested against data obtained from both natural lightning and scale model experiments. The latter, performed under controlled conditions, can be used also to verify the validity of other coupling models and relevant codes. The so-called Extended Rusck Model, which is shown to be sufficiently accurate, is applied to the analysis of lightning-induced voltages on lines with a shield wire and/or surge arresters. The investigation conducted indicates that the ratio between the peak values of the voltages induced by typical first and subsequent strokes can be either greater or smaller than the unity, depending on the line configuration.

Reachability of the synchronous state in a mutually connected PLL network

Second-order phase locked loops (PLLs) are devices that are able to provide synchronization between the nodes in a network even under severe quality restrictions in the signal propagation. Consequently, they are widely used in telecommunication and control. Conventional master-slave (M-S) clock-distribution systems are being, replaced by mutually connected (MC) ones due to their good potential to be used in new types of application such as wireless sensor networks, distributed computation and communication systems. Here, by using an analytical reasoning, a nonlinear algebraic system of equations is proposed to establish the existence conditions for the synchronous state in an MC PLL network. Numerical experiments confirm the analytical results and provide ideas about how the network parameters affect the reachability of the synchronous state. The phase-difference oscillation amplitudes are related to the node parameters helping to design PLL neural networks. Furthermore, estimation of the acquisition time depending on the node parameters allows the performance evaluation of time distribution systems and neural networks based on phase-locked techniques. (c) 2008 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Jointly multi-user detection and channel estimation with genetic algorithm

This work aims at proposing the use of the evolutionary computation methodology in order to jointly solve the multiuser channel estimation (MuChE) and detection problems at its maximum-likelihood, both related to the direct sequence code division multiple access (DS/CDMA). The effectiveness of the proposed heuristic approach is proven by comparing performance and complexity merit figures with that obtained by traditional methods found in literature. Simulation results considering genetic algorithm (GA) applied to multipath, DS/CDMA and MuChE and multi-user detection (MuD) show that the proposed genetic algorithm multi-user channel estimation (GAMuChE) yields a normalized mean square error estimation (nMSE) inferior to 11%, under slowly varying multipath fading channels, large range of Doppler frequencies and medium system load, it exhibits lower complexity when compared to both maximum likelihood multi-user channel estimation (MLMuChE) and gradient descent method (GrdDsc). A near-optimum multi-user detector (MuD) based on the genetic algorithm (GAMuD), also proposed in this work, provides a significant reduction in the computational complexity when compared to the optimum multi-user detector (OMuD). In addition, the complexity of the GAMuChE and GAMuD algorithms were (jointly) analyzed in terms of number of operations necessary to reach the convergence, and compared to other jointly MuChE and MuD strategies. The joint GAMuChE-GAMuD scheme can be regarded as a promising alternative for implementing third-generation (3G) and fourth-generation (4G) wireless systems in the near future. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Multiple synchronous states in static delay-free mutually connected PLL networks

In many engineering applications, the time coordination of geographically separated events is of fundamental importance, as in digital telecommunications and integrated digital circuits. Mutually connected (MC) networks are very good candidates for some new types of application, such as wireless sensor networks. This paper presents a study on the behavior of MC networks of digital phase-locked loops (DPLLs). Analytical results are derived showing that, even for static networks without delays, different synchronous states may exist for the network. An upper bound for the number of such states is also presented. Numerical simulations are used to show the following results: (i) the synchronization precision in MC DPLLs networks; (ii) the existence of synchronous states for the network does not guarantee its achievement and (iii) different synchronous states may be achieved for different initial conditions. These results are important in the neural computation context. as in this case, each synchronous state may be associated to a different analog memory information. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Resource use pattern analysis for predicting resource availability in opportunistic grids

This work presents a method for predicting resource availability in opportunistic grids by means of use pattern analysis (UPA), a technique based on non-supervised learning methods. This prediction method is based on the assumption of the existence of several classes of computational resource use patterns, which can be used to predict the resource availability. Trace-driven simulations validate this basic assumptions, which also provide the parameter settings for the accurate learning of resource use patterns. Experiments made with an implementation of the UPA method show the feasibility of its use in the scheduling of grid tasks with very little overhead. The experiments also demonstrate the method`s superiority over other predictive and non-predictive methods. An adaptative prediction method is suggested to deal with the lack of training data at initialization. Further adaptative behaviour is motivated by experiments which show that, in some special environments, reliable resource use patterns may not always be detected. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A modified epidemiological model for computer viruses

