89 resultados para Probabilistic charts


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Introduction Different modalities of palliation for obstructive symptoms in patients with unresectable esophageal cancer (EC) exist. However, these therapeutic alternatives have significant differences in costs and effectiveness. Methods A Markov model was designed to compare the cost-effectiveness (CE) of self-expandable stent (SES), brachytherapy and laser in the palliation of unresectable EC. Patients were assigned to one of the strategies, and the improvement in swallowing function was compared given the treatment efficacy, probability of survival, and risks of complications associated to each strategy. Probabilities and parameters for distribution were based on a 9-month time frame. Results Under the base-case scenario, laser has the lowest CE ratio, followed by brachytherapy at an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $4,400.00, and SES is a dominated strategy. In the probabilistic analysis, laser is the strategy with the highest probability of cost-effectiveness for willingness to pay (WTP) values lower than $3,201 and brachytherapy for all WTP yielding a positive net health benefit (NHB) (threshold $4,440). The highest probability of cost-effectiveness for brachytherapy is 96%, and consequently, selection of suboptimal strategies can lead to opportunity losses for the US health system, ranging from US$ 4.32 to US$ 38.09 million dollars over the next 5-20 years. Conclusion Conditional to the WTP and current US Medicare costs, palliation of unresectable esophageal cancers with brachytherapy provides the largest amount of NHB and is the strategy with the highest probability of CE. However, some level of uncertainly remains, and wrong decisions will be made until further knowledge is acquired.

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Objective: To analyze the prognostic effect of epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR), matrix metalloproteinases 2 and 9, and vascular endothelial growth factor expression in patients with locally recurrent oral carcinoma after salvage surgery. Design: Retrospective cohort study. Settings: Tertiary center cancer hospital. Patients: The charts of 111 patients with local recurrence of oral carcinomas were retrospectively analyzed. The previous treatment consisted of surgery in 33 patients (30.0%), radiotherapy with or without chemotherapy in 46 patients (41.0%), and surgery with adjuvant radiotherapy in 32 patients (29.0%). The expression of EGFR, matrix metalloproteinases 2 and 9, and vascular endothelial growth factor was analyzed with a tissue microarray immunohistochemical technique. Main Outcome Measures: Overall survival and cancer-specific survival (CSS). Results: The recurrences were diagnosed in less than 1 year in 69 patients (62.2%) and in more than 1 year in 42 patients (37.8%). The prognosis was worse in the group with the disease-free interval of less than 1 year (P=.01). Patients with more advanced disease (clinical stage of recurrence, III/IV) had worse rates of CSS (P=.04). Cases that were positive for EGFR had a 3-year CSS of 27.2%, while EGFR-negative cases had a 3-year CSS of 64.3% (P=.001). The expression of matrix metalloproteinases 2 (P=.83) and 9 (P=.15) and vascular endothelial growth factor (P=.86) was not significant in this group. In multivariate analysis, only the disease-free interval and the overexpression of EGFR were associated with a higher risk of cancer death. Conclusions: Local recurrence in oral carcinomas carries a poor prognosis. A disease-free interval of more than 1 year and a EGFR-negative expression are the main prognostic factors related to better CSS in patients treated with salvage surgery.

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Autopsy is a valuable tool in evaluating diagnostic accuracy. Solid malignancies may have a protracted presentation, and diagnosis frequently requires imaging and deep-sited biopsies; clinical and postmortem diagnosis discrepancies may occur in a high rate in these diseases. Here, we analyzed the occurrence of clinico-pathological discrepancies in the diagnoses of solid malignancies in a Brazilian academic hospital. We reviewed charts and autopsy reports of the patients that died from 2001 to 2003 with at least one solid neoplasm. Patients were classified in concordant and discordant cases regarding cancer diagnosis. Discordant cases were categorized in undiagnosed cases (no suspicion of cancer) and in misdiagnosed cases (clinical suspicion of cancer but incompletely diagnosed). Among the 264 patients with a single non-incidental solid neoplasm, the clinico-pathological discrepancy rate was 37.1%. Liver (22.5%), lung (19.4%), and pancreatic cancer (15.3%) were the most frequent malignancies in the discordant group. Misdiagnosis category comprised 68% of the discordant cases, i.e., there was no correct knowledge about the tumor primary site and/or the histological type during life. Our data show that a high rate of discrepancies occurs in solid malignancies. Autopsies may provide the basis for a better understanding of diagnostic deficiencies in different circumstances. (C) 2008 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

