Spatio-temporal modeling of agricultural yield data with an application to pricing crop insurance contracts

This article presents a statistical model of agricultural yield data based on a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that allows joint modeling of temporal and spatial autocorrelation. This method captures a comprehensive range of the various uncertainties involved in predicting crop insurance premium rates as opposed to the more traditional ad hoc, two-stage methods that are typically based on independent estimation and prediction. A panel data set of county-average yield data was analyzed for 290 counties in the State of Parana (Brazil) for the period of 1990 through 2002. Posterior predictive criteria are used to evaluate different model specifications. This article provides substantial improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to situations where data are limited.

Phytoplasma closely related to the pigeon pea witches`-broom phytoplasma (16Sr IX) is associated with citrus huanglongbing symptoms in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil

In February 2007, sweet orange trees with characteristic symptoms of huanglongbing (HLB) were encountered in a region of Sao Paulo state (SPs) hitherto free of HLB. These trees tested negative for the three liberibacter species associated with HLB. A polymerase chain reaction (PCR) product from symptomatic fruit columella DNA amplifications with universal primers fDI/rPI was cloned and sequenced. The corresponding agent was found to have highest 16S rDNA sequence identity (99%) with the Pigeon pea witches`-broom phytoplasma of group 16Sr IX. Sequences of PCR products obtained with phytoplasma 16S rDNA primer pairs fU5/rU3, fU5/P7 confirm these result.,;. With two primers D7f2/D7r2 designed based oil the 16S rDNA Sequence of the cloned DNA fragment, positive amplifications were obtained from more than one hundred samples including symptomatic fruits and blotchy mottle leaves. Samples positive for phytoplasmas were negative for liberibacters, except for four samples, which were positive for both the phytoplasma and `Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus`. The phytoplasma was detected by electron microscopy in the sieve tubes of midribs from symptomatic leaves. These results Show that a phytoplasma of group IX is associated with citrus HLB symptoms ill northern, central, and Southern SPs. This phytoplasma has very probably been transmitted to citrus from an external Source of inoculum, but the Putative insect vector is not yet known.

Impedimetric immunosensor for electronegative low density lipoprotein (LDL(-)) based on monoclonal antibody adsorbed on (polyvinyl formal)-gold nanoparticles matrix

Monoclonal antibodies (MAb) have been commonly applied to measure LDL in vivo and to characterize modifications of the lipids and apoprotein of the LDL particles. The electronegative low density lipoprotein (LDL(-)) has an apolipoprotein B-100 modified at oxidized events in vivo. In this work, a novel LDL-electrochemical biosensor was developed by adsorption of anti-LDL(-) MAb on an (polyvinyl formal)-gold nanoparticles (PVF-AuNPs)-modified gold electrode. Electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) and cyclic voltammetry (CV) were used to characterize the recognition of LDL-. The interaction between MAb-LDL(-) leads to a blockage in the electron transfer of the [Fe(CN)(6)](4-)/K(4)[Fe(CN)(6)](3-) redox couple, which may could result in high change in the electron transfer resistance (R(CT)) and decrease in the amperometric responses in CV analysis. The compact antibody-antigen complex introduces the insulating layer on the assembled surface, which increases the diameter of the semicircle, resulting in a high R(CT), and the charge transferring rate constant k(0) decreases from 18.2 x 10(-6) m/s to 4.6 x 10(-6) m/s. Our results suggest that the interaction between MAb and lipoprotein can be quantitatively assessed by the modified electrode. The PVF-AuNPs-MAb system exhibited a sensitive response to LDL(-), which could be used as a biosensor to quantify plasmatic levels of LDL(-). (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Systemic Model for Diagnosis of the Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises from Two Cities from the Countryside of the State of So Paulo in Brazil

