Non-stationary frequency analysis of extreme daily rainfall in Sao Paulo, Brazil

This work is an assessment of frequency of extreme values (EVs) of daily rainfall in the city of Sao Paulo. Brazil, over the period 1933-2005, based on the peaks-over-threshold (POT) and Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) approach. Usually. a GPD model is fitted to a sample of POT Values Selected With a constant threshold. However. in this work we use time-dependent thresholds, composed of relatively large p quantities (for example p of 0.97) of daily rainfall amounts computed from all available data. Samples of POT values were extracted with several Values of p. Four different GPD models (GPD-1, GPD-2, GPD-3. and GDP-4) were fitted to each one of these samples by the maximum likelihood (ML) method. The shape parameter was assumed constant for the four models, but time-varying covariates were incorporated into scale parameter of GPD-2. GPD-3, and GPD-4, describing annual cycle in GPD-2. linear trend in GPD-3, and both annual cycle and linear trend in GPD-4. The GPD-1 with constant scale and shape parameters is the simplest model. For identification of the best model among the four models WC used rescaled Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) with second-order bias correction. This criterion isolates GPD-3 as the best model, i.e. the one with positive linear trend in the scale parameter. The slope of this trend is significant compared to the null hypothesis of no trend, for about 98% confidence level. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test also showed presence of positive trend in the annual frequency of excess over high thresholds. with p-value being virtually zero. Therefore. there is strong evidence that high quantiles of daily rainfall in the city of Sao Paulo have been increasing in magnitude and frequency over time. For example. 0.99 quantiles of daily rainfall amount have increased by about 40 mm between 1933 and 2005. Copyright (C) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

Cloud condensation nuclei from biomass burning during the Amazonian dry-to-wet transition season

Aircraft measurements of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) during the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) were conducted over the Southwestern Amazon region in September-October 2002, to emphasize the dry-to-wet transition season. The CCN concentrations were measured for values within the range 0.1-1.0% of supersaturation. The CCN concentration inside the boundary layer revealed a general decreasing trend during the transition from the end of the dry season to the onset of the wet season. Clean and polluted areas showed large differences. The differences were not so strong at high levels in the troposphere and there was evidence supporting the semi-direct aerosol effect in suppressing convection through the evaporation of clouds by aerosol absorption. The measurements also showed a diurnal cycle following biomass burning activity. Although biomass burning was the most important source of CCN, it was seen as a source of relatively efficient CCN, since the increase was significant only at high supersaturations.

Impact of biomass burning aerosols on precipitation in the Amazon: A modeling case study

A study of the potential role of aerosols in modifying clouds and precipitation is presented using a numerical atmospheric model. Measurements of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and cloud size distribution properties taken in the southwestern Amazon region during the transition from dry to wet seasons were used as guidelines to define the microphysical parameters for the simulations. Numerical simulations were carried out using the Brazilian Development on Regional Atmospheric Modeling System, and the results presented considerable sensitivity to changes in these parameters. High CCN concentrations, typical of polluted days, were found to result in increases or decreases in total precipitation, depending on the level of pollution used as a reference, showing a complexity that parallels the aerosol-precipitation interaction. Our results show that on the grids evaluated, higher CCN concentrations reduced low-to-moderate rainfall rates and increased high rainfall rates. The principal consequence of the increased pollution was a change from a warm to a cold rain process, which affected the maximum and overall mean accumulated precipitation. Under polluted conditions, cloud cover diminished, allowing greater amounts of solar radiation to reach the surface. Aerosol absorption of radiation in the lower layers of the atmosphere delayed convective evolution but produced higher maximum rainfall rates due to increased instability. In addition, the intensity of the surface sensible heat flux, as well as that of the latent heat flux, was reduced by the lower temperature difference between surface and air, producing greater energy stores at the surface.

The impact of smoke from forest fires on the spectral dispersion of cloud droplet size distributions in the Amazonian region

In this paper, the main microphysical characteristics of clouds developing in polluted and clean conditions in the biomass-burning season of the Amazon region are examined, with special attention to the spectral dispersion of the cloud droplet size distribution and its potential impact on climate modeling applications. The dispersion effect has been shown to alter the climate cooling predicted by the so-called Twomey effect. In biomass-burning polluted conditions, high concentrations of low dispersed cloud droplets are found. Clean conditions revealed an opposite situation. The liquid water content (0.43 +/- 0.19 g m(-3)) is shown to be uncorrelated with the cloud drop number concentration, while the effective radius is found to be very much correlated with the relative dispersion of the size distribution (R(2) = 0.81). The results suggest that an increase in cloud condensation nuclei concentration from biomass-burning aerosols may lead to an additional effect caused by a decrease in relative dispersion. Since the dry season in the Amazonian region is vapor limiting, the dispersion effect of cloud droplet size distributions could be substantially larger than in other polluted regions.

