New body fat prediction equations for severely obese patients

Background & aims: Severe obesity imposes physical limitations to body composition assessment. Our aim was to compare body fat (BF) estimations of severely obese patients obtained by bioelectrical impedance (BIA) and air displacement plethysmography (ADP) for development of new equations for BF prediction. Methods: Severely obese subjects (83 female/36 mate, mean age = 41.6 +/- 11.6 years) had BF estimated by BIA and ADP. The agreement of the data was evaluated using Bland-Altman`s graphic and concordance correlation coefficient (CCC). A multivariate regression analysis was performed to develop and validate new predictive equations. Results: BF estimations from BIA (64.8 +/- 15 kg) and ADP (65.6 +/- 16.4 kg) did not differ (p > 0.05, with good accuracy, precision, and CCC), but the Bland- Altman graphic showed a wide Limit of agreement (- 10.4; 8.8). The standard BIA equation overestimated BF in women (-1.3 kg) and underestimated BF in men (5.6 kg; p < 0.05). Two BF new predictive equations were generated after BIA measurement, which predicted BF with higher accuracy, precision, CCC, and limits of agreement than the standard BIA equation. Conclusions: Standard BIA equations were inadequate for estimating BF in severely obese patients. Equations developed especially for this population provide more accurate BF assessment. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

Very early prediction of response to HCV treatment with PEG-IFN-alfa-2a and ribavirin in HIV/HCV-coinfected patients

The objective of this study was to find very early viral kinetic markers to predict nonresponse to hepatitis C virus (HCV) therapy in a group of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/HCV-coinfected patients. Twenty-six patients (15 HCV genotype-1 and 11 genotype-3) were treated with a 48-week regimen of peginterferon-alfa-2a (PEG-IFN) (180 mu g/week) and weight-based ribavirin (11 mg/kg/day). Samples were collected at baseline; 4, 8, 12, 18, 24, 30, 36 and 42 h; days 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 15, 22, 29, 43 and 57 then weekly and monthly. Five patients discontinued treatment. Seven patients (27%) achieved a sustained virological response (SVR). Nadir HCV RNA levels were observed 1.6 +/- 0.3 days after initiation of therapy, followed by a 0.3- to 12.9-fold viral rebound until the administration of the second dose of PEG-IFN, which were not associated with SVR or HCV genotype. A viral decline < 1.19 log for genotype-1 and < 0.97 log for genotype-3, 2 days after starting therapy, had a negative predictive value (NPV) of 100% for SVR. The day 2 virological response had a similar positive predictive value for SVR as a rapid virological response at week 4. In addition, a second-phase viral decline slope (i.e., measured from day 2 to 29) < 0.3 log/week had a NPV = 100% for SVR. We conclude that first-phase viral decline at day 2 and second-phase viral decline slope (< 0.3 log/week) are excellent predictors of nonresponse. Further studies are needed to validate these viral kinetic parameters as early on-treatment prognosticators of nonresponse in patients with HCV and HIV.

THE TEMPO AND MODE OF EVOLUTION OF TRANSPOSABLE ELEMENTS AS REVEALED BY MOLECULAR PHYLOGENIES RECONSTRUCTED FROM MOSQUITO GENOMES

Although many mathematical models exist predicting the dynamics of transposable elements (TEs), there is a lack of available empirical data to validate these models and inherent assumptions. Genomes can provide a snapshot of several TE families in a single organism, and these could have their demographics inferred by coalescent analysis, allowing for the testing of theories on TE amplification dynamics. Using the available genomes of the mosquitoes Aedes aegypti and Anopheles gambiae, we indicate that such an approach is feasible. Our analysis follows four steps: (1) mining the two mosquito genomes currently available in search of TE families; (2) fitting, to selected families found in (1), a phylogeny tree under the general time-reversible (GTR) nucleotide substitution model with an uncorrelated lognormal (UCLN) relaxed clock and a nonparametric demographic model; (3) fitting a nonparametric coalescent model to the tree generated in (2); and (4) fitting parametric models motivated by ecological theories to the curve generated in (3).

