Bayesian ratemaking procedure of crop insurance contracts with skewed distribution

Over the years, crop insurance programs became the focus of agricultural policy in the USA, Spain, Mexico, and more recently in Brazil. Given the increasing interest in insurance, accurate calculation of the premium rate is of great importance. We address the crop-yield distribution issue and its implications in pricing an insurance contract considering the dynamic structure of the data and incorporating the spatial correlation in the Hierarchical Bayesian framework. Results show that empirical (insurers) rates are higher in low risk areas and lower in high risk areas. Such methodological improvement is primarily important in situations of limited data.

Spatio-temporal modeling of agricultural yield data with an application to pricing crop insurance contracts

This article presents a statistical model of agricultural yield data based on a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that allows joint modeling of temporal and spatial autocorrelation. This method captures a comprehensive range of the various uncertainties involved in predicting crop insurance premium rates as opposed to the more traditional ad hoc, two-stage methods that are typically based on independent estimation and prediction. A panel data set of county-average yield data was analyzed for 290 counties in the State of Parana (Brazil) for the period of 1990 through 2002. Posterior predictive criteria are used to evaluate different model specifications. This article provides substantial improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to situations where data are limited.

Parametric and nonparametric statistical modelling of crop yield: implications for pricing crop insurance contracts

This article considers alternative methods to calculate the fair premium rate of crop insurance contracts based on county yields. The premium rate was calculated using parametric and nonparametric approaches to estimate the conditional agricultural yield density. These methods were applied to a data set of county yield provided by the Statistical and Geography Brazilian Institute (IBGE), for the period of 1990 through 2002, for soybean, corn and wheat, in the State of Paran. In this article, we propose methodological alternatives to pricing crop insurance contracts resulting in more accurate premium rates in a situation of limited data.

Yield loss caused by huanglongbing in different sweet orange cultivars in So Paulo, Brazil

Citrus huanglongbing (HLB) reduces an affected orchard`s economic life. This work aimed to characterize yield loss due to HLB for different sweet orange cultivars and determine the relationship between disease severity and yield. Disease severity and yield were assessed on 949 individual trees distributed in 11 different blocks from sweet orange cultivars Hamlin, Westin, Pera and Valencia. In each block, plants showing a range of HLB severity levels and asymptomatic plants were selected. Total yield (weight of harvested fruit), mean weight of asymptomatic and symptomatic fruit, relative yield (symptomatic tree yield/mean yield of asymptomatic trees from the same block) and relative number of fruits (fruit number from symptomatic tree/mean number of fruits from asymptomatic trees from the same block) were determined. The weight of symptomatic fruit was lower than the weight of asymptomatic fruit, but the weights of asymptomatic and symptomatic fruit were not correlated with disease severity, indicating that the effects of HLB were restricted to symptomatic branches. The relationship of the relative yield with HLB severity can be satisfactorily described by a negative exponential model. The rates of yield decrease as a function of disease severity were similar for all assessed cultivars. A relative yield (up to 19%) was observed even for trees where disease severity was 100%. The strong linear relationship between relative number of fruits per tree and the relative yield per tree suggested that the yield reduction was due primarily to early fruit drop or lack of fruit set on affected branches.

Identification of microsatellites markers associated with yield components and quality parameters in sugarcane

Marker assisted selection depends on the identification of tightly linked association between marker and the trait of interest. In the present work, functional (EST-SSRs) and genomic (gSSRs) microsatellite markers were used to detect putative QTLs for sugarcane yield components (stalk number, diameter and height) and as well as for quality parameters (Brix, Pol and fibre) in plant cane. The mapping population (200 individuals) was derived from a bi-parental cross (IACSP95-3018 x IACSP93-3046) from the IAC Sugarcane Breeding Program. As the map is under construction, single marker trait association analysis based on the likelihood ratio test was undertaken to detect the QTLs. Of the 215 single dose markers evaluated (1:1 and 3:1), 90 (42%) were associated with putative QTLs involving 43 microsatellite primers (18 gSSRs and 25 EST-SSRs). For the yield components, 41 marker/trait associations were found: 20 for height, 6 for diameter and 15 for stalk number. An EST-SSRs marker with homology to non-phototropic hypocotyls 4 (NPH4) protein was associated with a putative QTL with positive effect for diameter as also with a negative effect for stalk number. In relation to the quality parameters, 18 marker trait associations were found for Brix, 19 for Pol, and 12 for fibre. For fibre, 58% of the QTLs detected showed a negative effect on this trait. Some makers associated with QTLs with a negative effect for fibre showed a positive effect for Pol, reflecting the negative correlation generally observed between these traits.

