Predictive Validity of Waterlow Scale for Pressure Ulcer Development Risk in Hospitalized Patients

AIM: We sought to evaluate the predictive validity of the Waterlow Scale in hospitalized patients. SUBJECTS AND SETTING: The study was conducted at a general private hospital with 220 beds and a mean time of hospitalization of 7.4 days and a mean occupation rate of approximately 80%. Adult patients with a Braden Scale score of 18 or less and a Waterlow Scale score of 16 or more were studied. The sample consisted of 98 patients with a mean age of 71.1 +/- 15.5 years. METHODS: Skin assessment and scoring by using the Waterlow and Braden scales were completed on alternate days. Patients were examined at least 3 times to be considered for analysis. The data were submitted to sensitivity and specificity analysis by using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and positive (+LR) and negative (-LR) likelihood ratios. RESULTS: The cutoff scores were 17, 20, and 20 in the first, second, and third assessment, respectively. Sensitivity was 71.4%, 85.7%, and 85.7% and specificity was 67.0%, 40.7%, and 32.9%, respectively. Analysis of the area under the ROC curve revealed good accuracy (0.64, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.35-0.93) only for the cutoff score 17 in the first assessment. The results also showed probabilities of 14%, 10%, and 9% for the development of pressure ulcer when the test results were positive (+LR) and of 3% (-LR) when the test results were negative for the cutoff scores in the first, second, and third assessment, respectively. CONCLUSION: The Waterlow Scale achieved good predictive validity in predicting pressure ulcer in hospitalized patients when a cutoff score of 17 was used in the first assessment.

Risk factors for neonatal transfers from the Sapopemba free-standing birth centre to a hospital in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Objective: to identify risk factors associated with neonatal transfers from a free-standing birth centre to a hospital. Design: epidemiological case-control study. Setting: midwifery-led free-standing birth centre in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Participants: 96 newborns were selected from 2840 births between September 1998 and August 2005. Cases were defined as all new borns transferred from the birth centre to a hospital (n = 32), and controls were defined as new borns delivered at the same birth centre, during the same time period, and who had not been transferred to a hospital (n = 64). Measurements and findings: data were collected from medical records available at the birth centre. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed using logistic regression. The multivariate analysis included outcomes with p<0.25, specifically: smoking during pregnancy, prenatal care appointments, labour complications, weight in relation to gestational age, and one-minute Apgar score. Of the foregoing outcomes, those that remained in the full regression model as a risk factor associated with neonatal transfer were: smoking during pregnancy [p = 0.009, odds ratio (OR) = 4.1,95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03-16.33], labour complications (p<0.001, OR = 5.5, 95% CI 1.06-28.26) and one-minute Apgar score <= 7 (p<0.001, OR = 7.8,95% CI 1.62-37.03). Key conclusions and implications for practice: smoking during pregnancy, labour complications and one-minute Apgar score <= 7 were confirmed as risk factors for neonatal transfer from the birth centre to a hospital. The identified risk factors can help to improve institutional protocols and formulate hypotheses for other studies. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of biologic occupational risk control practices: Quality indicators development and validation

Background: There is growing demand for the adoption of qualification systems for health care practices. This study is aimed at describing the development and validation of indicators for evaluation of biologic occupational risk control programs. Methods: The study involved 3 stages: (1) setting up a research team, (2) development of indicators, and (3) validation of the indicators by a team of specialists recruited to validate each attribute of the developed indicators. The content validation method was used for the validation, and a psychometric scale was developed for the specialists` assessment. A consensus technique was used, and every attribute that obtained a Content Validity Index of at least 0.75 was approved. Results: Eight indicators were developed for the evaluation of the biologic occupational risk prevention program, with emphasis on accidents caused by sharp instruments and occupational tuberculosis prevention. The indicators included evaluation of the structure, process, and results at the prevention and biologic risk control levels. The majority of indicators achieved a favorable consensus regarding all validated attributes. Conclusion: The developed indicators were considered validated, and the method used for construction and validation proved to be effective.

Using Bayesian networks with rule extraction to infer the risk of weed infestation in a corn-crop

This paper describes the modeling of a weed infestation risk inference system that implements a collaborative inference scheme based on rules extracted from two Bayesian network classifiers. The first Bayesian classifier infers a categorical variable value for the weed-crop competitiveness using as input categorical variables for the total density of weeds and corresponding proportions of narrow and broad-leaved weeds. The inferred categorical variable values for the weed-crop competitiveness along with three other categorical variables extracted from estimated maps for the weed seed production and weed coverage are then used as input for a second Bayesian network classifier to infer categorical variables values for the risk of infestation. Weed biomass and yield loss data samples are used to learn the probability relationship among the nodes of the first and second Bayesian classifiers in a supervised fashion, respectively. For comparison purposes, two types of Bayesian network structures are considered, namely an expert-based Bayesian classifier and a naive Bayes classifier. The inference system focused on the knowledge interpretation by translating a Bayesian classifier into a set of classification rules. The results obtained for the risk inference in a corn-crop field are presented and discussed. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A classification methodology for the risk of weed infestation using fuzzy logic

