Risk optimization of a steel frame communications tower subject to tornado winds

The structural engineering community in Brazil faces new challenges with the recent occurrence of high intensity tornados. Satellite surveillance data shows that the area covering the south-east of Brazil, Uruguay and some of Argentina is one of the world most tornado-prone areas, second only to the infamous tornado alley in central United States. The design of structures subject to tornado winds is a typical example of decision making in the presence of uncertainty. Structural design involves finding a good balance between the competing goals of safety and economy. This paper presents a methodology to find the optimum balance between these goals in the presence of uncertainty. In this paper, reliability-based risk optimization is used to find the optimal safety coefficient that minimizes the total expected cost of a steel frame communications tower, subject to extreme storm and tornado wind loads. The technique is not new, but it is applied to a practical problem of increasing interest to Brazilian structural engineers. The problem is formulated in the partial safety factor format used in current design codes, with all additional partial factor introduced to serve as optimization variable. The expected cost of failure (or risk) is defined as the product of a. limit state exceedance probability by a limit state exceedance cost. These costs include costs of repairing, rebuilding, and paying compensation for injury and loss of life. The total expected failure cost is the sum of individual expected costs over all failure modes. The steel frame communications, tower subject of this study has become very common in Brazil due to increasing mobile phone coverage. The study shows that optimum reliability is strongly dependent on the cost (or consequences) of failure. Since failure consequences depend oil actual tower location, it turn,,; out that different optimum designs should be used in different locations. Failure consequences are also different for the different parties involved in the design, construction and operation of the tower. Hence, it is important that risk is well understood by the parties involved, so that proper contracts call be made. The investigation shows that when non-structural terms dominate design costs (e.g, in residential or office buildings) it is not too costly to over-design; this observation is in agreement with the observed practice for non-optimized structural systems. In this situation, is much easier to loose money by under-design. When by under-design. When structural material cost is a significant part of design cost (e.g. concrete dam or bridge), one is likely to lose significantmoney by over-design. In this situation, a cost-risk-benefit optimization analysis is highly recommended. Finally, the study also shows that under time-varying loads like tornados, the optimum reliability is strongly dependent on the selected design life.

Analysis of the effects of conical indentation variables on the indentation response of elastic-plastic materials through factorial design of experiment

In this work, the effects of conical indentation variables on the load-depth indentation curves were analyzed using finite element modeling and dimensional analysis. A factorial design 2(6) was used with the aim of quantifying the effects of the mechanical properties of the indented material and of the indenter geometry. Analysis was based on the input variables Y/E, R/h(max), n, theta, E, and h(max). The dimensional variables E and h(max) were used such that each value of dimensionless Y/E was obtained with two different values of E and each value of dimensionless R/h(max) was obtained with two different h(max) values. A set of dimensionless functions was defined to analyze the effect of the input variables: Pi(1) = P(1)/Eh(2), Pi(2) = h(c)/h, Pi(3) = H/Y, Pi(4) = S/Eh(max), Pi(6) = h(max)/h(f) and Pi(7) = W(P)/W(T). These six functions were found to depend only on the dimensionless variables studied (Y/E, R/h(max), n, theta). Another dimension less function, Pi(5) = beta, was not well defined for most of the dimensionless variables and the only variable that provided a significant effect on beta was theta. However, beta showed a strong dependence on the fraction of the data selected to fit the unloading curve, which means that beta is especially Susceptible to the error in the Calculation of the initial unloading slope.

Geographic Information Systems (GIS) in Assessing Dental Health

The present study investigated the distribution profile of dental caries and its association with areas of social deprivation at the individual and contextual level. The cluster sample consisted of 1,002 12-year-old schoolchildren from Piracicaba, SP, Brazil. The DMFT Index was used for dental caries and the Care Index was used to determine access to dental services. On the individual level, variables were associated with a better oral status. On the contextual level, areas were not associated with oral status. However, maps enabled determining that the central districts have better social and oral conditions than the deprived outlying districts.

