POLLING SYSTEMS WITH PARAMETER REGENERATION, THE GENERAL CASE

We consider a polling model with multiple stations, each with Poisson arrivals and a queue of infinite capacity. The service regime is exhaustive and there is Jacksonian feedback of served customers. What is new here is that when the server comes to a station it chooses the service rate and the feedback parameters at random; these remain valid during the whole stay of the server at that station. We give criteria for recurrence, transience and existence of the sth moment of the return time to the empty state for this model. This paper generalizes the model, when only two stations accept arriving jobs, which was considered in [Ann. Appl. Probab. 17 (2007) 1447-1473]. Our results are stated in terms of Lyapunov exponents for random matrices. From the recurrence criteria it can be seen that the polling model with parameter regeneration can exhibit the unusual phenomenon of null recurrence over a thick region of parameter space.

Random perturbations of stochastic processes with unbounded variable length memory

We consider binary infinite order stochastic chains perturbed by a random noise. This means that at each time step, the value assumed by the chain can be randomly and independently flipped with a small fixed probability. We show that the transition probabilities of the perturbed chain are uniformly close to the corresponding transition probabilities of the original chain. As a consequence, in the case of stochastic chains with unbounded but otherwise finite variable length memory, we show that it is possible to recover the context tree of the original chain, using a suitable version of the algorithm Context, provided that the noise is small enough.

A note on the likelihood and moments of the skew-normal distribution

In this paper an alternative approach to the one in Henze (1986) is proposed for deriving the odd moments of the skew-normal distribution considered in Azzalini (1985). The approach is based on a Pascal type triangle, which seems to greatly simplify moments computation. Moreover, it is shown that the likelihood equation for estimating the asymmetry parameter in such model is generated as orthogonal functions to the sample vector. As a consequence, conditions for a unique solution of the likelihood equation are established, which seem to hold in more general setting.

Hitting and returning to rare events for all alpha-mixing processes

We prove that for any a-mixing stationary process the hitting time of any n-string A(n) converges, when suitably normalized, to an exponential law. We identify the normalization constant lambda(A(n)). A similar statement holds also for the return time. To establish this result we prove two other results of independent interest. First, we show a relation between the rescaled hitting time and the rescaled return time, generalizing a theorem of Haydn, Lacroix and Vaienti. Second, we show that for positive entropy systems, the probability of observing any n-string in n consecutive observations goes to zero as n goes to infinity. (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Late Entry into HIV Care: Estimated Impact on AIDS Mortality Rates in Brazil, 2003-2006

Background: Worldwide, a high proportion of HIV-infected individuals enter into HIV care late. Here, our objective was to estimate the impact that late entry into HIV care has had on AIDS mortality rates in Brazil. Methodology/Principal Findings: We analyzed data from information systems regarding HIV-infected adults who sought treatment at public health care facilities in Brazil from 2003 to 2006. We initially estimated the prevalence of late entry into HIV care, as well as the probability of death in the first 12 months, the percentage of the risk of death attributable to late entry, and the number of avoidable deaths. We subsequently adjusted the annual AIDS mortality rate by excluding such deaths. Of the 115,369 patients evaluated, 50,358 (43.6%) had entered HIV care late, and 18,002 died in the first 12 months, representing a 16.5% probability of death in the first 12 months (95% CI: 16.3-16.7). By comparing patients who entered HIV care late with those who gained timely access, we found that the risk ratio for death was 49.5 (95% CI: 45.1-54.2). The percentage of the risk of death attributable to late entry was 95.5%, translating to 17,189 potentially avoidable deaths. Averting those deaths would have lowered the 2003-2006 AIDS mortality rate by 39.5%. Including asymptomatic patients with CD4(+) T cell counts >200 and <= 350 cells/mm(3) in the group who entered HIV care late increased this proportion by 1.8%. Conclusions/Significance: In Brazil, antiretroviral drugs reduced AIDS mortality by 43%. Timely entry would reduce that rate by a similar proportion, as well as resulting in a 45.2% increase in the effectiveness of the program for HIV care. The World Health Organization recommendation that asymptomatic patients with CD4(+) T cell counts <= 350 cells/mm(3) be treated would not have a significant impact on this scenario.

Beta-2 adrenergic receptor gene polymorphisms Gln27Glu, Arg16Gly in patients with heart failure

Background -: Beta-2 adrenergic receptor gene polymorphisms Gln27Glu, Arg16Gly and Thr164Ile were suggested to have an effect in heart failure. We evaluated these polymorphisms relative to clinical characteristics and prognosis of alarge cohort of patients with heart failure of different etiologies. Methods -: We studied 501 patients with heart failure of different etiologies. Mean age was 58 years (standard deviation 14.4 years), 298 (60%) were men. Polymorphisms were identified by polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism. Results -: During the mean follow-up of 12.6 months (standard deviation 10.3 months), 188 (38%) patients died. Distribution of genotypes of polymorphism Arg16Gly was different relative to body mass index (chi(2) = 9.797; p = 0.04). Overall the probability of survival was not significantly predicted by genotypes of Gln27Glu, Arg16Gly, or Thr164Ile. Allele and haplotype analysis also did not disclose any significant difference regarding mortality. Exploratory analysis through classification trees pointed towards a potential association between the Gln27Glu polymorphism and mortality in older individuals. Conclusion -: In this study sample, we were not able to demonstrate an overall influence of polymorphisms Gln27Glu and Arg16Gly of beta-2 receptor gene on prognosis. Nevertheless, Gln27Glu polymorphism may have a potential predictive value in older individuals.