Model-Predicted Performance of Second-Trimester Down Syndrome Screening With Sonographic Prenasal Thickness

Objective. The purpose of this study was to estimate the Down syndrome detection and false-positive rates for second-trimester sonographic prenasal thickness (PT) measurement alone and in combination with other markers. Methods. Multivariate log Gaussian modeling was performed using numerical integration. Parameters for the PT distribution, in multiples of the normal gestation-specific median (MoM), were derived from 105 Down syndrome and 1385 unaffected pregnancies scanned at 14 to 27 weeks. The data included a new series of 25 cases and 535 controls combined with 4 previously published series. The means were estimated by the median and the SDs by the 10th to 90th range divided by 2.563. Parameters for other markers were obtained from the literature. Results. A log Gaussian model fitted the distribution of PT values well in Down syndrome and unaffected pregnancies. The distribution parameters were as follows: Down syndrome, mean, 1.334 MoM; log(10) SD, 0.0772; unaffected pregnancies, 0.995 and 0.0752, respectively. The model-predicted detection rates for 1%, 3%, and 5% false-positive rates for PT alone were 35%, 51%, and 60%, respectively. The addition of PT to a 4 serum marker protocol increased detection by 14% to 18% compared with serum alone. The simultaneous sonographic measurement of PT and nasal bone length increased detection by 19% to 26%, and with a third sonographic marker, nuchal skin fold, performance was comparable with first-trimester protocols. Conclusions. Second-trimester screening with sonographic PT and serum markers is predicted to have a high detection rate, and further sonographic markers could perform comparably with first-trimester screening protocols.

Placental Volumes Measured by 3-Dimensional Ultrasonography in Normal Pregnancies From 12 to 40 Weeks` Gestation

Objective. The purpose of this study was to construct nomograms of placental volumes according to gestational age and estimated fetal weight. Methods. From March to November 2007, placental volumes were prospectively measured by ultrasonography in 295 normal pregnancies from 12 to 40 weeks` gestation and correlated with gestational age and estimated fetal weight. Inclusion criteria were healthy women, singleton pregnancies with normal fetal morphologic characteristics on ultrasonography, and confirmed gestational age by first-trimester ultrasonography. Results. The mean placental volume ranged from 83 cm(3) at 12 weeks to 427.7 cm(3) at 40 weeks. Linear regression yielded the following formula for the expected placental volumes (ePV) according to gestational age (GA): ePV` (cm(3)) = -64.68 + 12.31 x GA (r = 0.572; P < .001). Placental volumes also varied according to estimated fetal weight (EFW), and the following mathematical equation was also obtained by linear regression: ePV = 94.19 + 0.09 x EFW (r = 0.505; P < 0.001). Conclusions. Nomograms of placental volumes according to gestational age and estimated fetal weight were constructed, generating reference values.

Early identification of leptospirosis-associated pulmonary hemorrhage syndrome by use of a validated prediction model

Objective: To identify prediction factors for the development of leptospirosis-associated pulmonary hemorrhage syndrome (LPHS). Methods: We conducted a prospective cohort study. The study comprised of 203 patients, aged >= 14 years, admitted with complications of the severe form of leptospirosis at the Emilio Ribas Institute of Infectology (Sao Paulo, Brazil) between 1998 and 2004. Laboratory and demographic data were obtained and the severity of illness score and involvement of the lungs and others organs were determined. Logistic regression was performed to identify independent predictors of LPHS. A prospective validation cohort of 97 subjects with severe form of leptospirosis admitted at the same hospital between 2004 and 2006 was used to independently evaluate the predictive value of the model. Results: The overall mortality rate was 7.9%. Multivariate logistic regression revealed that five factors were independently associated with the development of LPHS: serum potassium (mmol/L) (OR = 2.6; 95% CI = 1.1-5.9); serum creatinine (mmol/L) (OR = 1.2; 95% CI = 1.1-1.4); respiratory rate (breaths/min) (OR = 1.1; 95% CI = 1.1-1.2); presenting shock (OR = 69.9; 95% CI = 20.1-236.4), and Glasgow Coma Scale Score (GCS) < 15 (OR = 7.7; 95% CI = 1.3-23.0). We used these findings to calculate the risk of LPHS by the use of a spreadsheet. In the validation cohort, the equation classified correctly 92% of patients (Kappa statistic = 0.80). Conclusions: We developed and validated a multivariate model for predicting LPHS. This tool should prove useful in identifying LPHS patients, allowing earlier management and thereby reducing mortality. (C) 2009 The British Infection Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Red Blood Cell Transfusions are Independently Associated with Intra-Hospital Mortality in Very Low Birth Weight Preterm Infants

