221 resultados para 239903 Risk Theory


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In this work, we report a systematic investigation of upconversion losses and their effects on fluorescence quantum efficiency and fractional thermal loading in Nd(3+)-doped fluoride glasses. The energy transfer upconversion (gamma(up)) parameter, which describes upconversion losses, was experimentally determined using different methods: thermal lens (TL) technique and steady state luminescence (SSL) measurements. Additionally, the upconversion parameter was also obtained from energy transfer models and excited state absorption measurements. The results reveal that the microscopic treatment provided by the energy transfer models is similar to the macroscopic ones achieved from the TL and SSL measurements because similar gamma(up) parameters were obtained. Besides, the achieved results also point out the migration-assisted energy transfer according to diffusion-limited regime rather than hopping regime as responsible for the upconversion losses in Nd-doped glasses. (c) 2008 American Institute of Physics.

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Energy gaps are crucial aspects of the electronic structure of finite and extended systems. Whereas much is known about how to define and calculate charge gaps in density-functional theory (DFT), and about the relation between these gaps and derivative discontinuities of the exchange-correlation functional, much less is known about spin gaps. In this paper we give density-functional definitions of spin-conserving gaps, spin-flip gaps and the spin stiffness in terms of many-body energies and in terms of single-particle (Kohn-Sham) energies. Our definitions are as analogous as possible to those commonly made in the charge case, but important differences between spin and charge gaps emerge already on the single-particle level because unlike the fundamental charge gap spin gaps involve excited-state energies. Kohn-Sham and many-body spin gaps are predicted to differ, and the difference is related to derivative discontinuities that are similar to, but distinct from, those usually considered in the case of charge gaps. Both ensemble DFT and time-dependent DFT (TDDFT) can be used to calculate these spin discontinuities from a suitable functional. We illustrate our findings by evaluating our definitions for the Lithium atom, for which we calculate spin gaps and spin discontinuities by making use of near-exact Kohn-Sham eigenvalues and, independently, from the single-pole approximation to TDDFT. The many-body corrections to the Kohn-Sham spin gaps are found to be negative, i.e., single-particle calculations tend to overestimate spin gaps while they underestimate charge gaps.

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The knowledge of the atomic structure of clusters composed by few atoms is a basic prerequisite to obtain insights into the mechanisms that determine their chemical and physical properties as a function of diameter, shape, surface termination, as well as to understand the mechanism of bulk formation. Due to the wide use of metal systems in our modern life, the accurate determination of the properties of 3d, 4d, and 5d metal clusters poses a huge problem for nanoscience. In this work, we report a density functional theory study of the atomic structure, binding energies, effective coordination numbers, average bond lengths, and magnetic properties of the 3d, 4d, and 5d metal (30 elements) clusters containing 13 atoms, M(13). First, a set of lowest-energy local minimum structures (as supported by vibrational analysis) were obtained by combining high-temperature first- principles molecular-dynamics simulation, structure crossover, and the selection of five well-known M(13) structures. Several new lower energy configurations were identified, e. g., Pd(13), W(13), Pt(13), etc., and previous known structures were confirmed by our calculations. Furthermore, the following trends were identified: (i) compact icosahedral-like forms at the beginning of each metal series, more opened structures such as hexagonal bilayerlike and double simple-cubic layers at the middle of each metal series, and structures with an increasing effective coordination number occur for large d states occupation. (ii) For Au(13), we found that spin-orbit coupling favors the three-dimensional (3D) structures, i.e., a 3D structure is about 0.10 eV lower in energy than the lowest energy known two-dimensional configuration. (iii) The magnetic exchange interactions play an important role for particular systems such as Fe, Cr, and Mn. (iv) The analysis of the binding energy and average bond lengths show a paraboliclike shape as a function of the occupation of the d states and hence, most of the properties can be explained by the chemistry picture of occupation of the bonding and antibonding states.

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The origin of the unique geometry for nitric oxide (NO) adsorption on Pd(111) and Pt(111) surfaces as well as the effect of temperature were studied by density functional theory calculations and ab initio molecular dynamics at finite temperature. We found that at low coverage, the adsorption geometry is determined by electronic interactions, depending sensitively on the adsorption sites and coverages, and the effect of temperature on geometries is significant. At coverage of 0.25 monolayer (ML), adsorbed NO at hollow sites prefer an upright configuration, while NO adsorbed at top sites prefer a tilting configuration. With increase in the coverage up to 0.50 ML, the enhanced steric repulsion lead to the tilting of hollow NO. We found that the tilting was enhanced by the thermal effects. At coverage of 0.75 ML with p(2 x 2)-3NO(fcc+hcp+top) structure, we found that there was no preferential orientation for tilted top NO. The interplay of the orbital hybridization, thermal effects, steric repulsion, and their effects on the adsorption geometries were highlighted at the end.