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Aims: To evaluate sociodemographic correlates associated with transitions from alcohol use to disorders and remission in a Brazilian population. Methods: Data are from a probabilistic, multi-stage clustered sample of adult household residents in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area. Alcohol use, regular use (at least 12 drinks/year), DSM-IV abuse and dependence and remission from alcohol use disorders (AUDs) were assessed with the World Mental Health version of the Composite International Diagnostic Interview. Age of onset (AOO) distributions of the cumulative lifetime probability of each alcohol use stage were prepared with data obtained from 5037 subjects. Correlates of transitions were obtained from a subsample of 2942 respondents, whose time-dependent sociodemographic data were available. Results: Lifetime prevalences were 85.8% for alcohol use, 56.2% for regular use, 10.6% for abuse and 3.6% for dependence; 73.4 and 58.8% of respondents with lifetime abuse and dependence, respectively, had remitted. The number of sociodemographic correlates decreased from alcohol use to disorders. All transitions across alcohol use stages up to abuse were consistently associated with male gender, younger cohorts and lower education. Importantly, low education was a correlate for developing AUD and not remitting from dependence. Early AOO of first alcohol use was associated with the transition of regular use to abuse. Conclusion: The present study demonstrates that specific correlates differently contribute throughout alcohol use trajectory in a Brazilian population. It also reinforces the need of preventive programs focused on early initiation of alcohol use and high-risk individuals, in order to minimize the progression to dependence and improve remission from AUD.

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Human leukocyte antigen (HLA) haplotypes are frequently evaluated for population history inferences and association studies. However, the available typing techniques for the main HLA loci usually do not allow the determination of the allele phase and the constitution of a haplotype, which may be obtained by a very time-consuming and expensive family-based segregation study. Without the family-based study, computational inference by probabilistic models is necessary to obtain haplotypes. Several authors have used the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to determine HLA haplotypes, but high levels of erroneous inferences are expected because of the genetic distance among the main HLA loci and the presence of several recombination hotspots. In order to evaluate the efficiency of computational inference methods, 763 unrelated individuals stratified into three different datasets had their haplotypes manually defined in a family-based study of HLA-A, -B, -DRB1 and -DQB1 segregation, and these haplotypes were compared with the data obtained by the following three methods: the Expectation-Maximization (EM) and Excoffier-Laval-Balding (ELB) algorithms using the arlequin 3.11 software, and the PHASE method. When comparing the methods, we observed that all algorithms showed a poor performance for haplotype reconstruction with distant loci, estimating incorrect haplotypes for 38%-57% of the samples considering all algorithms and datasets. We suggest that computational haplotype inferences involving low-resolution HLA-A, HLA-B, HLA-DRB1 and HLA-DQB1 haplotypes should be considered with caution.

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The objective of the present study was: (a) to identify the concerns, verbally expressed, of 50 mothers regarding their preterm infants (PT) and then compare their verbal expression with those of 25 mothers of full-term infants (FT): and (b) to correlate the mothers` verbal expressions with maternal and infant variables. The following instruments were used to compose and characterize the sample: Structure Clinical Interview for DSM III-R Non-Patient (SCID/NP), State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI), Beck Depression Inventory (BDI), and medical charts. Results showed that there was no difference between groups in term of mothers` expectations and conceptualizations, both groups exhibited predominantly positive expectations and concepts. In comparison with FT mothers, PT mothers verbally expressed more feelings and reactions predominantly negative or conflicting in relation to infant birth. Higher levels of maternal anxiety and depression in the PT Group were correlated with more verbal expressions about negative or conflicting emotions. In addition, lower birth weight, higher neonatal risk and longer length of stay in intensive care nursery of the infants were related with more negative or conflicting concepts by the mothers.

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The spread of an infectious disease in a population involves interactions leading to an epidemic outbreak through a network of contacts. Extending on Watts and Strogatz (1998) who showed that short-distance connections create a small-world effect, a model combining short-and long-distance probabilistic and regularly updated contacts helps considering spatial heterogeneity. The method is based on cellular automata. The presence of long-distance connections accelerates the small-world effect, as if the world shrank in proportion of their total number.

