Double generalized linear model for tissue culture proportion data: a Bayesian perspective

Joint generalized linear models and double generalized linear models (DGLMs) were designed to model outcomes for which the variability can be explained using factors and/or covariates. When such factors operate, the usual normal regression models, which inherently exhibit constant variance, will under-represent variation in the data and hence may lead to erroneous inferences. For count and proportion data, such noise factors can generate a so-called overdispersion effect, and the use of binomial and Poisson models underestimates the variability and, consequently, incorrectly indicate significant effects. In this manuscript, we propose a DGLM from a Bayesian perspective, focusing on the case of proportion data, where the overdispersion can be modeled using a random effect that depends on some noise factors. The posterior joint density function was sampled using Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithms, allowing inferences over the model parameters. An application to a data set on apple tissue culture is presented, for which it is shown that the Bayesian approach is quite feasible, even when limited prior information is available, thereby generating valuable insight for the researcher about its experimental results.

An estimate of biometric parameters in eucalyptus clone plantations in Southern Bahia: an application of the airborne laser scanning (ALS) technology

The application of airborne laser scanning (ALS) technologies in forest inventories has shown great potential to improve the efficiency of forest planning activities. Precise estimates, fast assessment and relatively low complexity can explain the good results in terms of efficiency. The evolution of GPS and inertial measurement technologies, as well as the observed lower assessment costs when these technologies are applied to large scale studies, can explain the increasing dissemination of ALS technologies. The observed good quality of results can be expressed by estimates of volumes and basal area with estimated error below the level of 8.4%, depending on the size of sampled area, the quantity of laser pulses per square meter and the number of control plots. This paper analyzes the potential of an ALS assessment to produce certain forest inventory statistics in plantations of cloned Eucalyptus spp with precision equal of superior to conventional methods. The statistics of interest in this case were: volume, basal area, mean height and dominant trees mean height. The ALS flight for data assessment covered two strips of approximately 2 by 20 Km, in which clouds of points were sampled in circular plots with a radius of 13 m. Plots were sampled in different parts of the strips to cover different stand ages. The clouds of points generated by the ALS assessment: overall height mean, standard error, five percentiles (height under which we can find 10%, 30%, 50%,70% and 90% of the ALS points above ground level in the cloud), and density of points above ground level in each percentile were calculated. The ALS statistics were used in regression models to estimate mean diameter, mean height, mean height of dominant trees, basal area and volume. Conventional forest inventory sample plots provided real data. For volume, an exploratory assessment involving different combinations of ALS statistics allowed for the definition of the most promising relationships and fitting tests based on well known forest biometric models. The models based on ALS statistics that produced the best results involved: the 30% percentile to estimate mean diameter (R(2)=0,88 and MQE%=0,0004); the 10% and 90% percentiles to estimate mean height (R(2)=0,94 and MQE%=0,0003); the 90% percentile to estimate dominant height (R(2)=0,96 and MQE%=0,0003); the 10% percentile and mean height of ALS points to estimate basal area (R(2)=0,92 and MQE%=0,0016); and, to estimate volume, age and the 30% and 90% percentiles (R(2)=0,95 MQE%=0,002). Among the tested forest biometric models, the best fits were provided by the modified Schumacher using age and the 90% percentile, modified Clutter using age, mean height of ALS points and the 70% percentile, and modified Buckman using age, mean height of ALS points and the 10% percentile.

Environmental Exposure to Methylmercury is Associated with a Decrease in Nitric Oxide Production

Some studies have recently suggested that mercury (Hg)-exposed populations face increased risks of cardiovascular diseases, and experimental data indicate that such risks might be due to reductions in nitric oxide bioavailability. However, no previous study has examined whether Hg exposure affects plasma nitrite concentrations in humans as an indication of nitric oxide production. Here, we investigated whether there is an association between circulating nitrite and Hg concentrations in whole blood, plasma and hair from an exposed methylmercury (MeHg) population. Hair and blood samples were collected from 238 persons exposed to MeHg from fish consumption. Hg concentrations in plasma (PHg), whole blood (BHg) and hair Hg (HHg) were determined by inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry. Mean BHg content was 49.8 +/- 35.2 mu g/l, mean PHg was 7.8 +/- 6.9 mu g/l and HHg 14.6 +/- 10.6 mu g/g. Mean plasma nitrite concentration was 253.2 +/- 105.5 nM. No association was found between plasma nitrite concentration and BHg or HHg concentrations in a univariate model. However, multiple regression models adjusted for gender, age and fish consumption showed a significant association between plasma nitrite and plasma Hg concentration (beta = -0.1, p < 0.001). Our findings constitute preliminary clinical evidence that exposure to MeHg may cause inhibitory effects on the production of endothelial nitric oxide.

