Predicting random effects with an expanded finite population mixed model

Prediction of random effects is an important problem with expanding applications. In the simplest context, the problem corresponds to prediction of the latent value (the mean) of a realized cluster selected via two-stage sampling. Recently, Stanek and Singer [Predicting random effects from finite population clustered samples with response error. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 99, 119-130] developed best linear unbiased predictors (BLUP) under a finite population mixed model that outperform BLUPs from mixed models and superpopulation models. Their setup, however, does not allow for unequally sized clusters. To overcome this drawback, we consider an expanded finite population mixed model based on a larger set of random variables that span a higher dimensional space than those typically applied to such problems. We show that BLUPs for linear combinations of the realized cluster means derived under such a model have considerably smaller mean squared error (MSE) than those obtained from mixed models, superpopulation models, and finite population mixed models. We motivate our general approach by an example developed for two-stage cluster sampling and show that it faithfully captures the stochastic aspects of sampling in the problem. We also consider simulation studies to illustrate the increased accuracy of the BLUP obtained under the expanded finite population mixed model. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bootstrap percolation on homogeneous trees has 2 phase transitions

We study the threshold theta bootstrap percolation model on the homogeneous tree with degree b + 1, 2 <= theta <= b, and initial density p. It is known that there exists a nontrivial critical value for p, which we call p(f), such that a) for p > p(f), the final bootstrapped configuration is fully occupied for almost every initial configuration, and b) if p < p(f) , then for almost every initial configuration, the final bootstrapped configuration has density of occupied vertices less than 1. In this paper, we establish the existence of a distinct critical value for p, p(c), such that 0 < p(c) < p(f), with the following properties: 1) if p <= p(c), then for almost every initial configuration there is no infinite cluster of occupied vertices in the final bootstrapped configuration; 2) if p > p(c), then for almost every initial configuration there are infinite clusters of occupied vertices in the final bootstrapped configuration. Moreover, we show that 3) for p < p(c), the distribution of the occupied cluster size in the final bootstrapped configuration has an exponential tail; 4) at p = p(c), the expected occupied cluster size in the final bootstrapped configuration is infinite; 5) the probability of percolation of occupied vertices in the final bootstrapped configuration is continuous on [0, p(f)] and analytic on (p(c), p(f) ), admitting an analytic continuation from the right at p (c) and, only in the case theta = b, also from the left at p(f).

Geodesics and Almost Geodesic Cycles in Random Regular Graphs

A geodesic in a graph G is a shortest path between two vertices of G. For a specific function e(n) of n, we define an almost geodesic cycle C in G to be a cycle in which for every two vertices u and v in C, the distance d(G)(u, v) is at least d(C)(u, v) - e(n). Let omega(n) be any function tending to infinity with n. We consider a random d-regular graph on n vertices. We show that almost all pairs of vertices belong to an almost geodesic cycle C with e(n)= log(d-1)log(d-1) n+omega(n) and vertical bar C vertical bar =2 log(d-1) n+O(omega(n)). Along the way, we obtain results on near-geodesic paths. We also give the limiting distribution of the number of geodesics between two random vertices in this random graph. (C) 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Graph Theory 66: 115-136, 2011

Asymmetric Ramsey Properties of Random Graphs Involving Cliques

Consider the following problem: Forgiven graphs G and F(1),..., F(k), find a coloring of the edges of G with k colors such that G does not contain F; in color i. Rodl and Rucinski studied this problem for the random graph G,,, in the symmetric case when k is fixed and F(1) = ... = F(k) = F. They proved that such a coloring exists asymptotically almost surely (a.a.s.) provided that p <= bn(-beta) for some constants b = b(F,k) and beta = beta(F). This result is essentially best possible because for p >= Bn(-beta), where B = B(F, k) is a large constant, such an edge-coloring does not exist. Kohayakawa and Kreuter conjectured a threshold function n(-beta(F1,..., Fk)) for arbitrary F(1), ..., F(k). In this article we address the case when F(1),..., F(k) are cliques of different sizes and propose an algorithm that a.a.s. finds a valid k-edge-coloring of G(n,p) with p <= bn(-beta) for some constant b = b(F(1),..., F(k)), where beta = beta(F(1),..., F(k)) as conjectured. With a few exceptions, this algorithm also works in the general symmetric case. We also show that there exists a constant B = B(F,,..., Fk) such that for p >= Bn(-beta) the random graph G(n,p) a.a.s. does not have a valid k-edge-coloring provided the so-called KLR-conjecture holds. (C) 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Random Struct. Alg., 34, 419-453, 2009