Despite modern weed control practices, weeds continue to be a threat to agricultural production. Considering the variability of weeds, a classification methodology for the risk of infestation in agricultural zones using fuzzy logic is proposed. The inputs for the classification are attributes extracted from estimated maps for weed seed production and weed coverage using kriging and map analysis and from the percentage of surface infested by grass weeds, in order to account for the presence of weed species with a high rate of development and proliferation. The output for the classification predicts the risk of infestation of regions of the field for the next crop. The risk classification methodology described in this paper integrates analysis techniques which may help to reduce costs and improve weed control practices. Results for the risk classification of the infestation in a maize crop field are presented. To illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed system, the risk of infestation over the entire field is checked against the yield loss map estimated by kriging and also with the average yield loss estimated from a hyperbolic model.

GIS applied to geotechnical and environmental risk management in a Brazilian oil pipeline

The paper presents the development of a decision support system for the management of geotechnical and environmental risks in oil pipelines using a geographical information system. The system covers a 48.5 km long section of the So Paulo to Brasilia (OSBRA) oil pipeline, which crosses three municipalities in the northeast region of the So Paulo state (Brazil) and represents an area of 205.8 km(2). The spatial database was created using geo-processing procedures, surface and intrusive investigations and geotechnical reports. The risk assessment was based mainly on qualitative models (relative numeric weights and multicriteria decision analysis) and considered pluvial erosion, slope movements, soil corrosion and third party activities. The maps were produced at a scale of 1:10,000.

Influence of the microstructure in the collapse of a residual clayey tropical soil

A typical residual clayey soil originating from basalt in southern Brazil has been analyzed in order to assess the influence of wetting-induced deformation and microstructural features on the collapse behavior. Single and double oedometer tests were undertaken on a soil profile to 9 m depth. The results indicated collapsible behaviour at all profile depths. The influence of pre-consolidation stress and pedogenetic factors in the variability of the physical characteristics of the soil and in the magnitude of the collapse was noted. The collapse coefficient has been shown to be related to the both the microaggregate plasma and the varying nature of the pores and their interconnectivity.

Specific methanogenic activity in an anaerobic-aerobic reactor applied to the treatment of domestic residual water

The specific methanogenic activity (SMA) test is an important tool for the monitoring of anaerobic digestion. This paper presents the behavior of the methanogenic archaea of an anaerobic sludge under different conditions of oxygenation in a fixed-bed anaerobic-aerobic reactor treating domestic sewage. The reactor was operated in a continuous manner under different liquid recycle ratios from aerobic to anaerobic zones in order to remove carbon and nitrogen. The application of the SMA test was adapted from several authors and the measurement of the accumulated methane in the reactor was carried out by means of gas chromatography. Methanogenic organisms were not inhibited by the presence of oxygen. In contrast, the values of CH, production rate by sludge exposed to oxygen were greater than those obtained for strictly anaerobic sludge.

Internal Residual Stresses in Sintered and Commercial Low Expansion Li(2)O-Al(2)O(3)-SiO(2) Glass-Ceramics

We performed Synchrotron X-ray diffraction (XRD) analyses of internal residual stresses in monolithic samples of a newly developed Li(2)O-Al(2)O(3)-SiO(2) (LAS) glass-ceramic produced by sintering and in a commercial LAS glass-ceramic, CERAN (R), produced by the traditional crystal nucleation and growth treatments. The elastic constants were measured by instrumented indentation and a pulse-echo technique. The thermal expansion coefficient of virgilite was determined by high temperature XRD and dilatometry. The c-axis contracts with the increasing temperature whereas the a-axis does not vary significantly. Microcracking of the microstructure affects the thermal expansion coefficients measured by dilatometry and thermal expansion hysteresis is observed for the sintered glass-ceramic as well as for CERAN (R). The measured internal stress is quite low for both glass-ceramics and can be explained by theoretical modeling if the high volume fraction of the crystalline phase (virgilite) is considered. Using a modified Green model, the calculated critical (glass) island diameter for spontaneous cracking agreed with experimental observations. The experimental data collected also allowed the calculation of the critical crystal grain diameters for grain-boundary microcracking due to the anisotropy of thermal expansion of virgilite and for microcracking in the residual glass phase surrounding the virgilite particles. All these parameters are important for the successful microstructural design of sintered glass-ceramics.

Fuzzy risk index for power transformer failures due to external short-circuits

A novel methodology to assess the risk of power transformer failures caused by external faults, such as short-circuit, taking the paper insulation condition into account, is presented. The risk index is obtained by contrasting the insulation paper condition with the probability that the transformer withstands the short-circuit current flowing along the winding during an external fault. In order to assess the risk, this probability and the value of the degree of polymerization of the insulating paper are regarded as inputs of a type-2 fuzzy logic system (T2-FLS), which computes the fuzzy risk level. A Monte Carlo simulation has been used to find the survival function of the currents flowing through the transformer winding during a single-phase or a three-phase short-circuit. The Roy Billinton Test System and a real power system have been used to test the results. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Residual stresses in titanium nitride thin films obtained with step variation of substrate bias voltage during deposition