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In this work, we report a density functional theory study of nitric oxide (NO) adsorption on close-packed transition metal (TM) Rh(111), Ir(111), Pd(111) and Pt(111) surfaces in terms of adsorption sites, binding mechanism and charge transfer at a coverage of Theta(NO) = 0.25, 0.50, 0.75 monolayer (ML). Based on our study, an unified picture for the interaction between NO and TM(111) and site preference is established, and valuable insights are obtained. At low coverage (0.25 ML), we find that the interaction of NO/TM(111) is determined by an electron donation and back-donation process via the interplay between NO 5 sigma/2 pi* and TM d-bands. The extent of the donation and back-donation depends critically on the coordination number (adsorption sites) and TM d-band filling, and plays an essential role for NO adsorption on TM surfaces. DFT calculations shows that for TMs with high d-band filling such as Pd and Pt, hollow-site NO is energetically the most favorable, and top-site NO prefers to tilt away from the normal direction. While for TMs with low d-band filling (Rh and Ir), top-site NO perpendicular to the surfaces is energetically most favorable. Electronic structure analysis show that irrespective of the TM and adsorption site, there is a net charge transfer from the substrate to the adsorbate due to overwhelming back-donation from the TM substrate to the adsorbed NO molecules. The adsorption-induced change of the work function with respect to bare surfaces and dipole moment is however site dependent, and the work function increases for hollow-site NO, but decreases for top-site NO, because of differences in the charge redistribution. The interplay between the energetics, lateral interaction and charge transfer, which is element dependent, rationalizes the structural evolution of NO adsorption on TM(111) surfaces in the submonolayer regime.

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Background: The heritability of cardiovascular risk factors is expected to differ between populations because of the different distribution of environmental risk factors, as well as the genetic make-up of different human populations. Methods: The purpose of this analysis was to evaluate genetic and environmental influences on cardiovascular risk factor traits, using a variance component approach, by estimating the heritability of these traits in a sample of 1,666 individuals in 81 families ascertained randomly from a highly admixed population of a city in a rural area in Brazil. Results: Before adjustment for sex, age, age(2), and age x sex interaction, polygenic heritability of systolic (SBP) and diastolic (DBP) blood pressure were 15.0% and 16.4%, waist circumference 26.1%, triglycerides 25.7%, fasting glucose 32.8%, HDL-c 31.2%, total cholesterol 28.6%, LDL-c 26.3%, BMI 39.1%. Adjustment for covariates increased polygenic heritability estimates for all traits mainly systolic and diastolic blood pressure (25.9 and 26.2%, respectively), waist circumference (40.1%), and BMI (51.0%). Conclusion: Heritability estimates for cardiovascular traits in the Brazilian population are high and not significantly different from other studied worldwide populations. Mapping efforts to identify genetic loci associated with variability of these traits are warranted.

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Background: Persistent infection with oncogenic types of human papillomavirus (HPV) is the major risk factor for invasive cervical cancer (ICC), and non-European variants of HPV-16 are associated with an increased risk of persistence and ICC. HLA class II polymorphisms are also associated with genetic susceptibility to ICC. Our aim is to verify if these associations are influenced by HPV-16 variability. Methods: We characterized HPV-16 variants by PCR in 107 ICC cases, which were typed for HLA-DQA1, DRB1 and DQB1 genes and compared to 257 controls. We measured the magnitude of associations by logistic regression analysis. Results: European ( E), Asian-American ( AA) and African (Af) variants were identified. Here we show that inverse association between DQB1*05 ( adjusted odds ratio [ OR] = 0.66; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.39-1.12]) and HPV-16 positive ICC in our previous report was mostly attributable to AA variant carriers ( OR = 0.27; 95% CI: 0.10-0.75). We observed similar proportions of HLA DRB1*1302 carriers in E-P positive cases and controls, but interestingly, this allele was not found in AA cases ( p = 0.03, Fisher exact test). A positive association with DRB1*15 was observed in both groups of women harboring either E ( OR = 2.99; 95% CI: 1.13-7.86) or AA variants ( OR = 2.34; 95% CI: 1.00-5.46). There was an inverse association between DRB1*04 and ICC among women with HPV-16 carrying the 350T [83L] single nucleotide polymorphism in the E6 gene ( OR = 0.27; 95% CI: 0.08-0.96). An inverse association between DQB1*05 and cases carrying 350G (83V) variants was also found ( OR = 0.37; 95% CI: 0.15-0.89). Conclusion: Our results suggest that the association between HLA polymorphism and risk of ICC might be influenced by the distribution of HPV-16 variants.

