Forward-looking versus recursive-dynamic modeling in climate policy analysis: A comparison

This paper develops a multi-regional general equilibrium model for climate policy analysis based on the latest version of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. We develop two versions so that we can solve the model either as a fully inter-temporal optimization problem (forward-looking, perfect foresight) or recursively. The standard EPPA model on which these models are based is solved recursively, and it is necessary to simplify some aspects of it to make inter-temporal solution possible. The forward-looking capability allows one to better address economic and policy issues such as borrowing and banking of GHG allowances, efficiency implications of environmental tax recycling, endogenous depletion of fossil resources, international capital flows, and optimal emissions abatement paths among others. To evaluate the solution approaches, we benchmark each version to the same macroeconomic path, and then compare the behavior of the two versions under a climate policy that restricts greenhouse gas emissions. We find that the energy sector and CO(2) price behavior are similar in both versions (in the recursive version of the model we force the inter-temporal theoretical efficiency result that abatement through time should be allocated such that the CO(2) price rises at the interest rate.) The main difference that arises is that the macroeconomic costs are substantially lower in the forward-looking version of the model, since it allows consumption shifting as an additional avenue of adjustment to the policy. On the other hand, the simplifications required for solving the model as an optimization problem, such as dropping the full vintaging of the capital stock and fewer explicit technological options, likely have effects on the results. Moreover, inter-temporal optimization with perfect foresight poorly represents the real economy where agents face high levels of uncertainty that likely lead to higher costs than if they knew the future with certainty. We conclude that while the forward-looking model has value for some problems, the recursive model produces similar behavior in the energy sector and provides greater flexibility in the details of the system that can be represented. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Contextual politics of service delivery reforms: Lessons from Delhi, Mexico city and Sao Paulo comparison

Little attention has been given to the contextual politics of service delivery reforms. By focusing on cases of reform in the healthcare sector and, to a lesser extent, in the main policies in the social service sector in India, Mexico and Brazil, this article explores two dimensions of analysis which have enormous relevance in understanding the reach and effectiveness of service delivery reforms: (1) the historical timing of reforms and sectorial baselines, and (2) the degree and institutional locus of local discretion in policy. Findings show that depending on both dimensions, there is an extraordinary variation as to the degree, interests involved and meaning of changes which, in theory, correspond to these countries` commitment to the service delivery reforms, However, consideration of the contextual politics is relevant not for the sake of diversity but for the similarities that this diversity reveals, pointing to underlying analytic dimensions that receive attention in this article.

A comparison of social structures in Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo

This article presents the results of a comparative study on socio-spatial structures in Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo in 2000. We drew on data from the national Demographic Census by weighted areas to construct the Erikson, Goldthorpe, and Portocarrero (EGP) classification and the International Socio-Economic Index (ISEI), both widely used in social stratification studies. This information was then submitted to group analyses for the two cities, allowing comparison of the presence of social groups in each city. Next, using spatial statistics, we assessed the spatial distribution of the socio-economic classes and the presence of social segregation in the two metropolitan areas. The results suggest the presence of strong similarity between the social structures in the two cities, also marked by similarly intense patterns of social segregation at the metropolitan level.

Symptoms after mould exposure including Stachybotrys chartarum, and comparison with darkroom disease