Since the computer viruses pose a serious problem to individual and corporative computer systems, a lot of effort has been dedicated to study how to avoid their deleterious actions, trying to create anti-virus programs acting as vaccines in personal computers or in strategic network nodes. Another way to combat viruses propagation is to establish preventive policies based on the whole operation of a system that can be modeled with population models, similar to those that are used in epidemiological studies. Here, a modified version of the SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model is presented and how its parameters are related to network characteristics is explained. Then, disease-free and endemic equilibrium points are calculated, stability and bifurcation conditions are derived and some numerical simulations are shown. The relations among the model parameters in the several bifurcation conditions allow a network design minimizing viruses risks. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Repeated disturbances and canopy disturbance regime in a tropical semi-deciduous forest

The canopy disturbance regime and the influence of gap methods on the interpretation of forest structure and dynamics were evaluated in a tropical semi-deciduous forest in south-eastern Brazil. We encountered a gap density of 11.2 gaps ha(-1) and an average size which varied from 121 to 333 m(2) depending on the gap delimitation method considered (minimum gap size was 10 m(2)). Although average size was slightly higher, the median value obtained (78 m(2)) was comparable to other tropical forest sites and the gap size-class distribution found supported the pattern described for such forest sites. Among 297 gap makers, snapping and uprooting were the most common modes of disturbance. The number and basal area of gap makers were good predictors of gap size. Almost 25% of all gaps suffered from repeated disturbance events that brought about larger gap sizes. Such processes, along with delimitation methods, strongly influenced the estimation of turnover rate and therefore the interpretation of forest dynamics. These results demonstrated the importance of further studies on repeated disturbances, which is often neglected in forest studies.

A Brazilian registry of juvenile dermatomyositis: onset features and classification of 189 cases

Objective To describe onset features, classification and treatment of juvenile dermatomyositis (JDM) and juvenile polymyositis (JPM) from a multicentre registry. Methods Inclusion criteria were onset age lower than 18 years and a diagnosis of any idiopathic inflammatory myopathy (IIM) by attending physician. Bohan & Peter (1975) criteria categorisation was established by a scoring algorithm to define JDM and JPM based oil clinical protocol data. Results Of the 189 cases included, 178 were classified as JDM, 9 as JPM (19.8: 1) and 2 did not fit the criteria; 6.9% had features of chronic arthritis and connective tissue disease overlap. Diagnosis classification agreement occurred in 66.1%. Medial? onset age was 7 years, median follow-up duration was 3.6 years. Malignancy was described in 2 (1.1%) cases. Muscle weakness occurred in 95.8%; heliotrope rash 83.5%; Gottron plaques 83.1%; 92% had at least one abnormal muscle enzyme result. Muscle biopsy performed in 74.6% was abnormal in 91.5% and electromyogram performed in 39.2% resulted abnormal in 93.2%. Logistic regression analysis was done in 66 cases with all parameters assessed and only aldolase resulted significant, as independent variable for definite JDM (OR=5.4, 95%CI 1.2-24.4, p=0.03). Regarding treatment, 97.9% received steroids; 72% had in addition at least one: methotrexate (75.7%), hydroxychloroquine (64.7%), cyclosporine A (20.6%), IV immunoglobulin (20.6%), azathioprine (10.3%) or cyclophosphamide (9.6%). In this series 24.3% developed calcinosis and mortality rate was 4.2%. Conclusion Evaluation of predefined criteria set for a valid diagnosis indicated aldolase as the most important parameter associated with de, methotrexate combination, was the most indicated treatment.

