95 resultados para Real Options Theory


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In this paper a bond graph methodology is used to model incompressible fluid flows with viscous and thermal effects. The distinctive characteristic of these flows is the role of pressure, which does not behave as a state variable but as a function that must act in such a way that the resulting velocity field has divergence zero. Velocity and entropy per unit volume are used as independent variables for a single-phase, single-component flow. Time-dependent nodal values and interpolation functions are introduced to represent the flow field, from which nodal vectors of velocity and entropy are defined as state variables. The system for momentum and continuity equations is coincident with the one obtained by using the Galerkin method for the weak formulation of the problem in finite elements. The integral incompressibility constraint is derived based on the integral conservation of mechanical energy. The weak formulation for thermal energy equation is modeled with true bond graph elements in terms of nodal vectors of temperature and entropy rates, resulting a Petrov-Galerkin method. The resulting bond graph shows the coupling between mechanical and thermal energy domains through the viscous dissipation term. All kind of boundary conditions are handled consistently and can be represented as generalized effort or flow sources. A procedure for causality assignment is derived for the resulting graph, satisfying the Second principle of Thermodynamics. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Here, we study the stable integration of real time optimization (RTO) with model predictive control (MPC) in a three layer structure. The intermediate layer is a quadratic programming whose objective is to compute reachable targets to the MPC layer that lie at the minimum distance to the optimum set points that are produced by the RTO layer. The lower layer is an infinite horizon MPC with guaranteed stability with additional constraints that force the feasibility and convergence of the target calculation layer. It is also considered the case in which there is polytopic uncertainty in the steady state model considered in the target calculation. The dynamic part of the MPC model is also considered unknown but it is assumed to be represented by one of the models of a discrete set of models. The efficiency of the methods presented here is illustrated with the simulation of a low order system. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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This paper studies a simplified methodology to integrate the real time optimization (RTO) of a continuous system into the model predictive controller in the one layer strategy. The gradient of the economic objective function is included in the cost function of the controller. Optimal conditions of the process at steady state are searched through the use of a rigorous non-linear process model, while the trajectory to be followed is predicted with the use of a linear dynamic model, obtained through a plant step test. The main advantage of the proposed strategy is that the resulting control/optimization problem can still be solved with a quadratic programming routine at each sampling step. Simulation results show that the approach proposed may be comparable to the strategy that solves the full economic optimization problem inside the MPC controller where the resulting control problem becomes a non-linear programming problem with a much higher computer load. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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In this paper, we consider a real-life heterogeneous fleet vehicle routing problem with time windows and split deliveries that occurs in a major Brazilian retail group. A single depot attends 519 stores of the group distributed in 11 Brazilian states. To find good solutions to this problem, we propose heuristics as initial solutions and a scatter search (SS) approach. Next, the produced solutions are compared with the routes actually covered by the company. Our results show that the total distribution cost can be reduced significantly when such methods are used. Experimental testing with benchmark instances is used to assess the merit of our proposed procedure. (C) 2008 Published by Elsevier B.V.

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The classical approach for acoustic imaging consists of beamforming, and produces the source distribution of interest convolved with the array point spread function. This convolution smears the image of interest, significantly reducing its effective resolution. Deconvolution methods have been proposed to enhance acoustic images and have produced significant improvements. Other proposals involve covariance fitting techniques, which avoid deconvolution altogether. However, in their traditional presentation, these enhanced reconstruction methods have very high computational costs, mostly because they have no means of efficiently transforming back and forth between a hypothetical image and the measured data. In this paper, we propose the Kronecker Array Transform ( KAT), a fast separable transform for array imaging applications. Under the assumption of a separable array, it enables the acceleration of imaging techniques by several orders of magnitude with respect to the fastest previously available methods, and enables the use of state-of-the-art regularized least-squares solvers. Using the KAT, one can reconstruct images with higher resolutions than was previously possible and use more accurate reconstruction techniques, opening new and exciting possibilities for acoustic imaging.

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In this technical note we consider the mean-variance hedging problem of a jump diffusion continuous state space financial model with the re-balancing strategies for the hedging portfolio taken at discrete times, a situation that more closely reflects real market conditions. A direct expression based on some change of measures, not depending on any recursions, is derived for the optimal hedging strategy as well as for the ""fair hedging price"" considering any given payoff. For the case of a European call option these expressions can be evaluated in a closed form.

