261 resultados para systems modeling
Resumo:
Background: An evaluation of patients' preferences is necessary to understand the demand for different insulin delivery systems. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between socioeconomic status (SES) and patients' preferences and willingness to pay (WTP) for various attributes of insulin administration for diabetes management. Methods: We conducted a discrete choice experiment (DCE) to determine patients' preferences and their WTP for hypothetical insulin treatments. Both self-reported annual household income and education completed were used to explore differences in treatment preferences and WTP for different attributes of treatment across different levels of SES. Results: The DCE questionnaire was successfully completed by 274 patients. Overall, glucose control was the most valued attribute by all socioeconomic groups, while route of insulin delivery was not as important. Patients with higher incomes were willing to pay significantly more for better glucose control and to avoid adverse events compared to lower income groups. In addition, they were willing to pay more for an oral short-acting insulin ($Can 71.65 [95% confidence interval, $40.68, $102.62]) compared to the low income group ($Can 9.85 [95% confidence interval, 14.86, 34.56; P < 0.01]). Conversely, there were no differences in preferences when the sample was stratified by level of education. Conclusions: This study revealed that preferences and WTP for insulin therapy are influenced by income but not by level of education. Specifically, the higher the income, the greater desire for an oral insulin delivery system, whereas an inhaled route becomes less important for patients.
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Consider N sites randomly and uniformly distributed in a d-dimensional hypercube. A walker explores this disordered medium going to the nearest site, which has not been visited in the last mu (memory) steps. The walker trajectory is composed of a transient part and a periodic part (cycle). For one-dimensional systems, travelers can or cannot explore all available space, giving rise to a crossover between localized and extended regimes at the critical memory mu(1) = log(2) N. The deterministic rule can be softened to consider more realistic situations with the inclusion of a stochastic parameter T (temperature). In this case, the walker movement is driven by a probability density function parameterized by T and a cost function. The cost function increases as the distance between two sites and favors hops to closer sites. As the temperature increases, the walker can escape from cycles that are reminiscent of the deterministic nature and extend the exploration. Here, we report an analytical model and numerical studies of the influence of the temperature and the critical memory in the exploration of one-dimensional disordered systems.
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Background: Malaria is an important threat to travelers visiting endemic regions. The risk of acquiring malaria is complex and a number of factors including transmission intensity, duration of exposure, season of the year and use of chemoprophylaxis have to be taken into account estimating risk. Materials and methods: A mathematical model was developed to estimate the risk of non-immune individual acquiring falciparum malaria when traveling to the Amazon region of Brazil. The risk of malaria infection to travelers was calculated as a function of duration of exposure and season of arrival. Results: The results suggest significant variation of risk for non-immune travelers depending on arrival season, duration of the visit and transmission intensity. The calculated risk for visitors staying longer than 4 months during peak transmission was 0.5% per visit. Conclusions: Risk estimates based on mathematical modeling based on accurate data can be a valuable tool in assessing risk/benefits and cost/benefits when deciding on the value of interventions for travelers to malaria endemic regions.
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Background: High-density tiling arrays and new sequencing technologies are generating rapidly increasing volumes of transcriptome and protein-DNA interaction data. Visualization and exploration of this data is critical to understanding the regulatory logic encoded in the genome by which the cell dynamically affects its physiology and interacts with its environment. Results: The Gaggle Genome Browser is a cross-platform desktop program for interactively visualizing high-throughput data in the context of the genome. Important features include dynamic panning and zooming, keyword search and open interoperability through the Gaggle framework. Users may bookmark locations on the genome with descriptive annotations and share these bookmarks with other users. The program handles large sets of user-generated data using an in-process database and leverages the facilities of SQL and the R environment for importing and manipulating data. A key aspect of the Gaggle Genome Browser is interoperability. By connecting to the Gaggle framework, the genome browser joins a suite of interconnected bioinformatics tools for analysis and visualization with connectivity to major public repositories of sequences, interactions and pathways. To this flexible environment for exploring and combining data, the Gaggle Genome Browser adds the ability to visualize diverse types of data in relation to its coordinates on the genome. Conclusions: Genomic coordinates function as a common key by which disparate biological data types can be related to one another. In the Gaggle Genome Browser, heterogeneous data are joined by their location on the genome to create information-rich visualizations yielding insight into genome organization, transcription and its regulation and, ultimately, a better understanding of the mechanisms that enable the cell to dynamically respond to its environment.