Objective To test the hypothesis that red blood cell (RBC) transfusions in preterm infants are associated with increased intra-hospital mortality. Study design Variables associated with death were studied with Cox regression analysis in a prospective cohort of preterm infants with birth weight <1500 g in the Brazilian Network on Neonatal Research. Intra-hospital death and death after 28 days of life were analyzed as dependent variables. Independent variables were infant demographic and clinical characteristics and RBC transfusions. Results Of 1077 infants, 574 (53.3%) received at least one RBC transfusion during the hospital stay. The mean number of transfusions per infant was 3.3 +/- 3.4, with 2.1 +/- 2.1 in the first 28 days of life. Intra-hospital death occurred in 299 neonates (27.8%), and 60 infants (5.6%) died after 28 days of life. After adjusting for confounders, the relative risk of death during hospital stay was 1.49 in infants who received at least one RBC transfusion in the first 28 days of life, compared with infants who did not receive a transfusion. The risk of death after 28 days of life was 1.89 times higher in infants who received more than two RBC transfusions during their hospital stay, compared with infants who received one or two transfusions. Conclusion Transfusion was associated with increased death, and transfusion guidelines should consider risks and benefits of transfusion. (J Pediatr 2011; 159: 371-6).

Intracardiac Cavopulmonary Connection in Patients with Univentricular Heart Using Intra-atrial Lateral Tunnel and Intra-atrial Conduit Techniques

Background: In this study, we analyzed the time course of hemodynamic efficiency and follow-up in Fontan candidates who underwent the bidirectional Glenn procedure for staged intracardiac cavopulmonary connection (ICPC). Methods: Between 1991 and 2008, 52 patients with univentricular heart (mean age, 3.3 years; range, 2-8 years; 27 female patients [51.9%]) underwent ICPC. The cardiac malformations were as follows: tricuspid atresia, 25 cases (48.0%); common ventricle, 16 cases (30.7%); and pulmonary atresia with intact ventricular septum, 11 cases (21.1%). The intracardiac cavopulmonary procedure was indicated for all 52 cases. In 42 patients (80.7%), an intra-atrial lateral tunnel was constructed with a bovine pericardium patch. In the last 10 consecutive cases (19.3%), we performed a modified surgical technique in which we implanted an intra-atrial corrugated bovine pericardium tube sutured around the superior and inferior vena cava ostium. In all cases, a 4-mm fenestration was made to reduce the intratunnel pressure. All 52 patients had previously undergone a Glenn operation. Results: There were 2 hospital deaths (3.8%) and no recorded late deaths. During the follow-up, all patients were medicated with antiplatelet drugs. To evaluate the hemodynamic performance, we used Doppler echocardiography, computed tomography, and magnetic nuclear resonance studies. There were no prosthesis thromboses during this follow-up period. To evaluate cardiac arrhythmias, we conducted a Holter study. The last 10 patients with an intra-atrial conduit (IAC) presented with sinus rhythm and no arrhythmias during the last 4 years. The 50 surviving patients (96.1%) have been followed up for 6 to 204 months; all these patients are free of reoperation. Conclusion: The Glenn operation, which is performed at an early age, prepares the pulmonary bed to receive the ICPC. The midterm results of the intracardiac Fontan procedure seem to be good. The modified surgical procedure (IAC) can be a good alternative technique to the Fontan procedure in suitable patients.

Individual risk prediction of nodal and distant metastasis for patients with typical bronchial carcinoid tumors

Objective: Bronchial typical carcinoid tumors are tow-grade malignancies. However, metastases are diagnosed in some patients. Predicting the individual risk of these metastases to determine patients eligible for a radical lymphadenectomy and patients to be followed-up because of distant metastasis risk is relevant. Our objective was to screen for predictive criteria of bronchial typical carcinoid tumor aggressiveness based on a logistic regression model using clinical, pathological and biomolecular data. Methods: A multicenter retrospective cohort study, including 330 consecutive patients operated on for bronchial typical carcinoid tumors and followed-up during a period more than 10 years in two university hospitals was performed. Selected data to predict the individual risk for both nodal and distant metastasis were: age, gender, TNM staging, tumor diameter and location (central/peripheral), tumor immunostaining index of p53 and Ki67, Bcl2 and the extracellular density of neoformed microvessels and of collagen/elastic extracellular fibers. Results: Nodal and distant metastasis incidence was 11% and 5%, respectively. Univariate analysis identified all the studied biomarkers as related to nodal metastasis. Multivariate analysis identified a predictive variable for nodal metastasis: neo angiogenesis, quantified by the neoformed pathological microvessels density. Distant metastasis was related to mate gender. Discussion: Predictive models based on clinical and biomolecular data could be used to predict individual risk for metastasis. Patients under a high individual risk for lymph node metastasis should be considered as candidates to mediastinal lymphadenectomy. Those under a high risk of distant metastasis should be followed-up as having an aggressive disease. Conclusion: Individual risk prediction of bronchial typical carcinoid tumor metastasis for patients operated on can be calculated in function of biomolecular data. Prediction models can detect high-risk patients and help surgeons to identify patients requiring radical lymphadenectomy and help oncologists to identify those as having an aggressive disease requiring prolonged follow-up. (C) 2008 European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Women`s opinions about mode of birth in Brazil: a qualitative study in a public teaching hospital