Precipitation variability in Sao Paulo State, Brazil

The State of Sao Paulo is the richest in Brazil, responsible for over 30% of the Brazilian gross rate. It has a population of around 30 million and its economy is based on agriculture and industrial products. Any change in climate can have a profound influence on the socio-economics of the State. In order to determine changes in total and extreme rainfall over Sao Paulo State, climate change indices derived from daily precipitation data were calculated using specially designed software. Maps of trends for a subset of 59 rain gauge stations were analysed for the period 1950-1999 and also for a subset of this period, 1990-1999, representing more recent climate. A non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was applied to the time series. Maps of trends for six annual precipitation indices (annual total precipitation (PRCPTOT), very heavy precipitation days (R20mm), events greater than the 95th percentile (R95p), maximum five days precipitation total (RX5day), the length of the largest wet spell (CWD) and the length of the largest dry spell (CDD)) were analysed for the entire period. These exhibited statistically significant trends associated with a wetter climate. A significant increase in PRCPTOT, associated with very heavy precipitation days, were observed at more than 45% of the rain gauge stations. The Mann-Kendall test identified that the positive trend in PRCPTOT is possibly related to the increase in the R95p and R20mm indices. Therefore, the results suggest that there has been a change in precipitation intensity. In contrast, the indices for the more recent shorter time series are significantly different to the longer term indices. The results indicate that intense precipitation is becoming concentrated in a few days and spread over the period when the CDD and R20mm indices show positive trends, while negative ones are seen in the RX5day index. The trends found could be related to many anthropogenic aspects such as biomass burning aerosols and land use.

Drizzle and Fog Analysis in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area: Changes 1933-2005 and Correlations with other Climate Factors

In order to improve our understanding of climate change, the aim of this research project was to study the climatology and the time trends of drizzle and fog events in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area, and the possible connections of this variability with the sea surface temperature (SST) of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. The climatology of both phenomena presents differences and similarities. Fog shows a marked maximum frequency in winter and a minimum frequency in summer, while the seasonal differences of drizzle occurrence are less pronounced, there is a maximum in spring, whereas the other seasons present smaller and similar numbers of events. Both phenomena present a negative trend from 1933 to 2005 which is stronger for fog events. A multivariate statistical analysis indicates that the South Atlantic SST could increase warm temperature advection to the continent. This could be one of the responsible factors for the negative tendency in the number of both fog and drizzle events.

Anthropogenic heat in the city of So Paulo, Brazil

The main goal of this work is to describe the anthropogenic energy flux (Q (F)) in the city of So Paulo, Brazil. The hourly, monthly, and annual values of the anthropogenic energy flux are estimated using the inventory method, and the contributions of vehicular, stationary, and human metabolism sources from 2004 to 2007 are considered. The vehicular and stationary sources are evaluated using the primary consumption of energy based on fossil fuel, bio fuel, and electricity usage by the population. The diurnal evolution of the anthropogenic energy flux shows three relative maxima, with the largest maxima occurring early in the morning (similar to 19.9 Wm(-2)) and in the late afternoon (similar to 20.3 Wm(-2)). The relative maximum that occurs around noontime (similar to 19.6 Wm(-2)) reflects the diurnal pattern of vehicle traffic that seems to be specific to So Paulo. With respect to diurnal evolution, the energy flux released by vehicular sources (Q (FV)) contributes approximately 50% of the total anthropogenic energy flux. Stationary sources (Q (FS)) and human metabolism (Q (FM)) represent about 41% and 9% of the anthropogenic energy flux, respectively. For 2007, the monthly values of Q (FV), Q (FS), Q (FM), and Q (F) are, respectively, 16.8 +/- 0.25, 14.3 +/- 0.16, 3.5 +/- 0.03, and 34.6 +/- 0.41 MJ m(-2) month(-1). The seasonal evolution monthly values of Q (FV), Q (FS), Q (FM), and Q (F) show a relative minimum during the summer and winter vacations and a systematic and progressive increase associated with the seasonal evolution of the economic activity in So Paulo. The annual evolution of Q (F) indicates that the city of So Paulo released 355.2 MJ m(-2) year(-1) in 2004 and 415.5 MJ m(-2) year(-1) in 2007 in association with an annual rate of increase of 19.6 MJ m(-2) year(-1) (from 2004 to 2006) and 30.5 MJ m(-2) year(-1) (from 2006 to 2007). The anthropogenic energy flux corresponds to about 9% of the net radiation at the surface in the summer and 15% in the winter. The amplitude of seasonal variation of the maximum hourly value of the diurnal variation increases exponentially with latitude.