This article presents a proposal of a systemic model composed for the micro and small companies (MSE) of the region of Ribeiro Preto and the agents which influenced their environment. The proposed model was based on Stafford Beer`s (Diagnosing the system for organizations. Chichester, Wiley, 1985) systemic methodologies VSM (Viable System Model) and on Werner Ulrich`s (1983) CSH (Critical Systems Heuristics). The VSM is a model for the diagnosis of the structure of an organization and of its flows of information through the application of the cybernetics concepts (Narvarte, In El Modelo del Sistema Viable-MSV: experiencias de su aplicacin en Chile. Proyecto Cerebro Colectivo del IAS, Santiago, 2001). On the other hand, CSH focus on the context of the social group applied to the systemic vision as a counterpoint to the organizational management view considered by the VSM. MSE of Ribeiro Preto and Sertozinho had been analyzed as organizations inserted in systems that relate and integrate with other systems concerning the public administration, entities of representation and promotion agencies. The research questions: which are the bonds of interaction among the subsystems in this process and who are the agents involved? The systemic approach not only diagnosed a social group, formed by MSE of Ribeiro Preto and Sertozinho, public authorities and support entities, but could also delineate answers that aimed the clarification of obscure questions generating financial assistance to the formularization of efficient actions for the development of this system.

The use of electrospray ionization tandem mass spectrometry on the structural characterization of novel asymmetric metallo-organic supermolecules, based on pentafluorophenylporphyrins and ruthenium complexes

The novel asymmetric metallo-organic triads cis- and trans-[B(4-py)BPFPH(2){Ru(3)O(Ac)(6)(py)(2)}(Ru(bpy)(2)Cl}](PF(6))(2) (5a,b) for which cis- and trans-B(4-py)BPFPH(2)=5,10-bis(pentafluorophenyl)-15,20-bis(4-pyridyl)porphyrin and 5,15-bis(pentafluorophenyl)-10,20-bis(4-pyridyl)porphyrin, respectively; Ac = acetate; py = pyridine and bpy = 2,2`-bipyridine, as well as their corresponding monosubstituted dyads cis- and trans-[B(4-py)BPFPH(2){Ru(3)O(Ac)(6)(py)(2)}]PF(6) (4a,b) have been structurally characterized via electrospray ionization mass spectrometry (ESI-MS and ESI-MS/MS). The ESI-MS of dyads 4a,b display two characteristic Ru-multicomponent clusters of isotopologue ions corresponding to singly charged ions 4a,b(+) of m/z 1629 and doubly charged ions [4a,b+H](2+) of m/z 815 and the triads 5a,b are detected by ESI-MS as the intact doubly charged cluster of isotopologue ions of m/z 1039 [5a,b](2+). The ESI-MS/MS of 4a,b(+), [4a,b+H](2+) and [5a,b](2+) reveal characteristic dissociation pathways, which confirm the structural assignments providing additional information on the intrinsic binding strengths of the gaseous ions. Although the gas-phase behavior of each pair of isomers was rather similar, the less symmetric dyads 4a,b are distinguished via the (1)H NMR spectral profile of the pyrrolic signals. Exploratory photophysical assays have shown that both modifying motifs alter the porphyrinic core emission profile, opening the possibility to use these asymmetric systems as photophysical devices. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Leishmania (Viannia) braziliensis identification by PCR in the state of Para, Brazil

The incidence of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is increasing and there is limited surveillance of Leishmania species throughout the world. We identified the species associated with CL in a region of Amazonia, an area recognized for its Leishmania species variability. Clinical findings were analyzed and correlated with the species identified in 93 patients. PCR assays were based on small subunit ribosomal DNA (SSU-rDNA) and G6PD, and were performed in a laboratory located 3,500 km away. Leishmania (V.) braziliensis was identified in 53 patients (57%). The other 40 patients (43%) carried a different species (including six cases of L (L) amazonensis). Molecular methods can be employed, using special media, to allow transport to distant laboratories. L (V.) braziliensis is the most common species in the area of Para. The location of ulcers can suggest CL species (C) 2010 Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluating SVM and MLDA in the extraction of discriminant regions for mental state prediction

Pattern recognition methods have been successfully applied in several functional neuroimaging studies. These methods can be used to infer cognitive states, so-called brain decoding. Using such approaches, it is possible to predict the mental state of a subject or a stimulus class by analyzing the spatial distribution of neural responses. In addition it is possible to identify the regions of the brain containing the information that underlies the classification. The Support Vector Machine (SVM) is one of the most popular methods used to carry out this type of analysis. The aim of the current study is the evaluation of SVM and Maximum uncertainty Linear Discrimination Analysis (MLDA) in extracting the voxels containing discriminative information for the prediction of mental states. The comparison has been carried out using fMRI data from 41 healthy control subjects who participated in two experiments, one involving visual-auditory stimulation and the other based on bimanual fingertapping sequences. The results suggest that MLDA uses significantly more voxels containing discriminative information (related to different experimental conditions) to classify the data. On the other hand, SVM is more parsimonious and uses less voxels to achieve similar classification accuracies. In conclusion, MLDA is mostly focused on extracting all discriminative information available, while SVM extracts the information which is sufficient for classification. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Magnetic characterization by SQUID and FMR of a biocompatible ferrofluid based on Fe(3)O(4)

