A vaccination game based on public health actions and personal decisions

Susceptible-infective-removed (SIR) models are commonly used for representing the spread of contagious diseases. A SIR model can be described in terms of a probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA), where each individual (corresponding to a cell of the PCA lattice) is connected to others by a random network favoring local contacts. Here, this framework is employed for investigating the consequences of applying vaccine against the propagation of a contagious infection, by considering vaccination as a game, in the sense of game theory. In this game, the players are the government and the susceptible newborns. In order to maximize their own payoffs, the government attempts to reduce the costs for combating the epidemic, and the newborns may be vaccinated only when infective individuals are found in their neighborhoods and/or the government promotes an immunization program. As a consequence of these strategies supported by cost-benefit analysis and perceived risk, numerical simulations show that the disease is not fully eliminated and the government implements quasi-periodic vaccination campaigns. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Thermodynamic modelling of an Al(2)O(3)-MnO system using the ionic model

The thermodynamic assessment of an Al(2)O(3)-MnO pseudo-binary system has been carried out with the use of an ionic model. The use of the electro-neutrality principles in addition to the constitutive relations, between site fractions of the species on each sub-lattice, the thermodynamics descriptions of each solid phase has been determined to make possible the solubility description. Based on the thermodynamics descriptions of each phase in addition to thermo-chemical data obtained from the literature, the Gibbs energy functions were optimized for each phase of the Al(2)O(3)-MnO system with the support of PARROT(R) module from ThemoCalc(R) package. A thermodynamic database was obtained, in agreement with the thermo-chemical data extracted from the literature, to describe the Al(2)O(3)-MnO system including the solubility description of solid phases. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On the use of correlated beta random variables with animal population modelling

We give reasons why demographic parameters such as survival and reproduction rates are often modelled well in stochastic population simulation using beta distributions. In practice, it is frequently expected that these parameters will be correlated, for example with survival rates for all age classes tending to be high or low in the same year. We therefore discuss a method for producing correlated beta random variables by transforming correlated normal random variables, and show how it can be applied in practice by means of a simple example. We also note how the same approach can be used to produce correlated uniform triangular, and exponential random variables. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelling the potential distribution of the invasive tomato red spider mite, Tetranychus evansi (Acari: Tetranychidae)

Predicting the potential geographical distribution of a species is particularly important for pests with strong invasive abilities. Tetranychus evansi Baker & Pritchard, possibly native to South America, is a spider mite pest of solanaceous crops. This mite is considered an invasive species in Africa and Europe. A CLIMEX model was developed to predict its global distribution. The model results fitted the known records of T. evansi except for some records in dry locations. Dryness as well as excess moisture stresses play important roles in limiting the spread of the mite in the tropics. In North America and Eurasia its potential distribution appears to be essentially limited by cold stress. Detailed potential distribution maps are provided for T. evansi in the Mediterranean Basin and in Japan. These two regions correspond to climatic borders for the species. Mite establishment in these areas can be explained by their relatively mild winters. The Mediterranean region is also the main area where tomato is grown in open fields in Europe and where the pest represents a threat. According to the model, the whole Mediterranean region has the potential to be extensively colonized by the mite. Wide expansion of the mite to new areas in Africa is also predicted. Agricultural issues highlighted by the modelled distribution of the pest are discussed.

Parametric and nonparametric statistical modelling of crop yield: implications for pricing crop insurance contracts

This article considers alternative methods to calculate the fair premium rate of crop insurance contracts based on county yields. The premium rate was calculated using parametric and nonparametric approaches to estimate the conditional agricultural yield density. These methods were applied to a data set of county yield provided by the Statistical and Geography Brazilian Institute (IBGE), for the period of 1990 through 2002, for soybean, corn and wheat, in the State of Paran. In this article, we propose methodological alternatives to pricing crop insurance contracts resulting in more accurate premium rates in a situation of limited data.

Modelling the progress of Asiatic citrus canker on Tahiti lime in relation to temperature and leaf wetness

The combined effect of temperature (15A degrees C, 20A degrees C, 25A degrees C, 30A degrees C, 35A degrees C, 40A degrees C and 42A degrees C) and leaf wetness duration (0, 4, 8 12, 16, 20 and 24 h) on infection and development of Asiatic citrus canker (Xanthomonas citri subsp. citri) on Tahiti lime plant was examined in growth chambers. No disease developed at 42A degrees C and zero hours of leaf wetness. Periods of leaf wetness as short as 4 h were sufficient for citrus canker infection. However, a longer leaf duration wetness (24 h) did not result in much increase in the incidence of citrus canker, but led to twice the number of lesions and four times the disease severity. Temperature was the greatest factor influencing disease development. At optimum temperatures (25-35A degrees C), there was 100% disease incidence. Maximum disease development was observed at 30-35A degrees C, with up to a 12-fold increase in lesion density, a 10-fold increase in lesion size and a 60-fold increase in disease severity.

