177 resultados para Predictive
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Tuberculosis (TB) is the primary cause of mortality among infectious diseases. Mycobacterium tuberculosis monophosphate kinase (TMPKmt) is essential to DNA replication. Thus, this enzyme represents a promising target for developing new drugs against TB. In the present study, the receptor-independent, RI, 4D-QSAR method has been used to develop QSAR models and corresponding 3D-pharmacophores for a set of 81 thymidine analogues, and two corresponding subsets, reported as inhibitors of TMPKmt. The resulting optimized models are not only statistically significant with r (2) ranging from 0.83 to 0.92 and q (2) from 0.78 to 0.88, but also are robustly predictive based on test set predictions. The most and the least potent inhibitors in their respective postulated active conformations, derived from each of the models, were docked in the active site of the TMPKmt crystal structure. There is a solid consistency between the 3D-pharmacophore sites defined by the QSAR models and interactions with binding site residues. Moreover, the QSAR models provide insights regarding a probable mechanism of action of the analogues.
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Despite the increase in the use of natural compounds in place of synthetic derivatives as antioxidants in food products, the extent of this substitution is limited by cost constraints. Thus, the objective of this study was to explore the synergism on the antioxidant activity of natural compounds, for further application in food products. Three hydrosoluble compounds (x(1) = caffeic acid, x(2) = carnosic acid, and x(3) = glutathione) and three liposoluble compounds (x(1) = quercetin, x(2) = rutin, and x(3) = genistein) were mixed according to a ""centroid simplex design"". The antioxidant activity of the mixtures was analyzed by the ferric reducing antioxidant power (FRAP) and oxygen radical absorbance capacity (ORAL) methodologies, and activity was also evaluated in an oxidized mixed micelle prepared with linoleic acid (LAOX). Cubic polynomial models with predictive capacity were obtained when the mixtures were submitted to the LAOX methodology ((y) over cap = 0.56 x(1) + 0.59 x(2) + 0.04 x(3) + 0.41 x(1)x(2) - 0.41 x(1)x(3) - 1.12 x(2)x(3) - 4.01 x(1)x(2)x(3)) for the hydrosoluble compounds, and to FRAP methodology ((y) over cap = 3.26 x(1) + 2.39 x(2) + 0.04 x(3) + 1.51 x(1)x(2) + 1.03 x(1)x(3) + 0.29 x(1)x(3) + 3.20 x(1)x(2)x(3)) for the liposoluble compounds. Optimization of the models suggested that a mixture containing 47% caffeic acid + 53% carnosic acid and a mixture containing 67% quercetin + 33% rutin were potential synergistic combinations for further evaluation using a food matrix.
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In this work total reflection X-ray fluorescence spectrometry has been employed to determine trace element concentrations in different human breast tissues (normal, normal adjacent, benign and malignant). A multivariate discriminant analysis of observed levels was performed in order to build a predictive model and perform tissue-type classifications. A total of 83 breast tissue samples were studied. Results showed the presence of Ca, Ti, Fe, Cu and Zn in all analyzed samples. All trace elements, except Ti, were found in higher concentrations in both malignant and benign tissues, when compared to normal tissues and normal adjacent tissues. In addition, the concentration of Fe was higher in malignant tissues than in benign neoplastic tissues. An opposite behavior was observed for Ca, Cu and Zn. Results have shown that discriminant analysis was able to successfully identify differences between trace element distributions from normal and malignant tissues with an overall accuracy of 80% and 65% for independent and paired breast samples respectively, and of 87% for benign and malignant tissues. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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This paper addresses the investment decisions considering the presence of financial constraints of 373 large Brazilian firms from 1997 to 2004, using panel data. A Bayesian econometric model was used considering ridge regression for multicollinearity problems among the variables in the model. Prior distributions are assumed for the parameters, classifying the model into random or fixed effects. We used a Bayesian approach to estimate the parameters, considering normal and Student t distributions for the error and assumed that the initial values for the lagged dependent variable are not fixed, but generated by a random process. The recursive predictive density criterion was used for model comparisons. Twenty models were tested and the results indicated that multicollinearity does influence the value of the estimated parameters. Controlling for capital intensity, financial constraints are found to be more important for capital-intensive firms, probably due to their lower profitability indexes, higher fixed costs and higher degree of property diversification.