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To assess the immunization status of pediatric renal transplant patients followed at a single center in Brazil, vaccination charts of all patients aged between one and 18 yr were analyzed both pre- and post-transplantation. Appropriate immunization was defined according to the National Immunization Program (routine vaccines) - for all Brazilian children - and the Special Immunobiological Agents Program that also includes special vaccines for immunodeficient or other high-risk children. A total of 46 patients was evaluated (mean age 13.7 yr; range 4-17 yr). Vaccination charts were found to be up to date in only two patients (4.3%) pretransplant and in two (4.3%) post-transplant. Although 36 patients (62.2%) in the pretransplant phase and 24 (52.1%) in the post-transplant phase had been vaccinated according to the National Immunization Program, they had not received the special vaccines indicated for their immunocompromised condition. Therefore, despite being followed at a referral center, almost all patients presented an incomplete immunization status pre- and post-transplant. This probably reflects missed opportunities and medical/parental apprehension related to vaccination of patients with chronic renal insufficiency, dialysis or kidney transplantation. Efforts should be made to ensure adequate vaccination in children with kidney diseases, especially before kidney transplantation.

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PURPOSE. Fungal keratitis (FK) is a sight-threatening disease, more prevalent in developing regions. The present retrospective study was conducted in order to evaluate the epidemiologic and clinical aspects and the progression of FK in patients treated at two ophthalmologic reference centers in Southeast Brazil. METHODS. The charts of patients with infectious keratitis treated between 2000 and 2004 were reviewed. For the 66 cases of FK confirmed by microbiological analysis, data related to patient, disease, and therapeutic approaches were obtained. RESULTS. Mean patient age was 40.7 +/- 16 years. Fifty-three were men and 13 were women. Ocular trauma occurred in 40% of cases (27). Previous medications taken by the patients were quinolone in 72.5% and antimycotics in 30%. Visual acuity (VA) at presentation was >0.3 in 16% and <0.1 in 74.5%. Penetrant keratoplasty was performed in 38% and evisceration in 15%. The causing agents were Fusarium sp in 67%, Aspergillus sp in 10.5%, and Candida sp in 10%. Medication alone resolved 39% of cases within a mean period of 24.5 +/- 12 days. Final VA was >0.3 in 28%, and <0.1 in 63%. CONCLUSIONS. Fungal keratitis presented as a disease with severe complications, predominantly among young males, and was mostly caused by filamentous fungi. The present information permits the establishment of preventive strategies. Reducing the time between onset and treatment and using more accessible specific medication would reverse the negative prognosis. (Eur J Ophthalmol 2009; 19: 355-61)

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Purpose: To determine the prevalence of trachoma in Sao Gabriel da Cachoeira (SGC), the only urban community of the upper Rio Negro Basin of the Amazon state in Brazil, near the Colombian border, and to investigate the risk factors associated with the active forms of the disease. Methods: A total of 1702 people (440 children up to 9 years and 1069 adults aged 15 years and above) were examined. The sample was selected from a probabilistic household sampling procedure based on census data and a previous study of trachoma prevalence in Sao Gabriel da Cachoeira. A two-stage probabilistic household cluster sample was drawn. Household units were randomly selected within each cluster. A variety of socioeconomic and hygiene variables were studied in order to determine the risk factors for active trachoma in a household. Results: The total prevalence of trachoma was 8.9%. Prevalence of active trachoma (TF and/or TI) in children aged 1-9 years was 11.1% and trachomatous trichiasis in adults aged 15 years and above was 0.19%. Trachomatous scarring reached a peak of 22.4% for subjects between 50 to 60 years of age. Corneal opacity occurred in subjects aged 50 years and older with a prevalence of 2.0%. No sex effect was found on the overall prevalence of trachoma in SGC. Risk factors associated with active trachoma were mainly related to poor socioeconomic indicators. Conclusions: Despite the ubiquitous presence of water, the analysis of the risk factors associated with the active forms of the disease supports the idea that a low personal standard of hygiene and not water availability per se, is the key factor associated with trachoma.