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We have investigated the stability, electronic properties, Rayleigh (elastic), and Raman (inelastic) depolarization ratios, infrared and Raman absorption vibrational spectra of fullerenols [C(60)(OH)(n)] with different degrees of hydroxylation by using all-electron density-functional-theory (DFT) methods. Stable arrangements of these molecules were found by means of full geometry optimizations using Becke's three-parameter exchange functional with the Lee, Yang, and Parr correlation functional. This DFT level has been combined with the 6-31G(d,p) Gaussian-type basis set, as a compromise between accuracy and capability to treat highly hydroxylated fullerenes, e.g., C(60)(OH)(36). Thus, the molecular properties of fullerenols were systematically analyzed for structures with n=1, 2, 3, 4, 8, 10, 16, 18, 24, 32, and 36. From the electronic structure analysis of these molecules, we have evidenced an important effect related to the weak chemical reactivity of a possible C(60)(OH)(24) isomer. To investigate Raman scattering and the vibrational spectra of the different fullerenols, frequency calculations are carried out within the harmonic approximation. In this case a systematic study is only performed for n=1-4, 8, 10, 16, 18, and 24. Our results give good agreements with the expected changes in the spectral absorptions due to the hydroxylation of fullerenes.

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This study aimed to evaluate the effects of physical exercise on body weight reduction. For 12 weeks, 22 obese women (BMI>30 kg/m(2)) were submitted to a physical exercise program. At the beginning and at the final of the program there were evaluated: BMI, waist (WC) and hip circumferences (HC), and waist-hip ratio (WHR); body composition by DEXA; hemoglobin and erythroctye, total cholesterol, HDL and LDL, triacylglycerol and blood glucose; aerobic power. At the final of the program, aerobic power, hemoglobin and erythrocyte values were significantly increased, confirming the physical training effects. Related to anthropometric values, only the visceral fat (WC, HC and WHR) were reduced. The exercise shows to be an important supporting in the body weight loss program, not exactly promoting body weight loss, but lowering risk factors to develop chronic diseases.

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The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive validity of the Braden Scale for Predicting Pressure Sore Risk in elderly residents of long-term care facilities (LTCFs) in Brazil. The determination of the cutoff score for the Brazilian population is important for the comparison between Brazilian and international studies and establishment of guidelines for prevention of pressure ulcers in our health care facilities. This is the first study of its kind in Brazil. This was a secondary analysis of a prospective cohort study conducted with 233 LTCF residents aged 60 and over who underwent complete skin examination and Braden Scale rating every 2 days for 3 months. Two groups of patients were considered: the total group (N = 233) and risk group (n = 94, total scores <= 18). Data from the first and last assessments were analyzed for sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios. The best results were obtained for the total group, with cutoff scores of 18 and 17, sensitivity of 75.9% and 74.1%, specificity of 70.3% and 75.4%, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) of 0.79 and 0.81 at the first and last assessments, respectively. For the risk group, the cutoff scores of 16 (first assessment) and 13 (last assessment) were associated with a smaller AUC-ROC and, therefore, lower predictive accuracy. The Braden Scale showed good predictive validity in elderly LTCF residents. (Geriatr Nurs 2010;31:95-104)

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AIM: We sought to evaluate the predictive validity of the Waterlow Scale in hospitalized patients. SUBJECTS AND SETTING: The study was conducted at a general private hospital with 220 beds and a mean time of hospitalization of 7.4 days and a mean occupation rate of approximately 80%. Adult patients with a Braden Scale score of 18 or less and a Waterlow Scale score of 16 or more were studied. The sample consisted of 98 patients with a mean age of 71.1 +/- 15.5 years. METHODS: Skin assessment and scoring by using the Waterlow and Braden scales were completed on alternate days. Patients were examined at least 3 times to be considered for analysis. The data were submitted to sensitivity and specificity analysis by using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and positive (+LR) and negative (-LR) likelihood ratios. RESULTS: The cutoff scores were 17, 20, and 20 in the first, second, and third assessment, respectively. Sensitivity was 71.4%, 85.7%, and 85.7% and specificity was 67.0%, 40.7%, and 32.9%, respectively. Analysis of the area under the ROC curve revealed good accuracy (0.64, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.35-0.93) only for the cutoff score 17 in the first assessment. The results also showed probabilities of 14%, 10%, and 9% for the development of pressure ulcer when the test results were positive (+LR) and of 3% (-LR) when the test results were negative for the cutoff scores in the first, second, and third assessment, respectively. CONCLUSION: The Waterlow Scale achieved good predictive validity in predicting pressure ulcer in hospitalized patients when a cutoff score of 17 was used in the first assessment.