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We introduce the Coupled Aerosol and Tracer Transport model to the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (CATT-BRAMS). CATT-BRAMS is an on-line transport model fully consistent with the simulated atmospheric dynamics. Emission sources from biomass burning and urban-industrial-vehicular activities for trace gases and from biomass burning aerosol particles are obtained from several published datasets and remote sensing information. The tracer and aerosol mass concentration prognostics include the effects of sub-grid scale turbulence in the planetary boundary layer, convective transport by shallow and deep moist convection, wet and dry deposition, and plume rise associated with vegetation fires in addition to the grid scale transport. The radiation parameterization takes into account the interaction between the simulated biomass burning aerosol particles and short and long wave radiation. The atmospheric model BRAMS is based on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), with several improvements associated with cumulus convection representation, soil moisture initialization and surface scheme tuned for the tropics, among others. In this paper the CATT-BRAMS model is used to simulate carbon monoxide and particulate material (PM(2.5)) surface fluxes and atmospheric transport during the 2002 LBA field campaigns, conducted during the transition from the dry to wet season in the southwest Amazon Basin. Model evaluation is addressed with comparisons between model results and near surface, radiosondes and airborne measurements performed during the field campaign, as well as remote sensing derived products. We show the matching of emissions strengths to observed carbon monoxide in the LBA campaign. A relatively good comparison to the MOPITT data, in spite of the fact that MOPITT a priori assumptions imply several difficulties, is also obtained.
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Doppler images in Balmer, He I, He II and C II lines, and simultaneous I-band photometry of the polar MR Ser are presented and analyzed. The Balmer and Helium Doppler tomograms, of this bright polar at high mass transfer state show the emission from the accretion flow and the heated surface of the companion star. As a result of a comparison between the Doppler tomograms, the ionization structure of the flow could be constrained. The highest ionization region was found in the vicinity of the magnetospheric radius. Photoionization modeling of the accretion column indicates that the Balmer and Helium emission line production in this system can be explained only by the central soft X-ray illumination. The orbital ephemeris of MR Ser has been revised.
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We report the discovery of a tight substellar companion to the young solar analog PZ Tel, a member of the beta Pic moving group observed with high-contrast adaptive optics imaging as part of the Gemini Near-Infrared Coronagraphic Imager Planet-Finding Campaign. The companion was detected at a projected separation of 16.4 +/- 1.0 AU (0.'' 33 +/- 0.'' 01) in 2009 April. Second-epoch observations in 2010 May demonstrate that the companion is physically associated and shows significant orbital motion. Monte Carlo modeling constrains the orbit of PZ Tel B to eccentricities >0.6. The near-IR colors of PZ Tel B indicate a spectral type of M7 +/- 2 and thus this object will be a new benchmark companion for studies of ultracool, low-gravity photospheres. Adopting an age of 12(-4)(+8) Myr for the system, we estimate a mass of 36 +/- 6 M(Jup) based on the Lyon/DUSTY evolutionary models. PZ Tel B is one of the few young substellar companions directly imaged at orbital separations similar to those of giant planets in our own solar system. Additionally, the primary star PZ Tel A shows a 70 mu m emission excess, evidence for a significant quantity of circumstellar dust that has not been disrupted by the orbital motion of the companion.