Contribution to the ground-based follow-up of the Gaia space mission

The Gaia Space Mission [Mignard, F., 2005. The three-dimensional universe with Gaia. ESA/SP-576; Perryman, M., 2005. The three-dimensional universe with Gaia. ESA/SP-576] will observe several transient events as supernovae, microlensing, gamma ray bursts and new Solar System objects. The satellite, due to its scanning law, will detect these events but will not be able to monitor them. So, to take these events into consideration and to perform further studies it is necessary to follow them with Earth-based observations. These observations could be efficiently done by a ground-based network of well-equipped telescopes scattered in both hemispheres. Here we focus our attention at the new Solar System objects to be discovered and observed by the Gaia satellite [Mignard, F., 2002. Observations of Solar System objects by Gaia I. Detection of NEOS. Astron. Astrophys. 393, 727] mainly asteroids, NEOs and comets. A dedicated ground-based network of telescopes as proposed by Thuillot [2005. The three-dimensional universe with Gaia. ESA/SP-576] will allow to monitor those events, to avoid losing them and to perform a quick characterization of some physical properties which will be important for the identification of these objects in further measurements by Gaia. We present in this paper, the beginning of the organization of a Latin-American ground-based network of telescopes and observers joining several institutions in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil and other Latin-American countries aiming to contribute to the follow-up of Gaia science alerts for Solar System objects. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nuclear and extended spectra of NGC 1068-I. Hints from near-infrared spectroscopy

We report the first simultaneous zJHK spectroscopy on the archetypical Seyfert 2 galaxy NGC 1068 covering the wavelength region 0.9-2.4 mu m. The slit, aligned in the north-south direction and centred in the optical nucleus, maps a region 300 pc in radius at subarcsec resolution, with a spectral resolving power of 360 km s-1. This configuration allows us to study the physical properties of the nuclear gas including that of the north side of the ionization cone, map the strong excess of continuum emission in the K band and attributed to dust and study the variations, both in flux and profile, in the emission lines. Our results show the following. (1) Mid- to low-ionization emission lines are split into two components, whose relative strengths vary with the position along the slit and seem to be correlated with the jet. (2) The coronal lines are single-peaked and are detected only in the central few hundred of pc from the nucleus. (3) The absorption lines indicate the presence of intermediate age stellar population, which might be a significant contributor to the continuum in the near-IR spectra. (4) Through some simple photoionization models we find photoionization as the main mechanism powering the emitting gas. (5) Calculations using stellar features point to a mass concentration inside the 100-200 pc of about 1010 M(circle dot).

Nuclear and extended spectra of NGC 1068-II. Near-infrared stellar population synthesis

We performed stellar population synthesis on the nuclear and extended regions of NGC 1068 by means of near-infrared spectroscopy to disentangle their spectral energy distribution components. This is the first time that such a technique is applied to the whole 0.8-2.4 mu m wavelength interval in this galaxy. NGC 1068 is one of the nearest and probably the most studied Seyfert 2 galaxy, becoming an excellent laboratory to study the interaction between black holes, the jets that they can produce and the medium in which they propagate. Our main result is that traces of young stellar population are found at similar to 100 pc south of the nucleus. The contribution of a power-law continuum in the centre is about 25 per cent, which is expected if the light is scattered from a Seyfert 1 nucleus. We find peaks in the contribution of the featureless continuum about 100-150 pc from the nucleus on both sides. They might be associated with regions where the jet encounters dense clouds. Further support to this scenario is given by the peaks of hot dust distribution found around these same regions and the H(2) emission-line profile, leading us to propose that the peaks might be associated to regions where stars are being formed. Hot dust also has an important contribution to the nuclear region, reinforcing the idea of the presence of a dense, circumnuclear torus in this galaxy. Cold dust appears mostly in the south direction, which supports the view that the south-west emission is behind the plane of the galaxy and is extinguished very likely by dust in the plane. Intermediate-age stellar population contributes significantly to the continuum, especially in the inner 200 pc.

