Evaluation of biologic occupational risk control practices: Quality indicators development and validation

Background: There is growing demand for the adoption of qualification systems for health care practices. This study is aimed at describing the development and validation of indicators for evaluation of biologic occupational risk control programs. Methods: The study involved 3 stages: (1) setting up a research team, (2) development of indicators, and (3) validation of the indicators by a team of specialists recruited to validate each attribute of the developed indicators. The content validation method was used for the validation, and a psychometric scale was developed for the specialists` assessment. A consensus technique was used, and every attribute that obtained a Content Validity Index of at least 0.75 was approved. Results: Eight indicators were developed for the evaluation of the biologic occupational risk prevention program, with emphasis on accidents caused by sharp instruments and occupational tuberculosis prevention. The indicators included evaluation of the structure, process, and results at the prevention and biologic risk control levels. The majority of indicators achieved a favorable consensus regarding all validated attributes. Conclusion: The developed indicators were considered validated, and the method used for construction and validation proved to be effective.

Using Bayesian networks with rule extraction to infer the risk of weed infestation in a corn-crop

This paper describes the modeling of a weed infestation risk inference system that implements a collaborative inference scheme based on rules extracted from two Bayesian network classifiers. The first Bayesian classifier infers a categorical variable value for the weed-crop competitiveness using as input categorical variables for the total density of weeds and corresponding proportions of narrow and broad-leaved weeds. The inferred categorical variable values for the weed-crop competitiveness along with three other categorical variables extracted from estimated maps for the weed seed production and weed coverage are then used as input for a second Bayesian network classifier to infer categorical variables values for the risk of infestation. Weed biomass and yield loss data samples are used to learn the probability relationship among the nodes of the first and second Bayesian classifiers in a supervised fashion, respectively. For comparison purposes, two types of Bayesian network structures are considered, namely an expert-based Bayesian classifier and a naive Bayes classifier. The inference system focused on the knowledge interpretation by translating a Bayesian classifier into a set of classification rules. The results obtained for the risk inference in a corn-crop field are presented and discussed. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A classification methodology for the risk of weed infestation using fuzzy logic

Despite modern weed control practices, weeds continue to be a threat to agricultural production. Considering the variability of weeds, a classification methodology for the risk of infestation in agricultural zones using fuzzy logic is proposed. The inputs for the classification are attributes extracted from estimated maps for weed seed production and weed coverage using kriging and map analysis and from the percentage of surface infested by grass weeds, in order to account for the presence of weed species with a high rate of development and proliferation. The output for the classification predicts the risk of infestation of regions of the field for the next crop. The risk classification methodology described in this paper integrates analysis techniques which may help to reduce costs and improve weed control practices. Results for the risk classification of the infestation in a maize crop field are presented. To illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed system, the risk of infestation over the entire field is checked against the yield loss map estimated by kriging and also with the average yield loss estimated from a hyperbolic model.

GIS applied to geotechnical and environmental risk management in a Brazilian oil pipeline

The paper presents the development of a decision support system for the management of geotechnical and environmental risks in oil pipelines using a geographical information system. The system covers a 48.5 km long section of the So Paulo to Brasilia (OSBRA) oil pipeline, which crosses three municipalities in the northeast region of the So Paulo state (Brazil) and represents an area of 205.8 km(2). The spatial database was created using geo-processing procedures, surface and intrusive investigations and geotechnical reports. The risk assessment was based mainly on qualitative models (relative numeric weights and multicriteria decision analysis) and considered pluvial erosion, slope movements, soil corrosion and third party activities. The maps were produced at a scale of 1:10,000.

Fuzzy risk index for power transformer failures due to external short-circuits

A novel methodology to assess the risk of power transformer failures caused by external faults, such as short-circuit, taking the paper insulation condition into account, is presented. The risk index is obtained by contrasting the insulation paper condition with the probability that the transformer withstands the short-circuit current flowing along the winding during an external fault. In order to assess the risk, this probability and the value of the degree of polymerization of the insulating paper are regarded as inputs of a type-2 fuzzy logic system (T2-FLS), which computes the fuzzy risk level. A Monte Carlo simulation has been used to find the survival function of the currents flowing through the transformer winding during a single-phase or a three-phase short-circuit. The Roy Billinton Test System and a real power system have been used to test the results. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk-based decision making method for maintenance policy selection of thermal power plant equipment

