Use of a predictive model for food insecurity estimates in Brazil

In 2004 the National Household Survey (Pesquisa Nacional par Amostras de Domicilios - PNAD) estimated the prevalence of food and nutrition insecurity in Brazil. However, PNAD data cannot be disaggregated at the municipal level. The objective of this study was to build a statistical model to predict severe food insecurity for Brazilian municipalities based on the PNAD dataset. Exclusion criteria were: incomplete food security data (19.30%); informants younger than 18 years old (0.07%); collective households (0.05%); households headed by indigenous persons (0.19%). The modeling was carried out in three stages, beginning with the selection of variables related to food insecurity using univariate logistic regression. The variables chosen to construct the municipal estimates were selected from those included in PNAD as well as the 2000 Census. Multivariate logistic regression was then initiated, removing the non-significant variables with odds ratios adjusted by multiple logistic regression. The Wald Test was applied to check the significance of the coefficients in the logistic equation. The final model included the variables: per capita income; years of schooling; race and gender of the household head; urban or rural residence; access to public water supply; presence of children; total number of household inhabitants and state of residence. The adequacy of the model was tested using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (p=0.561) and ROC curve (area=0.823). Tests indicated that the model has strong predictive power and can be used to determine household food insecurity in Brazilian municipalities, suggesting that similar predictive models may be useful tools in other Latin American countries.

Study of the pozzolanic reaction kinetics in sugar cane bagasse-clay ash/calcium hydroxide system: kinetic parameters and pozzolanic activity

This paper presents a study of the pozzolanic reaction kinetics between calcium hydroxide and a mixture of sugar cane bagasse with 20 and 30% of clay, burned at 800 and 1000 degrees C (SCBCA) by electrical conductivity measurements. A kinetic-diffusive model produced in previous studies by some of the authors was used. The model was fitted to the experimental data, which allowed the computation of the kinetic parameters of the pozzolanic reaction (reaction rate constant and free energy of activation) that rigorously characterised the pozzolanic activity of the materials. The results show that SCBCA demonstrated reactivity and good pozzolanic qualities in the range 800-1000 degrees C.

The allergic inflammatory reaction in neonatal streptozotocininduced diabetic rats: evidence of insulin resistance and microvascular dysfunction

To investigate the allergic reaction in neonatal streptozotocin (nSTZ)-induced diabetes mellitus. Male newborn Wistar rats were made diabetic by the injection of streptozotocin (160 mg/kg, i. p.) and used 8 weeks thereafter. Animals were sensitized against ovalbumin (OA, 50 mu g and Al(OH)3, 5 mg, s. c.) and challenged 14 or 21 days thereafter. OA-induced airway inflammation and OA-induced pleurisy models were used to investigate leukocyte migration (total and differential leukocyte counts) and lung vascular permeability (Evans blue dye extravasation). nSTZ-diabetic rats presented glucose intolerance and insulin resistance. Relative to controls, nSTZ rats exhibited a 30% to 50% reduction in lung vascular permeability. Leukocyte infiltration in both models of allergen-induced inflammation, and number of pleural mast cells did not differ between groups. Data suggest that the reduction of allergic inflammatory reactions in nSTZ rats is restricted to microvascular dysfunctions and associated, probably, with insulin resistance in lung microvascular endothelium.

A new model of outbred genetically selected mice which present a strong acute inflammatory response in the absence of complement component C5

Mice selected for a strong (AIRmax) or weak (AIRmin) acute inflammatory response present different susceptibilities to bacterial infections, autoimmune diseases and carcinogenesis. Variations in these phenotypes have been also detected in AIRmax and AIRmin mice rendered homozygous for Slc11a1 resistant (R) and susceptible (S) alleles. Our aim was to investigate if the phenotypic differences observed in these mice was related to the complement system. AIRmax and AIRmin mice and AIRmax and AIRmin groups homozygous for the resistance (R) or susceptibility (S) alleles of the solute carrier family 11a1 member (Slc11a1) gene, formerly designated Nramp-1. While no difference in complement activity was detected in sera from AIRmax and AIRmin strains, all sera from AIRmax Slc11a1 resistant mice (AIRmax(RR)) presented no complement-dependent hemolytic activity. Furthermore, C5 was not found in their sera by immunodiffusion and, polymerase chain reaction and DNA sequencing of its gene demonstrated that AIRmax(RR) mice are homozygous for the C5 deficient (D) mutation previously described in A/J. Therefore, the C5D allele was fixed in homozygosis in AIRmax(RR) line. The AIRmax(RR) line is a new experimental mouse model in which a strong inflammatory response can be triggered in vivo in the absence of C5.