Influence diagnostics for polyhazard models in the presence of covariates

In this paper, we present various diagnostic methods for polyhazard models. Polyhazard models are a flexible family for fitting lifetime data. Their main advantage over the single hazard models, such as the Weibull and the log-logistic models, is to include a large amount of nonmonotone hazard shapes, as bathtub and multimodal curves. Some influence methods, such as the local influence and total local influence of an individual are derived, analyzed and discussed. A discussion of the computation of the likelihood displacement as well as the normal curvature in the local influence method are presented. Finally, an example with real data is given for illustration.

General results for the beta-modified Weibull distribution

We study in detail the so-called beta-modified Weibull distribution, motivated by the wide use of the Weibull distribution in practice, and also for the fact that the generalization provides a continuous crossover towards cases with different shapes. The new distribution is important since it contains as special sub-models some widely-known distributions, such as the generalized modified Weibull, beta Weibull, exponentiated Weibull, beta exponential, modified Weibull and Weibull distributions, among several others. It also provides more flexibility to analyse complex real data. Various mathematical properties of this distribution are derived, including its moments and moment generating function. We examine the asymptotic distributions of the extreme values. Explicit expressions are also derived for the chf, mean deviations, Bonferroni and Lorenz curves, reliability and entropies. The estimation of parameters is approached by two methods: moments and maximum likelihood. We compare by simulation the performances of the estimates from these methods. We obtain the expected information matrix. Two applications are presented to illustrate the proposed distribution.

The exponentiated generalized gamma distribution with application to lifetime data

A four-parameter extension of the generalized gamma distribution capable of modelling a bathtub-shaped hazard rate function is defined and studied. The beauty and importance of this distribution lies in its ability to model monotone and non-monotone failure rate functions, which are quite common in lifetime data analysis and reliability. The new distribution has a number of well-known lifetime special sub-models, such as the exponentiated Weibull, exponentiated generalized half-normal, exponentiated gamma and generalized Rayleigh, among others. We derive two infinite sum representations for its moments. We calculate the density of the order statistics and two expansions for their moments. The method of maximum likelihood is used for estimating the model parameters and the observed information matrix is obtained. Finally, a real data set from the medical area is analysed.

Distribution of Aceria guerreronis and Neoseiulus baraki among and within coconut bunches in northeast Brazil

Aceria guerreronis Keifer (Acari: Eriophyidae) is considered a major pest of coconut in many countries in the Americas, Africa and parts of Asia. Neoseiulus baraki Athias-Henriot (Acari: Phytoseiidae) is one of the predatory mites most commonly found in association with A. guerreronis in parts of northeast Brazil. The objective of this work was to study the distribution of A. guerreronis and N. baraki among and within coconut bunches. The hypothesis was tested that A. guerreronis and N. baraki are homogenously distributed over the fruits in a bunch, independent of the fruits` age and position. Five collections of bunches, each corresponding to leaves 12-16 from apex (about 2-6 month-old), were conducted in each of three fields in northeastern Brazil, from February to October, 2007. A total of 1,986 fruits were examined. The number of mites, the percentage of fruits hosting them and the level of damage caused by A. guerreronis were evaluated. The highest density of A. guerreronis was observed on fruits of bunch 4 whereas the highest density of N. baraki was observed on bunch 5. Considering all fruits together, no significant differences were observed between densities of either A. guerreronis or N. baraki among the basal, median and apical thirds of the bunches. In younger bunches, fruits of the apical region tend to have lower densities of both mites than fruits of the basal region. This pattern, in association with a similar pattern for the percentage of fruits hosting N. baraki, suggests that the predator initially reaches the basal bunch region, from where it moves to the apical region. The results of the present study suggest that the pest population reduction in bunches older than bunch 4 could be due to (1) an effect of the predator, (2) reduction of the proportion of undamaged tissues amenable to attack, and/or (3) less favorable characteristics of the fruits to attack by A. guerreronis, as indicated by their increasing lignin content as they get older.

