The Effect of Spatial Scale on Predicting Time Series: A Study on Epidemiological System Identification

A susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) epidemiological model based on probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA) is employed for simulating the temporal evolution of the registered cases of chickenpox in Arizona, USA, between 1994 and 2004. At each time step, every individual is in one of the states S, I, or R. The parameters of this model are the probabilities of each individual (each cell forming the PCA lattice ) passing from a state to another state. Here, the values of these probabilities are identified by using a genetic algorithm. If nonrealistic values are allowed to the parameters, the predictions present better agreement with the historical series than if they are forced to present realistic values. A discussion about how the size of the PCA lattice affects the quality of the model predictions is presented. Copyright (C) 2009 L. H. A. Monteiro et al.

System Identification and Prediction of Dengue Fever Incidence in Rio de Janeiro

Identification, prediction, and control of a system are engineering subjects, regardless of the nature of the system. Here, the temporal evolution of the number of individuals with dengue fever weekly recorded in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, during 2007, is used to identify SIS (susceptible-infective-susceptible) and SIR (susceptible-infective-removed) models formulated in terms of cellular automaton (CA). In the identification process, a genetic algorithm (GA) is utilized to find the probabilities of the state transition S -> I able of reproducing in the CA lattice the historical series of 2007. These probabilities depend on the number of infective neighbors. Time-varying and non-time-varying probabilities, three different sizes of lattices, and two kinds of coupling topology among the cells are taken into consideration. Then, these epidemiological models built by combining CA and GA are employed for predicting the cases of sick persons in 2008. Such models can be useful for forecasting and controlling the spreading of this infectious disease.

Convergence of developmental mutants into a single tomato model system: 'Micro-Tom' as an effective toolkit for plant development research

Background: The tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) plant is both an economically important food crop and an ideal dicot model to investigate various physiological phenomena not possible in Arabidopsis thaliana. Due to the great diversity of tomato cultivars used by the research community, it is often difficult to reliably compare phenotypes. The lack of tomato developmental mutants in a single genetic background prevents the stacking of mutations to facilitate analysis of double and multiple mutants, often required for elucidating developmental pathways. Results: We took advantage of the small size and rapid life cycle of the tomato cultivar Micro-Tom (MT) to create near-isogenic lines (NILs) by introgressing a suite of hormonal and photomorphogenetic mutations (altered sensitivity or endogenous levels of auxin, ethylene, abscisic acid, gibberellin, brassinosteroid, and light response) into this genetic background. To demonstrate the usefulness of this collection, we compared developmental traits between the produced NILs. All expected mutant phenotypes were expressed in the NILs. We also created NILs harboring the wild type alleles for dwarf, self-pruning and uniform fruit, which are mutations characteristic of MT. This amplified both the applications of the mutant collection presented here and of MT as a genetic model system. Conclusions: The community resource presented here is a useful toolkit for plant research, particularly for future studies in plant development, which will require the simultaneous observation of the effect of various hormones, signaling pathways and crosstalk.

DESCRIPTION OF THE MALE REPRODUCTIVE SYSTEM OF THE HERMIT CRAB CALCINUS TIBICEN (DECAPODA: ANOMURA: DIOGENIDAE)

We describe the male reproductive system of the intertidal hermit crab Calcinus tihicen, with emphasis on the sexual apparatus, spermatophore, and spermatozoa. The crabs were collected on the rocky shore of Praia Grande Beach, Ubatuba, southeastern Brazil. The morphological analysis, based on 30 specimens, was made with the use of a stereomicroscope, an optical microscope, and scanning and transmission electron microscopes. The male reproductive system is composed of a pair of juxtaposed testes, located dorsally in the pleon. From each testis emerges a vas deferens that links it to the exterior by the gonopores. located on the base of the fifth pair of pereiopods. The vas deferens has three macroscopically distinct regions that contain spermatophores in different stages of maturation. The spermatophore morphology is similar to that of other members of Paguroidea, having a distal, nearly spherical ampulla containing spermatozoa; an approximately cylindrical peduncle and a proximal foot connecting the spermatophores. We describe, for the first time, the variability in the spermatophore morphology and size in the three regions of the vas deferens using the type species of the genus Calcinus. The spermatozoa have three main regions (the acrosomal vesicle, the nucleus, and the cytoplasm). The morphological similarity of the male reproductive system of C. tihicen with previously studied species of Diogenidae is an indicative of complex phylogenetic relationships among the members of the genus.

