Mean sea-level rise impacts on Santos Bay, Southeastern Brazil - physical modelling study

The greenhouse effect and resulting increase in the Earth`s temperature may accelerate the mean sea-level rise. The natural response of bays and estuaries to this rise, such as this case study of Santos Bay (Brazil), will include change in shoreline position, land flooding and wetlands impacts. The main impacts of this scenario were studied in a physical model built in the Coastal and Harbour Division of Hydraulic Laboratory, University of Sao Paulo, and the main conclusions are presented in this paper. The model reproduces near 1,000 km(2) of the study area, including Santos, Sao Vicente, Praia Grande, Cubatao, Guaruja and Bertioga cities.

Galerkin finite element method for incompressible thermofluid flows framed within the bond graph theory

In this paper a bond graph methodology is used to model incompressible fluid flows with viscous and thermal effects. The distinctive characteristic of these flows is the role of pressure, which does not behave as a state variable but as a function that must act in such a way that the resulting velocity field has divergence zero. Velocity and entropy per unit volume are used as independent variables for a single-phase, single-component flow. Time-dependent nodal values and interpolation functions are introduced to represent the flow field, from which nodal vectors of velocity and entropy are defined as state variables. The system for momentum and continuity equations is coincident with the one obtained by using the Galerkin method for the weak formulation of the problem in finite elements. The integral incompressibility constraint is derived based on the integral conservation of mechanical energy. The weak formulation for thermal energy equation is modeled with true bond graph elements in terms of nodal vectors of temperature and entropy rates, resulting a Petrov-Galerkin method. The resulting bond graph shows the coupling between mechanical and thermal energy domains through the viscous dissipation term. All kind of boundary conditions are handled consistently and can be represented as generalized effort or flow sources. A procedure for causality assignment is derived for the resulting graph, satisfying the Second principle of Thermodynamics. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Computer-Assisted Numerical Analysis for Oxygen and Carbon Dioxide Mass Transfer in Blood Oxygenators

A two-dimensional numeric simulator is developed to predict the nonlinear, convective-reactive, oxygen mass exchange in a cross-flow hollow fiber blood oxygenator. The numeric simulator also calculates the carbon dioxide mass exchange, as hemoglobin affinity to oxygen is affected by the local pH value, which depends mostly on the local carbon dioxide content in blood. Blood pH calculation inside the oxygenator is made by the simultaneous solution of an equation that takes into account the blood buffering capacity and the classical Henderson-Hasselbach equation. The modeling of the mass transfer conductance in the blood comprises a global factor, which is a function of the Reynolds number, and a local factor, which takes into account the amount of oxygen reacted to hemoglobin. The simulator is calibrated against experimental data for an in-line fiber bundle. The results are: (i) the calibration process allows the precise determination of the mass transfer conductance for both oxygen and carbon dioxide; (ii) very alkaline pH values occur in the blood path at the gas inlet side of the fiber bundle; (iii) the parametric analysis of the effect of the blood base excess (BE) shows that V(CO2) is similar in the case of blood metabolic alkalosis, metabolic acidosis, or normal BE, for a similar blood inlet P(CO2), although the condition of metabolic alkalosis is the worst case, as the pH in the vicinity of the gas inlet is the most alkaline; (iv) the parametric analysis of the effect of the gas flow to blood flow ratio (Q(G)/Q(B)) shows that V(CO2) variation with the gas flow is almost linear up to Q(G)/Q(B) = 2.0. V(O2) is not affected by the gas flow as it was observed that by increasing the gas flow up to eight times, the V(O2) grows only 1%. The mass exchange of carbon dioxide uses the full length of the hollow-fiber only if Q(G)/Q(B) > 2.0, as it was observed that only in this condition does the local variation of pH and blood P(CO2) comprise the whole fiber bundle.

MODELLING AND CONTROL OF ERSW PROCESSES BY NEURONAL NETWORK

A study on the use of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques for the modelling and subsequent control of an electric resistance spot welding process (ERSW) is presented. The ERSW process is characterized by the coupling of thermal, electrical, mechanical, and metallurgical phenomena. For this reason, early attempts to model it using computational methods established as the methods of finite differences, finite element, and finite volumes, ask for simplifications that lead the model obtained far from reality or very costly in terms of computational costs, to be used in a real-time control system. In this sense, the authors have developed an ERSW controller that uses fuzzy logic to adjust the energy transferred to the weld nugget. The proposed control strategies differ in the speed with which it reaches convergence. Moreover, their application for a quality control of spot weld through artificial neural networks (ANN) is discussed.