Meat Quality of Lambs Fed on Palm Kernel Meal, a By-product of Biodiesel Production

This study aimed to establish the optimum level of palm kernel meal in the diet of Santa Ines lambs based on the sensorial characteristics and fatty acid profile of the meat. We used 32 lambs with a starting age of 4 to 6 months and mean weight of 22 2.75 kg, kept in individual stalls. The animals were fed with Tifton-85 hay and a concentrate mixed with 0.0, 6.5, 13.0 or 19.5% of palm kernel meal based on the dry mass of the complete diet. These levels formed the treatments. Confinement lasted 80 days and on the last day the animals were fasted and slaughtered. After slaughter, carcasses were weighed and sectioned longitudinally, along the median line, into two antimeres. Half-carcasses were then sliced between the 12th and 13th ribs to collect the loin (longissimus dorsi), which was used to determine the sensorial characteristics and fatty acid profile of the meat. For sensorial evaluation, samples of meat were given to 54 judges who evaluated the tenderness, juiciness, appearance, aroma and flavor of the meat using a hedonic scale. Fatty acids were determined by gas chromatography. The addition of palm kernel meal to the diet had no effect on the sensorial characteristics of meat juiciness, appearance, aroma or flavor. However, tenderness showed a quadratic relationship with the addition of the meal to the diet. The concentration of fatty acids C12:0, C14:0 and C16:0 increased with the addition of palm kernel meal, as did the sum of medium-chain fatty acids and the atherogenicity index. Up to of 19.5% of the diet of Santa Ines lambs can be made up of palm kernel meal without causing significant changes in sensorial characteristics. However, the fatty acid profile of the meat was altered.

A Log-Linear Regression Model for the Beta-Weibull Distribution

We introduce the log-beta Weibull regression model based on the beta Weibull distribution (Famoye et al., 2005; Lee et al., 2007). We derive expansions for the moment generating function which do not depend on complicated functions. The new regression model represents a parametric family of models that includes as sub-models several widely known regression models that can be applied to censored survival data. We employ a frequentist analysis, a jackknife estimator, and a parametric bootstrap for the parameters of the proposed model. We derive the appropriate matrices for assessing local influences on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes and present some ways to assess global influences. Further, for different parameter settings, sample sizes, and censoring percentages, several simulations are performed. In addition, the empirical distribution of some modified residuals are displayed and compared with the standard normal distribution. These studies suggest that the residual analysis usually performed in normal linear regression models can be extended to a modified deviance residual in the proposed regression model applied to censored data. We define martingale and deviance residuals to evaluate the model assumptions. The extended regression model is very useful for the analysis of real data and could give more realistic fits than other special regression models.

Increased MMA concentration and body mass index are associated with spontaneous abortion in Brazilian women A pilot study

Background: The pathophysiology of spontaneous abortion is complex and may involve the interaction of genetic and environmental factors. We evaluated the predictors of spontaneous abortion in Brazilian pregnant women. The effects of age, gestational age. body mass index (BMI), cigarette smoking, alcohol ingestion, use of multivitamins and concentrations of vitamins (folate, cobalamin and vitamin 136) and vitamin-dependent metabolites were analyzed. Methods: Study population included 100 healthy women that attended pre-natal care in 2 health centers of Sao Paulo, Brazil, and in whom pregnancy outcome was known. Folate and cobalamin status was measured in blood specimens collected between 4 and 16 weeks. The genotypes for 8 gene polymorphisms were evaluated by PCR-RFLP. Results: Eighty-eight women had normal pregnancy outcome (Group 1), while 12 experienced a miscarriage after blood collection (Group 2). Increased methylmalonic acid (MMA) concentrations were found in Group 2 (median [25th-75th percentile]=274 [149-425] nmol/l) relative to Group 1 (138 [98-185]) (P<0.01). No differences between the groups were observed for serum cobalamin, serum or red cell folate, and serum total homocysteine or allele frequencies for 8 polymorphisms. In a conditional logistic regression analysis including age, gestational age, serum creatinine, MMA, cystathionine, body mass index (BMI), cigarette smoking, alcohol ingestion and use of multivitamins the risk of abortion was significantly associated with MMA (OR [95% CI] = 3.80 [1.36, 10.62] per quartile increase in MMA), BMI (OR [95% CI] = 5.49 [1.29,23.39] per quartile) and gestational age (OR [95% CI] = 0.10 [0.01, 0.77] per increase of interval in gestational age). Conclusions: Increased serum MMA and BMI concentrations are associated with spontaneous abortion in Brazilian women. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.