Geophysical investigation using resistivity and GPR methods: a case study of a lubricant oil waste disposal area in the city of Ribeiro Preto, So Paulo, Brazil

Geophysics has been shown to be effective in identifying areas contaminated by waste disposal, contributing to the greater efficiency of soundings programs and the installation of monitoring wells. In the study area, four trenches were constructed with a total volume of about 25,000 m(3). They were almost totally filled with re-refined lubricating oil waste for approximately 25 years. No protection liners were used in the bottoms and laterals of the disposal trenches. The purpose of this work is to evaluate the potential of the resistivity and ground penetrating radar (GPR) methods in characterizing the contamination of this lubricant oil waste disposal area in Ribeiro Preto, SP, situated on the geological domain of the basalt spills of the Serra Geral Formation and the sandstones of the Botucatu Formation. Geophysical results were shown in 2D profiles. The geophysical methods used enabled the identification of geophysical anomalies, which characterized the contamination produced by the trenches filled with lubricant oil waste. Conductive anomalies (smaller than 185 Omega m) immediately below the trenches suggest the action of bacteria in the hydrocarbons, as has been observed in several sites contaminated by hydrocarbons in previously reported cases in the literature. It was also possible to define the geometry of the trenches, as evidenced by the GPR method. Direct sampling (chemical analysis of the soil and the water in the monitoring well) confirmed the contamination. In the soil analysis, low concentrations of several polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were found, mainly naphthalene and phenanthrene. In the water samples, an analysis verified contamination of the groundwater by lead (Pb). The geophysical methods used in the investigation provided an excellent tool for environmental characterization in this study of a lubricant oil waste disposal area, and could be applied in the study of similar areas.

Coda wave attenuation in the Parecis Basin, Amazon Craton, Brazil: sensitivity to basement depth

Small local earthquakes from two aftershock sequences in Porto dos GaA(0)chos, Amazon craton-Brazil, were used to estimate the coda wave attenuation in the frequency band of 1 to 24 Hz. The time-domain coda-decay method of a single backscattering model is employed to estimate frequency dependence of the quality factor (Q (c)) of coda waves modeled usingwhere Q (0) is the coda quality factor at frequency of 1 Hz and eta is the frequency parameter. We also used the independent frequency model approach (Morozov, Geophys J Int, 175:239-252, 2008), based in the temporal attenuation coefficient, chi(f) instead of Q(f), given by the equation for the calculation of the geometrical attenuation (gamma) and effective attenuation Q (c) values have been computed at central frequencies (and band) of 1.5 (1-2), 3.0 (2-4), 6.0 (4-8), 9.0 (6-12), 12 (8-16), and 18 (12-24) Hz for five different datasets selected according to the geotectonic environment as well as the ability to sample shallow or deeper structures, particularly the sediments of the Parecis basin and the crystalline basement of the Amazon craton. For the Parecis basin for the surrounding shield and for the whole region of Porto dos GaA(0)chos Using the independent frequency model, we found: for the cratonic zone, gamma = 0.014 s (-aEuro parts per thousand 1), nu a parts per thousand 1.12; for the basin zone with sediments of similar to 500 m, gamma = 0.031 s (-aEuro parts per thousand 1), nu a parts per thousand 1.27; and for the Parecis basin with sediments of similar to 1,000 m, gamma = 0.047 s (-aEuro parts per thousand 1), nu a parts per thousand 1.42. Analysis of the attenuation factor (Q (c)) for different values of the geometrical spreading parameter (nu) indicated that an increase of nu generally causes an increase in Q (c), both in the basin as well as in the craton. But the differences in the attenuation between different geological environments are maintained for different models of geometrical spreading. It was shown that the energy of coda waves is attenuated more strongly in the sediments, (in the deepest part of the basin), than in the basement, (in the craton). Thus, the coda wave analysis can contribute to studies of geological structures in the upper crust, as the average coda quality factor is dependent on the thickness of sedimentary layer.

On the development of summer thunderstorms in the city of Sao Paulo: Mean meteorological characteristics and pollution effect

