92 resultados para Population viability analysis


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A risk score model was developed based in a population of 1,224 individuals from the general population without known diabetes aging 35 years or more from an urban Brazilian population sample in order to select individuals who should be screened in subsequent testing and improve the efficacy of public health assurance. External validation was performed in a second, independent, population from a different city ascertained through a similar epidemiological protocol. The risk score was developed by multiple logistic regression and model performance and cutoff values were derived from a receiver operating characteristic curve. Model`s capacity of predicting fasting blood glucose levels was tested analyzing data from a 5-year follow-up protocol conducted in the general population. Items independently and significantly associated with diabetes were age, BMI and known hypertension. Sensitivity, specificity and proportion of further testing necessary for the best cutoff value were 75.9, 66.9 and 37.2%, respectively. External validation confirmed the model`s adequacy (AUC equal to 0.72). Finally, model score was also capable of predicting fasting blood glucose progression in non-diabetic individuals in a 5-year follow-up period. In conclusion, this simple diabetes risk score was able to identify individuals with an increased likelihood of having diabetes and it can be used to stratify subpopulations in which performing of subsequent tests is necessary and probably cost-effective.

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Introduction: The metabolic syndrome (MS) is characterized by multiple cardiovascular risk factors such as central obesity, arterial hypertension, dislipidemia and hyperinsulinemia and is associated with a higher incidence of cardiovascular events and mortality. The aim of the present work is to describe the prevalence of MS in an urban population from a highly admixed developing country and to characterize the different correlations between this diagnosis, cardiovascular risk factors and demographic variables distributed in this population. Materials and methods: A cross-sectional study of risk factors for cardiovascular diseases was performed in the urban population of Vitoria, Brazil (n= 1507). Major cardiovascular risk factors such as smoking habits, alcohol intake, amount of physical activity, diabetes and hypertension were inquired. Blood biochemical assays were performed by standard techniques in 12 h fasting blood sample and Metabolic Syndrome (MS) was characterizes following the ATP III criteria. Results: The analysis of 1507 individuals showed a 25.43% general prevalence of MS without any significant difference between sexes, but a clear relation of the prevalence with progressing age (p=<0.0001). Even though both sexes showed similar prevalence rates, distribution of risk factors that defined MS was different between men and women, with the prevalence of hypertension, fasting hyperglycemia and hypertriglyceridemia being higher in men. Race was not an important risk factor for MS in this population as opposed to social economic class that was highly associated with the risk of MS in women as their social class was lower, but not in men. Conclusion: This cross-sectional study from a large urban population in Brazil showed a high general prevalence of MS (25.4%), which is increased as the population becomes older (especially in women) and poorer. Although prevalence was very similar in both genders, the frequency of components defining the syndrome varied greatly amongst them. In particular, a significant interaction between gender and social class was observed and may shed light in our understanding of the complex interplay between demographic and biological risk factors for metabolic syndrome. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Morbid obesity is highly prevalent in the Western World, and its consequences present a real public health challenge. Voice alterations can represent one of these consequences and represent an opportunity for interference with therapeutic methods. This particularly features of the individual`s voice was the goal of the present study. A group of 45 adult volunteers of both sexes with a BMI greater than 35 Kg/m(2) was selected among patients of the Obesity Ambulatory of the Digestive Surgery Division. The control group consisted of volunteers matched by sex, age (+/- 1 year), and smoking habits, but with a BMI bellow 30 Kg/m(2). All subjects were submitted to laryngoscopic examination, audio perceptive analysis, and voice acoustics determination. Examinations were always performed by the same doctor, and diagnoses were provided by two different physician specialists in laryngology and voice. Obese individuals exhibit the following modifications in voice feature: hoarseness, murmuring, vocal instability, altered jitter and shimmer, and reduced maximum phonation times as well the presence of voice strangulation at the end of emission. The voices of individuals with morbid obesity are different of the voice of nonobese people and demonstrate significant changes in vocal characteristics.