This study presents a decision-making method for maintenance policy selection of power plants equipment. The method is based on risk analysis concepts. The method first step consists in identifying critical equipment both for power plant operational performance and availability based on risk concepts. The second step involves the proposal of a potential maintenance policy that could be applied to critical equipment in order to increase its availability. The costs associated with each potential maintenance policy must be estimated, including the maintenance costs and the cost of failure that measures the critical equipment failure consequences for the power plant operation. Once the failure probabilities and the costs of failures are estimated, a decision-making procedure is applied to select the best maintenance policy. The decision criterion is to minimize the equipment cost of failure, considering the costs and likelihood of occurrence of failure scenarios. The method is applied to the analysis of a lubrication oil system used in gas turbines journal bearings. The turbine has more than 150 MW nominal output, installed in an open cycle thermoelectric power plant. A design modification with the installation of a redundant oil pump is proposed for lubricating oil system availability improvement. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimal irrigation depth for bean crops considering water constraints and farmer`s risk aversion level

Nowadays, the rising competition for the use of water and environmental resources with consequent restrictions for farmers should change the paradigm in terms of irrigation concepts, or rather, in order to attain economical efficiency other than to supply water requirement for the crop. Therefore, taking into account the social and economical role of bean activity in Brazil, as well as the risk inherent to crop due to its high sensibility to both deficit and excessive water, the optimization methods regarding to irrigation management have become more interesting and essential. This study intends to present a way to determine the optimal water supply, considering different combinations between desired bean yield and level of risk, bringing as a result a graph with the former associated with the latter, depending on different water depths.

ECONOMICAL OCCUPATION OF AGRICULTURAL AREA OF PIRACICABA (SAO PAULO STATE, BRAZIL), INCLUDING RISK THROUGH LINEAR PROGRAMMING

The economic occupation of an area of 500 ha for Piracicaba was studied with the irrigated cultures of maize, tomato, sugarcane and beans, having used models of deterministic linear programming and linear programming including risk for the Target-Motad model, where two situations had been analyzed. In the deterministic model the area was the restrictive factor and the water was not restrictive for none of the tested situations. For the first situation the gotten maximum income was of R$ 1,883,372.87 and for the second situation it was of R$ 1,821,772.40. In the model including risk a producer that accepts risk can in the first situation get the maximum income of R$ 1,883,372. 87 with a minimum risk of R$ 350 year(-1), and in the second situation R$ 1,821,772.40 with a minimum risk of R$ 40 year(-1). Already a producer averse to the risk can get in the first situation a maximum income of R$ 1,775,974.81 with null risk and for the second situation R$ 1.707.706, 26 with null risk, both without water restriction. These results stand out the importance of the inclusion of the risk in supplying alternative occupations to the producer, allowing to a producer taking of decision considered the risk aversion and the pretension of income.

Allele-Specific Expression of the MAOA Gene and X Chromosome Inactivation in In Vitro Produced Bovine Embryos

During embryogenesis, one of the two X chromosomes is inactivated in embryos. The production of embryos in vitro may affect epigenetic mechanisms that could alter the expression of genes related to embryo development and X chromosome inactivation (XCI). The aim of this study was to understand XCI during in vitro, pre-implantation bovine embryo development by characterizing the allele-specific expression pattern of the X chromosome-linked gene, monoamine oxidase A (MAOA). Two pools of ten embryos, comprised of the 4-, 8- to 16-cell, morula, blastocyst, and expanded blastocyst stages, were collected. Total RNA from embryos was isolated, and the RT-PCR-RFLP technique was used to observe expression of the MAOA gene. The DNA amplicons were also sequenced using the dideoxy sequencing method. MAOA mRNA was detected, and allele-specific expression was identified in each pool of embryos. We showed the presence of both the maternal and paternal alleles in the 4-, 8-to 16-cell, blastocyst and expanded blastocyst embryos, but only the maternal allele was present in the morula stage. Therefore, we can affirm that the paternal X chromosome is totally inactivated at the morula stage and reactivated at the blastocyst stage. To our knowledge, this is the first report of allele-specific expression of an X-linked gene that is subject to XCI in in vitro bovine embryos from the 4-cell to expanded blastocyst stages. We have established a pattern of XCI in our in vitro embryo production system that can be useful as a marker to assist the development of new protocols for in vitro embryo production. Mol. Reprod. Dev. MoL Reprod. Dev. 77: 615-621, 2010. (C) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Increased MMA concentration and body mass index are associated with spontaneous abortion in Brazilian women A pilot study