Examples from trees, related to discrete subsets, pseudo-radiality and omega-boundedness

We construct some examples using trees. Some of them are consistent counterexamples for the discrete reflection of certain topological properties. All the properties dealt with here were already known to be non-discretely reflexive if we assume CH and we show that the same is true assuming the existence of a Suslin tree. In some cases we actually get some ZFC results. We construct also, using a Suslin tree, a compact space that is pseudo-radial but it is not discretely generated. With a similar construction, but using an Aronszajn tree, we present a ZFC space that is first countable, omega-bounded but is not strongly w-bounded, answering a question of Peter Nyikos. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

GENOTYPE CHARACTERIZATION OF THE Haematobia irritans (DIPTERA: MUSCIDAE) FROM BRAZIL, DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND COLOMBIA BASED ON RANDOMLY AMPLIFIED POLYMORPHIC DNA (RAPD) ANALYSIS

Blood-sucking flies are important parasites in animal production systems, especially regarding confinement conditions. Haematobia irritans, the horn fly, is one of the most troublesome species within bovine production systems, due to the intense stress imposed to the animals. H. irritans is one of the parasites of cattle that cause significant economic losses in many parts of the world, including South America. In the present work, Brazilian, Colombian and Dominican Republic populations of this species were studied by Random Amplified Polymorphic DNA(RAPD) to assess basically genetic variability between populations. Fifteen different decamer random primers were employed in the genomic DNA amplification, yielding 196 fragments in the three H. irritans populations. Among h. irritans samples, that from Colombia produced the smallest numbers of polymorphic hands. This high genetic homogeneity may be ascribed to its geographic origin, which causes high isolation, low gene flow, unlike the other American populations, from Brazil and Dominican Republic. Molecular marker fragments, which its produced exclusive bands, detected in every sample enabled the population origin to be characterized, but they are also potentially useful for further approaches such as the putative origin of Brazilian, Colombian and Dominican Republic populations of horn fly from South America. Similarity indices produced by chemo metric analysis showed the closest relationships between flies from Brazil and Dominican Republic, while flies from Colombia showed the greatest genotypic differentiation relative to the others populations.

Nuclear magnetic resonance characterization of metabolite disorder in orange trees caused by citrus sudden death disease

Citrus sudden death (CSD) is a new disease of sweet orange and mandarin trees grafted on Rangpur lime and Citrus volkameriana rootstocks. It was first seen in Brazil in 1999, and has since been detected in more than four million trees. The CSD causal agent is unknown and the current hypothesis involves a virus similar to Citrus tristeza virus or a new virus named Citrus sudden death-associated virus. CSD symptoms include generalized foliar discoloration, defoliation and root death, and, in most cases, it can cause tree death. One of the unique characteristics of CSD disease is the presence of a yellow stain in the rootstock bark near the bud union. This region also undergoes profound anatomical changes. In this study, we analyse the metabolic disorder caused by CSD in the bark of sweet orange grafted on Rangpur lime by nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy and imaging. The imaging results show the presence of a large amount of non-functional phloem in the rootstock bark of affected plants. The spectroscopic analysis shows a high content of triacylglyceride and sucrose, which may be related to phloem blockage close to the bud union. We also propose that, without knowing the causal CSD agent, the determination of oil content in rootstock bark by low-resolution NMR can be used as a complementary method for CSD diagnosis, screening about 300 samples per hour.