Log-modified Weibull regression models with censored data: Sensitivity and residual analysis

This paper proposes a regression model considering the modified Weibull distribution. This distribution can be used to model bathtub-shaped failure rate functions. Assuming censored data, we consider maximum likelihood and Jackknife estimators for the parameters of the model. We derive the appropriate matrices for assessing local influence on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes and we also present some ways to perform global influence. Besides, for different parameter settings, sample sizes and censoring percentages, various simulations are performed and the empirical distribution of the modified deviance residual is displayed and compared with the standard normal distribution. These studies suggest that the residual analysis usually performed in normal linear regression models can be straightforwardly extended for a martingale-type residual in log-modified Weibull regression models with censored data. Finally, we analyze a real data set under log-modified Weibull regression models. A diagnostic analysis and a model checking based on the modified deviance residual are performed to select appropriate models. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Regression models for grouped survival data: Estimation and sensitivity analysis

In this study, regression models are evaluated for grouped survival data when the effect of censoring time is considered in the model and the regression structure is modeled through four link functions. The methodology for grouped survival data is based on life tables, and the times are grouped in k intervals so that ties are eliminated. Thus, the data modeling is performed by considering the discrete models of lifetime regression. The model parameters are estimated by using the maximum likelihood and jackknife methods. To detect influential observations in the proposed models, diagnostic measures based on case deletion, which are denominated global influence, and influence measures based on small perturbations in the data or in the model, referred to as local influence, are used. In addition to those measures, the local influence and the total influential estimate are also employed. Various simulation studies are performed and compared to the performance of the four link functions of the regression models for grouped survival data for different parameter settings, sample sizes and numbers of intervals. Finally, a data set is analyzed by using the proposed regression models. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The exponentiated generalized gamma distribution with application to lifetime data

A four-parameter extension of the generalized gamma distribution capable of modelling a bathtub-shaped hazard rate function is defined and studied. The beauty and importance of this distribution lies in its ability to model monotone and non-monotone failure rate functions, which are quite common in lifetime data analysis and reliability. The new distribution has a number of well-known lifetime special sub-models, such as the exponentiated Weibull, exponentiated generalized half-normal, exponentiated gamma and generalized Rayleigh, among others. We derive two infinite sum representations for its moments. We calculate the density of the order statistics and two expansions for their moments. The method of maximum likelihood is used for estimating the model parameters and the observed information matrix is obtained. Finally, a real data set from the medical area is analysed.

Double generalized linear model for tissue culture proportion data: a Bayesian perspective

Joint generalized linear models and double generalized linear models (DGLMs) were designed to model outcomes for which the variability can be explained using factors and/or covariates. When such factors operate, the usual normal regression models, which inherently exhibit constant variance, will under-represent variation in the data and hence may lead to erroneous inferences. For count and proportion data, such noise factors can generate a so-called overdispersion effect, and the use of binomial and Poisson models underestimates the variability and, consequently, incorrectly indicate significant effects. In this manuscript, we propose a DGLM from a Bayesian perspective, focusing on the case of proportion data, where the overdispersion can be modeled using a random effect that depends on some noise factors. The posterior joint density function was sampled using Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithms, allowing inferences over the model parameters. An application to a data set on apple tissue culture is presented, for which it is shown that the Bayesian approach is quite feasible, even when limited prior information is available, thereby generating valuable insight for the researcher about its experimental results.

Evaluation of FAO Penman-Monteith and alternative methods for estimating reference evapotranspiration with missing data in Southern Ontario, Canada