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Computer viruses are an important risk to computational systems endangering either corporations of all sizes or personal computers used for domestic applications. Here, classical epidemiological models for disease propagation are adapted to computer networks and, by using simple systems identification techniques a model called SAIC (Susceptible, Antidotal, Infectious, Contaminated) is developed. Real data about computer viruses are used to validate the model. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Introduction: Porphyromonas gingivalis and Tannerella forsythia are anaerobic bacteria commonly involved in root canal infections. Although previous investigations have assessed these species by strictly qualitative approaches, accurate determination of their cell levels by a sensitive quantitative technique may contribute with additional information regarding relevance in pain of endodontic origin. Method: The root canal levels of P gingivalis, T forsythia, and total bacteria were investigated by a quantitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay based on unique copy molecular markers. A total of 32 symptomatic (n = 14) and asymptomatic (n = 18) cases of endodontic infections were analyzed. Root canal samples were collected; genomic DNA was extracted and submitted to SYBR Green I real-time PCR targeting the rgpB (P gingivalis), bspA (T forsythia), and rpoB (total bacteria) single copy genes. Results: Overall, R gingivalis, T forsythia, and the coexistence of both species were encountered in 28%, 66%, and 22% of the subjects, respectively. P gingivalis and T forsythia levels ranged from 5.65 x 10(-6) to 1.20 x 10(-2) and from 5.76 x 10(-6) to 1.35 x 10(-1). T forsythia was highly prevalent and numerous in the study groups, whereas P gingivalis was moderately frequent and less abundant, displaying 19-fold lower average levels than the former. Conclusions: The endodontic levels of P gingivalis and T forsythia, individually or in conjunction, did not display significant associations with the manifestation of pain of endodontic origin. (J Endod 2009,35:1518-1524)

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Modern lifestyle markedly changed eating habits worldwide, with an increasing demand for ready-to-eat foods, such as minimally processed fruits and leafy greens. Packaging and storage conditions of those products may favor the growth of psychrotrophic bacteria, including the pathogen Listeria monocytogenes. In this work, minimally processed leafy vegetables samples (n = 162) from retail market from Ribeirao Preto, Sao Paulo, Brazil, were tested for the presence or absence of Listeria spp. by the immunoassay Listeria Rapid Test, Oxoid. Two L. monocytogenes positive and six artificially contaminated samples of minimally processed leafy vegetables were evaluated by the Most Probable Number (MPN) with detection by classical culture method and also culture method combined with real-time PCR (RTi-PCR) for 16S rRNA genes of L monocytogenes. Positive MPN enrichment tubes were analyzed by RTi-PCR with primers specific for L. monocytogenes using the commercial preparation ABSOLUTET (TM) QPCR SYBR (R) Green Mix (ABgene, UK). Real-time PCR assay presented good exclusivity and inclusivity results and no statistical significant difference was found in comparison with the conventional culture method (p < 0.05). Moreover, RTi-PCR was fist and easy to perform, with MPN results obtained in ca. 48 h for RTi-PCR in comparison to 7 days for conventional method. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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A macrodynamic model is proposed in which the real exchange rate and the elasticity of labour supply interact defining different trajectories of growth and income distribution in a developing economy. Growth depends on imports of capital goods which are paid with exports (there are no capital flows) and hence is constrained by equilibrium in current account. The role of the elasticity of labour supply is to prevent the real exchange rate from appreciating as the economy grows, thereby sustaining international competitiveness. The model allows for endogenous technological change and considers the impact of migration from the subsistence to the modern sector on the cumulative (Kaldor-Verdoorn) process of learning.

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The traditional theory of price index numbers is based on the law of one price. But in the real world, we frequently observe the existence of an equilibrium price dispersion instead of one price of equilibrium. This article discusses the effects of price dispersion on two price indexes: the cost of living index and the consumer price index. With price dispersion and consumer searching for the lowest price, these indexes cannot be interpreted as deterministic indicators, but as stochastic indicators, and they can be biased if price dispersion is not taken into account. A measure for the bias of the consumer price index is proposed and the article ends with an estimation of the bias based on data obtained from the consumer price index calculated for the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil, from January 1988 through December 2004. The period analysed is very interesting, because it exhibits different inflationary environments: high levels and high volatility of the rates of inflation with great price dispersion until July 1994 and low and relatively stable rates of inflation with prices less dispersed after August 1994.