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Molecular epidemiological data concerning the hepatitis B virus (HBV) in Chile are not known completely. Since the HBV genotype F is the most prevalent in the country, the goal of this study was to obtain full HBV genome sequences from patients infected chronically in order to determine their subgenotypes and the occurrence of resistance-associated mutations. Twenty-one serum samples from antiviral drug-naive patients with chronic hepatitis B were subjected to full-length PCR amplification, and both strands of the whole genomes were fully sequenced. Phylogenetic analyses were performed along with reference sequences available from GenBank (n = 290). The sequences were aligned using Clustal X and edited in the SE-AL software. Bayesian phylogenetic analyses were conducted by Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations (MCMC) for 10 million generations in order to obtain the substitution tree using BEAST. The sequences were also analyzed for the presence of primary drug resistance mutations using CodonCode Aligner Software. The phylogenetic analyses indicated that all sequences were found to be the HBV subgenotype F1b, clustered into four different groups, suggesting that diverse lineages of this subgenotype may be circulating within this population of Chilean patients. J. Med. Virol. 83: 1530-1536, 2011. (C) 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

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Background Sexual contact may be the means by which head and neck cancer patients are exposed to human papillomavirus (HPV). Methods We undertook a pooled analysis of four population-based and four hospital-based case-control studies from the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology (INHANCE) consortium, with participants from Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Cuba, India, Italy, Spain, Poland, Puerto Rico, Russia and the USA. The study included 5642 head and neck cancer cases and 6069 controls. We calculated odds ratios (ORs) of associations between cancer and specific sexual behaviours, including practice of oral sex, number of lifetime sexual partners and oral sex partners, age at sexual debut, a history of same-sex contact and a history of oral-anal contact. Findings were stratified by sex and disease subsite. Results Cancer of the oropharynx was associated with having a history of six or more lifetime sexual partners [OR = 1.25, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01, 1.54] and four or more lifetime oral sex partners (OR = 2.25, 95% CI 1.42, 3.58). Cancer of the tonsil was associated with four or more lifetime oral sex partners (OR = 3.36, 95 % CI 1.32, 8.53), and, among men, with ever having oral sex (OR = 1.59, 95% CI 1.09, 2.33) and with an earlier age at sexual debut (OR = 2.36, 95% CI 1.37, 5.05). Cancer of the base of the tongue was associated with ever having oral sex among women (OR = 4.32, 95% CI 1.06, 17.6), having two sexual partners in comparison with only one (OR = 2.02, 95% CI 1.19, 3.46) and, among men, with a history of same-sex sexual contact (OR = 8.89, 95% CI 2.14, 36.8). Conclusions Sexual behaviours are associated with cancer risk at the head and neck cancer subsites that have previously been associated with HPV infection.

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Background: The magnitude of risk conferred by the interaction between tobacco and alcohol use on the risk of head and neck cancers is not clear because studies have used various methods to quantify the excess head and neck cancer burden. Methods: We analyzed individual-level pooled data from 17 European and American case-control studies (11,221 cases and 16,168 controls) participating in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology consortium. We estimated the multiplicative interaction parameter (psi) and population attributable risks (PAR). Results: A greater than multiplicative joint effect between ever tobacco and alcohol use was observed for head and neck cancer risk (psi = 2.15; 95% confidence interval, 1.53-3.04). The PAR for tobacco or alcohol was 72% (95% confidence interval, 61-79%) for head and neck cancer, of which 4% was due to alcohol alone, 33% was due to tobacco alone, and 35% was due to tobacco and alcohol combined. The total PAR differed by subsite (64% for oral cavity cancer, 72% for pharyngeal cancer, 89% for laryngeal cancer), by sex (74% for men, 57% for women), by age (33% for cases < 45 years, 73% for cases > 60 years), and by region (84% in Europe, 51% in North America, 83% in Latin America). Conclusions: Our results confirm that the joint effect between tobacco and alcohol use is greater than multiplicative on head and neck cancer risk. However, a substantial proportion of head and neck cancers cannot be attributed to tobacco or alcohol use, particularly for oral cavity cancer and for head and neck cancer among women and among young-onset cases. (Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2009;18(2):541-50)