Mercury exposure and oxidative stress in communities of the Brazilian Amazon

This study was designed to assess possible associations between biomarkers of mercury (Hg) exposure and oxidative stress in fish-eating Amazonian communities. Clinical samples were obtained from riparians living in the Brazilian Amazon. Biomarkers of oxidative stress (glutathione - GSH, glutathione peroxidase - GSH-Px, catalase - CAT, activity and reactivation index of delta-aminolevulinate dehydratase - ALA-D (R%) were determined in blood. Total Hg was measured in whole blood (B-Hg), plasma (P-Hg) and hair (H-Hg). Association between biomarkers of Hg exposure and oxidative stress were examined using multiple regression models, including age, gender, alcohol consumption, smoking status, fish consumption and then stratified for gender. Significant inverse relations were observed between GSH-Px, GSH, CAT, ALA-D activity and B-Hg or H-Hg (p<0.05). ALA-D reactivation index was positively related to B-Hg (p<0.0001). P-Hg was directly related to ALA-D reactivation index and inversely associated with GSH-Px, GSH, and ALA-D activity (p<0.05). When stratified for gender, women showed significant inverse associations between all biomarkers of Hg exposure and CAT (p<0.05) or GSH (p<0.05), while for men only P-Hg showed a significant inverse relation with GSH (p<0.001). Our results clearly demonstrated an association between Hg exposure and oxidative stress. Moreover, for B-Hg, P-Hg and H-Hg gender differences were present. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mercury Exposure Increases Circulating Net Matrix Metalloproteinase (MMP)-2 and MMP-9 Activities

Mercury (Hg) exposure causes health problems that may result from increased oxidative stress and matrix metalloproteinase (MMP) levels. We investigated whether there is an association between the circulating levels of MMP-2, MMP-9, their endogenous inhibitors (the tissue inhibitors of metalloproteinases; TIMPs) and the circulating Hg levels in 159 subjects environmentally exposed to Hg. Blood and plasma Hg were determined by inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). MMP and TIMP concentrations were measured in plasma samples by gelatin zymography and ELISA respectively. Thiobarbituric acid-reactive species (TBARS) were measured in plasma to assess oxidative stress. Selenium (Se) levels were determined by ICP-MS because it is an antioxidant. The relations between bioindicators of Hg and the metalloproteinases levels were examined using multivariate regression models. While we found no relation between blood or plasma Hg and MMP-9, plasma Hg levels were negatively associated with TIMP-1 and TIMP-2 levels, and thereby with increasing MMP-9/TIMP-1 and MMP-2/TIMP-2 ratios, thus indicating a positive association between plasma Hg and circulating net MMP-9 and MMP-2 activities. These findings provide a new insight into the possible biological mechanisms of Hg toxicity, particularly in cardiovascular diseases.

Relation of Aortic Valve Calcium Detected by Cardiac Computed Tomography to All-Cause Mortality

Aortic valve calcium (AVC) can be quantified on the same computed tomographic scan as coronary artery calcium (CAC). Although CAC is an established predictor of cardiovascular events, limited evidence is available for an independent predictive value for AVC. We studied a cohort of 8,401 asymptomatic subjects (mean age 53 10 years, 69% men), who were free of known coronary heart disease and were undergoing electron beam computed tomography for assessment of subclinical atherosclerosis. The patients were followed for a median of 5 years (range 1 to 7) for the occurrence of mortality from any cause. Multivariate Cox regression models were developed to predict all-cause mortality according to the presence of AVC. A total of 517 patients (6%) had AVC on electron beam computed tomography. During follow-up, 124 patients died (1.5%), for an overall survival rate of 96.1% and 98.7% for those with and without AVC, respectively (hazard ratio 3.39, 95% confidence interval 2.09 to 5.49). After adjustment for age, gender, hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes mellitus, smoking, and a family history of premature coronary heart disease, AVC remained a significant predictor of mortality (hazard ratio 1.82, 95% confidence interval 1.11 to 2.98). Likelihood ratio chi-square statistics demonstrated that the addition of AVC contributed significantly to the prediction of mortality in a model adjusted for traditional risk factors (chi-square = 5.03, p = 0.03) as well as traditional risk factors plus the presence of CAC (chi-square = 3.58, p = 0.05). In conclusion, AVC was associated with increased all-cause mortality, independent of the traditional risk factors and the presence of CAC. (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier Inc. (Am J Cardiol 2010;106:1787-1791)