Prevalence of Human T-Cell Lymphotropic Virus (HTLV-1/2) in Individuals from Public Health Centers in Mozambique

The prevalence of human T-cell lymphotropic viruses types 1 and 2 (HTLV-1/2) in Mozambique is not known. The present study examined blood samples from 208, 226, and 318 individuals from Northern, Central, and Southern Mozambique, respectively, of all socioeconomic and demographic strata attending public health centers in Mozambique for HTLV-1/2-specific antibodies. Serum samples were assessed for HIV- and HTLV-1/2-specific antibodies by using enzyme immunoassays, and infections with HTLV-1 and -2 were confirmed by using Western blot. An overall HTLV-1/2 prevalence of 2.3% (2.9% in female and 1.1% in male subjects) was observed, and the prevalence of infection increased with age. Regional variation in the prevalence of HIV and HTLV-1/2 was observed; 32.2%, 65.5%, and 44% of individuals tested HIV positive in Northern, Central, and Southern Mozambique, respectively, and 2.4%, 3.9%, and 0.9% tested HTLV-1/2 positive in the same regions. HTLV-1 infection was confirmed in these individuals. No association between HTLV-1 infection and socio-demographic variables or HIV status was detected, although the low number of HTLV-1-positive cases did not allow robust statistical analyses. The results obtained suggest different risk factors and epidemiologic correlates of HIV and HTLV-1 transmission in Mozambique. Furthermore, our results suggested that North and Central Mozambique should be considered endemic regions for HTLV-1 infection. As no cases of HTLV-2 were detected, HTLV-2 appears to have not been introduced into Mozambique.

Assessment of the potential genotoxic risk of medicinal Tamarindus indica fruit pulp extract using in vivo assays

Tamarindus indica has been used in folk medicine as an antidiabetic, a digestive aid, and a carminative, among other uses. Currently, there is no information in the toxicology literature concerning the safety of T. indica extract. We evaluated the clastogenic and/or genotoxic potential of fruit pulp extract of this plant in vivo in peripheral blood and liver cells of Wistar rats, using the comet assay, and in bone marrow cells of Swiss mice, using the micronucleus test. The extract was administered by gavage at doses of 1000, 1500 and 2000 mg/kg body weight. Peripheral blood and liver cells from Wistar rats were collected 24 h after treatment, for the comet assay. The micronucleus test was carried out in bone marrow cells from Swiss mice collected 24 h after treatment. The extract made with T. indica was devoid of clastogenic and genotoxic activities in the cells of the rodents, when administered orally at these three acute doses.

First Description of a Cluster of Acute/Subacute Paracoccidioidomycosis Cases and Its Association with a Climatic Anomaly

Background: Identifying clusters of acute paracoccidioidomycosis cases could potentially help in identifying the environmental factors that influence the incidence of this mycosis. However, unlike other endemic mycoses, there are no published reports of clusters of paracoccidioidomycosis. Methodology/Principal Findings: A retrospective cluster detection test was applied to verify if an excess of acute form (AF) paracoccidioidomycosis cases in time and/or space occurred in Botucatu, an endemic area in Sao Paulo State. The scan-test SaTScan v7.0.3 was set to find clusters for the maximum temporal period of 1 year. The temporal test indicated a significant cluster in 1985 (P<0.005). This cluster comprised 10 cases, although 2.19 were expected for this year in this area. Age and clinical presentation of these cases were typical of AF paracccidioidomycosis. The space-time test confirmed the temporal cluster in 1985 and showed the localities where the risk was higher in that year. The cluster suggests that some particularities took place in the antecedent years in those localities. Analysis of climate variables showed that soil water storage was atypically high in 1982/83 (similar to 2.11/2.5 SD above mean), and the absolute air humidity in 1984, the year preceding the cluster, was much higher than normal (similar to 1.6 SD above mean), conditions that may have favored, respectively, antecedent fungal growth in the soil and conidia liberation in 1984, the probable year of exposure. These climatic anomalies in this area was due to the 1982/83 El Nino event, the strongest in the last 50 years. Conclusions/Significance: We describe the first cluster of AF paracoccidioidomycosis, which was potentially linked to a climatic anomaly caused by the 1982/83 El Nino Southern Oscillation. This finding is important because it may help to clarify the conditions that favor Paracoccidioides brasiliensis survival and growth in the environment and that enhance human exposure, thus allowing the development of preventive measures.

Estimating cardiovascular risk in patients with type 2 diabetes: a national multicenter study in Brazil