Grass reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is an important agrometeorological parameter for climatological and hydrological studies, as well as for irrigation planning and management. There are several methods to estimate ETo, but their performance in different environments is diverse, since all of them have some empirical background. The FAO Penman-Monteith (FAD PM) method has been considered as a universal standard to estimate ETo for more than a decade. This method considers many parameters related to the evapotranspiration process: net radiation (Rn), air temperature (7), vapor pressure deficit (Delta e), and wind speed (U); and has presented very good results when compared to data from lysimeters Populated with short grass or alfalfa. In some conditions, the use of the FAO PM method is restricted by the lack of input variables. In these cases, when data are missing, the option is to calculate ETo by the FAD PM method using estimated input variables, as recommended by FAD Irrigation and Drainage Paper 56. Based on that, the objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of the FAO PM method to estimate ETo when Rn, Delta e, and U data are missing, in Southern Ontario, Canada. Other alternative methods were also tested for the region: Priestley-Taylor, Hargreaves, and Thornthwaite. Data from 12 locations across Southern Ontario, Canada, were used to compare ETo estimated by the FAD PM method with a complete data set and with missing data. The alternative ETo equations were also tested and calibrated for each location. When relative humidity (RH) and U data were missing, the FAD PM method was still a very good option for estimating ETo for Southern Ontario, with RMSE smaller than 0.53 mm day(-1). For these cases, U data were replaced by the normal values for the region and Delta e was estimated from temperature data. The Priestley-Taylor method was also a good option for estimating ETo when U and Delta e data were missing, mainly when calibrated locally (RMSE = 0.40 mm day(-1)). When Rn was missing, the FAD PM method was not good enough for estimating ETo, with RMSE increasing to 0.79 mm day(-1). When only T data were available, adjusted Hargreaves and modified Thornthwaite methods were better options to estimate ETo than the FAO) PM method, since RMSEs from these methods, respectively 0.79 and 0.83 mm day(-1), were significantly smaller than that obtained by FAO PM (RMSE = 1.12 mm day(-1). (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatio-temporal modeling of agricultural yield data with an application to pricing crop insurance contracts

This article presents a statistical model of agricultural yield data based on a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that allows joint modeling of temporal and spatial autocorrelation. This method captures a comprehensive range of the various uncertainties involved in predicting crop insurance premium rates as opposed to the more traditional ad hoc, two-stage methods that are typically based on independent estimation and prediction. A panel data set of county-average yield data was analyzed for 290 counties in the State of Parana (Brazil) for the period of 1990 through 2002. Posterior predictive criteria are used to evaluate different model specifications. This article provides substantial improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to situations where data are limited.

Genetic population data of 12 STR loci of the PowerPlex (R) Y system in the state of Sao Paulo population (Southeast of Brazil)

Allele frequency distributions and population data for 12 Y-chromosomal short tandem repeats (STRs) included in the PowerPlex (R) Y Systems (Promega) were obtained for a sample of 200 healthy unrelated males living in S (a) over tildeo Paulo State (Southeast of Brazil). A total of 192 haplotypes were identified, of which 184 were unique and 8 were found in 2 individuals. The average gene diversity of the 12 Y-STR was 0.6746 and the haplotype diversity was 0.9996. Pairwise analysis confirmed that our population is more similar with the Italy, North Portugal and Spain, being more distant of the Japan. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

3D-Pharmacophore mapping of thymidine-based inhibitors of TMPK as potential antituberculosis agents

Tuberculosis (TB) is the primary cause of mortality among infectious diseases. Mycobacterium tuberculosis monophosphate kinase (TMPKmt) is essential to DNA replication. Thus, this enzyme represents a promising target for developing new drugs against TB. In the present study, the receptor-independent, RI, 4D-QSAR method has been used to develop QSAR models and corresponding 3D-pharmacophores for a set of 81 thymidine analogues, and two corresponding subsets, reported as inhibitors of TMPKmt. The resulting optimized models are not only statistically significant with r (2) ranging from 0.83 to 0.92 and q (2) from 0.78 to 0.88, but also are robustly predictive based on test set predictions. The most and the least potent inhibitors in their respective postulated active conformations, derived from each of the models, were docked in the active site of the TMPKmt crystal structure. There is a solid consistency between the 3D-pharmacophore sites defined by the QSAR models and interactions with binding site residues. Moreover, the QSAR models provide insights regarding a probable mechanism of action of the analogues.

