Assembling a consistent set of sentences in relational probabilistic logic with stochastic independence

We examine the representation of judgements of stochastic independence in probabilistic logics. We focus on a relational logic where (i) judgements of stochastic independence are encoded by directed acyclic graphs, and (ii) probabilistic assessments are flexible in the sense that they are not required to specify a single probability measure. We discuss issues of knowledge representation and inference that arise from our particular combination of graphs, stochastic independence, logical formulas and probabilistic assessments. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Approximate algorithms for credal networks with binary variables

This paper presents a family of algorithms for approximate inference in credal networks (that is, models based on directed acyclic graphs and set-valued probabilities) that contain only binary variables. Such networks can represent incomplete or vague beliefs, lack of data, and disagreements among experts; they can also encode models based on belief functions and possibilistic measures. All algorithms for approximate inference in this paper rely on exact inferences in credal networks based on polytrees with binary variables, as these inferences have polynomial complexity. We are inspired by approximate algorithms for Bayesian networks; thus the Loopy 2U algorithm resembles Loopy Belief Propagation, while the Iterated Partial Evaluation and Structured Variational 2U algorithms are, respectively, based on Localized Partial Evaluation and variational techniques. (C) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Methods of Fourier optics in digital holographic microscopy

In this paper, processing methods of Fourier optics implemented in a digital holographic microscopy system are presented. The proposed methodology is based on the possibility of the digital holography in carrying out the whole reconstruction of the recorded wave front and consequently, the determination of the phase and intensity distribution in any arbitrary plane located between the object and the recording plane. In this way, in digital holographic microscopy the field produced by the objective lens can be reconstructed along its propagation, allowing the reconstruction of the back focal plane of the lens, so that the complex amplitudes of the Fraunhofer diffraction, or equivalently the Fourier transform, of the light distribution across the object can be known. The manipulation of Fourier transform plane makes possible the design of digital methods of optical processing and image analysis. The proposed method has a great practical utility and represents a powerful tool in image analysis and data processing. The theoretical aspects of the method are presented, and its validity has been demonstrated using computer generated holograms and images simulations of microscopic objects. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimating wave spectra from the motions of moored vessels: Experimental validation

The practicability of estimating directional wave spectra based on a vessel`s 1st order response has been recently addressed by several researchers. Different alternatives regarding statistical inference methods and possible drawbacks that could arise from their application have been extensively discussed, with an apparent preference for estimations based on Bayesian inference algorithms. Most of the results on this matter, however, rely exclusively on numerical simulations or at best on few and sparse full-scale measurements, comprising a questionable basis for validation purposes. This paper discusses several issues that have recently been debated regarding the advantages of Bayesian inference and different alternatives for its implementation. Among those are the definition of the best set of input motions, the number of parameters required for guaranteeing smoothness of the spectrum in frequency and direction and how to determine their optimum values. These subjects are addressed in the light of an extensive experimental campaign performed with a small-scale model of an FPSO platform (VLCC hull), which was conducted in an ocean basin in Brazil. Tests involved long and short crested seas with variable levels of directional spreading and also bimodal conditions. The calibration spectra measured in the tank by means of an array of wave probes configured the paradigm for estimations. Results showed that a wide range of sea conditions could be estimated with good precision, even those with somewhat low peak periods. Some possible drawbacks that have been pointed out in previous works concerning the viability of employing large vessels for such a task are then refuted. Also, it is shown that a second parameter for smoothing the spectrum in frequency may indeed increase the accuracy in some situations, although the criterion usually proposed for estimating the optimum values (ABIC) demands large computational effort and does not seem adequate for practical on-board systems, which require expeditious estimations. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Directional Wave Spectrum Estimation Based on Vessel`s 1st-order Motions: Field Results

In this paper, 2 different approaches for estimating the directional wave spectrum based on a vessel`s 1st-order motions are discussed, and their predictions are compared to those provided by a wave buoy. The real-scale data were obtained in an extensive monitoring campaign based on an FPSO unit operating at Campos Basin, Brazil. Data included vessel motions, heading and tank loadings. Wave field information was obtained by means of a heave-pitch-roll buoy installed in the vicinity of the unit. `two of the methods most widely used for this kind of analysis are considered, one based on Bayesian statistical inference, the other consisting of a parametrical representation of the wave spectrum. The performance of both methods is compared, and their sensitivity to input parameters is discussed. This analysis complements a set of previous validations based on numerical and towing-tank results and allows for a preliminary evaluation of reliability when applying the methodology at full scale.

Influence diagnostics for polyhazard models in the presence of covariates

In this paper, we present various diagnostic methods for polyhazard models. Polyhazard models are a flexible family for fitting lifetime data. Their main advantage over the single hazard models, such as the Weibull and the log-logistic models, is to include a large amount of nonmonotone hazard shapes, as bathtub and multimodal curves. Some influence methods, such as the local influence and total local influence of an individual are derived, analyzed and discussed. A discussion of the computation of the likelihood displacement as well as the normal curvature in the local influence method are presented. Finally, an example with real data is given for illustration.