Using non-homogeneous Poisson models with multiple change-points to estimate the number of ozone exceedances in Mexico City

In this paper, we consider some non-homogeneous Poisson models to estimate the probability that an air quality standard is exceeded a given number of times in a time interval of interest. We assume that the number of exceedances occurs according to a non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP). This Poisson process has rate function lambda(t), t >= 0, which depends on some parameters that must be estimated. We take into account two cases of rate functions: the Weibull and the Goel-Okumoto. We consider models with and without change-points. When the presence of change-points is assumed, we may have the presence of either one, two or three change-points, depending of the data set. The parameters of the rate functions are estimated using a Gibbs sampling algorithm. Results are applied to ozone data provided by the Mexico City monitoring network. In a first instance, we assume that there are no change-points present. Depending on the adjustment of the model, we assume the presence of either one, two or three change-points. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Methods of Estimation in Multiple Linear Regression: Application to Clinical Data

Nesse artigo, tem-se o interesse em avaliar diferentes estratégias de estimação de parâmetros para um modelo de regressão linear múltipla. Para a estimação dos parâmetros do modelo foram utilizados dados de um ensaio clínico em que o interesse foi verificar se o ensaio mecânico da propriedade de força máxima (EM-FM) está associada com a massa femoral, com o diâmetro femoral e com o grupo experimental de ratas ovariectomizadas da raça Rattus norvegicus albinus, variedade Wistar. Para a estimação dos parâmetros do modelo serão comparadas três metodologias: a metodologia clássica, baseada no método dos mínimos quadrados; a metodologia Bayesiana, baseada no teorema de Bayes; e o método Bootstrap, baseado em processos de reamostragem.

IS QFT WITH EXTERNAL BACKGROUNDS A CONSISTENT MODEL?

We discuss consistency of the concept of external background in QFT. Different restrictions on magnitude of magnetic and electric fields are analyzed. The back reaction due to strong electric field is calculated and restrictions on the magnitude and duration of such a field are obtained. The problem of consistency of Dirac equation with a superstrong Coulomb field is discussed.

CLUSTER MODEL FOR REACTIONS INDUCED BY WEAKLY BOUND AND/OR EXOTIC HALO NUCLEI WITH MEDIUM-MASS TARGETS

An experimental overview of reactions induced by the stable, but weakly-bound nuclei (6)Li, (7)Li and (9)Be, and by the exotic, halo nuclei (6)He, (8)B, (11)Be and (17)F On medium-mass targets, such as (58)Ni, (59)Co or (64)Zn, is presented. Existing data on elastic scattering, total reaction cross sections, fusion, breakup and transfer channels are discussed in the framework of a CDCC approach taking into account the breakup degree of freedom.

Reaction mechanisms in the (6)Li+(59)Co system

The reactions induced by the weakly bound (6)Li projectile interacting with the intermediate mass target (59)Co were investigated. Light charged particles singles and alpha-d coincidence measurements were performed at the near barrier energies E(lab) = 17.4, 21.5, 25.5 and 29.6 MeV. The main contributions of the different competing mechanisms are discussed. A statistical model analysis. Continuum-Discretized Coupled-Channels (CDCC) calculations and two-body kinematics were used as tools to provide information to disentangle the main components of these mechanisms. A significant contribution of the direct breakup was observed through the difference between the experimental sequential breakup cross section and the CDCC prediction for the non-capture breakup cross section. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

alpha-Spectroscopic factor of (16)O(gs) from the (12)C((16)O,(12)C)(16)O reaction

Elastic scattering angular distributions of (16)O + (12)C in the center of mass energy range from 8.55 MeV to 56.57 MeV have been analyzed considering the effect of the exchange of an alpha particle between projectile and target leading to the same nuclei of the entrance channel (elastic-transfer). An alpha particle spectroscopic factor for the ground state of the (16)O was determined. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Total reaction cross-sections for light weakly bound systems

We have measured the elastic scattering cross-section for (8)Li + (9)Be and (8)Li + (51)V systems at 19.6 MeV and 18.5 MeV, respectively. We have also extracted total reaction cross sections from the elastic scattering analysis for several light weakly bound systems using the optical model with Woods-Saxon and double-folding-type potentials. Different reduction methods for the total reaction cross-sections have been applied to analyze and compare simultaneously all the systems.