Analysis of genomic and functional RFLP derived markers associated with sucrose content, fiber and yield QTLs in a sugarcane (Saccharum spp.) commercial cross

Expressed sequence tags derived markers have a great potential to be used in functional map construction and QTL tagging. In the present work, sugarcane genomic probes and expressed sequence tags having homology to genes, mostly involved in carbohydrate metabolism were used in RFLP assays to identify putative QTLs as well as their epistatic interactions for fiber content, cane yield, pol and tones of sugar per hectare, at two crop cycles in a progeny derived from a bi-parental cross of sugarcane elite materials. A hundred and twenty marker trait associations were found, of which 26 at both crop cycle and 32 only at first ratoon cane. A sucrose synthase derived marker was associated with a putative QTL having a high negative effect on cane yield and also with a QTL having a positive effect on Pol at both crop cycles. Fifty digenic epistatic marker interactions were identified for the four traits evaluated. Of these, only two were observed at both crop cycles.

Development of Ramulosis Disease of Cotton Under Controlled Environment and Field Conditions

Colletotrichum gossypii var. cephalosporioides, the fungus that causes ramulosis disease of cotton, is widespread in Brazil and can cause severe yield loss. Because weather conditions greatly affect disease development, the objective of this work was to develop weather-based models to assess disease favorability. Latent period, incidence, and severity of ramulosis symptoms were evaluated in controlled environment experiments using factorial combinations of temperature (15, 20, 25, 30, and 35 degrees C) and leaf wetness duration (0, 4, 8, 16, 32, and 64 h after inoculation). Severity was modeled as an exponential function of leaf wetness duration and temperature. At the optimum temperature of disease development, 27 degrees C, average latent period was 10 days. Maximum ramulosis severity occurred from 20 to 30 degrees C, with sharp decreases at lower and higher temperatures. Ramulosis severity increased as wetness periods were increased from 4 to 32 h. In field experiments at Piracicaba, Sao Paulo State, Brazil, cotton plots were inoculated (10(5) conidia ml(-1)) and ramulosis severity was evaluated weekly. The model obtained from the controlled environment study was used to generate a disease favorability index for comparison with disease progress rate in the field. Hourly measurements of solar radiation, temperature, relative humidity, leaf wetness duration, rainfall, and wind speed were also evaluated as possible explanatory variables. Both the disease favorability model and a model based on rainfall explained ramulosis growth rate well, with R(2) of 0.89 and 0.91, respectively. They are proposed as models of ramulosis development rate on cotton in Brazil, and weather-disease relationships revealed by this work can form the basis of a warning system for ramulosis development.