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Objective To compare the demographic features, presenting manifestations, diagnostic investigations, disease course, and drug therapies of children with juvenile dermatomyositis (JDM) followed in Europe and Latin America. Methods Patients were inception cohorts seen between 1980 and 2004 in 27 paediatric rheumatology centres. The following information was collected through the review of patient charts: sex; age at disease onset; date of disease onset and diagnosis; onset type; presenting clinical features; diagnostic investigations; course type; and medications received during disease course. Results Four hundred and ninety patients (65.5% females, mean onset age 7.0 years, mean disease duration 7.7 years) were included. Disease presentation was acute or insidious in 57.1% and 42.9% of the patients, respectively. The course type was monophasic in 41.3% of patients and chronic polycyclic or continuous in 58.6% of patients. The more common presenting manifestations were muscle weakness (84.9%), Gottron`s papules (72.9%), heliotrope rash (62%), and malar rash (56.7%). Overall, the demographic and clinical features of the 2 continental cohorts were comparable. European patients received more frequently high-dose intravenous methylprednisolone, cyclosporine, cyclophosphamide, and azathioprine, while methotrexate and antimalarials medications were used more commonly by Latin American physicians. Conclusion The demographic and clinical characteristics of JDM are similar in European and Latin American patients. We found, however, several differences in the use of medications between European and Latin American paediatric rheumatologists.

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Objective. To estimate physical violence between intimate partners and to examine the association between violence and sociodemographic variables, use of alcohol, and other related factors. Method. This epidemiologic survey included a stratified probabilistic sample representative of the population from the city of Sao Paulo in economic and educational terms. The Gender, Alcohol and Culture: An International Study (GENACIS) questionnaire was employed. The sampling unit was the home, where all individuals older than 18 years were candidates for interview. The final sample included 1 631 people. Statistical analysis employed the Rao Scott test and logistic regression. Results. The response rate was 74.5%. Most participants were female (58.8%), younger than 40 years of age (52%), or had 5 to 12 years of schooling. Of the overall group, 5.4% reported having been victims of physical violence by an intimate partner and 5.4% declared having been aggressors of intimate partners in the past 2 years. Most men declared that none of those involved had ingested alcohol at the moment of aggression. Most women reported that nobody or only the man had drunk. Being a victim or an aggressor was associated with younger age and having a heavy-drinking partner. Women suffered more serious aggression, requiring medical care, and expressed more anger and disgust at aggression than men. Conclusions. The results underscore the importance of the association between alcohol use and risk of aggression between intimate partners, and may contribute to the design of public policies aimed to control this situation.

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Background: Pain reactivity may reflect underlying mechanisms of constitutional aspects of temperament. Aim: To examine whether the neonatal biobehavioral reactivity and recovery responses from pain and distress, as well as the gestational age, the illness severity and the amount of painful procedures undergone the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU) stay, predict temperament later in toddlerhood, in vulnerable children born preterm. Study design: Prospective-longitudinal study. Subjects: Twenty-six preterm and very low birth weight infants followed from birth to toddlerhood. Outcome measures: Illness severity was assessed with the Clinical Risk Index for Babies (CRIB) score. The medical charts were reviewed prospectively for obtaining the amount of pain exposure in NICU. For assessing the behavioral and cardiac reactivity and recovery from pain and distress, the neonates were evaluated during routine blood collection in the NICU in the first 10 days of life. Pain and distress reactivity and recovery was measured using the Neonatal Facial Coding System score, the duration of crying. and the magnitude of average heart rate. At toddlerhood, mothers answered the Early Childhood Behavior Questionnaire. Results: Higher biobehavioral reactivity to pain and distress predicted higher temperamental Negative Affect, above and beyond gestational age, illness severity and amount of pain exposure in NICU. However, we did not find a predictive relation between gestational age, CRIB score and number of painful procedures undergone NICU and toddler`s temperament. Conclusions: The findings highlight the relevance of the neonatal individual characteristics of reactivity for identifying more vulnerable infants for future problems in biobehavioral regulation. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

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The objective of this study was to compare, on study models and initial cephalograms, the efficiency of Class II malocclusion treatment with the pendulum appliance, and with two maxillary premolar extraction protocol. The sample consisted of 48 treated Class II malocclusion patients: group 1 comprised 22 patients (7 males, 15 females) treated with the pendulum appliance, with an initial mean age of 14.44 years and group 2, 26 patients (14 males, 12 females) treated with two maxillary premolar extractions at an initial mean age of 13.66 years. To compare the efficiency of each treatment protocol, the occlusal outcomes were evaluated on dental casts using the Peer Assessment Rating (PAR) Index and the treatment time (TT) of each group was calculated on clinical charts. The degree of treatment efficiency was calculated as the ratio between the percentage of occlusal improvement, evaluated through the PAR index, and TT. Statistical analysis was undertaken by means of t-tests. The findings demonstrated that the two maxillary premolar extraction protocol provided the occlusal outcomes in a shorter time (group 1: 45.7 months, group 2: 23.01 months) and, therefore, demonstrated greater treatment efficiency than the pendulum appliance.