Prospective ultramorphological characterization of human hair by optical coherence tomography

Background/purpose The continuous advancement in cosmetic science has led to an increasing demand for the development of non-invasive, reliable scientific techniques directed toward claim substantiation, which is of utmost relevance, to obtain data regarding the efficacy and safety of cosmetic products. Methods In this work, we used the optical coherence tomography (OCT) technique to produce in vitro transversal section-images of human hair. We also compared the OCT signal before and after chemical treatment with an 18% w/w ammonium thioglycolate solution. Results The mean diameter of the medulla was 29 +/- 7 mu m and the hair diameter was 122 +/- 16 mu m in our samples of standard Afro-ethnic hair. A three-dimensional (3D) image was constructed starting from 601 cross-sectional images (slices). Each slice was taken in steps of 6.0 mu m at eight frames per second, and the entire 3D image was constructed in 60 s. Conclusion It was possible to identify, using the A-scan protocol, the principal structures: the cuticle, cortex and medulla. After chemical treatment, it was not possible to identify the main structures of hair fiber due to index matching promoted by deleterious action of the chemical agent.

Rational Design and 3D-Pharmacophore Mapping of 5 `-Thiourea-Substituted alpha-Thymidine Analogues as Mycobacterial TMPK Inhibitors

Thymidine monophosphate kinase (TMPK) has emerged as an attractive target for developing inhibitors of Mycobacterium tuberculosis growth. In this study the receptor-independent (RI) 4D-QSAR formalism has been used to develop QSAR models and corresponding 3D-pharmacophores for a set of 5`-thiourea-substituted alpha-thymidine inhibitors. Models were developed for the entire training set and for a subset of the training set consisting of the most potent inhibitors. The optimized (RI) 4D-QSAR models are statistically significant (r(2) = 0.90, q(2) = 0.83 entire set, r(2) = 0.86, q(2) = 0.80 high potency subset) and also possess good predictivity based on test set predictions. The most and least potent inhibitors, in their respective postulated active conformations derived from the models, were docked in the active site of the TMPK crystallographic structure. There is a solid consistency between the 3D-pharmacophore sites defined by the QSAR models and interactions with binding site residues. This model identifies new regions of the inhibitors that contain pharmacophore sites, such as the sugar-pyrimidine ring structure and the region of the 5`-arylthiourea moiety. These new regions of the ligands can be further explored and possibly exploited to identify new, novel, and, perhaps, better antituberculosis inhibitors of TMPKmt. Furthermore, the 3D-pharmacophores defined by these models can be used as a starting point for future receptor-dependent antituberculosis drug design as well as to elucidate candidate sites for substituent addition to optimize ADMET properties of analog inhibitors.

Brazilian Network of Food Data Systems and LATINFOODS Regional Technical Compilation Committee: Food composition activities (2006-2009)

The Brazilian Network of Food Data Systems (BRASILFOODS) has been keeping the Brazilian Food Composition Database-USP (TBCA-USP) (http://www.fcf.usp.br/tabela) since 1998. Besides the constant compilation, analysis and update work in the database, the network tries to innovate through the introduction of food information that may contribute to decrease the risk for non-transmissible chronic diseases, such as the profile of carbohydrates and flavonoids in foods. In 2008, data on carbohydrates, individually analyzed, of 112 foods, and 41 data related to the glycemic response produced by foods widely consumed in the country were included in the TBCA-USP. Data (773) about the different flavonoid subclasses of 197 Brazilian foods were compiled and the quality of each data was evaluated according to the USDAs data quality evaluation system. In 2007, BRASILFOODS/USP and INFOODS/FAO organized the 7th International Food Data Conference ""Food Composition and Biodiversity"". This conference was a unique opportunity for interaction between renowned researchers and participants from several countries and it allowed the discussion of aspects that may improve the food composition area. During the period, the LATINFOODS Regional Technical Compilation Committee and BRASILFOODS disseminated to Latin America the Form and Manual for Data Compilation, version 2009, ministered a Food Composition Data Compilation course and developed many activities related to data production and compilation. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Inhibition of immune complex-mediated neutrophil oxidative metabolism: A pharmacophore model for 3-phenylcoumarin derivatives using GRIND-based 3D-QSAR and 2D-QSAR procedures