Horticultural performance of `Folha Murcha` sweet orange onto twelve rootstocks

Despite its outstanding position, the Brazilian citriculture is established on a very limited pool of varieties that limits its expansion and restricts the fruit availability throughout the year. This situation determines the urgent necessity of developing alternative scion and rootstock cultivars, with good performance under local conditions. `Folha Murcha` sweet orange (Citrus sinensis (L.) Osbeck) is a late-harvest cultivar, suitable both for the juice processing industry and the fresh fruit market, being described as tolerant to citrus canker (Xanthomonas citri subsp. citri Schaad et al.), and less affected by citrus variegated chlorosis (Xylella fastidiosa Wells et al.). A study was conducted in Bebedouro, Sao Paulo State, Brazil, to evaluate the horticultural performance of `Folha Murcha` sweet orange budded onto 12 rootstocks: the citrandarin `Changsha` mandarin (Citrus reticulata Blanco) x Poncirus trifoliata `English Small`: the hybrid `Rangpur` lime (Citrus limonia Osbeck) x `Swingle` citrumelo (P. trifoliata (L.) Raf x Citrus paradisi Macfad.); the trifoliates (P. trifoliata (L.) Raf.)`Rubidoux`, `FCAV`, and `Flying Dragon` (P. trifoliata var. monstrosa); the `Sun Chu Sha Kat` mandarin (C. reticulata Blanco); the `Sunki` mandarin (Citrus sunki (Hayata) Hart. ex. Tanaka); the `Rangpur` limes (C. limonia Osbeck) `Cravo Limeira` and `Cravo FCAV`; `Carrizo` citrange (C. sinensis x P. trifoliata), `Swingle` citrumelo (P. trifoliata x C. paradisi), and `Orlando` tangelo (C. paradisi x Citrus tangerina cv. `Dancy`). The experimental grove was planted in 2001, using a 7 m x 4 m spacing, in a randomized block design, with five replications and two plants per plot. No supplementary irrigation was applied. Fruit yield, canopy volume, tree tolerance to drought and to citrus variegated chlorosis, and fruit quality were assessed for each rootstock. Trees grafted onto the `Flying Dragon` trifoliate were smaller in size, but had largest yield efficiency when compared to those grafted onto other rootstocks. Lower alternate bearing index was observed on trees budded onto `Cravo FCAV` `Rangpur` lime. Both `Rangpur` lime rootstocks and the `Sunki` mandarin induced higher tree tolerance to drought. The `Flying Dragon` trifoliate induced better fruit quality and higher tolerance to citrus variegated chlorosis (CVC) to `Folha Murcha` trees. A cluster multivariate analysis identified three groups of rootstocks with similar effects on `Folha Murcha` tree performance. Among the 12 evaluated rootstocks, the `Flying Dragon` trifoliate has a unique effect on plant growth, tolerance to drought and CVC, fruit yield and fruit quality of `Folha Murcha` trees, and may be better suited for high-density plantings. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling of transpiration reduction in van Genuchten-Mualem type soils

We derive an analytic expression for the matric flux potential (M) for van Genuchten-Mualem (VGM) type soils which can also be written in terms of a converging infinite series. Considering the first four terms of this series, the accuracy of the approximation was verified by comparing it to values of M estimated by numerical finite difference integration. Using values of the parameters for three soils from different texture classes, the proposed four-term approximation showed an almost perfect match with the numerical solution, except for effective saturations higher than 0.9. Including more terms reduced the discrepancy but also increased the complexity of the equation. The four-term equation can be used for most applications. Cases with special interest in nearly saturated soils should include more terms from the infinite series. A transpiration reduction function for use with the VGM equations is derived by combining the derived expression for M with a root water extraction model. The shape of the resulting reduction function and its dependency on the derivative of the soil hydraulic diffusivity D with respect to the soil water content theta is discussed. Positive and negative values of dD/d theta yield concave and convex or S-shaped reduction functions, respectively. On the basis of three data sets, the hydraulic properties of virtually all soils yield concave reduction curves. Such curves based solely on soil hydraulic properties do not account for the complex interactions between shoot growth, root growth, and water availability.

The potential for increasing rubber production by matching tapping intensity to leaf area index

Understanding resource capture can help design appropriate species combinations, planting designs and management. Leaf area index (LAI) and its longevity are the most important factors defining dry matter production and thus growth and productivity. The ecophysiological modifications and yield of rubber (Hevea spp.) in an agroforestry system (AFS) with beans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) were studied. The experiment was established in Southeast-Brazil, with three rubber cultivars: IAN 3087, RRIM 600 and RRIM 527. The AFS comprised double rows of rubber trees along with beans sown in autumn and winter seasons in 1999. There was about 50% higher rubber yield per tree in the AFS than the rubber monoculture. Trees within the AFS responded to higher solar radiation availability with higher LAI and total foliage area, allowing its greater interception. All three cultivars had higher LAI in the AFS than monoculture, reaching maximum values in the AFS between April and May of 3.17 for RRIM 527; 2.83 for RRIM 600 and 2.28 for IAN 3087. The maximum LAI values for monocrop rubber trees were: 2.65, 2.62 and 1.99, respectively, for each cultivar. Rubber production and LAI were positively correlated in both the AFS and monoculture but leaf fall of rubber trees in the AFS was delayed and total phytomass was larger. It is suggested that trees in the AFS were under exploited and could yield more without compromising their life cycle if the tapping system was intensified. This shows how knowledge of LAI can be used to manage tapping intensity in the field, leading to higher rubber yield.