The prevalence of erectile dysfunction among Brazilian men screened for prostate cancer

OBJECTIVE To determine the prevalence of erectile dysfunction (ED) in a large cohort of Brazilian men who were screened for prostate cancer, and to determine risk factors in this population, as there are large cultural differences among countries in reporting the frequency of ED, and it is likely that the prevalence of ED among men screened for prostate cancer cannot be generally applied across countries. SUBJECTS AND METHODS The analysis focused on the baseline characteristics of 1008 consecutive South American men from Brazil with no known prostate disease who had routine screening for prostate cancer by urologists. The variables analysed were patient age, urinary symptoms, patient health-related quality of life (HRQL), prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels, prostate volume and erectile function. To assess lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) and HRQL, we used the American Urological Association symptom score and its appended eighth question, respectively. Benign prostatic hyperplasia was defined as a prostate volume of > 30 g. Sexual function was assessed using the five-item version of the International Index of Erectile Function questionnaire. Thus, ED was considered to absent for scores of 22-25, mild for 17-21, mild to moderate for 12-16, moderate for 8-11, or severe for 5-7. Obesity was defined by calculating the body mass index (BMI), and categorized as underweight (< 18.5 kg/m

Cessation of alcohol drinking, tobacco smoking and the reversal of head and neck cancer risk

Background Quitting tobacco or alcohol use has been reported to reduce the head and neck cancer risk in previous studies. However, it is unclear how many years must pass following cessation of these habits before the risk is reduced, and whether the risk ultimately declines to the level of never smokers or never drinkers. Methods We pooled individual-level data from case-control studies in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology Consortium. Data were available from 13 studies on drinking cessation (9167 cases and 12 593 controls), and from 17 studies on smoking cessation (12 040 cases and 16 884 controls). We estimated the effect of quitting smoking and drinking on the risk of head and neck cancer and its subsites, by calculating odds ratios (ORs) using logistic regression models. Results Quitting tobacco smoking for 1-4 years resulted in a head and neck cancer risk reduction [OR 0.70, confidence interval (CI) 0.61-0.81 compared with current smoking], with the risk reduction due to smoking cessation after >= 20 years (OR 0.23, CI 0.18-0.31), reaching the level of never smokers. For alcohol use, a beneficial effect on the risk of head and neck cancer was only observed after >= 20 years of quitting (OR 0.60, CI 0.40-0.89 compared with current drinking), reaching the level of never drinkers. Conclusions Our results support that cessation of tobacco smoking and cessation of alcohol drinking protect against the development of head and neck cancer.

Effect of Disease Severity and Optic Disc Size on Diagnostic Accuracy of RTVue Spectral Domain Optical Coherence Tomograph in Glaucoma