Background: The pathophysiology of spontaneous abortion is complex and may involve the interaction of genetic and environmental factors. We evaluated the predictors of spontaneous abortion in Brazilian pregnant women. The effects of age, gestational age. body mass index (BMI), cigarette smoking, alcohol ingestion, use of multivitamins and concentrations of vitamins (folate, cobalamin and vitamin 136) and vitamin-dependent metabolites were analyzed. Methods: Study population included 100 healthy women that attended pre-natal care in 2 health centers of Sao Paulo, Brazil, and in whom pregnancy outcome was known. Folate and cobalamin status was measured in blood specimens collected between 4 and 16 weeks. The genotypes for 8 gene polymorphisms were evaluated by PCR-RFLP. Results: Eighty-eight women had normal pregnancy outcome (Group 1), while 12 experienced a miscarriage after blood collection (Group 2). Increased methylmalonic acid (MMA) concentrations were found in Group 2 (median [25th-75th percentile]=274 [149-425] nmol/l) relative to Group 1 (138 [98-185]) (P<0.01). No differences between the groups were observed for serum cobalamin, serum or red cell folate, and serum total homocysteine or allele frequencies for 8 polymorphisms. In a conditional logistic regression analysis including age, gestational age, serum creatinine, MMA, cystathionine, body mass index (BMI), cigarette smoking, alcohol ingestion and use of multivitamins the risk of abortion was significantly associated with MMA (OR [95% CI] = 3.80 [1.36, 10.62] per quartile increase in MMA), BMI (OR [95% CI] = 5.49 [1.29,23.39] per quartile) and gestational age (OR [95% CI] = 0.10 [0.01, 0.77] per increase of interval in gestational age). Conclusions: Increased serum MMA and BMI concentrations are associated with spontaneous abortion in Brazilian women. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Influence of a probiotic soy product on fecal microbiota and its association with cardiovascular risk factors in an animal model

Background: Previous work showed that daily ingestion of an aqueous soy extract fermented with Enterococcus faecium CRL 183 and Lactobacillus helveticus 416, supplemented or not with isoflavones, reduced the total cholesterol and non-HDL-cholesterol levels, increased the high-density lipoprotein (HDL) concentration and inhibited the raising of autoantibody against oxidized low-density lipoprotein (ox-LDL Ab) and the development of atherosclerotic lesions. Objective: The aim of this study was to characterize the fecal microbiota in order to investigate the possible correlation between fecal microbiota, serum lipid parameters and atherosclerotic lesion development in rabbits with induced hypercholesterolemia, that ingested the aqueous soy extract fermented with Enterococcus faecium CRL 183 and Lactobacillus helveticus 416. Methods: The rabbits were randomly allocated to five experimental groups (n = 6): control (C), hypercholesterolemic (H), hypercholesterolemic plus unfermented soy product (HUF), hypercholesterolemic plus fermented soy product (HF) and hypercholesterolemic plus isoflavone-supplemented fermented soy product (HIF). Lipid parameters and microbiota composition were analyzed on days 0 and 60 of the treatment and the atherosclerotic lesions were quantified at the end of the experiment. The fecal microbiota was characterized by enumerating the Lactobacillus spp., Bifidobacterium spp., Enterococcus spp., Enterobacteria and Clostridium spp. populations. Results: After 60 days of the experiment, intake of the probiotic soy product was correlated with significant increases (P < 0.05) on Lactobacillus spp., Bifidobacterium spp. and Enterococcus spp. and a decrease in the Enterobacteria population. A strong correlation was observed between microbiota composition and lipid profile. Populations of Enterococcus spp., Lactobacillus spp. and Bifidobacterium spp. were negatively correlated with total cholesterol, non-HDL-cholesterol, autoantibodies against oxidized LDL (ox-LDL Ab) and lesion size. HDL-C levels were positively correlated with Lactobacillus spp., Bifidobacterium spp., and Enterococcus spp. populations. Conclusion: In conclusion, daily ingestion of the probiotic soy product, supplemented or not with isoflavones, may contribute to a beneficial balance of the fecal microbiota and this modulation is associated with an improved cholesterol profile and inhibition of atherosclerotic lesion development.