According to Brazilian National Data Survey diabetes is the fifth cause for hospitalization and is one of the ten major causes of mortality in this country. Aims to stratify the estimated cardiovascular risk (eCVR) in a population of type 2 diabetics (T2DM) according to the Framingham prediction equations as well as to determine the association between eCVR with metabolic and clinical control of the disease. Methods From 2000 to 2001 a cross-sectional multicenter study was conducted in 13 public out-patients diabetes/endocrinology clinics from 8 Brazilian cities. The 10-year risk of developing coronary heart disease (CHD) was estimated by the prediction equations described by Wilson et al (Circulation 1998). LDL equations were preferably used; when patients missed LDL data we used total cholesterol equations instead. Results Data from 1382 patients (59.0% female) were analyzed. Median and inter-quartile range (IQ) of age and duration of diabetes were 57.4 (51-65) and 8.8 (3-13) years, respectively without differences according to the gender. Forty-two percent of these patients were overweight and 35.4% were obese (the prevalence of higher BMI and obesity in this T2DM group was significantly higher in women than in men; p < 0.001). The overall estimated eCVR in T2DM patients was 21.4 (13.5-31.3). The eCVR was high (> 20%) in 738 (53.4%), intermediate in 202 (14.6%) and low in 442 (32%) patients. Men [25.1(15.4-37.3)] showed a higher eCVR than women [18.8 (12.4-27.9) p < 0.001]. The most common risk factor was high LDL-cholesterol (80.8%), most frequently found in women than in men (p = 0.01). The median of risk factors present was three (2-4) without gender differences. Overall we observed that 60 (4.3%) of our patients had none, 154(11.1%) one, 310 (22.4%) two, 385 (27.9%) three, 300 (21.7%) four, 149 (10.5%) five and six, (2%) six risk factors. A higher eCVR was noted in overweight or obese patients (p = 0.01 for both groups). No association was found between eCVR with age or a specific type of diabetes treatment. A correlation was found between eCVR and duration of diabetes (p < 0.001), BMI (p < 0.001), creatinine (p < 0.001) and triglycerides levels (p < 0.001) but it was not found with HbA1c, fasting blood glucose and postprandial glucose. A higher eCVR was observed in patients with retinopathy (p < 0.001) and a tendency in patients with microalbuminuria (p = 0.06). Conclusion: our study showed that in this group of Brazilian T2DM the eCVR was correlated with the lipid profile and it was higher in patients with microvascular chronic complications. No correlation was found with glycemic control parameters. These data could explain the failure of intensive glycemic control programs aiming to reduce cardiovascular events observed in some studies.

Genetic Variants of Diabetes Risk and Incident Cardiovascular Events in Chronic Coronary Artery Disease

Objective: To determine whether information from genetic risk variants for diabetes is associated with cardiovascular events incidence. Methods: From the about 30 known genes associated with diabetes, we genotyped single-nucleotide polymorphisms at the 10 loci most associated with type-2 diabetes in 425 subjects from the MASS-II Study, a randomized study in patients with multi-vessel coronary artery disease. The combined genetic information was evaluated by number of risk alleles for diabetes. Performance of genetic models relative to major cardiovascular events incidence was analyzed through Kaplan-Meier curve comparison and Cox Hazard Models and the discriminatory ability of models was assessed for cardiovascular events by calculating the area under the ROC curve. Results: Genetic information was able to predict 5-year incidence of major cardiovascular events and overall-mortality in non-diabetic individuals, even after adjustment for potential confounders including fasting glycemia. Non-diabetic individuals with high genetic risk had a similar incidence of events then diabetic individuals (cumulative hazard of 33.0 versus 35.1% of diabetic subjects). The addition of combined genetic information to clinical predictors significantly improved the AUC for cardiovascular events incidence (AUC = 0.641 versus 0.610). Conclusions: Combined information of genetic variants for diabetes risk is associated to major cardiovascular events incidence, including overall mortality, in non-diabetic individuals with coronary artery disease.

Evaluating gene by sex and age interactions on cardiovascular risk factors in Brazilian families

Background: In family studies, it is important to evaluate the impact of genes and environmental factors on traits of interest. In particular, the relative influences of both genes and the environment may vary in different strata of the population of interest, such as young and old individuals, or males and females. Methods: In this paper, extensions of the variance components model are used to evaluate heterogeneity in the genetic and environmental variance components due to the effects of sex and age (the cutoff between young and old was 43 yrs). The data analyzed were from 81 Brazilian families (1,675 individuals) of the Baependi Family Heart Study. Results: The models allowing for heterogeneity of variance components by sex suggest that genetic and environmental variances are not different in males and females for diastolic blood pressure, LDL-cholesterol, and HDL-cholesterol, independent of the covariates included in the models. However, for systolic blood pressure, fasting glucose and triglycerides, the evidence for heterogeneity was dependent on the covariates in the model. For instance, in the presence of sex and age covariates, heterogeneity in the genetic variance component was suggested for fasting glucose. But, for systolic blood pressure, there was no evidence of heterogeneity in any of the two variance components. Except for the LDL-cholesterol, models allowing for heterogeneity by age provide evidence of heterogeneity in genetic variance for triglycerides and systolic and diastolic blood pressure. There was evidence of heterogeneity in environmental variance in fasting glucose and HDL-cholesterol. Conclusions: Our results suggest that heterogeneity in trait variances should not be ignored in the design and analyses of gene-finding studies involving these traits, as it may generate additional information about gene effects, and allow the investigation of more sophisticated models such as the model including sex-specific oligogenic variance components.