In this study, twenty hydroxylated and acetoxylated 3-phenylcoumarin derivatives were evaluated as inhibitors of immune complex-stimulated neutrophil oxidative metabolism and possible modulators of the inflammatory tissue damage found in type III hypersensitivity reactions. By using lucigenin- and luminol-enhanced chemiluminescence assays (CL-luc and CL-lum, respectively), we found that the 6,7-dihydroxylated and 6,7-diacetoxylated 3-phenylcoumarin derivatives were the most effective inhibitors. Different structural features of the other compounds determined CL-luc and/or CL-lum inhibition. The 2D-QSAR analysis suggested the importance of hydrophobic contributions to explain these effects. In addition, a statistically significant 3D-QSAR model built applying GRIND descriptors allowed us to propose a virtual receptor site considering pharmacophoric regions and mutual distances. Furthermore, the 3-phenylcoumarins studied were not toxic to neutrophils under the assessed conditions. (C) 2007 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Inflation targeting in emerging economies: What do the data say?

In a recent thought-provoking paper, Ball and Sheridan [Ball, L., Sheridan, N., 2005. Does inflation targeting matter? In: Bernanke, B.S., Woodford, M. (Eds.), The Inflation-Targeting Debate, University of Chicago Press] show that the available evidence for a group of developed economies does not lend credence to the belief that adopting an inflation targeting regime (IT) was instrumental in bringing inflation and inflation volatility down. Here, we extend Ball and Sheridan`s analysis for a subset of 36 emerging market economies and find that, for them, the story is quite different. Compared to non-targeters, developing countries adopting the IT regime not only experienced greater drops in inflation, but also in growth volatility, thus corroborating the view that the regime`s ""constrained flexibility"" to deal with adverse shocks delivered concrete welfare gains. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Complete assignments of (1)H and (13)C NMR spectral data for 7,7 `-dihydroarylnaphthalene lignan lactones

In this article we present a complete (1)H and (13)C NMR spectral analysis of three 7,7`-dihydroarylnaphthalene lignan lactones using modern NMR techniques such as COSY, HSQC, HMBC and NOE experiments. Complete assignment and homonuclear hydrogen coupling constant measurements were performed. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Usefulness of Proteinuria as a Prognostic Marker of Mortality and Cardiovascular Events Among Patients Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention (Data from the Evaluation of Oral Xemilofiban in Controlling Thrombotic Events [EXCITE] Trial)

Proteinuria was associated with cardiovascular events and mortality in community-based cohorts. The association of proteinuria with mortality and cardiovascular events in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) was unknown. The association of urinary dipstick proteinuria with mortality and cardiovascular events (composite of death, myocardial infarction, or nonhemorrhagic stroke) in 5,835 subjects of the EXCITE trial was evaluated. Dipstick urinalysis was performed before PCI, and proteinuria was defined as trace or greater. Subjects were followed up for 210 days/7 months after enrollment for the occurrence of events. Multivariate Cox regression analysis evaluated the independent association of proteinuria with each outcome. Mean age was 59 years, 21% were women, 18% had diabetes mellitus, and mean estimated glomerular filtration rate was 90 ml/min/1.73 m(2). Proteinuria was present in 750 patients (13%). During follow-up, 22 subjects (2.9%) with proteinuria and 54 subjects (1.1%) without proteinuria died (adjusted hazard ratio 2.83, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.65 to 4.84, p <0.001). The severity of proteinuria attenuated the strength of the association with mortality after PCI (low-grade proteinuria, hazard ratio 2.67, 95% CI 1.50 to 4.75; high-grade proteinuria, hazard ratio 3.76, 95% CI 1.24 to 11.37). No significant association was present for cardiovascular events during the relatively short follow-up, but high-grade proteinuria tended toward increased risk of cardiovascular events (hazard ratio 1.45, 95% CI 0.81 to 2.61). In conclusion, proteinuria was strongly and independently associated with mortality in patients undergoing PCI. These data suggest that such a relatively simple and clinically easy to use tool as urinary dipstick may be useful to identify and treat patients at high risk of mortality at the time of PCI. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. (Am J Cardiol 2008;102:1151-1155)