P>Background: Mould-attributed symptoms have included features which overlap with unexplained syndromes such as sick building syndrome. Objectives: We describe questionnaire and chart review findings in patients following exposure to moulds which include Stachybotrys and compare responses with two control groups. Methods: Thirty-two patients presented with symptoms attributed to mould exposures. Exposure identification for 25 patients had reported S tachybotrys chartarum as well as other mould (Aspergillus, Penicillium), 88% at work. The remaining seven had professionally visualized or self-reported/photographic exposure evidence only. A chart review was performed and a follow-up with a questionnaire, including questions on current health status, and nonspecific symptoms. Results: Cough, shortness of breath and chest tightness (at presentation) were reported in 79%, 70% and 64%, respectively, and persisted > 6 weeks in 91%. Skin test(s) were positive to fungal extract(s) in 30%. Seventeen returned questionnaires were obtained 3.1 (SD 0.5) years after the initial clinic assessment. Among this subgroup, persisting asthma-like symptoms and symptoms suggestive of sick building syndrome were frequent, and similar to a group previously assessed for darkroom disease among medical radiation technologists. The mould-exposed group more commonly reported they were bothered when walking in a room with carpets, complained of a chemical or metallic taste in their mouth, and had problems in concentration when compared with a control physiotherapist group (P < 0.005). Conclusions: Although only a minority with health concerns from indoor mould exposure had demonstrable mould-allergy, a significant proportion had asthma-like symptoms. Other symptoms were also common and persistent after the initial implicated exposure.

A comparison of observed versus estimated baseline creatinine for determination of RIFLE class in patients with acute kidney injury

Methods. Data from the Beginning and Ending Supportive Therapy for the Kidney (BEST Kidney) study, a prospective observational study from 54 ICUs in 23 countries of critically ill patients with severe AKI, were analysed. The RIFLE class was determined by using observed (o) pre-morbid and estimated (e) baseline SCr values. Agreement was evaluated by correlation coefficients and Bland-Altman plots. Sensitivity analysis by chronic kidney disease (CKD) status was performed. Results. Seventy-six percent of patients (n = 1327) had a pre-morbid baseline SCr, and 1314 had complete data for evaluation. Forty-six percent had CKD. The median (IQR) values were 97 mu mol/L (79-150) for oSCr and 88 mu mol/L (71-97) for eSCr. The oSCr and eSCr determined at ICU admission and at study enrolment showed only a modest correlation (r = 0.49, r = 0.39). At ICU admission and study enrolment, eSCr misclassified 18.8% and 11.7% of patients as having AKI compared with oSCr. Exclusion of CKD patients improved the correlation between oSCr and eSCr at ICU admission and study enrolment (r = 0.90, r = 0.84) resulting in 6.6% and 4.0% being misclassified, respectively. Conclusions. While limited, estimating baseline SCr by the MDRD equation when pre-morbid SCr is unavailable would appear to perform reasonably well for determining the RIFLE categories only if and when pre-morbid GFR was near normal. However, in patients with suspected CKD, the use of MDRD to estimate baseline SCr overestimates the incidence of AKI and should not likely be used. Improved methods to estimate baseline SCr are needed.

Cardiac MRI for Detection of Unrecognized Myocardial Infarction in Patients With End-Stage Renal Disease: Comparison With ECG and Scintigraphy

OBJECTIVE. The purposes of this study were to use the myocardial delayed enhancement technique of cardiac MRI to investigate the frequency of unrecognized myocardial infarction (MI) in patients with end-stage renal disease, to compare the findings with those of ECG and SPECT, and to examine factors that may influence the utility of these methods in the detection of MI. SUBJECTS AND METHODS. We prospectively performed cardiac MRI, ECG, and SPECT to detect unrecognized MI in 72 patients with end-stage renal disease at high risk of coronary artery disease but without a clinical history of MI. RESULTS. Fifty-six patients (78%) were men ( mean age, 56.2 +/- 9.4 years) and 16 (22%) were women ( mean age, 55.8 +/- 11.4). The mean left ventricular mass index was 103.4 +/- 27.3 g/m(2), and the mean ejection fraction was 60.6% +/- 15.5%. Myocardial delayed enhancement imaging depicted unrecognized MI in 18 patients (25%). ECG findings were abnormal in five patients (7%), and SPECT findings were abnormal in 19 patients (26%). ECG findings were false-negative in 14 cases and false-positive in one case. The accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of ECG were 79.2%, 22.2%, and 98.1% (p = 0.002). SPECT findings were false-negative in six cases and false-positive in seven cases. The accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of SPECT were 81.9%, 66.7%, and 87.0% ( not significant). During a period of 4.9-77.9 months, 19 cardiac deaths were documented, but no statistical significance was found in survival analysis. CONCLUSION. Cardiac MRI with myocardial delayed enhancement can depict unrecognized MI in patients with end-stage renal disease. ECG and SPECT had low sensitivity in detection of MI. Infarct size and left ventricular mass can influence the utility of these methods in the detection of MI.