Preliminary biocompatibility investigation of magnetic albumin nanosphere designed as a potential versatile drug delivery system

Background: The magnetic albumin nanosphere (MAN), encapsulating maghemite nanoparticles, was designed as a magnetic drug delivery system (MDDS) able to perform a variety of biomedical applications. It is noteworthy that MAN was efficient in treating Ehrlich's tumors by the magnetohyperthermia procedure. Methods and materials: In this study, several nanotoxicity tests were systematically carried out in mice from 30 minutes until 30 days after MAN injection to investigate their biocompatibility status. Cytometry analysis, viability tests, micronucleus assay, and histological analysis were performed. Results: Cytometry analysis and viability tests revealed MAN promotes only slight and temporary alterations in the frequency of both leukocyte populations and viable peritoneal cells, respectively. Micronucleus assay showed absolutely no genotoxicity or cytotoxicity effects and histological analysis showed no alterations or even nanoparticle clusters in several investigated organs but, interestingly, revealed the presence of MAN clusters in the central nervous system (CNS). Conclusion: The results showed that MAN has desirable in vivo biocompatibility, presenting potential for use as a MDDS, especially in CNS disease therapy.

Investigation of a magnetohyperthermia system efficacy

This study reports on the successful use of magnetic albumin nanosphere (MAN) with in vivo magnetohyperthermia (MHT) in a mouse Ehrlich tumor. Maghemite nanoparticles (8.9 nm average diameter) were encapsulated within MAN (73.0 nm average diameter). Ehrlich tumor obtained after implantation of tumor cells in the subcutaneous tissue of mice was used as a model throughout this study. MHT was performed with MAN (40 mu L) containing 1.2 x 10(15) particle/mL and 40 Oe amplitude ac magnetic field oscillating at 1 MHz. Animals not treated, treated with MAN, or exposed to the ac field were used as controls. Histopathological analysis was carried out after 2, 5, or 11 days of tumor implantation. We found that the MHT most efficient condition was obtained while applying the ac field protocol twice a day during three consecutive days. Further, in this ac field-treated group no proliferation cells were detected. (C) 2011 American Institute of Physics. [doi: 10.1063/1.3559498]

ProbFAST: Probabilistic Functional Analysis System Tool

Background: The post-genomic era has brought new challenges regarding the understanding of the organization and function of the human genome. Many of these challenges are centered on the meaning of differential gene regulation under distinct biological conditions and can be performed by analyzing the Multiple Differential Expression (MDE) of genes associated with normal and abnormal biological processes. Currently MDE analyses are limited to usual methods of differential expression initially designed for paired analysis. Results: We proposed a web platform named ProbFAST for MDE analysis which uses Bayesian inference to identify key genes that are intuitively prioritized by means of probabilities. A simulated study revealed that our method gives a better performance when compared to other approaches and when applied to public expression data, we demonstrated its flexibility to obtain relevant genes biologically associated with normal and abnormal biological processes. Conclusions: ProbFAST is a free accessible web-based application that enables MDE analysis on a global scale. It offers an efficient methodological approach for MDE analysis of a set of genes that are turned on and off related to functional information during the evolution of a tumor or tissue differentiation. ProbFAST server can be accessed at http://gdm.fmrp.usp.br/probfast.

Beam-energy and system-size dependence of dynamical net charge fluctuations

We present measurements of net charge fluctuations in Au+Au collisions at s(NN)=19.6, 62.4, 130, and 200 GeV, Cu+Cu collisions at s(NN)=62.4 and 200 GeV, and p+p collisions at s=200 GeV using the dynamical net charge fluctuations measure nu(+-,dyn). We observe that the dynamical fluctuations are nonzero at all energies and exhibit a modest dependence on beam energy. A weak system size dependence is also observed. We examine the collision centrality dependence of the net charge fluctuations and find that dynamical net charge fluctuations violate 1/N(ch) scaling but display approximate 1/N(part) scaling. We also study the azimuthal and rapidity dependence of the net charge correlation strength and observe strong dependence on the azimuthal angular range and pseudorapidity widths integrated to measure the correlation.