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Aims: To estimate dementia prevalence and describe the etiology of dementia in a community sample from the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Methods: A sample of subjects older than 60 years was screened for dementia in the first phase. During the second phase, the diagnostic workup included a structured interview, physical and neurological examination, laboratory exams, a brain scan, and DSM-IV criteria diagnosis. Results: Mean age was 71.5 years (n = 1,563) and 58.3% had up to 4 years of schooling (68.7% female). Dementia was diagnosed in 107 subjects with an observed prevalence of 6.8%. The estimate of dementia prevalence was 12.9%, considering design effect, nonresponse during the community phase, and positive and negative predictive values. Alzheimer`s disease was the most frequent cause of dementia (59.8%), followed by vascular dementia (15.9%). Older age and illiteracy were significantly associated with dementia. Conclusions: The estimate of dementia prevalence was higher than previously reported in Brazil, with Alzheimer`s disease and vascular dementia being the most frequent causes of dementia. Dementia prevalence in Brazil and in other Latin American countries should be addressed by additional studies to confirm these higher dementia rates which might have a sizable impact on countries` health services. Copyright (C) 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel
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This study investigated the organic and inorganic constituents of healthy leaves and Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus (CLas)-inoculated leaves of citrus plants. The bacteria CLas are one of the causal agents of citrus greening (or Huanglongbing) and its effect on citrus leaves was investigated using laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) combined with chemometrics. The information obtained from the LIBS spectra profiles with chemometrics analysis was promising for the construction of predictive models to identify healthy and infected plants. The major, macro- and microconstituents were relevant for differentiation of the sample conditions. The models were then applied to different inoculation times (from 1 to 8 months). The models were effective in the classification of 82-97% of the diseased samples with a 95% significance level. The novelty of this method was in the fingerprinting of healthy and diseased plants based on their organic and inorganic contents. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Background: We tested the hypothesis that the universal application of myocardial scanning with single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) would result in better risk stratification in renal transplant candidates (RTC) compared with SPECT being restricted to patients who, in addition to renal disease, had other clinical risk factors. Methods: RTCs (n=363) underwent SPECT and clinical risk stratification according to the American Society of Transplantation (AST) algorithm and were followed up until a major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) or death. Results: Of the 363 patients, 79 patients (22%) had an abnormal SPECT scan and 270 (74%) were classified as high risk. Both methods correctly identified patients with increased probability of MACE. However, clinical stratification performed better (sensitivity and negative predictive value 99% and 99% vs. 25% and 87%, respectively). High-risk patients with an abnormal SPECT scan had a modest increased risk of events (log-rank = 0.03; hazard ratio [HR] = 1.37; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.02-1.82). Eighty-six patients underwent coronary angiography, and coronary artery disease (CAD) was found in 60%. High-risk patients with CAD had an increased incidence of events (log-rank = 0.008; HR=3.85; 95% CI, 1.46-13.22), but in those with an abnormal SPECT scan, the incidence of events was not influenced by CAD (log-rank = 0.23). Forty-six patients died. Clinical stratification, but not SPECT, correlated with the probability of death (log-rank = 0.02; HR=3.25; 95% CI, 1.31-10.82). Conclusion: SPECT should be restricted to high-risk patients. Moreover, in contrast to SPECT, the AST algorithm was also useful for predicting death by any cause in RTCs and for selecting patients for invasive coronary testing.