Anemia screening in potential female blood donors: comparison of two different quantitative methods

Anemia screening before blood donation requires an accurate, quick, practical, and easy method with minimal discomfort for the donors. The aim of this study was to compare the accuracy of two quantitative methods of anemia screening: the HemoCue 201(+) (Aktiebolaget Leo Diagnostics) hemoglobin (Hb) and microhematocrit (micro-Hct) tests. Two blood samples of a single fingerstick were obtained from 969 unselected potential female donors to determine the Hb by HemoCue 201(+) and micro-Hct using HemataSTAT II (Separation Technology, Inc.), in alternating order. From each participant, a venous blood sample was drawn and run in an automatic hematology analyzer (ABX Pentra 60, ABX Diagnostics). Considering results of ABX Pentra 60 as true values, the sensitivity and specificity of HemoCue 201(+) and micro-Hct as screening methods were compared, using a venous Hb level of 12.0 g per dL as cutoff for anemia. The sensitivities of the HemoCue 201(+) and HemataSTAT II in detecting anemia were 56 percent (95% confidence interval [CI], 46.1%-65.5%) and 39.5 percent (95% CI, 30.2%-49.3%), respectively (p < 0.001). Analyzing only candidates with a venous Hb level lower than 11.0 g per dL, the deferral rate was 100 percent by HemoCue 201(+) and 77 percent by HemataSTAT II. The specificities of the methods were 93.5 and 93.2 percent, respectively. The HemoCue 201(+) showed greater discriminating power for detecting anemia in prospective blood donors than the micro-Hct method. Both presented equivalent deferral error rates of nonanemic potential donors. Compared to the micro-Hct, HemoCue 201(+) reduces the risk of anemic female donors giving blood, specially for those with lower Hb levels, without increasing the deferral of nonanemic potential donors.

A comparison of methods to identify open-lung PEEP

Purpose: Many methods exist in the literature for identifying PEEP to set in ARDS patients following a lung recruitment maneuver (RM). We compared ten published parameters for setting PEEP following a RM. Methods: Lung injury was induced by bilateral lung lavage in 14 female Dorset sheep, yielding a PaO(2) 100-150 mmHg at F(I)O(2) 1.0 and PEEP 5 cmH(2)O. A quasi-static P-V curve was then performed using the supersyringe method; PEEP was set to 20 cmH(2)O and a RM performed with pressure control ventilation (inspiratory pressure set to 40-50 cmH(2)O), until PaO(2) + PaCO(2) > 400 mmHg. Following the RM, a decremental PEEP trial was performed. The PEEP was decreased in 1 cmH(2)O steps every 5 min until 15 cmH(2)O was reached. Parameters measured during the decremental PEEP trial were compared with parameters obtained from the P-V curve. Results: For setting PEEP, maximum dynamic tidal respiratory compliance, maximum PaO(2), maximum PaO(2) + PaCO(2), and minimum shunt calculated during the decremental PEEP trial, and the lower Pflex and point of maximal compliance increase on the inflation limb of the P-V curve (Pmci,i) were statistically indistinguishable. The PEEP value obtained using the deflation upper Pflex and the point of maximal compliance decrease on the deflation limb were significantly higher, and the true inflection point on the inflation limb and minimum PaCO(2) were significantly lower than the other variables. Conclusion: In this animal model of ARDS, dynamic tidal respiratory compliance, maximum PaO(2), maximum PaO(2) + PaCO(2), minimum shunt, inflation lower Pflex and Pmci,i yield similar values for PEEP following a recruitment maneuver.