Objective: to describe women`s feelings about mode of birth. Design: exploratory descriptive design. Semi-structured interviews were conducted using a questionnaire that had been developed previously (categorical data and open-and closed-ended questions). Qualitative analysis of the results was performed through a context analysis technique. Setting: the largest public university hospital in Brazil. Participants: 48 women in their third trimester of pregnancy. Findings: most women expressed a preference for vaginal birth, as they perceived that they would have a faster recovery. Women who expressed a preference for caesarean section did so because of lack of pain during the birth and the need for tubal sterilisation. The majority of women considered it important to have experience with a mode of birth in order to choose a preference. Complications associated with maternal illness were very influential in the decision-making process. Key conclusions: these results provide a useful first step towards the identification of aspects of women`s feelings about modes of birth. Most women expressed a preference for vaginal birth. Further exploration of women`s feelings regarding parturition and the decision-making process is required. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Inter- and intra-tester reliability of clinical measurement to determine medio-lateral patellar position using a pachymeter or visual assessment

The aim was to investigate inter-tester and intra-tester reliability and parallel reliability between a visual assessment method and a method using a pachymeter for locating the mid-point of the patella in determining the medial/lateral patella orientation. Fifteen asymptomatic subjects were assessed and the mid-point of the patella was determined by both methods on two separate occasions two weeks apart. Inter-tester reliability was obtained by ANOVA and by intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC); intra-tester reliability was obtained by a paired t-test and ICC; and parallel reliability was obtained by Pearson`s Correlation and ICC, for the measurement on the first and second evaluations. There was acceptable inter-tester agreement (p = 0.490) and reliability for the visual inspection (ICC = 0.747) and for the pachymeter (ICC = 0.716) at the second evaluation. The inter-tester reliability in the first evaluation was unacceptable (visual ICC = 0.604; pachymeter ICC = 0.612). Although there was statistical similarity between measurements for the first and second evaluations for all testers, intra-tester reliability was not acceptable for both methods: visual (examiner 1 ICC = 0.175; examiner 2 ICC = 0.189; examiner 3 ICC = 0.155) and pachymeter (examiner 1 ICC = 0.214; examiner 2 ICC = 0.246; examiner 3 ICC = 0.069). Parallel reliability gave a perfect correlation at the first evaluation (r=0.828; p<0.001) and at the second (r=0.756; p<0.001) and reliability was between acceptable and very good (ICC = [0.748-0.813]). Both visual and pachymeter methods provide reliable and similar medial/lateral patella orientation and are reliable between different examiners, but the results between the two assessments at 2 weeks` interval demonstrated an unacceptable reliability. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Abuse liability of intra-nasal midazolam in inhaled-cocaine abusers

Intra-nasally instilled benzodiazepines have been proposed for acute anxiety episodes. However, routes with faster absorption may increase abuse liability. This study compared abuse liability of intra-nasal midazolam between subjects with a history of intra-nasal drug abuse and non-psychiatric subjects on a single-blind randomized controlled trial. Thirty-one inhaled-cocaine abusers and 34 normal volunteers received either 1 mg intra-nasal midazolam or active placebo. Visual analogue scales assessing desire to repeat the experience (ER) and Experience Liking (EL) assessed abuse liability. Profile analysis for repeated measures showed a significant effect of time over ER (F-[5,F-57]=3.311, p=0.011) and EL (F-[5,F-57]=3.947, p=0.004), diagnostic group (cocaine abusers scoring higher on both - F-[5,F-57]=5.229, p=0.026; F-[5,F-57]=4.946, p=0.030), regardless of the administered substance. It is concluded that the intra-nasal route does not seem to pose risks for non-psychiatric individuals, but it may represent a risk in itself for subjects with a history of drug abuse through this path. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. and ECNP. All rights reserved.