Can we make a Bohmian electron reach the speed of light, at least for one instant?

In Bohmian mechanics, a version of quantum mechanics that ascribes world lines to electrons, we can meaningfully ask about an electron's instantaneous speed relative to a given inertial frame. Interestingly, according to the relativistic version of Bohmian mechanics using the Dirac equation, a massive particle's speed is less than or equal to the speed of light, but not necessarily less. That is, there are situations in which the particle actually reaches the speed of light-a very nonclassical behavior. That leads us to the question of whether such situations can be arranged experimentally. We prove a theorem, Theorem 5, implying that for generic initial wave functions the probability that the particle ever reaches the speed of light, even if at only one point in time, is zero. We conclude that the answer to the question is no. Since a trajectory reaches the speed of light whenever the quantum probability current (psi) over bar gamma(mu)psi is a lightlike 4-vector, our analysis concerns the current vector field of a generic wave function and may thus be of interest also independently of Bohmian mechanics. The fact that the current is never spacelike has been used to argue against the possibility of faster-than-light tunneling through a barrier, a somewhat similar question. Theorem 5, as well as a more general version provided by Theorem 6, are also interesting in their own right. They concern a certain property of a function psi : R(4) -> C(4) that is crucial to the question of reaching the speed of light, namely being transverse to a certain submanifold of C(4) along a given compact subset of space-time. While it follows from the known transversality theorem of differential topology that this property is generic among smooth functions psi : R(4) -> C(4), Theorem 5 asserts that it is also generic among smooth solutions of the Dirac equation. (C) 2010 American Institute of Physics. [doi:10.1063/1.3520529]

LIMIT THEOREMS FOR A GENERAL STOCHASTIC RUMOUR MODEL

We study a general stochastic rumour model in which an ignorant individual has a certain probability of becoming a stifler immediately upon hearing the rumour. We refer to this special kind of stifler as an uninterested individual. Our model also includes distinct rates for meetings between two spreaders in which both become stiflers or only one does, so that particular cases are the classical Daley-Kendall and Maki-Thompson models. We prove a Law of Large Numbers and a Central Limit Theorem for the proportions of those who ultimately remain ignorant and those who have heard the rumour but become uninterested in it.

LATENT RANK CHANGE DETECTION FOR ANALYSIS OF SPLICE-JUNCTION MICROARRAYS WITH NONLINEAR EFFECTS

Alternative splicing of gene transcripts greatly expands the functional capacity of the genome, and certain splice isoforms may indicate specific disease states such as cancer. Splice junction microarrays interrogate thousands of splice junctions, but data analysis is difficult and error prone because of the increased complexity compared to differential gene expression analysis. We present Rank Change Detection (RCD) as a method to identify differential splicing events based upon a straightforward probabilistic model comparing the over-or underrepresentation of two or more competing isoforms. RCD has advantages over commonly used methods because it is robust to false positive errors due to nonlinear trends in microarray measurements. Further, RCD does not depend on prior knowledge of splice isoforms, yet it takes advantage of the inherent structure of mutually exclusive junctions, and it is conceptually generalizable to other types of splicing arrays or RNA-Seq. RCD specifically identifies the biologically important cases when a splice junction becomes more or less prevalent compared to other mutually exclusive junctions. The example data is from different cell lines of glioblastoma tumors assayed with Agilent microarrays.

Bayesian updating rules in continuous opinion dynamics models

Here, I investigate the use of Bayesian updating rules applied to modeling how social agents change their minds in the case of continuous opinion models. Given another agent statement about the continuous value of a variable, we will see that interesting dynamics emerge when an agent assigns a likelihood to that value that is a mixture of a Gaussian and a uniform distribution. This represents the idea that the other agent might have no idea about what is being talked about. The effect of updating only the first moments of the distribution will be studied, and we will see that this generates results similar to those of the bounded confidence models. On also updating the second moment, several different opinions always survive in the long run, as agents become more stubborn with time. However, depending on the probability of error and initial uncertainty, those opinions might be clustered around a central value.