Comparison of Quantitative T-Wave Alternans Profiles of Healthy Subjects and ICD Patients

Background: Current relevance of T-wave alternans is based on its association with electrical disorder and elevated cardiac risk. Quantitative reports would improve understanding on TWA augmentation mechanisms during mental stress or prior to tachyarrhythmias. However, little information is available about quantitative TWA values in clinical populations. This study aims to create and compare TWA profiles of healthy subjects and ICD patients, evaluated on treadmill stress protocols. Methods: Apparently healthy subjects, not in use of any medication were recruited. All eligible ICD patients were capable of performing an attenuated stress test. TWA analysis was performed during a 15-lead treadmill test. The derived comparative profile consisted of TWA amplitude and its associated heart rate, at rest (baseline) and at peak TWA value. Chi-square or Mann-Whitney tests were used with p values <= 0.05. Discriminatory performance was evaluated by a binary logistic regression model. Results: 31 healthy subjects (8F, 23M) and 32 ICD patients (10F, 22M) were different on baseline TWA (1 +/- 2 mu V; 8 +/- 9 mu V; p < 0.001) and peak TWA values (26 +/- 13 mu V; 37 +/- 20 mu V; p = 0,009) as well as on baseline TWA heart rate (79 +/- 10 bpm; 67 +/- 15 bpm; p < 0.001) and peak TWA heart rate (118 +/- 8 bpm; 90 +/- 17 bpm; p < 0.001). The logistic model yielded sensitivity and specificity values of 88.9% and 92.9%, respectively. Conclusions: Healthy subjects and ICD patients have distinct TWA profiles. The new TWA profile representation (in amplitude-heart rate pairs) may help comparison among different research protocols. Ann Noninvasive Electrocardiol 2009;14(2):108-118.

Morphometric Study on the Anatomy of the Fetal Cricoid Cartilage and Comparison Between Its Inner Diameter and Endotracheal Tube Sizes

Objectives: The high incidence of respiratory disorders is one of the main problems in perinatal medical care. With the increased use of intubation, the incidence of laryngeal injury causing stenosis has also increased. The principal constriction point in the infant`s larynx is the midcricoid area. We sought to provide detailed morphometric data on the anatomy of the cricoid cartilage and its relationship with growth and body characteristics of fetuses at 5 to 9 months of gestational age. Methods: Nineteen larynges obtained from 17 stillborn infants and 2 newborn infants ranging in gestational age from 5 to 9 months were studied. Measurements of the cricoid cartilage were made with a millimeter-graded caliper. Results: Weight was the variable most correlated with cricoid measurements. The cricoid lumen configuration showed an almost elliptic shape and did not change with gestational age. The mean inner subglottic cricoid area was 19.27 +/- 9.62 mm(2) and was related to weight and body surface area. Cricoid growth was more pronounced at the outer portion of the cartilage. Conclusions: The cricoid lumen configuration was elliptic, and its mean area was smaller than that of available endotracheal tubes. This lumen area was most influenced by weight and height.

Hemihypoglossal-facial neurorrhaphy after mastoid dissection of the facial nerve: Results in 24 patients and comparison with the classic technique

OBJECTIVE: Hypoglossal-facial neurorrhaphy has been widely used for reanimation of paralyzed facial muscles after irreversible proximal injury of the facial nerve. However, complete section of the hypoglossal nerve occasionally results in hemiglossal dysfunction and interferes with swallowing and speech. To reduce this morbidity, a modified technique with partial section of the hypoglossal nerve after mastoid dissection of the facial nerve (HFM) has been used. We report our experience with the HFM technique, retrospectively comparing the outcome with results of the classic hypoglossal-facial neurorrhaphy. METHODS: A retrospective review was performed in 36 patients who underwent hypoglossal-facial neurorrhaphy with the classic (n = 12) or variant technique (n = 24) between 2000 and 2006. Facial Outcome was evaluated with the House-Brackmann grading system, and tongue function was evaluated with a new scale proposed to quantify Postoperative tongue alteration. The results were compared, and age and time between nerve injury and surgery were correlated with the outcome. RESULTS: There was no significant difference between the two techniques concerning facial reanimation. A worse outcome of tongue function, however, was associated with the classic technique (Mann-Whitney U test; P < 0.05). When HFM was used, significant correlations defined by the Spearman test were identified between preoperative delay (p = 0.59; P = 0.002) or age (p = 0.42; P = 0.031) and results of facial reanimation evaluated with the House-Brackmann grading system. CONCLUSION: HFM is as effective as classic hypoglossal-facial neurorrhaphy for facial reanimation, and it has a much lower morbidity related to tongue function. Better results are obtained in younger patients and with a shorter interval between facial nerve injury and surgery.