Absorption and Mobility of Boron in Young Citrus Plants

Boron (B) deficiency is widespread in Brazilian citrus orchards and has been considered an important soil constraint to citrus yield. The aim of this work was to study B uptake and its mobility in young citrus trees, under different B statuses, in two rootstocks. The experiment was carried out in a greenhouse, with `Valencia` sweet orange trees budded on Rangpur lime or Swingle citrumelo. The plants were grown in pots containing nutrient solutions under either adequate or deficient B supply. Plants with different B levels were transplanted into solution with adequate level of B, enriched in 10 B in different stages of development ( vegetative growth and fruiting). About 20 to 35% of B content in the new parts of orange tree came from plant reserves. Boron mobility within the plant was influenced by its nutritional status; that is, the longer the period was that the plants were grown under deficient supply, the smaller was the mobility. Boron concentration in the sweet orange trees on Swingle was higher than that on Rangpur, suggesting higher demand of swingle Citrumelo for B.

Parametric correlation functions to model the structure of permanent environmental (co)variances in milk yield random regression models

The objective of the present study was to estimate milk yield genetic parameters applying random regression models and parametric correlation functions combined with a variance function to model animal permanent environmental effects. A total of 152,145 test-day milk yields from 7,317 first lactations of Holstein cows belonging to herds located in the southeastern region of Brazil were analyzed. Test-day milk yields were divided into 44 weekly classes of days in milk. Contemporary groups were defined by herd-test-day comprising a total of 2,539 classes. The model included direct additive genetic, permanent environmental, and residual random effects. The following fixed effects were considered: contemporary group, age of cow at calving (linear and quadratic regressions), and the population average lactation curve modeled by fourth-order orthogonal Legendre polynomial. Additive genetic effects were modeled by random regression on orthogonal Legendre polynomials of days in milk, whereas permanent environmental effects were estimated using a stationary or nonstationary parametric correlation function combined with a variance function of different orders. The structure of residual variances was modeled using a step function containing 6 variance classes. The genetic parameter estimates obtained with the model using a stationary correlation function associated with a variance function to model permanent environmental effects were similar to those obtained with models employing orthogonal Legendre polynomials for the same effect. A model using a sixth-order polynomial for additive effects and a stationary parametric correlation function associated with a seventh-order variance function to model permanent environmental effects would be sufficient for data fitting.

Random regression models to estimate test-day milk yield genetic parameters Holstein cows in Southeastern Brazil

A total of 152,145 weekly test-day milk yield records from 7317 first lactations of Holstein cows distributed in 93 herds in southeastern Brazil were analyzed. Test-day milk yields were classified into 44 weekly classes of DIM. The contemporary groups were defined as herd-year-week of test-day. The model included direct additive genetic, permanent environmental and residual effects as random and fixed effects of contemporary group and age of cow at calving as covariable, linear and quadratic effects. Mean trends were modeled by a cubic regression on orthogonal polynomials of DIM. Additive genetic and permanent environmental random effects were estimated by random regression on orthogonal Legendre polynomials. Residual variances were modeled using third to seventh-order variance functions or a step function with 1, 6,13,17 and 44 variance classes. Results from Akaike`s and Schwarz`s Bayesian information criterion suggested that a model considering a 7th-order Legendre polynomial for additive effect, a 12th-order polynomial for permanent environment effect and a step function with 6 classes for residual variances, fitted best. However, a parsimonious model, with a 6th-order Legendre polynomial for additive effects and a 7th-order polynomial for permanent environmental effects, yielded very similar genetic parameter estimates. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Milk yield, milk composition, eating behavior, and lamb performance of ewes fed diets containing soybean hulls replacing coastcross (Cynodon species) hay