Double generalized linear model for tissue culture proportion data: a Bayesian perspective

Joint generalized linear models and double generalized linear models (DGLMs) were designed to model outcomes for which the variability can be explained using factors and/or covariates. When such factors operate, the usual normal regression models, which inherently exhibit constant variance, will under-represent variation in the data and hence may lead to erroneous inferences. For count and proportion data, such noise factors can generate a so-called overdispersion effect, and the use of binomial and Poisson models underestimates the variability and, consequently, incorrectly indicate significant effects. In this manuscript, we propose a DGLM from a Bayesian perspective, focusing on the case of proportion data, where the overdispersion can be modeled using a random effect that depends on some noise factors. The posterior joint density function was sampled using Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithms, allowing inferences over the model parameters. An application to a data set on apple tissue culture is presented, for which it is shown that the Bayesian approach is quite feasible, even when limited prior information is available, thereby generating valuable insight for the researcher about its experimental results.

Evaluation of FAO Penman-Monteith and alternative methods for estimating reference evapotranspiration with missing data in Southern Ontario, Canada

Grass reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is an important agrometeorological parameter for climatological and hydrological studies, as well as for irrigation planning and management. There are several methods to estimate ETo, but their performance in different environments is diverse, since all of them have some empirical background. The FAO Penman-Monteith (FAD PM) method has been considered as a universal standard to estimate ETo for more than a decade. This method considers many parameters related to the evapotranspiration process: net radiation (Rn), air temperature (7), vapor pressure deficit (Delta e), and wind speed (U); and has presented very good results when compared to data from lysimeters Populated with short grass or alfalfa. In some conditions, the use of the FAO PM method is restricted by the lack of input variables. In these cases, when data are missing, the option is to calculate ETo by the FAD PM method using estimated input variables, as recommended by FAD Irrigation and Drainage Paper 56. Based on that, the objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of the FAO PM method to estimate ETo when Rn, Delta e, and U data are missing, in Southern Ontario, Canada. Other alternative methods were also tested for the region: Priestley-Taylor, Hargreaves, and Thornthwaite. Data from 12 locations across Southern Ontario, Canada, were used to compare ETo estimated by the FAD PM method with a complete data set and with missing data. The alternative ETo equations were also tested and calibrated for each location. When relative humidity (RH) and U data were missing, the FAD PM method was still a very good option for estimating ETo for Southern Ontario, with RMSE smaller than 0.53 mm day(-1). For these cases, U data were replaced by the normal values for the region and Delta e was estimated from temperature data. The Priestley-Taylor method was also a good option for estimating ETo when U and Delta e data were missing, mainly when calibrated locally (RMSE = 0.40 mm day(-1)). When Rn was missing, the FAD PM method was not good enough for estimating ETo, with RMSE increasing to 0.79 mm day(-1). When only T data were available, adjusted Hargreaves and modified Thornthwaite methods were better options to estimate ETo than the FAO) PM method, since RMSEs from these methods, respectively 0.79 and 0.83 mm day(-1), were significantly smaller than that obtained by FAO PM (RMSE = 1.12 mm day(-1). (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bayesian ratemaking procedure of crop insurance contracts with skewed distribution

Over the years, crop insurance programs became the focus of agricultural policy in the USA, Spain, Mexico, and more recently in Brazil. Given the increasing interest in insurance, accurate calculation of the premium rate is of great importance. We address the crop-yield distribution issue and its implications in pricing an insurance contract considering the dynamic structure of the data and incorporating the spatial correlation in the Hierarchical Bayesian framework. Results show that empirical (insurers) rates are higher in low risk areas and lower in high risk areas. Such methodological improvement is primarily important in situations of limited data.

Spatio-temporal modeling of agricultural yield data with an application to pricing crop insurance contracts

This article presents a statistical model of agricultural yield data based on a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that allows joint modeling of temporal and spatial autocorrelation. This method captures a comprehensive range of the various uncertainties involved in predicting crop insurance premium rates as opposed to the more traditional ad hoc, two-stage methods that are typically based on independent estimation and prediction. A panel data set of county-average yield data was analyzed for 290 counties in the State of Parana (Brazil) for the period of 1990 through 2002. Posterior predictive criteria are used to evaluate different model specifications. This article provides substantial improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to situations where data are limited.