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Background: Current evidence suggests an inverse association between socioeconomic status and stroke incidence. Our aim was to measure the variation in incidence among different city districts (CD) and their association with socioeconomic variables. Methods: We prospectively ascertained all possible stroke cases occurring in the city of Joinville during the period 2005-2007. We determined the incidence for each of the 38 CD, age-adjusted to the population of Joinville. By linear regression analysis, we correlated incidence data with mean years of education (MYE) and mean income per month (MIPM). Results: Of the 1,734 stroke cases registered, 1,034 were first-ever strokes. In the study period, the crude incidence in Joinville was 69.5 per 100,000 (95% confidence interval, 65.3-73.9). The stroke incidence among CD ranged from 37.5 (22.2-64.6) to 151.0 per 100,000 (69.0-286.6). The stroke incidence was inversely correlated with years of education (r = -0.532; p<0.001). MYE and MIPM were strongly related (R = 0.958), resulting in exclusion of MIPM by collinearity. Conclusions: Years of education can explain a wide incidence variation among CD. These results may be useful to guide the allocation of resources in primary prevention policies. Copyright (C) 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel

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Objective: The etiology of hypoactive sexual desire disorder (HSDD) is known to be multifactorial, involving biological, psychosexual, and context-related factors. The objective of the present study was to analyze the factors associated with female HSDD and to stratify these factors according to their importance. Methods: This was a population-based, hierarchical study conducted in Brazil, based on data from previous research on the Brazilian Sexual Life Study, conducted between November 2002 and February 2003 in various Brazilian cities. The primary study consisted of a self-administered and anonymous questionnaire, addressing sociodemographic parameters, general health, life habits, behavior, and complaints related to sexual function. The association between HSDD and various other factors was assessed. The data were evaluated by hierarchical multiple regression analysis. Results: The prevalence of HSDD in this sample was 9.5%. Associations were found with cardiovascular disease, breast cancer, posttraumatic stress, poorer education level, being older, being married, a lack of information on sexuality in childhood/adolescence, and a limited sexual repertoire. Women who consumed moderate amounts of alcohol were found to be less likely to have HSDD. Conclusions: Analysis of the associated factors classified in order of importance and analysis of the characteristics of the sexual relationships provide additional information to currently available data on the traditional concepts of HSDD.

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Background: Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are the main cause of death and disability in developed countries. In most cases, the progress of CVD is influenced by environmental factors and multifactorial inheritance. The purpose of this study was to investigate the association between APOE genotypes, cardiovascular risk factors, and a noninvasive measure of arterial stiffness in the Brazilian population. Methods: A total of 1493 urban Brazilian individuals were randomly selected from the general population of the Vitoria City Metropolitan area. Genetic analysis of the APOE polymorphism was conducted by PCR-RFLP and pulse wave velocity analyzed with a noninvasive automatic device. Results: Age, gender, body mass index, triglycerides, creatinine, uric acid, blood glucose, blood pressure phenotypes were no different between epsilon 2, epsilon 3 and epsilon 4 alleles. The epsilon 4 allele was associated with higher total-cholesterol (p < 0.001), LDL-C (p < 0.001), total-cholesterol/HDL-C ratio (p < 0.001), LDL/HDL-C ratio (p < 0.001), lower HDL-C values (p < 0.001) and higher risk to obesity (OR = 1.358, 95% CI = 1.019-1.811) and hyperuricemia (OR = 1.748, 95% CI = 1.170-2.611). Nevertheless, pulse wave velocity (p = 0.66) measures were no different between genotypes. The significant association between APOE genotypes and lipid levels persisted after a 5-year follow-up interval, but no interaction between time and genotype was observed for lipids longitudinal behavior. Conclusion: The epsilon 4 allele of the APOE gene is associated with a worse lipid profile in the Brazilian urban population. In our relatively young sample, the observed effect of APOE genotype on lipid levels was not translated into significant effects in arterial wall stiffness.