A common matrix metalloproteinase (MMP)-2 polymorphism affects plasma MMP-2 levels in subjects environmentally exposed to mercury

Mercury (Hg) exposure is associated with disease conditions, including cardiovascular problems. Although the mechanisms implicated in these complications have not been precisely defined yet, matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) may be involved. The gene encoding MMP-2 presents genetic polymorphisms which affect the expression and activity level of this enzyme. A common polymorphism of MMP-2 gene is the C(-1306)T (rs 243865), which is known to disrupt a Sp1-type promoter site (CCACC box), thus leading to lower promoter activity associated with the T allele. This study aimed at examining how this polymorphism affects the circulating MMP-2 levels and its endogenous inhibitor, the tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase-2 (TIMP-2) in 210 subjects environmentally exposed to Hg. Total blood and plasma Hg concentrations were determined by inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). MMP-2 and TIMP-2 concentrations were measured in plasma samples by gelatin zymography and ELISA, respectively. Genotypes for the C(-1306)T polymorphism were determined by Taqman (R) Allele Discrimination assay. We found a positive association (p = 0.0057) between plasma Hg concentrations and MMP-2/TIMP-2 (an index of net MMP-2 activity). The C(-1306)T polymorphism modified MMP-2 concentrations (p = 0.0465) and MMP-2/TIMP-2 ratio (p = 0.0060) in subjects exposed to Hg, with higher MMP-2 levels been found in subjects carrying the C allele. These findings suggest a significant interaction between the C(-1306)T polymorphism and Hg exposure, possibly increasing the risk of developing diseases in subjects with the C allele. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact of the Subprime Crisis in the Provision of Credit Risk of Major National Banks

Financial institutions are directly exposed to the credit risk, that is, the risk of the borrower not fulfill with their obligations, paying their debts in its stated periods established previously. The bank predict this type of risk, including them in their balance-sheets. In 2006/2007 there was the impact of a new financial crisis that spread around the world, known as the crisis of subprime. The objective of this study is to analyze if the provisions for credit risk or liquidation increased the sprouting of the crisis of subprime in ten major national banks, chosen accordant to their total assets. To answer this question, the balance-sheets of each one of these banks in the period of 2005 to 2007 were analyzed. This research is characterized, as for its objectives, as descriptive and as for the procedures as documentary research. It is also characterized as having a qualitative approach. The results show that the crisis of subprime has caused little impact in the credit risk provision of the analyzed institutions. It was noticed a slight increase in the provision indicators at the peak of the crisis in 2006. These percentages were reduced in, 2007, probably reflecting the economic stability of Brazil and the stagnation of the crisis Of subprime in that year, at least in relation to in our country.

Country risk, national cultural differences between partners and survival of international joint ventures in Brazil

This article aims to identify the main and interaction effects of two country-level variables, namely national distance and country risk, on the survival of international joint ventures in emerging markets. Research hypotheses predicting the negative impact of national distance and country risk on survival of international joint ventures are formulated in this article. These research hypotheses are examined in a sample of 234 international joint ventures formed in Brazil between 1973 and 2004. These international joint ventures were subjected to an event history analysis over a period of time ranging from 1973 to 2006. The empirical results show that large national cultural differences between local and foreign partners increase the instability of international joint ventures, whereas the survival of these alliances does not seem to be affected either by the economic and political uncertainty of Brazil. Furthermore, the national distance between local and foreign partners has effects on survival that are variable according to the life cycle of international joint ventures. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hierarchical risk scale of agribusiness activities

This study aims to elaborate a hierarchical risk scale (HRS) of agricultural and cattle breeding activities and to classify the main agricultural crops and cattle breeding activities according to their risk levels. The research is characterized as exploratory and quantitative and was based on previous risk assessment (MARKOWITZ, 1952) and capital cost calculation (SHARPE, 1964) work for other business segments. The calculations on agricultural and cattle breeding data were processed for the period from 2000 to 2006. The used methods considers simplifications and adaptations needed to achieve the proposed objective. The final result, pioneering and embryonic, provides support to improve the management of these activities that are so essential to produce food for society.