Biocompatible superparamagnetic iron oxide nanoparticles of magnetite coated with dextran were magnetically characterized using the techniques of SQUID (superconducting quantum interference device) magnetometry and ferromagnetic resonance (FMR). The SQUID magnetometry characterization was performed by isothermal measurements under applied magnetic field using the methods of zero-field-cooling (ZFC) and field-cooling (FC). The magnetic behavior of the nanoparticles indicated their superparamagnetic nature and it was assumed that they consisted exclusively of monodomains. The transition to a blocked state was observed at the temperature T(B) = (43 +/- 1) K for frozen ferrofluid and at (52 +/- 1) K for the lyophilized ferrofluid samples. The FMR analysis showed that the derivative peak-to-peak linewidth (Delta H(PP)), gyromagnetic factor (g), number of spins (N(S)), and spin-spin relaxation time (T(2)) were strongly dependent on both temperature and super-exchange interaction. This information is important for possible nanotechnological applications, mainly those which are strongly dependent on the magnetic parameters.

Limitations of the Mini-Mental State Examination for screening dementia in a community with low socioeconomic status

The Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) is the most widely used instrument for the screening of cognitive impairment worldwide, but its ability to produce valid estimates of dementia in populations of low socioeconomic status and minimal literacy skills has not been adequately established. The authors investigated the psychometric properties of the MMSE in a community-based sample of older Brazilians. Cross-sectional one-phase population-based study of all residents of pre-defined areas of the city of Sao Paulo, aged 65 years or over. The Brazilian version of the MMSE was compared with DSM-IV diagnosis of dementia assessed with a harmonized one-phase procedure developed by the 10/66 Dementia Research Group. Analyses were performed with 1,933 participants of the SPAH study. Receiver operating characteristic analysis showed that the MMSE cut-point of 14/15 was associated with 78.7% sensitivity and 77.8% specificity for the diagnosis of dementia amongst participants with no formal education, and the cut-point 17/18 with 91.9% sensitivity and 89.5% specificity for those with at least 1 year of formal education (areas under the curves 0.87 and 0.94, respectively; P = 0.03). Even with these best fitting cut-points, the MMSE estimate of the prevalence of dementia was four times higher than determined by the DSM-IV criteria. Education, age, sex and income influenced MMSE scores, independently of dementia caseness. The MMSE is an adequate tool for screening dementia in older adults with minimum literacy skills, but misclassification is unacceptably high for older adults who are illiterate, which has serious consequences for research and clinical practice in low and middle income countries, where the proportion of illiteracy among older adults is high.

Association between degenerative aortic valve disease and long-term exposure to cardiovascular risk factors: results of the longitudinal population-based KORA/MONICA survey

Degenerative aortic valve disease (DAVD), a common finding in the elderly, is associated with an increased risk of death due to cardiovascular causes. Taking advantage of its longitudinal design, this study evaluates the prevalence of DAVD and its temporal associations with long-term exposure to cardiovascular risk factors in the general population. We studied 953 subjects (aged 25-74 years) from a random sample of German residents. Risk factors had been determined at a baseline investigation in 1994/95. At a follow-up investigation, 10 years later, standardized echocardiography determined aortic valve morphology and aortic valve area (AVA) as well as left ventricular geometry and function. At the follow-up study, the overall prevalence of DAVD was 28%. In logistic regression models adjusting for traditional cardiovascular risk factors at baseline age (OR 2.0 [1.7-2.3] per 10 years, P < 0.001), active smoking (OR 1.7 [1.1-2.4], P = 0.009) and elevated total cholesterol levels (OR 1.2 [1.1-1.3] per increase of 20 mg/dL, P < 0.001) were significantly related to DAVD at follow-up. Furthermore, age, baseline status of smoking, and total cholesterol level were significant predictors of a smaller AVA at follow-up study. In contrast, hypertension and obesity had no detectable relationship with long-term changes of aortic valve structure. In the general population we observed a high prevalence of DAVD that is associated with long-term exposure to elevated cholesterol levels and active smoking. These findings strengthen the notion that smoking cessation and cholesterol lowering are promising treatment targets for prevention of DAVD.