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Context. It was proposed earlier that the relativistic ejections observed in microquasars could be produced by violent magnetic reconnection episodes at the inner disk coronal region (de Gouveia Dal Pino & Lazarian 2005). Aims. Here we revisit this model, which employs a standard accretion disk description and fast magnetic reconnection theory, and discuss the role of magnetic reconnection and associated heating and particle acceleration in different jet/disk accretion systems, namely young stellar objects (YSOs), microquasars, and active galactic nuclei (AGNs). Methods. In microquasars and AGNs, violent reconnection episodes between the magnetic field lines of the inner disk region and those that are anchored in the black hole are able to heat the coronal/disk gas and accelerate the plasma to relativistic velocities through a diffusive first-order Fermi-like process within the reconnection site that will produce intermittent relativistic ejections or plasmons. Results. The resulting power-law electron distribution is compatible with the synchrotron radio spectrum observed during the outbursts of these sources. A diagram of the magnetic energy rate released by violent reconnection as a function of the black hole (BH) mass spanning 10(9) orders of magnitude shows that the magnetic reconnection power is more than sufficient to explain the observed radio luminosities of the outbursts from microquasars to low luminous AGNs. In addition, the magnetic reconnection events cause the heating of the coronal gas, which can be conducted back to the disk to enhance its thermal soft X-ray emission as observed during outbursts in microquasars. The decay of the hard X-ray emission right after a radio flare could also be explained in this model due to the escape of relativistic electrons with the evolving jet outburst. In the case of YSOs a similar magnetic configuration can be reached that could possibly produce observed X-ray flares in some sources and provide the heating at the jet launching base, but only if violent magnetic reconnection events occur with episodic, very short-duration accretion rates which are similar to 100-1000 times larger than the typical average accretion rates expected for more evolved (T Tauri) YSOs.
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In geophysics and seismology, raw data need to be processed to generate useful information that can be turned into knowledge by researchers. The number of sensors that are acquiring raw data is increasing rapidly. Without good data management systems, more time can be spent in querying and preparing datasets for analyses than in acquiring raw data. Also, a lot of good quality data acquired at great effort can be lost forever if they are not correctly stored. Local and international cooperation will probably be reduced, and a lot of data will never become scientific knowledge. For this reason, the Seismological Laboratory of the Institute of Astronomy, Geophysics and Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Sao Paulo (IAG-USP) has concentrated fully on its data management system. This report describes the efforts of the IAG-USP to set up a seismology data management system to facilitate local and international cooperation.
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We study the existence of positive solutions of Hamiltonian-type systems of second-order elliptic PDE in the whole space. The systems depend on a small parameter and involve a potential having a global well structure. We use dual variational methods, a mountain-pass type approach and Fourier analysis to prove positive solutions exist for sufficiently small values of the parameter.
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This paper studies semistability of the recursive Kalman filter in the context of linear time-varying (LTV), possibly nondetectable systems with incorrect noise information. Semistability is a key property, as it ensures that the actual estimation error does not diverge exponentially. We explore structural properties of the filter to obtain a necessary and sufficient condition for the filter to be semistable. The condition does not involve limiting gains nor the solution of Riccati equations, as they can be difficult to obtain numerically and may not exist. We also compare semistability with the notions of stability and stability w.r.t. the initial error covariance, and we show that semistability in a sense makes no distinction between persistent and nonpersistent incorrect noise models, as opposed to stability. In the linear time invariant scenario we obtain algebraic, easy to test conditions for semistability and stability, which complement results available in the context of detectable systems. Illustrative examples are included.
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This paper studies a nonlinear, discrete-time matrix system arising in the stability analysis of Kalman filters. These systems present an internal coupling between the state components that gives rise to complex dynamic behavior. The problem of partial stability, which requires that a specific component of the state of the system converge exponentially, is studied and solved. The convergent state component is strongly linked with the behavior of Kalman filters, since it can be used to provide bounds for the error covariance matrix under uncertainties in the noise measurements. We exploit the special features of the system-mainly the connections with linear systems-to obtain an algebraic test for partial stability. Finally, motivated by applications in which polynomial divergence of the estimates is acceptable, we study and solve a partial semistability problem.
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This article evaluates social implications of the ""SIGA"" Health Care Information System (HIS) in a public health care organization in the city of Sao Paulo. The evaluation was performed by means of an in-depth case study with patients and staff of a public health care organization, using qualitative and quantitative data. On the one hand, the system had consequences perceived as positive such as improved convenience and democratization of specialized treatment for patients and improvements in work organization. On the other hand, negative outcomes were reported, like difficulties faced by employees due to little familiarity with IT and an increase in the time needed to schedule appointments. Results show the ambiguity of the implications of HIS in developing countries, emphasizing the need for a more nuanced view of the evaluation of failures and successes and the importance of social contextual factors.