System-Size Independence of Directed Flow Measured at the BNL Relativistic Heavy-Ion Collider

We measure directed flow (v(1)) for charged particles in Au + Au and Cu + Cu collisions at root s(NN) = 200 and 62.4 GeV, as a function of pseudorapidity (eta), transverse momentum (p(t)), and collision centrality, based on data from the STAR experiment. We find that the directed flow depends on the incident energy but, contrary to all available model implementations, not on the size of the colliding system at a given centrality. We extend the validity of the limiting fragmentation concept to v(1) in different collision systems, and investigate possible explanations for the observed sign change in v(1)(p(t)).

Decision theory applied to image quality control in radiology

Background: The present work aims at the application of the decision theory to radiological image quality control ( QC) in diagnostic routine. The main problem addressed in the framework of decision theory is to accept or reject a film lot of a radiology service. The probability of each decision of a determined set of variables was obtained from the selected films. Methods: Based on a radiology service routine a decision probability function was determined for each considered group of combination characteristics. These characteristics were related to the film quality control. These parameters were also framed in a set of 8 possibilities, resulting in 256 possible decision rules. In order to determine a general utility application function to access the decision risk, we have used a simple unique parameter called r. The payoffs chosen were: diagnostic's result (correct/incorrect), cost (high/low), and patient satisfaction (yes/no) resulting in eight possible combinations. Results: Depending on the value of r, more or less risk will occur related to the decision-making. The utility function was evaluated in order to determine the probability of a decision. The decision was made with patients or administrators' opinions from a radiology service center. Conclusion: The model is a formal quantitative approach to make a decision related to the medical imaging quality, providing an instrument to discriminate what is really necessary to accept or reject a film or a film lot. The method presented herein can help to access the risk level of an incorrect radiological diagnosis decision.

Selective Decrease of Components of the Creatine Kinase System and ATP Synthase Complex in Chronic Chagas Disease Cardiomyopathy

Background: Chronic Chagas disease cardiomyopathy (CCC) is an inflammatory dilated cardiomyopathy with a worse prognosis than other cardiomyopathies. CCC occurs in 30 % of individuals infected with Trypanosoma cruzi, endemic in Latin America. Heart failure is associated with impaired energy metabolism, which may be correlated to contractile dysfunction. We thus analyzed the myocardial gene and protein expression, as well as activity, of key mitochondrial enzymes related to ATP production, in myocardial samples of end-stage CCC, idiopathic dilated (IDC) and ischemic (IC) cardiomyopathies. Methodology/Principal Findings: Myocardium homogenates from CCC (N = 5), IC (N = 5) and IDC (N = 5) patients, as well as from heart donors (N = 5) were analyzed for protein and mRNA expression of mitochondrial creatine kinase (CKMit) and muscular creatine kinase (CKM) and ATP synthase subunits aplha and beta by immunoblotting and by real-time RT-PCR. Total myocardial CK activity was also assessed. Protein levels of CKM and CK activity were reduced in all three cardiomyopathy groups. However, total CK activity, as well as ATP synthase alpha chain protein levels, were significantly lower in CCC samples than IC and IDC samples. CCC myocardium displayed selective reduction of protein levels and activity of enzymes crucial for maintaining cytoplasmic ATP levels. Conclusions/Significance: The selective impairment of the CK system may be associated to the loss of inotropic reserve observed in CCC. Reduction of ATP synthase alpha levels is consistent with a decrease in myocardial ATP generation through oxidative phosphorylation. Together, these results suggest that the energetic deficit is more intense in the myocardium of CCC patients than in the other tested dilated cardiomyopathies.

The family health system: analysis of a health survey in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Background The Family Health Strategy (FHS) has been implemented as a strategy for primary care improvement in Brazil. Working with teams that include one doctor, one nurse, auxiliary nurses and community health workers in predefined areas, the FHS began in 1994 (known then as the Family Health Program) and has since grown considerably. The programme has only recently undergone assessment of outcomes, in contrast to more routine evaluations of infrastructure and process. Methods In 2001, a health survey was carried out in two administrative districts (with 190 000 inhabitants) on the outskirts of the city of Sao Paulo, both partially served by the FHS. Chronic morbidity (hypertension, diabetes and ischaemic heart disease) of individuals aged 15 or older was studied in areas covered and not covered by the programme. Stratified univariate analysis was applied for sex, age, education, income, working status and social insurance of these populations. Multivariate analysis was applied where applicable. Results There was a distinct pattern in the morbidity profile of these populations, suggesting differentiated self-knowledge on chronic disease status in the areas served by the FHS. Conclusion The FHS can increase population awareness of chronic diseases, possibly through increasing access to primary care.