Toxoplasma gondii isolates: Multi locus RFLP-PCR genotyping from human patients in Sao Paulo State, Brazil identified distinct genotypes

This study investigated the genetic characteristics of Toxoplasma gondii samples collected from 62 patients with toxoplasmosis in Sao Paulo State, Brazil. DNA samples were isolated from blood, cerebrospinal fluid and amniotic fluids of 25 patients with cerebral toxoplasmosis and AIDS, two patients with acute toxoplasmosis, 12 patients with ocular toxoplasmosis, six newborns with congenital toxoplasmosis and 17 pregnant women with acute infection. Diagnosis of toxoplasmosis was based in clinical, radiological and laboratory features. Genotyping was performed using multilocus PCR-RFLP genetic markers including SAG1, SAG2, 5`- and 3`-SAG2, alt.SAG2, SAG3, BTUB, GRA6, C22-8, c29-2, L358, PK1 and Apico. Among the 62 clinical samples, 20 (32%) were successfully genotyped at eight or more genetic loci and were grouped to three distinct genotypes. Eighteen samples belonged to ToxoDB Genotype #65 and the other two samples were identified as ToxoDB Genotypes #6 and #71, respectively (http://toxodb.org/toxo/). Patients presenting Genotypes #6 and #71 had severe and atypical cerebral toxoplasmosis, characterized by diffuse encephalitis without extensive brain lesions. These results indicate that T. gondii Genotype #65 may have a high frequency in causing human toxoplasmosis in Sao Paulo State, Brazil. This unusual finding highlights the need to investigate the possible association of parasite genotypes with human toxoplasmosis. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Fed State Protein Turnover in Healthy Older Persons under a Usual Protein-Rich Diet

The objective of this study was to verify the protein turnover rates of healthy older persons under a usual protein-rich diet and to compare values to those described in the literature. This cross-sectional study was conducted at Metabolism Unit, Univ. Hospital of the School of Medicine of Ribeirao Preto, Univ. of Sao Paulo, Brazil. In this study, 7 healthy older persons aged 65.4 +/- 2.8 y, with BMI 22.7 +/- 2.4 kg/m(2) and a mean daily protein intake of 1.34 g of protein/kg were studied. A 9-h whole-body (15)N-glycine single-dose study was performed after an overnight fast. During the study, each subject received 6 isoenergetic, isonitrogenous meals at 2-h intervals based on their average intake. Ammonium, urea, and total nitrogen were quantified and analyzed by mass spectrometry, with the determination of total protein turnover rates by the (15)N-glycine method. The results show that total nitrogen output was 3.2 +/- 0.96 g/N and intake 7.7 +/- 1 g/N, (15)N nitrogen flux was 30.6 +/- 6.3 g/9 h. Endogenous nitrogen balance was positive (4.5g +/- g/N in 9 h). In conclusion, the protein turnover of healthy older persons under a usual protein-rich diet is positive during the fed state and has synthesis and degradation rates similar to those previously described in studies involving diet adaptation periods.

Altered gray matter morphometry and resting-state functional and structural connectivity in social anxiety disorder