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Background: The presence of coronary artery calcium (CAC) is an independent marker of increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events and mortality. However, the predictive value of thoracic aorta calcification (TAC), which can be additionally identified without further scanning during assessment of CAC, is unknown. Methods: We followed a cohort of 8401 asymptomatic individuals (mean age: 53 +/- 10 years, 69% men) undergoing cardiac risk factor evaluation and TAC and CAC testing with electron beam computed tomography. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were developed to predict all-cause mortality based on the presence of TAC. Results: During a median follow-up period of 5 years, 124 (1.5%) deaths were observed. Overall survival was 96.9% and 98.9% for those with and without detectable TAC, respectively (p < 0.0001). Compared to those with no TAC, the hazard ratio for mortality in the presence of TAC was 3.25 (95% CI: 2.28-4.65, p < 0.0001) in unadjusted analysis. After adjusting for age, gender, hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes mellitus, smoking and family history of premature coronary artery disease, and presence of CAC the relationship remained robust (HR 1.61, 95% CI: 1.10-2.27, p = 0.015). Likelihood ratio chi(2) statistics demonstrated that the addition of TAC contributed significantly in predicting mortality to traditional risk factors alone (chi(2) = 13.62, p = 0.002) as well as risk factors + CAC (chi(2) = 5.84, p = 0.02) models. Conclusion: In conclusion, the presence of TAC was associated with all-cause mortality in our study; this relationship was independent of conventional CVD risk factors as well as the presence of CAC. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Objectives This study was designed to evaluate whether the absence of coronary calcium could rule out >= 50% coronary stenosis or the need for revascularization. Background The latest American Heart Association guidelines suggest that a calcium score (CS) of zero might exclude the need for coronary angiography among symptomatic patients. Methods A substudy was made of the CORE64 (Coronary Evaluation Using Multi-Detector Spiral Computed Tomography Angiography Using 64 Detectors) multicenter trial comparing the diagnostic performance of 64-detector computed tomography to conventional angiography. Patients clinically referred for conventional angiography were asked to undergo a CS scan up to 30 days before. Results In all, 291 patients were included, of whom 214 (73%) were male, and the mean age was 59.3 +/- 10.0 years. A total of 14 (5%) patients had low, 218 (75%) had intermediate, and 59 (20%) had high pre-test probability of obstructive coronary artery disease. The overall prevalence of >= 50% stenosis was 56%. A total of 72 patients had CS = 0, among whom 14 (19%) had at least 1 >= 50% stenosis. The overall sensitivity for CS = 0 to predict the absence of >= 50% stenosis was 45%, specificity was 91%, negative predictive value was 68%, and positive predictive value was 81%. Additionally, revascularization was performed in 9 (12.5%) CS = 0 patients within 30 days of the CS. From a total of 383 vessels without any coronary calcification, 47 (12%) presented with >= 50% stenosis; and from a total of 64 totally occluded vessels, 13 (20%) had no calcium. Conclusions The absence of coronary calcification does not exclude obstructive stenosis or the need for revascularization among patients with high enough suspicion of coronary artery disease to be referred for coronary angiography, in contrast with the published recommendations. Total coronary occlusion frequently occurs in the absence of any detectable calcification. (Coronary Evaluation Using Multi-Detector Spiral Computed Tomography Angiography Using 64 Detectors [CORE-64]; NCT00738218) (J Am Coll Cardiol 2010;55:627-34) (C) 2010 by the American College of Cardiology Foundation
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Objectives: To describe current practice for the discontinuation of continuous renal replacement therapy in a multinational setting and to identify variables associated with successful discontinuation. The approach to discontinue continuous renal replacement therapy may affect patient outcomes. However, there is lack of information on how and under what conditions continuous renal replacement therapy is discontinued. Design: Post hoc analysis of a prospective observational study. Setting. Fifty-four intensive care units in 23 countries. Patients: Five hundred twenty-nine patients (52.6%) who survived initial therapy among 1006 patients treated with continuous renal replacement therapy. Interventions: None. Measurements and Main Results., Three hundred thirteen patients were removed successfully from continuous renal replacement therapy and did not require any renal replacement