Modelling grain boundary migration during geometric dynamic recrystallization

High-angle grain boundary migration is predicted during geometric dynamic recrystallization (GDRX) by two types of mathematical models. Both models consider the driving pressure due to curvature and a sinusoidal driving pressure owing to subgrain walls connected to the grain boundary. One model is based on the finite difference solution of a kinetic equation, and the other, on a numerical technique in which the boundary is subdivided into linear segments. The models show that an initially flat boundary becomes serrated, with the peak and valley migrating into both adjacent grains, as observed during GDRX. When the sinusoidal driving pressure amplitude is smaller than 2 pi, the boundary stops migrating, reaching an equilibrium shape. Otherwise, when the amplitude is larger than 2 pi, equilibrium is never reached and the boundary migrates indefinitely, which would cause the protrusions of two serrated parallel boundaries to impinge on each other, creating smaller equiaxed grains.

Title Model for Computer Networks Optimization

The TCP/IP architecture was consolidated as a standard to the distributed systems. However, there are several researches and discussions about alternatives to the evolution of this architecture and, in this study area, this work presents the Title Model to contribute with the application needs support by the cross layer ontology use and the horizontal addressing, in a next generation Internet. For a practical viewpoint, is showed the network cost reduction for the distributed programming example, in networks with layer 2 connectivity. To prove the title model enhancement, it is presented the network analysis performed for the message passing interface, sending a vector of integers and returning its sum. By this analysis, it is confirmed that the current proposal allows, in this environment, a reduction of 15,23% over the total network traffic, in bytes.

A modified epidemiological model for computer viruses

Since the computer viruses pose a serious problem to individual and corporative computer systems, a lot of effort has been dedicated to study how to avoid their deleterious actions, trying to create anti-virus programs acting as vaccines in personal computers or in strategic network nodes. Another way to combat viruses propagation is to establish preventive policies based on the whole operation of a system that can be modeled with population models, similar to those that are used in epidemiological studies. Here, a modified version of the SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model is presented and how its parameters are related to network characteristics is explained. Then, disease-free and endemic equilibrium points are calculated, stability and bifurcation conditions are derived and some numerical simulations are shown. The relations among the model parameters in the several bifurcation conditions allow a network design minimizing viruses risks. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dynamic models for computer viruses

Computer viruses are an important risk to computational systems endangering either corporations of all sizes or personal computers used for domestic applications. Here, classical epidemiological models for disease propagation are adapted to computer networks and, by using simple systems identification techniques a model called SAIC (Susceptible, Antidotal, Infectious, Contaminated) is developed. Real data about computer viruses are used to validate the model. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On the use of correlated beta random variables with animal population modelling

We give reasons why demographic parameters such as survival and reproduction rates are often modelled well in stochastic population simulation using beta distributions. In practice, it is frequently expected that these parameters will be correlated, for example with survival rates for all age classes tending to be high or low in the same year. We therefore discuss a method for producing correlated beta random variables by transforming correlated normal random variables, and show how it can be applied in practice by means of a simple example. We also note how the same approach can be used to produce correlated uniform triangular, and exponential random variables. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The exponentiated generalized gamma distribution with application to lifetime data

A four-parameter extension of the generalized gamma distribution capable of modelling a bathtub-shaped hazard rate function is defined and studied. The beauty and importance of this distribution lies in its ability to model monotone and non-monotone failure rate functions, which are quite common in lifetime data analysis and reliability. The new distribution has a number of well-known lifetime special sub-models, such as the exponentiated Weibull, exponentiated generalized half-normal, exponentiated gamma and generalized Rayleigh, among others. We derive two infinite sum representations for its moments. We calculate the density of the order statistics and two expansions for their moments. The method of maximum likelihood is used for estimating the model parameters and the observed information matrix is obtained. Finally, a real data set from the medical area is analysed.

Modelling the potential distribution of the invasive tomato red spider mite, Tetranychus evansi (Acari: Tetranychidae)

Predicting the potential geographical distribution of a species is particularly important for pests with strong invasive abilities. Tetranychus evansi Baker & Pritchard, possibly native to South America, is a spider mite pest of solanaceous crops. This mite is considered an invasive species in Africa and Europe. A CLIMEX model was developed to predict its global distribution. The model results fitted the known records of T. evansi except for some records in dry locations. Dryness as well as excess moisture stresses play important roles in limiting the spread of the mite in the tropics. In North America and Eurasia its potential distribution appears to be essentially limited by cold stress. Detailed potential distribution maps are provided for T. evansi in the Mediterranean Basin and in Japan. These two regions correspond to climatic borders for the species. Mite establishment in these areas can be explained by their relatively mild winters. The Mediterranean region is also the main area where tomato is grown in open fields in Europe and where the pest represents a threat. According to the model, the whole Mediterranean region has the potential to be extensively colonized by the mite. Wide expansion of the mite to new areas in Africa is also predicted. Agricultural issues highlighted by the modelled distribution of the pest are discussed.