Decision theory applied to image quality control in radiology

Background: The present work aims at the application of the decision theory to radiological image quality control ( QC) in diagnostic routine. The main problem addressed in the framework of decision theory is to accept or reject a film lot of a radiology service. The probability of each decision of a determined set of variables was obtained from the selected films. Methods: Based on a radiology service routine a decision probability function was determined for each considered group of combination characteristics. These characteristics were related to the film quality control. These parameters were also framed in a set of 8 possibilities, resulting in 256 possible decision rules. In order to determine a general utility application function to access the decision risk, we have used a simple unique parameter called r. The payoffs chosen were: diagnostic's result (correct/incorrect), cost (high/low), and patient satisfaction (yes/no) resulting in eight possible combinations. Results: Depending on the value of r, more or less risk will occur related to the decision-making. The utility function was evaluated in order to determine the probability of a decision. The decision was made with patients or administrators' opinions from a radiology service center. Conclusion: The model is a formal quantitative approach to make a decision related to the medical imaging quality, providing an instrument to discriminate what is really necessary to accept or reject a film or a film lot. The method presented herein can help to access the risk level of an incorrect radiological diagnosis decision.

Plantar Pressures During Shod Gait in Diabetic Neuropathic Patients with and without a History of Plantar Ulceration

Background: Diabetic neuropathy leads to progressive loss of sensation, lower-limb distal muscle atrophy, autonomic impairment, and gait alterations that overload feet. This overload has been associated with plantar ulcers even with consistent daily use of shoes. We sought to investigate and compare the influence of diabetic neuropathy and plantar ulcers in the clinical history of diabetic neuropathic patients on plantar sensitivity, symptoms, and plantar pressure distribution during gait while patients wore their everyday shoes. Methods: Patients were categorized into three groups: a control group (CG; n = 15), diabetic patients with a history of neuropathic ulceration (DUG; n = 8), and diabetic patients without a history of ulceration (DG; n = 10). Plantar pressure variables were measured by Pedar System shoe insoles in five plantar regions during gait while patients wore their own shoes. Results: No statistical difference between neuropathic patients with and without a history of plantar ulcers was found in relation to symptoms, tactile sensitivity, and duration of diabetes. Diabetic patients without ulceration presented the lowest pressure-time integral under the heel (72.1 +/- 16.1 kPa x sec; P=.0456). Diabetic patients with a history of ulceration presented a higher pressure-time integral at the midfoot compared to patients in the control group (59.6 +/- 23.6 kPa x sec x 45.8 +/- 10.4 kPa x sec; P = .099), and at the lateral forefoot compared to diabetic patients without ulceration (70.9 +/- 17.7 kPa sec x 113.2 +/- 61.1 kPa x sec, P = .0193). Diabetic patients with ulceration also presented the lowest weight load under the hallux (0.06 +/- 0.02%, P = .0042). Conclusions: Although presenting a larger midfoot area, diabetic neuropathic patients presented greater pressure-time integrals and relative loads over this region. Diabetic patients with ulceration presented an altered dynamic plantar pressure pattern characterized by overload even when wearing daily shoes. Overload associated with a clinical history of plantar ulcers indicates future appearance of plantar ulcers. (J Am Podiatr Med Assoc 99(4): 285-294, 2009)

Cost risk benefit analysis to support chemoprophylaxis policy for travellers to malaria endemic countries

Background: In a number of malaria endemic regions, tourists and travellers face a declining risk of travel associated malaria, in part due to successful malaria control. Many millions of visitors to these regions are recommended, via national and international policy, to use chemoprophylaxis which has a well recognized morbidity profile. To evaluate whether current malaria chemo-prophylactic policy for travellers is cost effective when adjusted for endemic transmission risk and duration of exposure. a framework, based on partial cost-benefit analysis was used Methods: Using a three component model combining a probability component, a cost component and a malaria risk component, the study estimated health costs avoided through use of chemoprophylaxis and costs of disease prevention (including adverse events and pre-travel advice for visits to five popular high and low malaria endemic regions) and malaria transmission risk using imported malaria cases and numbers of travellers to malarious countries. By calculating the minimal threshold malaria risk below which the economic costs of chemoprophylaxis are greater than the avoided health costs we were able to identify the point at which chemoprophylaxis would be economically rational. Results: The threshold incidence at which malaria chemoprophylaxis policy becomes cost effective for UK travellers is an accumulated risk of 1.13% assuming a given set of cost parameters. The period a travellers need to remain exposed to achieve this accumulated risk varied from 30 to more than 365 days, depending on the regions intensity of malaria transmission. Conclusions: The cost-benefit analysis identified that chemoprophylaxis use was not a cost-effective policy for travellers to Thailand or the Amazon region of Brazil, but was cost-effective for travel to West Africa and for those staying longer than 45 days in India and Indonesia.