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Data are reported on the background and performance of the K6 screening scale for serious mental illness (SMI) in the World Health Organization (WHO) World Mental Health (WMH) surveys. The K6 is a six-item scale developed to provide a brief valid screen for Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders 4th edition (DSM-IV) SMI based on the criteria in the US ADAMHA Reorganization Act. Although methodological studies have documented good K6 validity in a number of countries, optimal scoring rules have never been proposed. Such rules are presented here based on analysis of K6 data in nationally or regionally representative WMH surveys in 14 countries (combined N = 41,770 respondents). Twelve-month prevalence of DSM-IV SMI was assessed with the fully-structured WHO Composite International Diagnostic Interview. Nested logistic regression analysis was used to generate estimates of the predicted probability of SMI for each respondent from K6 scores, taking into consideration the possibility of variable concordance as a function of respondent age, gender, education, and country. Concordance, assessed by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, was generally substantial (median 0.83; range 0.76-0.89; inter-quartile range 0.81-0.85). Based on this result, optimal scaling rules are presented for use by investigators working with the K6 scale in the countries studied. Copyright (c) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Background/Aims: Statistical analysis of age-at-onset involving family data is particularly complicated because there is a correlation pattern that needs to be modeled and also because there are measurements that are censored. In this paper, our main purpose was to evaluate the effect of genetic and shared family environmental factors on age-at-onset of three cardiovascular risk factors: hypertension, diabetes and high cholesterol. Methods: The mixed-effects Cox model proposed by Pankratz et al. [2005] was used to analyze the data from 81 families, involving 1,675 individuals from the village of Baependi, in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Results: The analyses performed showed that the polygenic effect plays a greater role than the shared family environmental effect in explaining the variability of the age-at-onset of hypertension, diabetes and high cholesterol. The model which simultaneously evaluated both effects indicated that there are individuals which may have risk of hypertension due to polygenic effects 130% higher than the overall average risk for the entire sample. For diabetes and high cholesterol the risks of some individuals were 115 and 45%, respectively, higher than the overall average risk for the entire population. Conclusions: Results showed evidence of significant polygenic effects indicating that age-at-onset is a useful trait for gene mapping of the common complex diseases analyzed. In addition, we found that the polygenic random component might absorb the effects of some covariates usually considered in the risk evaluation, such as gender, age and BMI. Copyright (C) 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel

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Understanding the mating patterns of populations of tree species is a key component of ex situ genetic conservation. In this study, we analysed the genetic diversity, spatial genetic structure (SGS) and mating system at the hierarchical levels of fruits and individuals as well as pollen dispersal patterns in a continuous population of Theobroma cacao in Para State, Brazil. A total of 156 individuals in a 0.56 ha plot were mapped and genotyped for nine microsatellite loci. For the mating system analyses, 50 seeds were collected from nine seed trees by sampling five fruits per tree (10 seeds per fruit). Among the 156 individuals, 127 had unique multilocus genotypes, and the remaining were clones. The population was spatially aggregated; it demonstrated a significant SGS up to 15m that could be attributed primarily to the presence of clones. However, the short seed dispersal distance also contributed to this pattern. Population matings occurred mainly via outcrossing, but selfing was observed in some seed trees, which indicated the presence of individual variation for self-incompatibility. The matings were also correlated, especially within ((r) over cap (p(m)) = 0.607) rather than among the fruits ((r) over cap (p(m)) = 0.099), which suggested that a small number of pollen donors fertilised each fruit. The paternity analysis suggested a high proportion of pollen migration (61.3%), although within the plot, most of the pollen dispersal encompassed short distances (28m). The determination of these novel parameters provides the fundamental information required to establish long-term ex situ conservation strategies for this important tropical species. Heredity (2011) 106, 973-985; doi:10.1038/hdy.2010.145; published online 8 December 2010

