A semi-Markov multistate model for estimation of the mean quality-adjusted survival for non-progressive processes

We discuss the estimation of the expected value of the quality-adjusted survival, based on multistate models. We generalize an earlier work, considering the sojourn times in health states are not identically distributed, for a given vector of covariates. Approaches based on semiparametric and parametric (exponential and Weibull distributions) methodologies are considered. A simulation study is conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed estimator and the jackknife resampling method is used to estimate the variance of such estimator. An application to a real data set is also included.

Communication structure of cortical networks

Large-scale cortical networks exhibit characteristic topological properties that shape communication between brain regions and global cortical dynamics. Analysis of complex networks allows the description of connectedness, distance, clustering, and centrality that reveal different aspects of how the network's nodes communicate. Here, we focus on a novel analysis of complex walks in a series of mammalian cortical networks that model potential dynamics of information flow between individual brain regions. We introduce two new measures called absorption and driftness. Absorption is the average length of random walks between any two nodes, and takes into account all paths that may diffuse activity throughout the network. Driftness is the ratio between absorption and the corresponding shortest path length. For a given node of the network, we also define four related measurements, namely in-and out-absorption as well as in-and out-driftness, as the averages of the corresponding measures from all nodes to that node, and from that node to all nodes, respectively. We find that the cat thalamo-cortical system incorporates features of two classic network topologies, Erdos-Renyi graphs with respect to in-absorption and in-driftness, and configuration models with respect to out-absorption and out-driftness. Moreover, taken together these four measures separate the network nodes based on broad functional roles (visual, auditory, somatomotor, and frontolimbic).

TESTING STATISTICAL HYPOTHESIS ON RANDOM TREES AND APPLICATIONS TO THE PROTEIN CLASSIFICATION PROBLEM

Efficient automatic protein classification is of central importance in genomic annotation. As an independent way to check the reliability of the classification, we propose a statistical approach to test if two sets of protein domain sequences coming from two families of the Pfam database are significantly different. We model protein sequences as realizations of Variable Length Markov Chains (VLMC) and we use the context trees as a signature of each protein family. Our approach is based on a Kolmogorov-Smirnov-type goodness-of-fit test proposed by Balding et at. [Limit theorems for sequences of random trees (2008), DOI: 10.1007/s11749-008-0092-z]. The test statistic is a supremum over the space of trees of a function of the two samples; its computation grows, in principle, exponentially fast with the maximal number of nodes of the potential trees. We show how to transform this problem into a max-flow over a related graph which can be solved using a Ford-Fulkerson algorithm in polynomial time on that number. We apply the test to 10 randomly chosen protein domain families from the seed of Pfam-A database (high quality, manually curated families). The test shows that the distributions of context trees coming from different families are significantly different. We emphasize that this is a novel mathematical approach to validate the automatic clustering of sequences in any context. We also study the performance of the test via simulations on Galton-Watson related processes.

POLLING SYSTEMS WITH PARAMETER REGENERATION, THE GENERAL CASE

We consider a polling model with multiple stations, each with Poisson arrivals and a queue of infinite capacity. The service regime is exhaustive and there is Jacksonian feedback of served customers. What is new here is that when the server comes to a station it chooses the service rate and the feedback parameters at random; these remain valid during the whole stay of the server at that station. We give criteria for recurrence, transience and existence of the sth moment of the return time to the empty state for this model. This paper generalizes the model, when only two stations accept arriving jobs, which was considered in [Ann. Appl. Probab. 17 (2007) 1447-1473]. Our results are stated in terms of Lyapunov exponents for random matrices. From the recurrence criteria it can be seen that the polling model with parameter regeneration can exhibit the unusual phenomenon of null recurrence over a thick region of parameter space.

Random perturbations of stochastic processes with unbounded variable length memory

We consider binary infinite order stochastic chains perturbed by a random noise. This means that at each time step, the value assumed by the chain can be randomly and independently flipped with a small fixed probability. We show that the transition probabilities of the perturbed chain are uniformly close to the corresponding transition probabilities of the original chain. As a consequence, in the case of stochastic chains with unbounded but otherwise finite variable length memory, we show that it is possible to recover the context tree of the original chain, using a suitable version of the algorithm Context, provided that the noise is small enough.

THE VANISHING DISCOUNT APPROACH FOR THE AVERAGE CONTINUOUS CONTROL OF PIECEWISE DETERMINISTIC MARKOV PROCESSES

This work is concerned with the existence of an optimal control strategy for the long-run average continuous control problem of piecewise-deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs). In Costa and Dufour (2008), sufficient conditions were derived to ensure the existence of an optimal control by using the vanishing discount approach. These conditions were mainly expressed in terms of the relative difference of the alpha-discount value functions. The main goal of this paper is to derive tractable conditions directly related to the primitive data of the PDMP to ensure the existence of an optimal control. The present work can be seen as a continuation of the results derived in Costa and Dufour (2008). Our main assumptions are written in terms of some integro-differential inequalities related to the so-called expected growth condition, and geometric convergence of the post-jump location kernel associated to the PDMP. An example based on the capacity expansion problem is presented, illustrating the possible applications of the results developed in the paper.

On the Filtering Problem for Continuous-Time Markov Jump Linear Systems with no Observation of the Markov Chain

We consider in this paper the optimal stationary dynamic linear filtering problem for continuous-time linear systems subject to Markovian jumps in the parameters (LSMJP) and additive noise (Wiener process). It is assumed that only an output of the system is available and therefore the values of the jump parameter are not accessible. It is a well known fact that in this setting the optimal nonlinear filter is infinite dimensional, which makes the linear filtering a natural numerically, treatable choice. The goal is to design a dynamic linear filter such that the closed loop system is mean square stable and minimizes the stationary expected value of the mean square estimation error. It is shown that an explicit analytical solution to this optimal filtering problem is obtained from the stationary solution associated to a certain Riccati equation. It is also shown that the problem can be formulated using a linear matrix inequalities (LMI) approach, which can be extended to consider convex polytopic uncertainties on the parameters of the possible modes of operation of the system and on the transition rate matrix of the Markov process. As far as the authors are aware of this is the first time that this stationary filtering problem (exact and robust versions) for LSMJP with no knowledge of the Markov jump parameters is considered in the literature. Finally, we illustrate the results with an example.

Generalized Coupled Algebraic Riccati Equations for Discrete-time Markov Jump with Multiplicative Noise Systems

In this paper we consider the existence of the maximal and mean square stabilizing solutions for a set of generalized coupled algebraic Riccati equations (GCARE for short) associated to the infinite-horizon stochastic optimal control problem of discrete-time Markov jump with multiplicative noise linear systems. The weighting matrices of the state and control for the quadratic part are allowed to be indefinite. We present a sufficient condition, based only on some positive semi-definite and kernel restrictions on some matrices, under which there exists the maximal solution and a necessary and sufficient condition under which there exists the mean square stabilizing solution fir the GCARE. We also present a solution for the discounted and long run average cost problems when the performance criterion is assumed be composed by a linear combination of an indefinite quadratic part and a linear part in the state and control variables. The paper is concluded with a numerical example for pension fund with regime switching.