The objective of this experiment was to evaluate the effects of replacing coastcross hay NDF by soybean hull (SH) NDF on the lactation performance and eating behavior of ewes and also on the performance of their lambs. Fifty-six Santa Ines lactating ewes (56.1 +/- 6.8 kg of initial BW; mean +/- SD) were penned individually and used in a randomized complete block design with 14 blocks and 4 treatments. Diets were formulated to provide similar concentrations of NDF (56%) and CP (16%). The SH NDF replaced 33 (SH33), 67 (SH67), or 100% (SH100) of the NDF contributed by coastcross hay in a 70% forage-based diet (SH0), resulting in SH inclusion rates of 0, 25, 54, and 85% of the dietary DM. Once a week, from the second to the eighth week of lactation (weaning time), ewes were separated from their lambs, stimulated by a 6-IU i.v. oxytocin injection, and hand milked to empty the udder. After 3 h, milk production was obtained after the same procedure. Quadratic effect for milk production (142.4, 179.8, 212.6, and 202.9 g/3 h) and cubic effect for DMI (2.27, 2.69, 3.25, and 3.00 kg/d) were observed as SH inclusion increased from 0 to 85% of the dietary DM. Milk fat (7.59, 7.86, 7.59, and 7.74%), protein (4.53, 4.43, 4.40, and 4.55%), and total solids (18.24, 18.54, 18.39, and 18.64%) did not differ among the 70% forage-based diet and diets with SH NDF replacing 33, 67, or 100% of the NDF. A linear increase in lactose concentration was observed with SH inclusion. Ewe BW gain during the trial showed a cubic response (0.37, 0.03, 4.80, and 2.80 kg) with SH inclusion. The preweaning ADG of lambs increased linearly, and ADG of lambs after weaning decreased linearly with SH inclusion. Final BW of lambs (2 wk after weaning) did not differ among treatments. Eating behavior observations were conducted with 44 ewes. The same facilities, experimental design, dietary treatments, and feeding management were used. Observations were visually recorded every 5 min for a 24-h period when ewes were 46 +/- 6.8 d in milk. Eating time (min/d, min/g of DMI, and min/g of NDF intake) and time expended in rumination and chewing activities (min/g of DMI and min/g of NDF intake) decreased linearly with the addition of SH in the diets. The inclusion of SH improved DMI and milk production, also reflecting on the BW of lambs at weaning. Milk performance was not affected when SH NDF replaced 100% of hay NDF.

Diet-induced milk fat depression: Association with changes in milk fatty acid composition and fluidity of milk fat

This experiment was designed to examine changes in milk fatty acids during fish oil-induced milk fat depression (MFD) and to test the theory that these changes are related to milk fat fluidity. The experiment was divided into three periods: 1) Baseline: all cows (n = 12) received a high fiber diet without fish oil (FO) for 12 days; 2) Treatment: 4 cows/group received the following treatments for 21 days: a) Low fiber diet without FO (LF), b) High fiber diet+FO (HF+FO) and c) Low fiber diet+FO (LF+FO); 3) Post-treatment: cows returned to the baseline diet and were monitored for 12 days. FO was included at 1.6% DM and HF and LF diets had 40 and 26% NDF, respectively. Milk fat content and yield were unchanged by the LF diet, but were reduced by FO diets at both dietary fiber levels and recovered in the post-treatment period. FO diets caused a pronounced reduction in stearic and oleic acid concentrations in milk fat and an equally pronounced increase in trans-18:1 fatty acid concentrations. Milk fat mean melting point (MMP) was correlated with MFD (r=0.73) and with milk oleic acid concentration (r=-0.92). The ratio of oleic:stearic in milk fat increased gradually and consistently in response to FO. Trans-C18:1 isomers with double bounds at carbon :<= 10 increased with greater MFD and those with double bonds at carbon ! I I decreased with greater MFD. Trans-9 cis-11 CLA explained more than 80% of MFD and was strongly correlated with trans-10 C18:1. Maintenance of MMP below 39-40 degrees C suggests that the mammary gland was able to secrete only milk fat with adequate fluidity and that MFD could be an adaptation mechanism to prevent secretion of milk with higher MMP. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.