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We describe an estimation technique for biomass burning emissions in South America based on a combination of remote-sensing fire products and field observations, the Brazilian Biomass Burning Emission Model (3BEM). For each fire pixel detected by remote sensing, the mass of the emitted tracer is calculated based on field observations of fire properties related to the type of vegetation burning. The burnt area is estimated from the instantaneous fire size retrieved by remote sensing, when available, or from statistical properties of the burn scars. The sources are then spatially and temporally distributed and assimilated daily by the Coupled Aerosol and Tracer Transport model to the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (CATT-BRAMS) in order to perform the prognosis of related tracer concentrations. Three other biomass burning inventories, including GFEDv2 and EDGAR, are simultaneously used to compare the emission strength in terms of the resultant tracer distribution. We also assess the effect of using the daily time resolution of fire emissions by including runs with monthly-averaged emissions. We evaluate the performance of the model using the different emission estimation techniques by comparing the model results with direct measurements of carbon monoxide both near-surface and airborne, as well as remote sensing derived products. The model results obtained using the 3BEM methodology of estimation introduced in this paper show relatively good agreement with the direct measurements and MOPITT data product, suggesting the reliability of the model at local to regional scales.
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Atmospheric aerosol particles serving as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) are key elements of the hydrological cycle and climate. We have measured and characterized CCN at water vapor supersaturations in the range of S=0.10-0.82% in pristine tropical rainforest air during the AMAZE-08 campaign in central Amazonia. The effective hygroscopicity parameters describing the influence of chemical composition on the CCN activity of aerosol particles varied in the range of kappa approximate to 0.1-0.4 (0.16+/-0.06 arithmetic mean and standard deviation). The overall median value of kappa approximate to 0.15 was by a factor of two lower than the values typically observed for continental aerosols in other regions of the world. Aitken mode particles were less hygroscopic than accumulation mode particles (kappa approximate to 0.1 at D approximate to 50 nm; kappa approximate to 0.2 at D approximate to 200 nm), which is in agreement with earlier hygroscopicity tandem differential mobility analyzer (H-TDMA) studies. The CCN measurement results are consistent with aerosol mass spectrometry (AMS) data, showing that the organic mass fraction (f(org)) was on average as high as similar to 90% in the Aitken mode (D <= 100 nm) and decreased with increasing particle diameter in the accumulation mode (similar to 80% at D approximate to 200 nm). The kappa values exhibited a negative linear correlation with f(org) (R(2)=0.81), and extrapolation yielded the following effective hygroscopicity parameters for organic and inorganic particle components: kappa(org)approximate to 0.1 which can be regarded as the effective hygroscopicity of biogenic secondary organic aerosol (SOA) and kappa(inorg)approximate to 0.6 which is characteristic for ammonium sulfate and related salts. Both the size dependence and the temporal variability of effective particle hygroscopicity could be parameterized as a function of AMS-based organic and inorganic mass fractions (kappa(p)=kappa(org) x f(org)+kappa(inorg) x f(inorg)). The CCN number concentrations predicted with kappa(p) were in fair agreement with the measurement results (similar to 20% average deviation). The median CCN number concentrations at S=0.1-0.82% ranged from N(CCN,0.10)approximate to 35 cm(-3) to N(CCN,0.82)approximate to 160 cm(-3), the median concentration of aerosol particles larger than 30 nm was N(CN,30)approximate to 200 cm(-3), and the corresponding integral CCN efficiencies were in the range of N(CCN,0.10/NCN,30)approximate to 0.1 to N(CCN,0.82/NCN,30)approximate to 0.8. Although the number concentrations and hygroscopicity parameters were much lower in pristine rainforest air, the integral CCN efficiencies observed were similar to those in highly polluted megacity air. Moreover, model calculations of N(CCN,S) assuming an approximate global average value of kappa approximate to 0.3 for continental aerosols led to systematic overpredictions, but the average deviations exceeded similar to 50% only at low water vapor supersaturation (0.1%) and low particle number concentrations (<= 100 cm(-3)). Model calculations assuming aconstant aerosol size distribution led to higher average deviations at all investigated levels of supersaturation: similar to 60% for the campaign average distribution and similar to 1600% for a generic remote continental size distribution. These findings confirm earlier studies suggesting that aerosol particle number and size are the major predictors for the variability of the CCN concentration in continental boundary layer air, followed by particle composition and hygroscopicity as relatively minor modulators. Depending on the required and applicable level of detail, the information and parameterizations presented in this paper should enable efficient description of the CCN properties of pristine tropical rainforest aerosols of Amazonia in detailed process models as well as in large-scale atmospheric and climate models.