This study investigates how the summer thunderstorms developed over the city of Sao Paulo and if the pollution might affect its development or characteristics during the austral summer (December-January-February-March, DJFM months). A total of 605 days from December 1999 to March 2004 was separated as 241 thunderstorms days (TDs) and 364 non-thunderstorm days (NTDs). The analyses are performed by using hourly measurements of air temperature (T), web-bulb temperature (Tw), surface atmospheric pressure (P), wind velocity and direction, rainfall and thunder and lightning observations collected at the Meteorological Station of the University of Sao Paulo in conjunction with aerosol measurements obtained by AERONET (Aerosol Robotic Network), and the NCEP-DOE (National Centers for Environmental Prediction Department of Energy) reanalysis and radiosondes. The wind diurnal cycle shows that for TDs the morning flow is from the northwest rotating to the southeast after 16: 00 local time (LT) and it remains from the east until the night. For the NTDs, the wind is well characterized by the sea-breeze circulation that in the morning has the wind blowing from the northeast and in the afternoon from the southeast. The TDs show that the air temperature diurnal cycle presents higher amplitude and the maximum temperature of the day is 3.2 degrees C higher than in NTDs. Another important factor found is the difference between moisture that is higher during TDs. In terms of precipitation, the TDs represent 40% of total of days analyzed and those days are responsible for more than 60% of the total rain accumulation during the summer, for instance 50% of the TDs had more than 15.5mm day(-1) while the NTDs had 4 mm day(-1). Moreover, the rainfall distribution shows that TDs have higher rainfall rate intensities and an afternoon precipitation maximum; while in the NTDs there isn`t a defined precipitation diurnal cycle. The wind and temperature fields from NCEP reanalysis concur with the local weather station and radiosonde observations. The NCEP composites show that TDs are controlled by synoptic circulation characterized by a pre-frontal situation, with a baroclinic zone situated at southern part of Sao Paulo. In terms of pollution, this study employed the AERONET data to obtain the main aerosol characteristics in the atmospheric column for both TDs and NTDs. The particle size distribution and particle volume size distribution have similar concentrations for both TDs and NTDs and present a similar fine and coarse mode mean radius. In respect to the atmospheric loading, the aerosol optical depth (AOD) at different frequencies presented closed mean values for both TDs and NTDs that were statistically significant at 95% level. The spectral dependency of those values in conjunction with the Angstrom parameter reveal the higher concentration of the fine mode particles that are more likely to be hygroscopic and from urban areas. In summary, no significant aerosol effect could be found on the development of summer thunderstorms, suggesting the strong synoptic control by the baroclinic forcing for deep convective development. (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier B. V.

Floristic inventory of cerrado at Pedregulho, Sao Paulo State, Brazil

Pedregulho municipality in the far northeastern region of Sao Paulo state has fragments of cerrado vegetation thought to be floristically distinct from other cerrado remmants in the state. In this study, a floristic survey was carried out at Pedregulho, focusing on two geologically distinct regions: Furnas do Bom Jesus State Park and the Estreito district. In each region, 50x50 m plots were set up for a total sample area of 1 hectare, where 65 families and 379 angiosperm species were recorded. Collecting efforts in adjacent areas resulted in a total of 71 families and 443 species. The two study areas had low floristic similarity. Geographic species distribution was analyzed and eight patterns were defined for those species restricted to the Pedregulho region in Sao Paulo.

Effects of kinetin and nitrogen on growth rates, pigment and protein contents in wild and phycoerythrin-deficient strains of Hypnea musciformis (Rhodophyta)

Hypnea musciformis (Wulfen in Jacqu.) J.V. Lamour. is the main source for carrageenan production in Brazil and strains with selected characteristics could improve the production of raw material. The effects of kinetin on growth rates, morphology, protein content, and concentrations of pigments (chlorophyll a, phycoerythrin, phycocyanin, and allophycocyanin) were assessed in the wild strain (brown phenotype) and in the phycoerythrin-deficient strain (green phenotype) of H. musciformis. Concentrations of kinetin ranging from 0 to 50 mu M were tested in ASP 12-NTA synthetic medium with 10 mu M nitrate (N-limited) and 100 mu M nitrate (N-saturated). In N-limited condition, kinetin stimulated growth rates of the phycoerythrin-deficient strain and formation of lateral branches in both colour strains. Kinetin stimulated protein biosynthesis in both strains. However, differences between both nitrogen conditions were significant only in the phycoerythrin-deficient strain. In the wild strain, effects of kinetin on concentrations of phycobiliproteins were not significant in both nitrogen conditions, except for chlorophyll content. However, the phycoerythrin-deficient strain showed an opposite response, and kinetin stimulated the phycobiliprotein biosynthesis, with the highest concentrations of phycoerythrin in N-saturated medium, while the highest concentrations of allophycocyanin and phycocyanin were observed in N-limited medium. These results indicate that the effects of kinetin on growth, morphology, protein and phycobiliprotein contents are influenced by nitrogen availability, and the main nitrogen storage pools in phycoerythrin-deficient strain of H. musciformis submitted to N-limited conditions were phycocyanin and allophycocianin, the biosynthesis of which was enhanced by kinetin.