therapy for at least 7 days and were classified as the ""success"" group and the rest (216 patients) were classified as the ""repeat-RRT"" (renal replacement therapy) group. Patients in the ""success"" group had lower hospital mortality (28.5% vs. 42.7%, p < .0001) compared with patients in the ""repeat-RRT"" group. They also had lower creatinine and urea concentrations and a higher urine output at the time of stopping continuous renal replacement therapy. Multivariate logistic regression analysis for successful discontinuation of continuous renal replacement therapy identified urine output (during the 24 hrs before stopping continuous renal replacement therapy: odds ratio, 1.078 per 100 mL/day increase) and creatinine (odds ratio, 0.996 per mu mol/L increase) as significant predictors of successful cessation. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve to predict successful discontinuation of continuous renal replacement therapy was 0.808 for urine output and 0.635 for creatinine. The predictive ability of urine output was negatively affected by the use of diuretics (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.671 with diuretics and 0.845 without diuretics). Conclusions. We report on the current practice of discontinuing continuous renal replacement therapy in a multinational setting. Urine output at the time of initial cessation (if continuous renal replacement therapy was the most important predictor of successful discontinuation, especially if occurring without the administration of diuretics. (Crit Care Med 2009; 37:2576-2582)
Coronary CT angiography using 64 detector rows: methods and design of the multi-centre trial CORE-64
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Multislice computed tomography (MSCT) for the noninvasive detection of coronary artery stenoses is a promising candidate for widespread clinical application because of its non-invasive nature and high sensitivity and negative predictive value as found in several previous studies using 16 to 64 simultaneous detector rows. A multi-centre study of CT coronary angiography using 16 simultaneous detector rows has shown that 16-slice CT is limited by a high number of nondiagnostic cases and a high false-positive rate. A recent meta-analysis indicated a significant interaction between the size of the study sample and the diagnostic odds ratios suggestive of small study bias, highlighting the importance of evaluating MSCT using 64 simultaneous detector rows in a multi-centre approach with a larger sample size. In this manuscript we detail the objectives and methods of the prospective ""CORE-64"" trial (""Coronary Evaluation Using Multidetector Spiral Computed Tomography Angiography using 64 Detectors""). This multi-centre trial was unique in that it assessed the diagnostic performance of 64-slice CT coronary angiography in nine centres worldwide in comparison to conventional coronary angiography. In conclusion, the multi-centre, multi-institutional and multi-continental trial CORE-64 has great potential to ultimately assess the per-patient diagnostic performance of coronary CT angiography using 64 simultaneous detector rows.
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Chronic hepatitis C (CHC) is one of the most important causes of chronic liver disease in the world, potentially resulting in cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and the need for liver transplantation. Liver biopsy is currently performed before therapy indication. Although, it is the golden standard there are many reasons to avoid or delay the procedure. APRI Score is an easy, low cost and practice alternative method which was described as an alternative for assessing structural changes in chronic hepatitis C (CHC). The rationale of this study was to observe the accuracy of APRI Score in comparison to liver biopsy in 400 patients divided into two groups of 200 carriers (Validation and Experimental groups respectively) selected at random or according to liver fibrosis staging (METAVIR). The ROC curves showed a concordance among these two methods of 92% and 88.5% when 1.05 was the cut off (F3 and F4), and 87% and 83%, on 0.75 cut offs (F2-F4). The discordance in advanced fibrosis staging (F3 and F4) was only 16 (8%) and 22 (11%) out of 200 patients in the experimental and validation groups, respectively. In 26 (13%) out of 200 patients in the experimental group and 34 (17%) out of 200 patients in the validation group, there was discordance between APRI Score and liver biopsy in moderate and advanced fibrosis (F2-F4). In conclusion APRI is a serological marker that has satisfactory sensitivity and specificity together with a high predictive value and it can be useful either in the absence of a biopsy or to reduce the frequency with which biopsies need to be carried out to monitor the evolution of chronic hepatitis C and the right moment for treatment indication.