Cloning, expression, molecular modelling and docking analysis of glutathione transferase from Saccharum officinarum

Sugarcane yield and quality are affected by a number of biotic and abiotic stresses. In response to such stresses, plants may increase the activities of some enzymes such as glutathione transferase (GST), which are involved in the detoxification of xenobiotics. Thus, a sugarcane GST was modelled and molecular docked using the program LIGIN to investigate the contributions of the active site residues towards the binding of reduced glutathione (GSH) and 1-chloro-2,4-dinitrobenzene (CDNB). As a result, W13 and I119 were identified as key residues for the specificity of sugarcane GSTF1 (SoGSTF1) towards CDNB. To obtain a better understanding of the catalytic specificity of sugarcane GST (SoGSTF1), two mutants were designed, W13L and I119F. Tertiary structure models and the same docking procedure were performed to explain the interactions between sugarcane GSTs with GSH and CDNB. An electron-sharing network for GSH interaction was also proposed. The SoGSTF1 and the mutated gene constructions were cloned and expressed in Escherichia coli and the expressed protein purified. Kinetic analyses revealed different Km values not only for CDNB, but also for GSH. The Km values were 0.2, 1.3 and 0.3 mM for GSH, and 0.9, 1.2 and 0.5 mM for CDNB, for the wild type, W13L mutant and I119F mutant, respectively. The V(max) values were 297.6, 224.5 and 171.8 mu mol min(-1) mg(-1) protein for GSH, and 372.3, 170.6 and 160.4 mu mol min(-1) mg(-1) protein for CDNB.

Computer-aided drug design and ADMET predictions for identification and evaluation of novel potential farnesyltransferase inhibitors in cancer therapy

We have used various computational methodologies including molecular dynamics, density functional theory, virtual screening, ADMET predictions and molecular interaction field studies to design and analyze four novel potential inhibitors of farnesyltransferase (FTase). Evaluation of two proposals regarding their drug potential as well as lead compounds have indicated them as novel promising FTase inhibitors, with theoretically interesting pharmacotherapeutic profiles, when Compared to the very active and most cited FTase inhibitors that have activity data reported, which are launched drugs or compounds in clinical tests. One of our two proposals appears to be a more promising drug candidate and FTase inhibitor, but both derivative molecules indicate potentially very good pharmacotherapeutic profiles in comparison with Tipifarnib and Lonafarnib, two reference pharmaceuticals. Two other proposals have been selected with virtual screening approaches and investigated by LIS, which suggest novel and alternatives scaffolds to design future potential FTase inhibitors. Such compounds can be explored as promising molecules to initiate a research protocol in order to discover novel anticancer drug candidates targeting farnesyltransferase, in the fight against cancer. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Influence of Plasma Protein Binding on Pharmacodynamics: Estimation of In Vivo Receptor Affinities of beta Blockers Using a New Mechanism-Based PK-PD Modelling Approach

The objective of this investigation was to examine in a systematic manner the influence of plasma protein binding on in vivo pharmacodynamics. Comparative pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic studies with four beta blockers were performed in conscious rats, using heart rate under isoprenaline-induced tachycardia as a pharmacodynamic endpoint. A recently proposed mechanism-based agonist-antagonist interaction model was used to obtain in vivo estimates of receptor affinities (K(B),(vivo)). These values were compared with in vitro affinities (K(B),(vitro)) on the basis of both total and free drug concentrations. For the total drug concentrations, the K(B),(vivo) estimates were 26, 13, 6.5 and 0.89 nM for S(-)-atenolol, S(-)-propranolol, S(-)-metoprolol and timolol. The K(B),(vivo) estimates on the basis of the free concentrations were 25, 2.0, 5.2 and 0.56 nM, respectively. The K(B),(vivo)-K(B),(vitro) correlation for total drug concentrations clearly deviated from the line of identity, especially for the most highly bound drug S(-)-propranolol (ratio K(B),(vivo)/K(B),(vitro) similar to 6.8). For the free drug, the correlation approximated the line of identity. Using this model, for beta-blockers the free plasma concentration appears to be the best predictor of in vivo pharmacodynamics. (C) 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc. and the American Pharmacists Association J Pharm Sci 98:3816-3828, 2009

IB Theory and the Entry of MNCs in Brazil from 1850 to 2007

This paper analyses the applicability of the main enterprise internationalization theories to the entry of the multinational corporations into Brazil, throughout five phases of Brazilian economy, from 1850 to nowadays. It seeks to verify the explanation power of each theory over the FDI flows in Brazil. It concludes that there is a contingency relation between the theories and the phases of the economy, and. it shows such relationship in a table. In addition, it concludes that the most powerful theory along the researched period was Dunning`s eclectic paradigm, mainly due to the Localization considerations. Theoretical propositions are put forward as a contribution to future research.