Qualitative Analysis of the Interdisciplinary Interaction between Data Analysis Specialists and Novice Clinical Researchers

Background: The inherent complexity of statistical methods and clinical phenomena compel researchers with diverse domains of expertise to work in interdisciplinary teams, where none of them have a complete knowledge in their counterpart's field. As a result, knowledge exchange may often be characterized by miscommunication leading to misinterpretation, ultimately resulting in errors in research and even clinical practice. Though communication has a central role in interdisciplinary collaboration and since miscommunication can have a negative impact on research processes, to the best of our knowledge, no study has yet explored how data analysis specialists and clinical researchers communicate over time. Methods/Principal Findings: We conducted qualitative analysis of encounters between clinical researchers and data analysis specialists (epidemiologist, clinical epidemiologist, and data mining specialist). These encounters were recorded and systematically analyzed using a grounded theory methodology for extraction of emerging themes, followed by data triangulation and analysis of negative cases for validation. A policy analysis was then performed using a system dynamics methodology looking for potential interventions to improve this process. Four major emerging themes were found. Definitions using lay language were frequently employed as a way to bridge the language gap between the specialties. Thought experiments presented a series of ""what if'' situations that helped clarify how the method or information from the other field would behave, if exposed to alternative situations, ultimately aiding in explaining their main objective. Metaphors and analogies were used to translate concepts across fields, from the unfamiliar to the familiar. Prolepsis was used to anticipate study outcomes, thus helping specialists understand the current context based on an understanding of their final goal. Conclusion/Significance: The communication between clinical researchers and data analysis specialists presents multiple challenges that can lead to errors.

A score system for quality evaluation of RNA sequence tags: an improvement for gene expression profiling

Background: High-throughput molecular approaches for gene expression profiling, such as Serial Analysis of Gene Expression (SAGE), Massively Parallel Signature Sequencing (MPSS) or Sequencing-by-Synthesis (SBS) represent powerful techniques that provide global transcription profiles of different cell types through sequencing of short fragments of transcripts, denominated sequence tags. These techniques have improved our understanding about the relationships between these expression profiles and cellular phenotypes. Despite this, more reliable datasets are still necessary. In this work, we present a web-based tool named S3T: Score System for Sequence Tags, to index sequenced tags in accordance with their reliability. This is made through a series of evaluations based on a defined rule set. S3T allows the identification/selection of tags, considered more reliable for further gene expression analysis. Results: This methodology was applied to a public SAGE dataset. In order to compare data before and after filtering, a hierarchical clustering analysis was performed in samples from the same type of tissue, in distinct biological conditions, using these two datasets. Our results provide evidences suggesting that it is possible to find more congruous clusters after using S3T scoring system. Conclusion: These results substantiate the proposed application to generate more reliable data. This is a significant contribution for determination of global gene expression profiles. The library analysis with S3T is freely available at http://gdm.fmrp.usp.br/s3t/.S3T source code and datasets can also be downloaded from the aforementioned website.

Central nitrergic system regulation of neuroendocrine secretion, fluid intake and blood pressure induced by angiotensin-II

Background: Nitric oxide (NO) synthesis has been described in several circumventricular and hypothalamic structures in the central nervous system that are implicated in mediating central angiotensin-II (ANG-II) actions during water deprivation and hypovolemia. Neuroendocrine and cardiovascular responses, drinking behavior, and urinary excretions were examined following central angiotensinergic stimulation in awake freely-moving rats pretreated with intracerebroventricular injections of N omega-nitro-L-arginine methyl ester (L-NAME, 40 mu g), an inhibitor of NO synthase, and L-arginine (20 ug), a precursor of NO. Results: Injections of L-NAME or ANG-II produced an increase in plasma vasopressin (VP), oxytocin (OT) and atrial natriuretic peptide (ANP) levels, an increase in water and sodium intake, mean arterial blood pressure and sodium excretion, and a reduction of urinary volume. L-NAME pretreatment enhanced the ANG-II response, while L-arginine attenuated VP and OT release, thirst, appetite for sodium, antidiuresis, and natriuresis, as well as pressor responses induced by ANG-II. Discussion and conclusion: Thus, the central nitrergic system participates in the angiotensinergic responses evoked by water deprivation and hypovolemia to refrain neurohypophysial secretion, hydromineral balance, and blood pressure homeostasis.