Influence of anabolic steroid treatment associated to physical exercise in the ultrasonic vocalization of rats

Unlike humans, who communicate in frequency bands between 250 Hz and 6 kHz, rats can communicate in frequencies above 18 kHz. Their vocalization types depend on the context and are normally associated to subjective or emotional states. It was reported significant vocal changes due to administration of replacement testosterone in a trained tenor singer with hypogonadism. Speech-Language Pathology clinical practices are being sought by singers who sporadically use anabolic steroids associated with physical exercise. They report difficulties in reaching and keeping high notes, ""breakage"" in the passage of musical notes and post singing vocal fatigue. Those abnormalities could be raised by the association of anabolic steroids and physical exercise. Thus, in order to verify if this association could promote vocal changes, maximum, minimum and fundamental frequencies and call duration in rats treated with anabolic steroids and physically trained (10 weeks duration) were evaluated. The vocalizations were obtained by handling the animals. At the end of that period, rats treated and trained showed significant decrease in call duration, but not in other parameters. The decrease in call duration could be associated to functional alterations in the vocal folds of treated and trained animals due to a synergism between anabolic steroids and physical training. (C) 2010 Acoustical Society of America. [DOI: 10.1121/1.3488350]

Brazilian registered nurses` perceptions and attitudes towards adverse events in nursing care: a phenomenological study

Aim To describe the perceptions and attitudes of registered nurses (RNs) towards adverse events (AEs) in nursing care. Background The professionals` subjective perspectives should be taken into account for the prevention of AEs in care settings. Method Schutz`s social phenomenology was developed. Interviews were conducted with nine Intensive Care Unit RNs. Results The following five descriptive categories emerged: (1) the occurrence of AEs is inherent to the human condition but provokes a feeling of insecurity, (2) the occurrence of AEs indicates the existence of failures in health care systematization, (3) the professionals` attitudes towards AEs should be permeated by ethical principles; (4) the priority regarding AEs should be the mitigation of harm to patients, and (5) decisions regarding the communication of AEs were determined by the severity of the error. Conclusions The various subjective perspectives related to the occurrence of AEs requires a health care systematization with a focus on prevention. Ethical behaviour is essential for the patients` safety. Implications for nursing management Activities aimed at the prevention of AEs should be integrated jointly with both the professionals and the health care institution. A culture of safety, not punishment, and improvement in the quality of care provided to patients should be priorities.

Anthropometric characteristics and motor skills in talent selection and development in indoor soccer

Kick performance, anthropometric characteristics, slalom, and linear running were assessed in 49 (24 elite, 25 nonelite) postpubertal indoor soccer players in order to (a) verify whether anthropometric characteristics and physical and technical capacities can distinguish players of different competitive levels, (b) compare the kicking kinematics of these groups, with and without a defined target, and (c) compare results on the assessments and coaches` subjective rankings of the players. Thigh circumference and specific technical capacities differentiated the players by level of play; cluster analysis correctly classified 77.5% of the players. The correlation between players` standardized measures and the coaches` rankings was 0.29. Anthropometric characteristics and physical capacities do not necessarily differentiate players at post-pubertal stages and should not be overvalued during early development. Considering the coaches` rankings, performance measures outside the specific game conditions may not be useful in identification of talented players.

Adverse drug events in an intensive care unit of a university hospital

Purpose Adverse drug events (ADEs) are harmful and occur with alarming frequency in critically ill patients. Complex pharmacotherapy with multiple medications increases the probability of a drug interaction (DI) and ADEs in patients in intensive care units (ICUs). The objective of the study is to determine the frequency of ADEs among patients in the ICU of a university hospital and the drugs implicated. Also, factors associated with ADEs are investigated. Methods This cross-sectional study investigated 299 medical records of patients hospitalized for 5 or more days in an ICU. ADEs were identified through intensive monitoring adopted in hospital pharmacovigilance and also ADE triggers. Adverse drug reactions (ADR) causality was classified using the Naranjo algorithm. Data were analyzed through descriptive analysis, and through univariate and multiple logistic regression. Results The most frequent ADEs were ADRs type A, of possible causality and moderate severity. The most frequent ADR was drug-induced acute kidney injury. Patients with ADEs related to DIs corresponded to 7% of the sample. The multiple logistic regression showed that length of hospitalization (OR = 1.06) and administration of cardiovascular drugs (OR = 2.2) were associated with the occurrence of ADEs. Conclusion Adverse drug reactions of clinical significance were the most frequent ADEs in the ICU studied, which reduces patient safety. The number of ADEs related to drug interactions was small, suggesting that clinical manifestations of drug interactions that harm patients are not frequent in ICUs.

Modeling associations between genetic markers using Bayesian networks

Motivation: Understanding the patterns of association between polymorphisms at different loci in a population ( linkage disequilibrium, LD) is of fundamental importance in various genetic studies. Many coefficients were proposed for measuring the degree of LD, but they provide only a static view of the current LD structure. Generative models (GMs) were proposed to go beyond these measures, giving not only a description of the actual LD structure but also a tool to help understanding the process that generated such structure. GMs based in coalescent theory have been the most appealing because they link LD to evolutionary factors. Nevertheless, the inference and parameter estimation of such models is still computationally challenging. Results: We present a more practical method to build GM that describe LD. The method is based on learning weighted Bayesian network structures from haplotype data, extracting equivalence structure classes and using them to model LD. The results obtained in public data from the HapMap database showed that the method is a promising tool for modeling LD. The associations represented by the learned models are correlated with the traditional measure of LD D`. The method was able to represent LD blocks found by standard tools. The granularity of the association blocks and the readability of the models can be controlled in the method. The results suggest that the causality information gained by our method can be useful to tell about the conservability of the genetic markers and to guide the selection of subset of representative markers.