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This paper analyses the applicability of the main enterprise internationalization theories to the entry of the multinational corporations into Brazil, throughout five phases of Brazilian economy, from 1850 to nowadays. It seeks to verify the explanation power of each theory over the FDI flows in Brazil. It concludes that there is a contingency relation between the theories and the phases of the economy, and. it shows such relationship in a table. In addition, it concludes that the most powerful theory along the researched period was Dunning`s eclectic paradigm, mainly due to the Localization considerations. Theoretical propositions are put forward as a contribution to future research.

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Discussion opposing the Theory of the Firm to the Theory of Stakeholders are contemporaneous and polemical. One focal point of such debates refers to which objective-function companies, should choose, whether that of the shareholders or that of the stakeholders, and whether it is possible to opt for both simultaneously. Several empirical studies. have attempted-to test a possible correlation between both functions, and there has not been any consensus-so far. The objective of the present research is to examine a gap in such discussions: is there (or not) a subordination of the stakeholders` objective-function to that of the shareholders? The research is empirical,and analytical and employs quantitative methods. Hypotheses were tested and data analyzed by using non-parametrical (chi-square test) and parametrical procedures (frequency. correlation `coefficient). Secondary data was collected from he Economitica database and from the Brazilian Institute of Social and-Economic Analyses (IBASE) website, relative to public companies that have published their Social Balance Statements following the IBASE model from 1999 to 2006, whose sample amounted to 65 companies; In order to assess the objective-function of shareholders a proxy was created based on the following three indices: ROE (return on equity), EnterpriseValue and Tobin`s Q. In order to assess the objective-function of stakeholders a proxy was created by employing the following IBASE social balance indices: internal ones (ISI), external ones (ISE), and environmental ones (IAM). The results have shown no evidence of subordination of stakeholders` objective-function to that of the shareholders in analyzed companies, negating initial expectations and calling for deeper investigation of results. Its main conclusion, which states that the attempted subordination does not take place, is limited to the sample herein investigated and calls for ongoing research aiming at improvements which may lead to sample enlargement and, as a consequence, may make feasible the application of other statistical techniques which may yield a more thorough, analysis of the studied phenomehon.

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This paper aims to study the relationship between the debt level and the asset structure of Brazilian companies of the agribusiness sector, since it is considered a current and relevant discussion: to evaluate the mechanisms for fund-raising and guarantees. The methodology of Granger`s Causality test and Autoregressive Vectors was used to conduct a comparative analysis, applied to a financial database of companies with open capital of Brazilian agribusiness, in particular the agricultural sector and Fisheries and Food and Beverages in a period of 10 years (1997-2007) from quarterly series available in the database of Economatica(R). The results demonstrated that changes in leverage generate variations in the tangibility of the companies, a fact that can be explained by the large search of funding secured by fiduciary transfer of fixed assets, which facilitates access to credit by business of the Agribusiness sector, increasing the payment time and lowering interest rates.

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This paper develops a multi-regional general equilibrium model for climate policy analysis based on the latest version of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. We develop two versions so that we can solve the model either as a fully inter-temporal optimization problem (forward-looking, perfect foresight) or recursively. The standard EPPA model on which these models are based is solved recursively, and it is necessary to simplify some aspects of it to make inter-temporal solution possible. The forward-looking capability allows one to better address economic and policy issues such as borrowing and banking of GHG allowances, efficiency implications of environmental tax recycling, endogenous depletion of fossil resources, international capital flows, and optimal emissions abatement paths among others. To evaluate the solution approaches, we benchmark each version to the same macroeconomic path, and then compare the behavior of the two versions under a climate policy that restricts greenhouse gas emissions. We find that the energy sector and CO(2) price behavior are similar in both versions (in the recursive version of the model we force the inter-temporal theoretical efficiency result that abatement through time should be allocated such that the CO(2) price rises at the interest rate.) The main difference that arises is that the macroeconomic costs are substantially lower in the forward-looking version of the model, since it allows consumption shifting as an additional avenue of adjustment to the policy. On the other hand, the simplifications required for solving the model as an optimization problem, such as dropping the full vintaging of the capital stock and fewer explicit technological options, likely have effects on the results. Moreover, inter-temporal optimization with perfect foresight poorly represents the real economy where agents face high levels of uncertainty that likely lead to higher costs than if they knew the future with certainty. We conclude that while the forward-looking model has value for some problems, the recursive model produces similar behavior in the energy sector and provides greater flexibility in the details of the system that can be represented. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.