PURPOSE. To evaluate the effect of disease severity and optic disc size on the diagnostic accuracies of optic nerve head (ONH), retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL), and macular parameters with RTVue (Optovue, Fremont, CA) spectral domain optical coherence tomography (SDOCT) in glaucoma. METHODS. 110 eyes of 62 normal subjects and 193 eyes of 136 glaucoma patients from the Diagnostic Innovations in Glaucoma Study underwent ONH, RNFL, and macular imaging with RTVue. Severity of glaucoma was based on visual field index (VFI) values from standard automated perimetry. Optic disc size was based on disc area measurement using the Heidelberg Retina Tomograph II (Heidelberg Engineering, Dossenheim, Germany). Influence of disease severity and disc size on the diagnostic accuracy of RTVue was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and logistic regression models. RESULTS. Areas under ROC curve (AUC) of all scanning areas increased (P < 0.05) as disease severity increased. For a VFI value of 99%, indicating early damage, AUCs for rim area, average RNLI thickness, and ganglion cell complex-root mean square were 0.693, 0.799, and 0.779, respectively. For a VFI of 70%, indicating severe damage, corresponding AUCs were 0.828, 0.985, and 0.992, respectively. Optic disc size did not influence the AUCs of any of the SDOCT scanning protocols of RTVue (P > 0.05). Sensitivity of the rim area increased and specificity decreased in large optic discs. CONCLUSIONS. Diagnostic accuracies of RTVue scanning protocols for glaucoma were significantly influenced by disease severity. Sensitivity of the rim area increased in large optic discs at the expense of specificity. (Invest Ophthalmol Vis Sci. 2011;92:1290-1296) DOI:10.1167/iovs.10-5516

Implications of prevalent and incident diabetes mellitus on left ventricular geometry and function in the ageing heart: The MONICA/KORA Augsburg cohort study

Background and Aim: It is unclear to what extent diabetes modulates the ageing-related adaptations of cardiac geometry and function. Methods and Results: We examined 1005 adults, aged 25-74 years, from a population-based survey at baseline in 1994/5 and at follow-up in 2004/5. We compared persistently non-diabetic individuals (ND; no diabetes at baseline and at follow-up, n = 833) with incident (ID; non-diabetic at baseline and diabetic at follow-up, n = 36) and with prevalent diabetics (PD; diabetes at baseline and follow-up examination, n = 21). Left ventricular (LV) geometry and function were evaluated by echocardiography. Statistical analyses were performed with multivariate linear regression models. Over ten years the PD group displayed a significantly stronger relative increase of LV mass (+9.34% vs. +23.7%) that was mediated by a more pronounced increase of LV end-diastolic diameter (+0% vs. +6.95%) compared to the ND group. In parallel, LA diameter increased (+4.50% vs. +12.7%), whereas ejection fraction decreased (+3.02% vs. -4.92%) more significantly in the PD group. Moreover, at the follow-up examination the PD and ID groups showed a significantly worse diastolic function, indicated by a higher E/EM ratio compared with the ND group (11.6 and 11.8 vs. 9.79, respectively). Conclusions: Long-standing diabetes was associated with an acceleration of age-related changes of left ventricular geometry accumulating in an eccentric remodelling of the left ventricle. Likewise, echocardiographic measures of systolic and diastolic ventricular function deteriorated more rapidly in individuals with diabetes. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Obstetric Outcome in Pregnant Women on Long-term Dialysis: A Case Series

Background: Although still uncommon, pregnancy frequency in women on maintenance hemodialysis therapy has increased in the past 20 years. Most published reports suggest that intensified hemodialysis regimens result in better pregnancy outcomes. The small number of patients investigated in all reported series is the main limitation of the available studies. Study Design: Retrospective case series. Setting & Participants: Data for all pregnancies that occurred in 1988-2008 in women undergoing maintenance hemodialysis (52 pregnancies) at the Sao Paulo University Medical School (Sao Paulo, Brazil). Outcomes & Measurements: We analyzed maternal and fetal outcomes of 52 pregnancies, as well as their relationship with various clinical, laboratory, and hemodialysis parameters, such as pre-eclampsia, pregnancy before or after dialysis therapy, hemodialysis dose, polyhydramnios, anemia, and predialysis serum urea level. In addition, logistic regression models for a composite adverse fetal outcome (perinatal death or extremely premature delivery) and linear regression models for birth weight were built. Results: 87% overall rate of successful delivery, with a mean gestational age of 32.7 +/- 3.1 weeks. Pre-eclampsia was associated with a poor prognosis compared with pregnancies without pre-eclampsia: a successful delivery rate of 60% versus 92.9% (P = 0.02), extremely premature delivery rate of 77.8% versus 3.3% (P = 0.001), lower gestational age (P = 0.001), and birth weight (P = 0.001). Patients with an adverse composite fetal outcome had a higher frequency of pre-eclampsia (P = 0.001), lower frequency of polyhydramnios (P = 0.03), lower third-trimester hematocrit (P = 0.03), and higher predialysis serum urea level (P = 0.03). The same results were seen for birth weight. Limitations: Retrospective data analysis. The absence of creatinine clearance measurements did not allow evaluation of the impact of residual renal function on fetal outcome. Conclusions: Outcomes of pregnancy in women undergoing hemodialysis often are good. Preeclampsia, third-trimester hematocrit, polyhydramnios, and predialysis serum urea level are important variables associated with fetal outcome and birth weight. Am J Kidney Dis 56:77-85. (C) 2010 by the National Kidney Foundation, Inc.Inc