Parametric and nonparametric statistical modelling of crop yield: implications for pricing crop insurance contracts

This article considers alternative methods to calculate the fair premium rate of crop insurance contracts based on county yields. The premium rate was calculated using parametric and nonparametric approaches to estimate the conditional agricultural yield density. These methods were applied to a data set of county yield provided by the Statistical and Geography Brazilian Institute (IBGE), for the period of 1990 through 2002, for soybean, corn and wheat, in the State of Paran. In this article, we propose methodological alternatives to pricing crop insurance contracts resulting in more accurate premium rates in a situation of limited data.

Modelling the progress of Asiatic citrus canker on Tahiti lime in relation to temperature and leaf wetness

The combined effect of temperature (15A degrees C, 20A degrees C, 25A degrees C, 30A degrees C, 35A degrees C, 40A degrees C and 42A degrees C) and leaf wetness duration (0, 4, 8 12, 16, 20 and 24 h) on infection and development of Asiatic citrus canker (Xanthomonas citri subsp. citri) on Tahiti lime plant was examined in growth chambers. No disease developed at 42A degrees C and zero hours of leaf wetness. Periods of leaf wetness as short as 4 h were sufficient for citrus canker infection. However, a longer leaf duration wetness (24 h) did not result in much increase in the incidence of citrus canker, but led to twice the number of lesions and four times the disease severity. Temperature was the greatest factor influencing disease development. At optimum temperatures (25-35A degrees C), there was 100% disease incidence. Maximum disease development was observed at 30-35A degrees C, with up to a 12-fold increase in lesion density, a 10-fold increase in lesion size and a 60-fold increase in disease severity.

Identification by computer-simulated RFLP of phytoplasmas associated with eggplant giant calyx representative of two subgroups, a lineage of 16SrIII-J and the new subgroup 16SrIII-U

Symptoms resembling giant calyx, a graft-transmissible disease, were observed on 1-5% of eggplant (aubergine; Solanum melongena L.) plants in production fields in Sao Paulo state, Brazil. Phytoplasmas were detected in 1 2 of 1 2 samples from symptomatic plants that were analysed by a nested PCR assay employing 16S rRNA gene primers R16mF2/R16mR1 followed by R16F2n/R16R2. RFLP analysis of the resulting rRNA gene products (1.2 kb) indicated that all plants contained similar phytoplasmas, each closely resembling strains previously classified as members of RFLP group 16SrIII (X-disease group). Virtual RFLP and phylogenetic analyses of sequences derived from PCR products identified phytoplasmas infecting eggplant crops grown in Piracicaba as a lineage of the subgroup 16SrIII-J, whereas phytoplasmas detected in plants grown in Braganca Paulista were tentatively classified as members of a novel subgroup 16SrIII-U. These findings confirm eggplant as a new host of group 16SrIII-J phytoplasmas and extend the known diversity of strains belonging to this group in Brazil.

Cloning, expression, molecular modelling and docking analysis of glutathione transferase from Saccharum officinarum

Sugarcane yield and quality are affected by a number of biotic and abiotic stresses. In response to such stresses, plants may increase the activities of some enzymes such as glutathione transferase (GST), which are involved in the detoxification of xenobiotics. Thus, a sugarcane GST was modelled and molecular docked using the program LIGIN to investigate the contributions of the active site residues towards the binding of reduced glutathione (GSH) and 1-chloro-2,4-dinitrobenzene (CDNB). As a result, W13 and I119 were identified as key residues for the specificity of sugarcane GSTF1 (SoGSTF1) towards CDNB. To obtain a better understanding of the catalytic specificity of sugarcane GST (SoGSTF1), two mutants were designed, W13L and I119F. Tertiary structure models and the same docking procedure were performed to explain the interactions between sugarcane GSTs with GSH and CDNB. An electron-sharing network for GSH interaction was also proposed. The SoGSTF1 and the mutated gene constructions were cloned and expressed in Escherichia coli and the expressed protein purified. Kinetic analyses revealed different Km values not only for CDNB, but also for GSH. The Km values were 0.2, 1.3 and 0.3 mM for GSH, and 0.9, 1.2 and 0.5 mM for CDNB, for the wild type, W13L mutant and I119F mutant, respectively. The V(max) values were 297.6, 224.5 and 171.8 mu mol min(-1) mg(-1) protein for GSH, and 372.3, 170.6 and 160.4 mu mol min(-1) mg(-1) protein for CDNB.