EFFECT OF THERMAL TREATMENT ON PHENOLIC COMPOUNDS AND FUNCTIONALITY LINKED TO TYPE 2 DIABETES AND HYPERTENSION MANAGEMENT OF PERUVIAN AND BRAZILIAN BEAN CULTIVARS (PHASEOLUS VULGARIS L.) USING IN VITRO METHODS

The effect of thermal treatment on phenolic compounds and type 2 diabetes functionality linked to alpha-glucosidase and alpha-amylase inhibition and hypertension relevant angiotensin I-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibition were investigated in selected bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L,) cultivars from Peru and Brazil using in vitro models. Thermal processing by autoclaving decreased the total phenolic content in all cultivars, whereas the 1,1-diphenyl-2-picrylhydrazyl radical scavenging activity-linked antioxidant activity increased among Peruvian cultivars, alpha-Amylase and alpha-glucosidase inhibitory activities were reduced significantly after heat treatment (73-94% and 8-52%, respectively), whereas ACE inhibitory activity was enhanced (9-15%). Specific phenolic acids such as chlorogenic and caffeic acid increased moderately following thermal treatment (2-16% and 5-35%, respectively). No correlation was found between phenolic contents and functionality associated to antidiabetes and antihypertension potential, indicating that non phenolic compounds may be involved. Thermally processed bean cultivars are interesting sources of phenolic acids linked to high antioxidant activity and show potential for hypertension prevention.

Antioxidant capacity of the striped sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.) seed extracts evaluated by three in vitro methods

The antioxidant capacity of the striped sunflower seed cotyledon extracts, obtained by sequential extraction with different polarities of solvents, was evaluated by three different in vitro methods: ferric reducing/antioxidant power (FRAP), 2.2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl radical (DPPH) and oxygen radical absorbance capacity (ORAC) assays. In the three methods, the aqueous extract at 30 mu g/ml showed a higher antioxidant capacity value (FRAP, 45.27 mu mol; DPPH, 50.18%; ORAC, 1.5 Trolox equivalents) than the ethanolic extract (FRAP, 32.17 mu mol; DPPH, 15.21%; ORAC, 0.50 Trolox equivalents). When compared with the synthetic antioxidant butylated hydroxyl toluene, the antioxidant capacity of the aqueous extract varied from 45% to 66%, according to the used method. The high antioxidant capacity observed for the aqueous extract of the studied sunflower seed suggests that the intake of this seed may prevent in vivo oxidative reactions responsible for the development of several diseases, such as cancer.

Methods for detection of anatoxin-a(s) by liquid chromatography coupled to electrospray ionization-tandem mass spectrometry

Anatoxin-a(s) is a potent irreversible inhibitor of the enzyme acetylcholinesterase with a unique N-hydroxyguanidine methylphosphate ester chemical structure. Determination of this toxin in environmental samples is hampered by the lack of specific methods for its detection. Using the toxic strain of Anabaena lemmermani PH-160 B as positive control, the fragmentation characteristics of anatoxin-a(s) under collision-induced dissociation conditions have been investigated and new LC-MS/MS methods proposed. Recommended ion transitions for correct detection of this toxin are 253 > 58, 253 > 159, 235 > 98 and 235 > 96. Chromatographic separation is better achieved under HILIC conditions employing a ZIC-HILIC column. This method was used to confirm for the first time the production of anatoxin-a(s) by strains of Anabaena oumiana ITEP-025 and ITEP-026. Considering no standard solutions are commercially available, our results will be of significant use for the correct identification of this toxin by LC-MS/MS. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development and validation of sensitive methods for determination of sibutramine hydrochloride monohydrate and direct enantiomeric separation on a protein-based chiral stationary phase

Sibutramine hydrochloride monohydrate, chemically 1-(4-chlorophenyl)-N,N-dimethyl-alpha-(2-methylpropyl) hydrochloride monohydrate (SB center dot HCl center dot H2O), was approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for the treatment of obesity. The objective of this study was to develop, validate, and compare methods using UV-derivative spectrophotometry (UVDS) and reversed-phase high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) for the determination of SB center dot HCl center dot H2O in pharmaceutical drug products. The UVDS and HPLC methods were found to be rapid, precise, and accurate. Statistically, there was no significant difference between the proposed UVDS and HPLC methods. The enantiomeric separation of SB was obtained on an alpha-1 acid glycoprotein column. The R- and S-sibutramine were eluted in < 5 min with baseline separation of the chromatographic peaks (alpha = 1.9 and resolution = 1.9).

Determination of Vecuronium Bromide in Pharmaceuticals: Development, Validation and Comparative Study of HPLC and CZE Analytical Methods

Vecuronium bromide is a neuromuscular blocking agent used for anesthesia to induce skeletal muscle relaxation. HPLC and CZE analytical methods were developed and validated for the quantitative determination of vecuronium bromide. The HPLC method was achieved on an amino column (Luna 150 x 4.6 mm, 5 mu m) using UV detection at 205 nm. The mobile phase was composed of acetonitrile:water containing 25.0 mmol L(-1) of sodium phosphate monobasic (50:50 v/v), pH 4.6 and flow rate of 1.0 mL min(-1). The CZE method was achieved on an uncoated fused-silica capillary (40.0 cm total length, 31.5 cm effective length and 50 mu m i.d.) using indirect UV detection at 230 nm. The electrolyte comprised 1.0 mmol L(-1) of quinine sulfate dihydrate at pH 3.3 and 8.0% of acetonitrile. The results were used to compare both techniques. No significant differences were observed (p > 0.05).