The effect of the number of biopsy cores on the concordance between prostate biopsy and prostatectomy Gleason score - A prostate volume-controlled study

Context.-Studies analyzing the concordance of biopsy and radical prostatectomy (RP) Gleason scores have limitations. Some included 2 or more centers, used historical controls from the early prostate specific antigen era or lacked a clear definition of the biopsy schemes. Furthermore, most did not control the results for prostate volume. Objective.-To confirm whether prediction of RP Gleason score can be optimized by taking more biopsy cores in a contemporary series of patients, with pathologic samples analyzed by the same pathologist, and controlling these results for prostate volume. Design.-The study comprised a retrospective case-control analysis of 393 patients with prostate cancer treated with RP. Patients were divided into 3 groups: those in group 1 underwent a 6-core biopsy; group 2, an 8-core biopsy; and group 3, a 10 or more-core biopsy. Concordance rates between biopsy and RP Gleason scores, as well as the rates of undergrading and overgrading, were determined for each biopsy scheme. Results.-Concordance rates were 60.9%, 58.3%, and 64.6% for patients from groups 1, 2, and 3, respectively (P = .18). When we analyzed patients with prostate volumes of less than 50 cm(3), concordance rates were 58.3%, 58.3%, and 65.1% for each group, respectively (P = .03). Among patients with prostate volumes of 50 cm3 or more, concordance rates were 70%, 58.1%, and 63.6%, respectively (P = .66). Conclusions.-Taking 10 or more cores can improve the prediction of RP Gleason score in patients with prostate volumes of less than 50 cm3. For patients with prostate volumes of 50 cm3 or more, increasing the biopsy cores to 10 or more did not improve prediction of RP Gleason score.

Comparison of HRT-3 glaucoma probability score and subjective stereophotograph assessment for prediction of progression in glaucoma

PURPOSE. To assess whether baseline Glaucoma Probability Score (GPS; HRT-3; Heidelberg Engineering, Dossenheim, Germany) results are predictive of progression in patients with suspected glaucoma. The GPS is a new feature of the confocal scanning laser ophthalmoscope that generates an operator-independent, three-dimensional model of the optic nerve head and gives a score for the probability that this model is consistent with glaucomatous damage. METHODS. The study included 223 patients with suspected glaucoma during an average follow-up of 63.3 months. Included subjects had a suspect optic disc appearance and/or elevated intraocular pressure, but normal visual fields. Conversion was defined as development of either repeatable abnormal visual fields or glaucomatous deterioration in the appearance of the optic disc during the study period. The association between baseline GPS and conversion was investigated by Cox regression models. RESULTS. Fifty-four (24.2%) eyes converted. In multivariate models, both higher values of GPS global and subjective stereophotograph assessment ( larger cup-disc ratio and glaucomatous grading) were predictive of conversion: adjusted hazard ratios (95% CI): 1.31 (1.15 - 1.50) per 0.1 higher global GPS, 1.34 (1.12 - 1.62) per 0.1 higher CDR, and 2.34 (1.22 - 4.47) for abnormal grading, respectively. No significant differences ( P > 0.05 for all comparisons) were found between the c-index values ( equivalent to area under ROC curve) for the multivariate models (0.732, 0.705, and 0.699, respectively). CONCLUSIONS. GPS values were predictive of conversion in our population of patients with suspected glaucoma. Further, they performed as well as subjective assessment of the optic disc. These results suggest that GPS could potentially replace stereophotograph as a tool for estimating the likelihood of conversion to glaucoma.

Intra- and inter-observer reliability of MRI examination of intervertebral disc abnormalities in patients with cervical myelopathy

Purpose: Intervertebral cervical disc herniation (CDH) is a relatively common disorder that can coexist with degenerative changes to worsen cervicogenic myelopathy. Despite the frequent disc abnormalities found in asymptomatic populations, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is considered excellent at detecting cervical spine myelopathy (CSM) associated with disc abnormality. The objective of this study was to investigate the intra- and inter-observer reliability of MRI detection of CSM in subjects who also had co-existing intervertebral disc abnormalities. Materials and methods: Seven experienced radiologists reviewed twice the MRI of 10 patients with clinically and/or imaging determined myelopathy. MRI assessment was performed individually, with and without operational guidelines. A Fleiss Kappa statistic was used to evaluate the intra- and inter-observer agreement. Results: The study found high intra-observer percent agreement but relatively low Kappa values on selected variables. Inter-observer reliability was also low and neither observation was improved with operational guidelines. We believe that those low values may be associated with the base rate problem of Kappa. Conclusion: In conclusion, this study demonstrated high intra-observer percent agreement in MR examination for intervertebral disc abnormalities in patients with underlying cervical myelopathy, but differing levels of intra- and inter-observer Kappa agreement among seven radiologists. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.