Predictive Factors for Positive Surgical Margins and Their Locations After Robot-Assisted Laparoscopic Radical Prostatectomy

Background: Positive surgical margin (PSM) after radical prostatectomy (RP) has been shown to be an independent predictive factor for cancer recurrence. Several investigations have correlated clinical and histopathologic findings with surgical margin status after open RP. However, few studies have addressed the predictive factors for PSM after robot-assisted laparoscopic RP (RARP). Objective: We sought to identify predictive factors for PSMs and their locations after RARP. Design, setting, and participants: We prospectively analyzed 876 consecutive patients who underwent RARP from January 2008 to May 2009. Intervention: All patients underwent RARP performed by a single surgeon with previous experience of > 1500 cases. Measurements: Stepwise logistic regression was used to identify potential predictive factors for PSM. Three logistic regression models were built: (1) one using preoperative variables only, (2) another using all variables (preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative) combined, and (3) one created to identify potential predictive factors for PSM location. Preoperative variables entered into the models included age, body mass index (BMI), prostate-specific antigen, clinical stage, number of positive cores, percentage of positive cores, and American Urological Association symptom score. Intra-and postoperative variables analyzed were type of nerve sparing, presence of median lobe, percentage of tumor in the surgical specimen, gland size, histopathologic findings, pathologic stage, and pathologic Gleason grade. Results and limitations: In the multivariable analysis including preoperative variables, clinical stage was the only independent predictive factor for PSM, with a higher PSM rate for T3 versus T1c (odds ratio [OR]: 10.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.6-43.8) and for T2 versus T1c (OR: 2.9; 95% CI, 1.9-4.6). Considering pre-, intra-, and postoperative variables combined, percentage of tumor, pathologic stage, and pathologic Gleason score were associated with increased risk of PSM in the univariable analysis (p < 0.001 for all variables). However, in the multivariable analysis, pathologic stage (pT2 vs pT1; OR: 2.9; 95% CI, 1.9-4.6) and percentage of tumor in the surgical specimen (OR: 8.7; 95% CI, 2.2-34.5; p = 0.0022) were the only independent predictive factors for PSM. Finally, BMI was shown to be an independent predictive factor(OR: 1.1; 95% CI, 1.0-1.3; p = 0.0119) for apical PSMs, with increasing BMI predicting higher incidence of apex location. Because most of our patients were referred from other centers, the biopsy technique and the number of cores were not standardized in our series. Conclusions: Clinical stage was the only preoperative variable independently associated with PSM after RARP. Pathologic stage and percentage of tumor in the surgical specimen were identified as independent predictive factors for PSMs when analyzing pre-, intra-, and postoperative variables combined. BMI was shown to be an independent predictive factor for apical PSMs. (C) 2010 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

Violence against women is strongly associated with suicide attempts: Evidence from the WHO multi-country study on women`s health and domestic violence against women

Suicidal behaviours are one of the most important contributors to the global burden of disease among women, but little is known about prevalence and modifiable risk factors in low and middle income countries. We use data from the WHO multi-country study on women`s health and domestic violence against women to examine the prevalence of suicidal thoughts and attempts, and relationships between suicide attempts and mental health status, child sexual abuse, partner violence and other variables. Population representative cross-sectional household surveys were conducted from 2000-2003 in 13 provincial (more rural) and city (urban) sites in Brazil, Ethiopia, japan, Namibia, Peru, Samoa, Serbia, Thailand and Tanzania. 20967 women aged 15-49 years participated. Prevalence of lifetime suicide attempts, lifetime suicidal thoughts, and suicidal thoughts in the past four weeks were calculated, and multivariate logistic regression models were fit to examine factors associated with suicide attempts in each site. Prevalence of lifetime suicide attempts ranged from 0.8% (Tanzania) to 12.0% (Peru city): lifetime thoughts of suicide from 7.2% (Tanzania province) to 29.0% (Peru province), and thoughts in the past four weeks from 1.9% (Serbia) to 13.6% (Peru province). 25-50% of women with suicidal thoughts in the past four weeks had also visited a health worker in that time. The most consistent risk factors for suicide attempts after adjusting for probable common mental health disorders were: intimate partner violence, non-partner physical violence, ever being divorced, separated or widowed, childhood sexual abuse and having a mother who had experienced intimate partner violence. Mental health policies and services must recognise the consistent relationship between violence and suicidality in women in low and middle income countries. Training health sector workers to recognize and respond to the consequences of violence may substantially reduce the health burden associated with suicidal behaviour. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