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Objective: Several limitations of published bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) equations have been reported. The aims were to develop in a multiethnic, elderly population a new prediction equation and cross-validate it along with some published BIA equations for estimating fat-free mass using deuterium oxide dilution as the reference method. Design and setting: Cross-sectional study of elderly from five developing countries. Methods: Total body water (TBW) measured by deuterium dilution was used to determine fat-free mass (FFM) in 383 subjects. Anthropometric and BIA variables were also measured. Only 377 subjects were included for the analysis, randomly divided into development and cross-validation groups after stratified by gender. Stepwise model selection was used to generate the model and Bland Altman analysis was used to test agreement. Results: FFM = 2.95 - 3.89 (Gender) + 0.514 (Ht(2)/Z) + 0.090 (Waist) + 0.156 (Body weight). The model fit parameters were an R(2), total F-Ratio, and the SEE of 0.88, 314.3, and 3.3, respectively. None of the published BIA equations met the criteria for agreement. The new BIA equation underestimated FFM by just 0.3 kg in the cross-validation sample. The mean of the difference between FFM by TBW and the new BIA equation were not significantly different; 95% of the differences were between the limits of agreement of -6.3 to 6.9 kg of FFM. There was no significant association between the mean of the differences and their averages (r = 0.008 and p = 0.2). Conclusions: This new BIA equation offers a valid option compared with some of the current published BIA equations to estimate FFM in elderly subjects from five developing countries.

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It has been reported that microRNAs (miRNA) may have allele-specific targeting for the 3` untranslated region (3` UTR) of the HLA-G locus. In a previous study, we reported 11 3`UTR haplotypes encompassing the 14-bp insertion/deletion polymorphism and seven SNPs (+3003 T/C, +3010 C/G, +3027 C/A, +3035 C/T, +3142 C/G, +3187A/G,and +3196 C/G), of which only the +3142 C/G SNP has been reported to influence the binding of miRNAs. Using bioinformatics analyses, we identified putative miRNA-binding sites considering the haplotypes encompassing these eight polymorphic sites, and we ranked the lowest free energies that could potentially lead to an mRNA degradation or translational repression. When a specific haplotype or a particular SNP was associated with a miRNA-binding site, we defined a free energy difference of 4 kcal/mol between alleles to classify them energetically distant. The best results were obtained for the miR-513a-5p, miR-518c*, miR-1262 and miR-92a-1*, miR-92a-2*, miR-661, miR-1224-5p, and miR-433 miRNAs, all influencing one or more of the +3003, +3010, +3027, and +3035 SNPs. The miR-2110, miR-93, miR-508-5p, miR-331-5p, miR-616, miR-513b, and miR-589* miRNAs targeted the 14-bp fragment region, and miR-148a, miR-19a*, miR-152, mir-148b,and miR-218-2 also influenced the +3142C/G polymorphism. These results suggest that these miRNAs might play a relevant role on the HLA-G expression pattern. (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier Inc. on behalf of American Society for Histocompatibility and Immunogenetics.

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The prevention and treatment of diseases related to changes in body composition require accurate methods for the measurement of body composition. However, few studies have dealt specifically with the assessment of body composition of undernourished older subjects by different methodologies. To assess the body composition of undernourished older subjects by two different methods, dual energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) and bioelectric impedance (BIA), and to compare results with those of an eutrophic group. The study model was cross-sectional; the study was performed at the University Hospital of the School of Medicine of Ribeiro Preto, University of So Paulo, Brazil. Forty-one male volunteers aged 62 to 91 years. The groups were selected on the basis of anamnesis, physical examination and nutritional assessment according to the Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA) score. Body composition was assessed by DXA and BIA. Body weight, arm and calf circumference, body mass index (BMI), fat free mass (FFM) and fat mass (FM) were significantly lower in the undernourished group as compared to the eutrophic group. There were no significant differences between FFM and FM mean values determined by DXA and BIA in both groups, but the agreement between methods in the undernourished group was less strong. Our results suggest caution when BIA is to be applied in studies including undernourished older subjects. This study does not support BIA as an accurate method for the individual assessment of body composition.