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Objective: to identify risk factors associated with neonatal transfers from a free-standing birth centre to a hospital. Design: epidemiological case-control study. Setting: midwifery-led free-standing birth centre in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Participants: 96 newborns were selected from 2840 births between September 1998 and August 2005. Cases were defined as all new borns transferred from the birth centre to a hospital (n = 32), and controls were defined as new borns delivered at the same birth centre, during the same time period, and who had not been transferred to a hospital (n = 64). Measurements and findings: data were collected from medical records available at the birth centre. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed using logistic regression. The multivariate analysis included outcomes with p<0.25, specifically: smoking during pregnancy, prenatal care appointments, labour complications, weight in relation to gestational age, and one-minute Apgar score. Of the foregoing outcomes, those that remained in the full regression model as a risk factor associated with neonatal transfer were: smoking during pregnancy [p = 0.009, odds ratio (OR) = 4.1,95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03-16.33], labour complications (p<0.001, OR = 5.5, 95% CI 1.06-28.26) and one-minute Apgar score <= 7 (p<0.001, OR = 7.8,95% CI 1.62-37.03). Key conclusions and implications for practice: smoking during pregnancy, labour complications and one-minute Apgar score <= 7 were confirmed as risk factors for neonatal transfer from the birth centre to a hospital. The identified risk factors can help to improve institutional protocols and formulate hypotheses for other studies. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Background: There is growing demand for the adoption of qualification systems for health care practices. This study is aimed at describing the development and validation of indicators for evaluation of biologic occupational risk control programs. Methods: The study involved 3 stages: (1) setting up a research team, (2) development of indicators, and (3) validation of the indicators by a team of specialists recruited to validate each attribute of the developed indicators. The content validation method was used for the validation, and a psychometric scale was developed for the specialists` assessment. A consensus technique was used, and every attribute that obtained a Content Validity Index of at least 0.75 was approved. Results: Eight indicators were developed for the evaluation of the biologic occupational risk prevention program, with emphasis on accidents caused by sharp instruments and occupational tuberculosis prevention. The indicators included evaluation of the structure, process, and results at the prevention and biologic risk control levels. The majority of indicators achieved a favorable consensus regarding all validated attributes. Conclusion: The developed indicators were considered validated, and the method used for construction and validation proved to be effective.

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This paper describes the modeling of a weed infestation risk inference system that implements a collaborative inference scheme based on rules extracted from two Bayesian network classifiers. The first Bayesian classifier infers a categorical variable value for the weed-crop competitiveness using as input categorical variables for the total density of weeds and corresponding proportions of narrow and broad-leaved weeds. The inferred categorical variable values for the weed-crop competitiveness along with three other categorical variables extracted from estimated maps for the weed seed production and weed coverage are then used as input for a second Bayesian network classifier to infer categorical variables values for the risk of infestation. Weed biomass and yield loss data samples are used to learn the probability relationship among the nodes of the first and second Bayesian classifiers in a supervised fashion, respectively. For comparison purposes, two types of Bayesian network structures are considered, namely an expert-based Bayesian classifier and a naive Bayes classifier. The inference system focused on the knowledge interpretation by translating a Bayesian classifier into a set of classification rules. The results obtained for the risk inference in a corn-crop field are presented and discussed. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Despite modern weed control practices, weeds continue to be a threat to agricultural production. Considering the variability of weeds, a classification methodology for the risk of infestation in agricultural zones using fuzzy logic is proposed. The inputs for the classification are attributes extracted from estimated maps for weed seed production and weed coverage using kriging and map analysis and from the percentage of surface infested by grass weeds, in order to account for the presence of weed species with a high rate of development and proliferation. The output for the classification predicts the risk of infestation of regions of the field for the next crop. The risk classification methodology described in this paper integrates analysis techniques which may help to reduce costs and improve weed control practices. Results for the risk classification of the infestation in a maize crop field are presented. To illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed system, the risk of infestation over the entire field is checked against the yield loss map estimated by kriging and also with the average yield loss estimated from a hyperbolic model.