Modeling the risk of malaria for travelers to areas with stable malaria transmission

Background: Malaria is an important threat to travelers visiting endemic regions. The risk of acquiring malaria is complex and a number of factors including transmission intensity, duration of exposure, season of the year and use of chemoprophylaxis have to be taken into account estimating risk. Materials and methods: A mathematical model was developed to estimate the risk of non-immune individual acquiring falciparum malaria when traveling to the Amazon region of Brazil. The risk of malaria infection to travelers was calculated as a function of duration of exposure and season of arrival. Results: The results suggest significant variation of risk for non-immune travelers depending on arrival season, duration of the visit and transmission intensity. The calculated risk for visitors staying longer than 4 months during peak transmission was 0.5% per visit. Conclusions: Risk estimates based on mathematical modeling based on accurate data can be a valuable tool in assessing risk/benefits and cost/benefits when deciding on the value of interventions for travelers to malaria endemic regions.

The International Collaboration on Air Pollution and Pregnancy Outcomes: Initial Results

BACKGROUND: The findings of prior studies of air pollution effects on adverse birth outcomes are difficult to synthesize because of differences in study design. OBJECTIVES: The International Collaboration on Air Pollution and Pregnancy Outcomes was formed to understand how differences in research methods contribute to variations in findings. We initiated a feasibility study to a) assess the ability of geographically diverse research groups to analyze their data sets using a common protocol and b) perform location-specific analyses of air pollution effects on birth weight using a standardized statistical approach. METHODS: Fourteen research groups from nine countries participated. We developed a protocol to estimate odds ratios (ORs) for the association between particulate matter <= 10 mu m in aerodynamic diameter (PM(10)) and low birth weight (LBW) among term births, adjusted first for socioeconomic status (SES) and second for additional location-specific variables. RESULTS: Among locations with data for the PM(10) analysis, ORs estimating the relative risk of term LBW associated with a 10-mu g/m(3) increase in average PM(10) concentration during pregnancy, adjusted for SES, ranged from 0.63 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.30-1.35] for the Netherlands to 1.15 (95% CI, 0.61-2.18) for Vancouver, with six research groups reporting statistically significant adverse associations. We found evidence of statistically significant heterogeneity in estimated effects among locations. CONCLUSIONS: Variability in PM(10)-LBW relationships among study locations remained despite use of a common statistical approach. A more detailed meta-analysis and use of more complex protocols for future analysis may uncover reasons for heterogeneity across locations. However, our findings confirm the potential for a diverse group of researchers to analyze their data in a standardized way to improve understanding of air pollution effects on birth outcomes.

Incidence and risk factors of aplastic anemia in Latin American countries: the LATIN case-control study

Background Associations between aplastic anemia and numerous drugs, pesticides and chemicals have been reported. However, at least 50% of the etiology of aplastic anemia remains unexplained. Design and Methods This was a case-control, multicenter, multinational study, designed to identify risk factors for agranulocytosis and aplastic anemia. The cases were patients with diagnosis of aplastic anemia confirmed through biopsy or bone marrow aspiration, selected through an active search of clinical laboratories, hematology clinics and medical records. The controls did not have either aplastic anemia or chronic diseases. A total of 224 patients with aplastic anemia were included in the study, each case was paired with four controls, according to sex, age group, and hospital where the case was first seen. Information was collected on demographic data, medical history, laboratory tests, medications, and other potential risk factors prior to diagnosis. Results The incidence of aplastic anemia was 1.6 cases per million per year. Higher rates of benzene exposure (>= 30 exposures per year) were associated with a greater risk of aplastic anemia (odds ratio, OR: 4.2; 95% confidence interval, CI: 1.82-9.82). Individuals exposed to chloramphenicol in the previous year had an adjusted OR for aplastic anemia of 8.7 (CI: 0.87-87.93) and those exposed to azithromycin had an adjusted OR of 11.02 (CI 1.14-108.02). Conclusions The incidence of aplastic anemia in Latin America countries is low. Although the research study centers had a high coverage of health services, the underreporting of cases of aplastic anemia in selected regions can be discussed. Frequent exposure to benzene-based products increases the risk for aplastic anemia. Few associations with specific drugs were found, and it is likely that some of these were due to chance alone.