Value of real time three-dimensional echocardiography in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy: Comparison with two-dimensional echocardiography and magnetic resonance imaging

Real time three-dimensional echocardiography (RT3DE) has been demonstrated to be an accurate technique to quantify left ventricular (LV) volumes and function in different patient populations. We sought to determine the value of RT3DE for evaluating patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM), in comparison with cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Methods: We studied 20 consecutive patients with HCM who underwent two-dimensional echocardiography (2DE), RT3DE, and MRI. Parameters analyzed by echocardiography and MRI included: wall thickness, LV volumes, ejection fraction (LVEF), mass, geometric index, and dyssynchrony index. Statistical analysis was performed by Lin agreement coefficient, Pearson linear correlation and Bland-Altman model. Results: There was excellent agreement between 2DE and RT3DE (Rc = 0.92), 2DE and MRI (Rc = 0.85), and RT3DE and MRI (Rc = 0.90) for linear measurements. Agreement indexes for LV end-diastolic and end-systolic volumes were Rc = 0.91 and Rc = 0.91 between 2DE and RT3DE, Rc = 0.94 and Rc = 0.95 between RT3DE and MRI, and Rc = 0.89 and Rc = 0.88 between 2DE and MRI, respectively. Satisfactory agreement was observed between 2DE and RT3DE (Rc = 0.75), RT3DE and MRI (Rc = 0.83), and 2DE and MRI (Rc = 0.73) for determining LVEF, with a mild underestimation of LVEF by 2DE, and smaller variability between RT3DE and MRI. Regarding LV mass, excellent agreement was observed between RT3DE and MRI (Rc = 0.96), with bias of -6.3 g (limits of concordance = 42.22 to -54.73 g). Conclusion: In patients with HCM, RT3DE demonstrated superior performance than 2DE for the evaluation of myocardial hypertrophy, LV volumes, LVEF, and LV mass.

Comparison of reading performance after bilateral implantation of multifocal intraocular lenses with+3.00 or+4.00 diopter addition

PURPOSE To compare reading ability after cataract surgery and bilateral implantation of multifocal intraocular lenses (IOLs) with a +3 00 diopter (D) addition (add) or a +4 00 D add SETTING Department of Ophthalmology, University of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil DESIGN Prospective comparative study METHODS Patients scheduled for cataract surgery were randomly assigned to bilateral implantation of an aspheric AcrySof ReSTOR multifocal IOL with a +3 00 diopter (D) addition (add) or a +4 00 D add The reading speed, critical print size, and reading acuity were measured binocularly with best correction using MNREAD acuity charts 6 months after surgery Patients were tested with the chart at the best patient-preferred reading distance and at 40 cm Binocular uncorrected and best distance-corrected visual acuities at far and near were also measured RESULTS The study enrolled 32 patients At the best reading distance the results were similar between the 2 IOL groups in all reading parameters When tested at 40 cm, reading speed at all print sizes from 03 to 00 (all P< 001), critical print size (P< 001) and reading acuity (P = 014) were statistically significantly better in the +3 00 D IOL group than in the +4 00 DIOL group Uncorrected and corrected visual acuities at far and near were similar between the 2 groups CONCLUSION Although the 2 IOL groups had similar performance in reading parameters, patients had to adjust to their best reading distance The +3 00 D IOL performed better than the +4 00 D IOL at 40 cm