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Background Metabolic syndrome refers to risk factors for cardiovascular disease. Hyperglycemia is a critical component contributing to the predictive power of the syndrome. This study aimed to evaluate the results from the laparoscopic interposition of an ileum segment into the proximal jejunum for the treatment of metabolic syndrome in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and a body mass index (BMI) lower than 35. Methods Laparoscopic procedures were performed for 60 patients (24 women and 36 men) with a mean age of 51.7 +/- 6.4 years (range, 27-66 years) and a mean BMI of 30.1 +/- 2.7 (range, 23.6-34.4). All the patients had a diagnosis of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) given at least 3 years previously and evidence of stable treatment using oral hypoglycemic agents, insulin, or both for at least 12 months. The mean duration of type 2 diabetes mellitus was 9.6 +/- 4.6 years (range, 3-22 years). Metabolic syndrome was diagnosed for all 60 patients. Arterial hypertension was diagnosed for 70% of the patients (mean number of drugs, 1.6) and hypertriglyceridemia for 70%. High-density lipoprotein was altered in 51.7% of the patients and the abdominal circumference in 68.3%. Two techniques were performed: ileal interposition (II) into the proximal jejunum and sleeve gastrectomy (II-SG) or ileal interposition associated with a diverted sleeve gastrectomy (II-DSG). Results The II-SG procedure was performed for 32 patients and the II-DSG procedure for 28 patients. The mean postoperative follow-up period was 7.4 months (range, 3-19 months). The mean BMI was 23.8 +/- 4.1 kg/m(2), and 52 patients (86.7%) achieved adequate glycemic control. Hypertriglyceridemia was normalized for 81.7% of the patients. An high-density lipoprotein level higher than 40 for the men and higher than 50 for the women was achieved by 90.3% of the patients. The abdominal circumference reached was less than 102 cm for the men and 88 cm for the women. Arterial hypertension was controlled in 90.5% of the patients. For the control of metabolic syndrome, II-DSG was the more effective procedure. Conclusions Laparoscopic II-SG and II-DSG seem to be promising procedures for the control of the metabolic syndrome and type 2 diabetes mellitus. A longer follow-up period is needed.
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Background: The accuracy of multidetector computed tomographic (CT) angiography involving 64 detectors has not been well established. Methods: We conducted a multicenter study to examine the accuracy of 64-row, 0.5-mm multidetector CT angiography as compared with conventional coronary angiography in patients with suspected coronary artery disease. Nine centers enrolled patients who underwent calcium scoring and multidetector CT angiography before conventional coronary angiography. In 291 patients with calcium scores of 600 or less, segments 1.5 mm or more in diameter were analyzed by means of CT and conventional angiography at independent core laboratories. Stenoses of 50% or more were considered obstructive. The area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUC) was used to evaluate diagnostic accuracy relative to that of conventional angiography and subsequent revascularization status, whereas disease severity was assessed with the use of the modified Duke Coronary Artery Disease Index. Results: A total of 56% of patients had obstructive coronary artery disease. The patient-based diagnostic accuracy of quantitative CT angiography for detecting or ruling out stenoses of 50% or more according to conventional angiography revealed an AUC of 0.93 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.90 to 0.96), with a sensitivity of 85% (95% CI, 79 to 90), a specificity of 90% (95% CI, 83 to 94), a positive predictive value of 91% (95% CI, 86 to 95), and a negative predictive value of 83% (95% CI, 75 to 89). CT angiography was similar to conventional angiography in its ability to identify patients who subsequently underwent revascularization: the AUC was 0.84 (95% CI, 0.79 to 0.88) for multidetector CT angiography and 0.82 (95% CI, 0.77 to 0.86) for conventional angiography. A per-vessel analysis of 866 vessels yielded an AUC of 0.91 (95% CI, 0.88 to 0.93). Disease severity ascertained by CT and conventional angiography was well correlated (r=0.81; 95% CI, 0.76 to 0.84). Two patients had important reactions to contrast medium after CT angiography. Conclusions: Multidetector CT angiography accurately identifies the presence and severity of obstructive coronary artery disease and subsequent revascularization in symptomatic patients. The negative and positive predictive values indicate that multidetector CT angiography cannot replace conventional coronary angiography at present. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00738218.).
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OBJECTIVE. Coronary MDCT angiography has been shown to be an accurate noninvasive tool for the diagnosis of obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD). Its sensitivity and negative predictive value for diagnosing percentage of stenosis are unsurpassed compared with those of other noninvasive testing methods. However, in its current form, it provides no information regarding the physiologic impact of CAD and is a poor predictor of myocardial ischemia. CORE320 is a multicenter multinational diagnostic study with the primary objective to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of 320-MDCT for detecting coronary artery luminal stenosis and corresponding myocardial perfusion deficits in patients with suspected CAD compared with the reference standard of conventional coronary angiography and SPECT myocardial perfusion imaging. CONCLUSION. We aim to describe the CT acquisition, reconstruction, and analysis methods of the CORE320 study.