Stakeholders Theory and Theory of the Firm: a study on the hierarchy of objective-functions in Brazilian companies

Discussion opposing the Theory of the Firm to the Theory of Stakeholders are contemporaneous and polemical. One focal point of such debates refers to which objective-function companies, should choose, whether that of the shareholders or that of the stakeholders, and whether it is possible to opt for both simultaneously. Several empirical studies. have attempted-to test a possible correlation between both functions, and there has not been any consensus-so far. The objective of the present research is to examine a gap in such discussions: is there (or not) a subordination of the stakeholders` objective-function to that of the shareholders? The research is empirical,and analytical and employs quantitative methods. Hypotheses were tested and data analyzed by using non-parametrical (chi-square test) and parametrical procedures (frequency. correlation `coefficient). Secondary data was collected from he Economitica database and from the Brazilian Institute of Social and-Economic Analyses (IBASE) website, relative to public companies that have published their Social Balance Statements following the IBASE model from 1999 to 2006, whose sample amounted to 65 companies; In order to assess the objective-function of shareholders a proxy was created based on the following three indices: ROE (return on equity), EnterpriseValue and Tobin`s Q. In order to assess the objective-function of stakeholders a proxy was created by employing the following IBASE social balance indices: internal ones (ISI), external ones (ISE), and environmental ones (IAM). The results have shown no evidence of subordination of stakeholders` objective-function to that of the shareholders in analyzed companies, negating initial expectations and calling for deeper investigation of results. Its main conclusion, which states that the attempted subordination does not take place, is limited to the sample herein investigated and calls for ongoing research aiming at improvements which may lead to sample enlargement and, as a consequence, may make feasible the application of other statistical techniques which may yield a more thorough, analysis of the studied phenomehon.

On recent developments in the theory of abstract differential equations with fractional derivatives

This note is motivated from some recent papers treating the problem of the existence of a solution for abstract differential equations with fractional derivatives. We show that the existence results in [Agarwal et al. (2009) [1], Belmekki and Benchohra (2010) [2], Darwish et al. (2009) [3], Hu et al. (2009) [4], Mophou and N`Guerekata (2009) [6,7], Mophou (2010) [8,9], Muslim (2009) [10], Pandey et al. (2009) [11], Rashid and El-Qaderi (2009) [12] and Tai and Wang (2009) [13]] are incorrect since the considered variation of constant formulas is not appropriate. In this note, we also consider a different approach to treat a general class of abstract fractional differential equations. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Existence results for a damped second order abstract functional differential equation with impulses

In this work we study the existence and regularity of mild solutions for a damped second order abstract functional differential equation with impulses. The results are obtained using the cosine function theory and fixed point criterions. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling congenital transmission of Chagas` disease

The successful elimination of vectorial and transfusional transmission of Chagas` disease from some countries is a result of the reduction of domestic density of the primary vector Triatoma infestans, of almost 100% of coverage in blood serological selection and to the fact that the basic reproductive number of Chagas` disease is very close to one (1.25). Therefore, congenital transmission is currently the only way of acquiring Chagas` Disease in such regions. In this paper we propose a model of congenital transmission of Chagas` disease. Its aim is to provide an estimation of the time period it will take to eliminate this form of transmission in regions where vetorial transmission was reduced to close to zero, like in Brazil. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

ADHD in a representative sample of the Brazilian population: estimated prevalence and comparative adequacy of criteria between adolescents and adults according to the item response theory

Background: Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is a clinically significant disorder in adulthood, but current diagnostic criteria and instruments do not seem to adequately capture the complexity of the disorder in this developmental phase. Accordingly, there are limited data on the proportion of adults affected by the disorder, specially in developing countries. Method: We assessed a representative household sample of the Brazilian population for ADHD with the Adult ADHD Self-report Scale (ASRS) Screener, and evaluated the instrument according to the Rasch model of item response theory. Results: The sample was comprised by 3007 individuals, and the overal prevalence of positive screeners for ADHD was 5.8% [95% confidence interval (CI), 4.8-7.0]. Rasch analyses revealed the misfitt of the overall sample to expectations of the model. The evaluation of the sample stratified by age revealed that data for adolescents showed a signficant fittnes to the model expectations, while items completed by adults were not adequated. Conclusions: The lack of fitness to the model for adult respondents challenges the possibility of a linear transformation of the ordinal data into interval measures and the utilization of parametric analyses of data. This result suggests that diagnostic criteria and instruments for adult ADHD must take into account a developmental perspective. Moreover, it calls for further evaluation of currently employed research methods in light of modern theories of psychometrics. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.