Proton-halo effects in the (8)B+(58)Ni reaction near the Coulomb barrier

Elastic scattering of (8)B and (7)Be on a (58)Ni target has been measured at energies near the Coulomb barrier. The total reaction cross sections were deduced from Optical-model fits to the experimental angular distributions. Comparison with other systems shows evidence for proton-halo effects on (8)B, as well as for neutron-halo on (6)He reactions. While the enhancement in the cross section observed for (8)B is explained in terms of projectile breakup, in the case of (6)He reactions, the particle transfer proces explains the observed enhancement.

Multiple Pathways Analysis of Brain Functional Networks from EEG Signals: An Application to Real Data

In the present study, we propose a theoretical graph procedure to investigate multiple pathways in brain functional networks. By taking into account all the possible paths consisting of h links between the nodes pairs of the network, we measured the global network redundancy R (h) as the number of parallel paths and the global network permeability P (h) as the probability to get connected. We used this procedure to investigate the structural and dynamical changes in the cortical networks estimated from a dataset of high-resolution EEG signals in a group of spinal cord injured (SCI) patients during the attempt of foot movement. In the light of a statistical contrast with a healthy population, the permeability index P (h) of the SCI networks increased significantly (P < 0.01) in the Theta frequency band (3-6 Hz) for distances h ranging from 2 to 4. On the contrary, no significant differences were found between the two populations for the redundancy index R (h) . The most significant changes in the brain functional network of SCI patients occurred mainly in the lower spectral contents. These changes were related to an improved propagation of communication between the closest cortical areas rather than to a different level of redundancy. This evidence strengthens the hypothesis of the need for a higher functional interaction among the closest ROIs as a mechanism to compensate the lack of feedback from the peripheral nerves to the sensomotor areas.

Automatic camera control in virtual environments augmented using multiple sparse videos

Automated virtual camera control has been widely used in animation and interactive virtual environments. We have developed a multiple sparse camera based free view video system prototype that allows users to control the position and orientation of a virtual camera, enabling the observation of a real scene in three dimensions (3D) from any desired viewpoint. Automatic camera control can be activated to follow selected objects by the user. Our method combines a simple geometric model of the scene composed of planes (virtual environment), augmented with visual information from the cameras and pre-computed tracking information of moving targets to generate novel perspective corrected 3D views of the virtual camera and moving objects. To achieve real-time rendering performance, view-dependent textured mapped billboards are used to render the moving objects at their correct locations and foreground masks are used to remove the moving objects from the projected video streams. The current prototype runs on a PC with a common graphics card and can generate virtual 2D views from three cameras of resolution 768 x 576 with several moving objects at about 11 fps. (C)2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bayesian Analysis for Nonlinear Regression Model Under Skewed Errors, with Application in Growth Curves

We have considered a Bayesian approach for the nonlinear regression model by replacing the normal distribution on the error term by some skewed distributions, which account for both skewness and heavy tails or skewness alone. The type of data considered in this paper concerns repeated measurements taken in time on a set of individuals. Such multiple observations on the same individual generally produce serially correlated outcomes. Thus, additionally, our model does allow for a correlation between observations made from the same individual. We have illustrated the procedure using a data set to study the growth curves of a clinic measurement of a group of pregnant women from an obstetrics clinic in Santiago, Chile. Parameter estimation and prediction were carried out using appropriate posterior simulation schemes based in Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Besides the deviance information criterion (DIC) and the conditional predictive ordinate (CPO), we suggest the use of proper scoring rules based on the posterior predictive distribution for comparing models. For our data set, all these criteria chose the skew-t model as the best model for the errors. These DIC and CPO criteria are also validated, for the model proposed here, through a simulation study. As a conclusion of this study, the DIC criterion is not trustful for this kind of complex model.