GB virus type C infection modulates T-cell activation independently of HIV-1 viral load

Background: Many clinical studies have suggested a beneficial effect of GB virus type C (GBV-C) on the course of HIV-1 infection, but the mechanisms involved in such amelioration are not clear. As recent evidence has implicated cellular activation in HIV-1 pathogenesis, we investigated the effect of GBV-C viremia on T-cell activation in early HIV-1 infection. Methods: Forty-eight recently infected HIV-1 patients (23 GBV-C viremic) were evaluated for T-cell counts, expanded immunophenotyping GBV-C RNA detection, and HIV-1 viral load. Nonparametric univariate and multivariate analyses were carried out to identify variables associated with cellular activation, including GBV-C status, HIV-1 viral load, T lymphocyte counts, and CD38 and chemokine (C-C motif) receptor 5 (CCR5) surface expression. Finding: We not only confirmed the positive correlation between HIV-1 viral load and the percentage of T cells positive for CD38(+)CD8(+) but also observed that GBV-C viremic patients had a lower percentage of T cells positive for CD38(+)CD4(+), CD38(+)CD8(+), CCR5(+)CD4(+), and CCR5(+)CD8(+) compared with HIV-1-infected patients who were not GBV-C viremic. In regression models, GBV-C RNA(+) status was associated with a reduction in the CD38 on CD4(+) or CD8(+) T cells and CCR5(+) on CD8(+) T cells, independent of the HIV-1 viral load or CD4(+) and CD8(+) T-cell counts. These results were also supported by the lower expression of CD69 and CD25 in GBV-C viremic patients. Interpretation: The association between GBV-C replication and lower T-cell activation may be a key mechanism involved in the protection conferred by this virus against HIV-1 disease progression to immunodeficiency in HIV-1-infected patients. (C) 2009 Wolters Kluwer Health | Lippincott Williams & Wilkins

Association between degenerative aortic valve disease and long-term exposure to cardiovascular risk factors: results of the longitudinal population-based KORA/MONICA survey

Degenerative aortic valve disease (DAVD), a common finding in the elderly, is associated with an increased risk of death due to cardiovascular causes. Taking advantage of its longitudinal design, this study evaluates the prevalence of DAVD and its temporal associations with long-term exposure to cardiovascular risk factors in the general population. We studied 953 subjects (aged 25-74 years) from a random sample of German residents. Risk factors had been determined at a baseline investigation in 1994/95. At a follow-up investigation, 10 years later, standardized echocardiography determined aortic valve morphology and aortic valve area (AVA) as well as left ventricular geometry and function. At the follow-up study, the overall prevalence of DAVD was 28%. In logistic regression models adjusting for traditional cardiovascular risk factors at baseline age (OR 2.0 [1.7-2.3] per 10 years, P < 0.001), active smoking (OR 1.7 [1.1-2.4], P = 0.009) and elevated total cholesterol levels (OR 1.2 [1.1-1.3] per increase of 20 mg/dL, P < 0.001) were significantly related to DAVD at follow-up. Furthermore, age, baseline status of smoking, and total cholesterol level were significant predictors of a smaller AVA at follow-up study. In contrast, hypertension and obesity had no detectable relationship with long-term changes of aortic valve structure. In the general population we observed a high prevalence of DAVD that is associated with long-term exposure to elevated cholesterol levels and active smoking. These findings strengthen the notion that smoking cessation and cholesterol lowering are promising treatment targets for prevention of DAVD.