A quantitative coronary angiography-matched comparison between a prospective randomised multicentre cutting balloon angioplasty and bare metal stent trial (REDUCE III) and the Rapamycin-Eluting Stent Evaluation At Rotterdam Cardiology Hospital (RESEARCH) study

Aims: There remains significant concern about the long-term safety of drug-eluting stents (DES). However, bare metal stents (BMS) have been used safely for over two decades. There is therefore a pressing need to explore alternative strategies for reducing restenosis with BMS. This study was designed to examine whether IVUS-guided cutting balloon angioplasty (CBA) with BMS could convey similar restenosis rates to DES. Methods and results: In the randomised REstenosis reDUction by Cutting balloon angioplasty Evaluation (REDUCE III) study, 521 patients were divided into four groups based on device and IVUS use before BMS (IVUS-CBA-BMS: 137 patients; Angio-CBA-BMS: 123; IVUS-BA-BMS: 142; and Angio-BA-BMS: 119). At follow-up, the IVUS-CBA-BMS group had a significantly lower restenosis rate (6.6%) than the other groups (p=0.016). We performed a quantitative coronary angiography (QCA) based matched comparison between an IVUS-guided CBA-BMS strategy (REDUCE III) and a DES strategy (Rapamycin-Eluting-Stent Evaluation At Rotterdam Cardiology. Hospital, the RESEARCH study). We matched the presence of diabetes, vessel size, and lesion severity by QCA. Restenosis (>50% diameter stenosis at follow-up) and target vessel revascularisation (TVR) were examined. QCA-matched comparison resulted in 120-paired lesions. While acute gain was significantly greater in IVUS-CBA-BMS than DES (1.65 +/- 0.41 mm vs. 1.28 +/- 0.57 mm, p=0.001), late loss was significantly less with DES than with IVUS-CBA-BMS (0.03 +/- 0.42 mm vs. 0.80 +/- 0.47 mm, p=0.001). However, no difference was found in restenosis rates (IVUS-CBA-BMS: 6.6% vs. DES: 5.0%, p=0.582) and TVR (6.6% and 6.6%, respectively). Conclusions: An IVUS-guided CBA-BMS strategy yielded restenosis rates similar to those achieved by DES and provided an effective alternative to the use of DES.

Comparison of Inhaled Nitric Oxide Versus Oxygen on Hemodynamics in Patients With Mitral Stenosis and Severe Pulmonary Hypertension After Mitral Valve Surgery

Pulmonary hypertension represents an important cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with mitral stenosis who undergo cardiac surgery, especially in the postoperative period. The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that inhaled nitric oxide (iNO) would improve the hemodynamic effects and short-term clinical outcomes of patients with mitral stenosis and severe pulmonary hypertension who undergo cardiac surgery in a randomized, controlled study. Twenty-nine patients (4 men, 25 women; mean age 46 2 years) were randomly allocated to receive iNO (n = 14) or oxygen (n = 15) for 48 hours immediately after surgery. Hemodynamic data, the use of vasoactive drugs, duration of stay, and short-term complications were assessed. No differences in baseline characteristics were observed between the groups. After 24 and 48 hours, patients receiving iNO had a significantly greater increase in cardiac index compared to patients receiving oxygen (p < 0.0001). Pulmonary vascular resistance was also more significantly reduced in patients receiving iNO versus oxygen (-117 dyne/s/cm(5), 95% confidence interval 34 to 200, vs 40 dyne/s/cm5, 95% confidence interval 34 to 100, p = 0.005) at 48 hours. Patients in the iNO group used fewer systemic vasoactive drugs.(mean 2.1 +/- 0.14 vs 2.6 +/- 0.16, p = 0.046) and had a shorter intensive care unit stay (median 2 days, interquartile range 0.25, vs median 3 days, interquartile range 7, p = 0.02). In conclusion, iNO immediately after surgery in patients with mitral stenosis and severe pulmonary hypertension improves hemodynamics and may have short-term clinical benefits. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. (Am J Cardiol 2011;107:1040-1045)