In social anxiety disorder (SAD), impairments in limbic/paralimbic structures are associated with emotional dysregulation and inhibition of the medial prefrontal cortex (MPFq. Little is known, however, about alterations in limbic and frontal regions associated with the integrated morphometric, functional, and structural architecture of SAD. Whether altered gray matter volume is associated with altered functional and structural connectivity in SAD. Three techniques were used with 18 SAD patients and 18 healthy controls: voxel-based morphometry; resting-state functional connectivity analysis; and diffusion tensor imaging tractography. SAD patients exhibited significantly decreased gray matter volumes in the right posterior inferior temporal gyrus (ITG) and right parahippocampal/hippocampal gyrus (PHG/HIP). Gray matter volumes in these two regions negatively correlated with the fear factor of the Liebowitz Social Anxiety Scale. In addition, we found increased functional connectivity in SAD patients between the right posterior ITG and the left inferior occipital gyrus, and between the right PHF/HIP and left middle temporal gyms. SAD patients had increased right MPFC volume, along with enhanced structural connectivity in the genu of the corpus callosum. Reduced limbic/paralimbic volume, together with increased resting-state functional connectivity, suggests the existence of a compensatory mechanism in SAD. Increased MPFC volume, consonant with enhanced structural connectivity, suggests a long-time overgeneralization of structural connectivity and a role of this area in the mediation of clinical severity. Overall, our results may provide a valuable basis for future studies combining morphometric, functional and anatomical data in the search for a comprehensive understanding of the neural circuitry underlying SAD. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analysis of marine bivalve shellfish from the fish market in Santos city, Sao Paulo state, Brazil, for Toxoplasma gondii

The aim of this study was to determine if Toxoplasma gondii are present in oysters (Crassostrea rhizophorae) and mussels (Mytella guyanensis) under natural conditions using a bioassay in mice and molecular detection methods. We first compared two standard protocols for DNA extraction, phenol-chloroform (PC) and guanidine-thiocyanate (GT), for both molluscs. A total of 300 oysters and 300 mussels were then acquired from the fish market in Santos city, Sao Paulo state, Brazil, between March and August of 2008 and divided into 60 groups of 5 oysters and 20 groups of 15 mussels. To isolate the parasite, five mice were orally inoculated with sieved tissue homogenates from each group of oysters or mussels. For molecular detection of T. gondii, DNA from mussels was extracted using the PC method and DNA from oysters was extracted using the GT method. A nested-PCR (Polymerase Chain Reaction) based on the amplification of a 155 bp fragment from the B1 gene of T. gondii was then performed. Eleven PCR-RFLP (Restriction Fragment Length Polymorphism) markers, SAG1, SAG2, SAG3, BTUB, GRA6, c22-8, c29-2, L358, PK1, CS3 and Apico, were used to genotype positive samples. There was no isolation of the parasite by bioassay in mice. T. gondii was not detected in any of the groups of mussels by nested-PCR. DNA of T. gondii was apparently detected by nested-PCR in 2 groups of oysters (3.3%). Genotyping of these two positive samples was not successful. The results suggest that oysters of the species C. rhizophorae, the most common species from the coast of Sao Paulo, can filter and retain T. gondii oocysts from the marine environment. Ingestion of raw oysters as a potential transmission source of T. gondii to humans and marine mammals should be further investigated. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparison of gonadorelin products in lactating dairy cows: Efficacy based on induction of ovulation of an accessory follicle and circulating luteinizing hormone profiles

This study evaluated whether the four gonadorelin products that are commercially available in the United States produce comparable ovulation responses in lactating cows. Dairy cows at 7 d after last gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) treatment of Ovsynch (Day 7), with a corpus luteum (CL) >= 15 mm and at least one follicle >= 10 mm, were evaluated for response to GnRH treatment. Selected cows were randomized to receive (100 mu g; im): (1) Cystorelin (n = 146): (2) Factrel (n = 132): (3) Fertagyl (n = 140); or (4) Ovacyst (n = 140). On Day 14, cows were examined for Ovulation by detection of an accessory CL. Circulating luteinizing hormone (LH) concentrations were also evaluated in some cows after treatment with 100 mu g (n = 10 per group) or 50 mu g (n = 5 per group) GnRH. Statistical analyses were performed with the procedures MIXED and GLIMMIX of the SAS program. Percentage of cows ovulating differed (P < 0.01) among groups, with that for Factrel being lower (55.3%) than that for Cystorelin (76.7%), Fertagyl (73.6%), or Ovacyst (85.0%), There was no effect of batch, parity, or follicle size on ovulation response. but increasing body condition score decreased Ovulation response. There was a much greater LH release in cows treated with 100 mu g than in those treated with 50 mu g, but there were no detectable differences among products in time to LH peak, peak LH concentration, or area under the LH curve and no treatment effects nor treatment by time interactions on circulating LH profile. Thus, ovulation response to Factrel on Day 7 of the cycle was lower than that for other commercial GnRH products, although a definitive mechanism for this difference between products was not demonstrated. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.