In this work, a series of depositions of titanium nitride (TiN) films on M2 and D2 steel substrates were conducted in a Triode Magnetron Sputtering chamber. The temperature; gas flow and pressure were kept constant during each run. The substrate bias was either decreased or increased in a sequence of steps. Residual stress measurements were later conducted through the grazing X-ray diffraction method. Different incident angles were used in order to change the penetration depth and to obtain values of residual stress at different film depths. A model described by Dolle was adapted as an attempt to calculate the values of residual stress at each incident angle as a function of the value from each individual layer. Stress results indicated that the decrease in bias voltage during the deposition has produced compressive residual stress gradients through the film thickness. On the other hand, much less pronounced gradients were found in one of the films deposited with increasing bias voltage. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Residual stresses in TiN, DLC and MoS(2) coated surfaces with regard to their tribological fracture behaviour

Thin hard coatings on components and tools are used increasingly due to the rapid development in deposition techniques, tribological performance and application skills. The residual stresses in a coated surface are crucial for its tribological performance. Compressive residual stresses in PVD deposited TiN and DLC coatings were measured to be in the range of 0.03-4 GPa on steel substrate and 0.1-1.3 GPa on silicon. MoS(2) coatings had tensional stresses in the range of 0.8-1.3 on steel and 0.16 GPa compressive stresses on silicon. The fracture pattern of coatings deposited on steel substrate were analysed both in bend testing and scratch testing. A micro-scale finite element method (FEM) modelling and stress simulation of a 2 mu m TiN-coated steel surface was carried out and showed a reduction of the generated tensile buckling stresses in front of the sliding tip when compressive residual stresses of 1 GPa were included in the model. However, this reduction is not similarly observed in the scratch groove behind the tip, possibly due to sliding contact-induced stress relaxation. Scratch and bending tests allowed calculation of the fracture toughness of the three coated surfaces, based on both empirical crack pattern observations and FEM stress calculation, which resulted in highest values for TiN coating followed by MoS(2) and DLC coatings, being K(C) = 4-11, about 2, and 1-2 MPa M(1/2), respectively. Higher compressive residual stresses in the coating and higher elastic modulus of the coating correlated to increased fracture toughness of the coated surface. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk-based decision making method for maintenance policy selection of thermal power plant equipment

This study presents a decision-making method for maintenance policy selection of power plants equipment. The method is based on risk analysis concepts. The method first step consists in identifying critical equipment both for power plant operational performance and availability based on risk concepts. The second step involves the proposal of a potential maintenance policy that could be applied to critical equipment in order to increase its availability. The costs associated with each potential maintenance policy must be estimated, including the maintenance costs and the cost of failure that measures the critical equipment failure consequences for the power plant operation. Once the failure probabilities and the costs of failures are estimated, a decision-making procedure is applied to select the best maintenance policy. The decision criterion is to minimize the equipment cost of failure, considering the costs and likelihood of occurrence of failure scenarios. The method is applied to the analysis of a lubrication oil system used in gas turbines journal bearings. The turbine has more than 150 MW nominal output, installed in an open cycle thermoelectric power plant. A design modification with the installation of a redundant oil pump is proposed for lubricating oil system availability improvement. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of rolling on the residual stresses and magnetic properties of a 0.5% Si electrical steel

Cold-rolled (0-19% of reduction) 0.5% Si electrical steel sheets were studied in detail, including macro and micro residual stress measurements, crystallographic texture, dc-hysteresis curves and iron losses. Even for the smallest deformation, losses increase significantly, with large increase of the hysteresis losses, whereas the anomalous losses reduce slightly. The residual microstresses are similar to 150-350 MPa, whereas residual macrostresses are compressive, similar to 50 MPa. The large increase of the hysteresis losses is attributed to the residual microstresses. The dislocation density estimated by X-ray diffraction is in reasonable agreement with that predicted from the Sablik et al. model for effect of plastic deformation on hysteresis. The intensity of the texture fibers {1 1 1}< u v w > and < 110 >//RD (RD = rolling direction) increases with the reduction. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of mechanical properties, residual stress and indenter tip geometry on instrumented indentation data in thin films

In this work, an axisymmetric two-dimensional finite element model was developed to simulate instrumented indentation testing of thin ceramic films deposited onto hard steel substrates. The level of film residual stress (sigma(r)), the film elastic modulus (E) and the film work hardening exponent (n) were varied to analyze their effects on indentation data. These numerical results were used to analyze experimental data that were obtained with titanium nitride coated specimens, in which the substrate bias applied during deposition was modified to obtain films with different levels of sigma(r). Good qualitative correlation was obtained when numerical and experimental results were compared, as long as all film properties are considered in the analyses, and not only sigma(r). The numerical analyses were also used to further understand the effect of sigma(r) on the mechanical properties calculated based on instrumented indentation data. In this case, the hardness values obtained based on real or calculated contact areas are similar only when sink-in occurs, i.e. with high n or high ratio VIE, where Y is the yield strength of the film. In an additional analysis, four ratios (R/h(max)) between indenter tip radius and maximum penetration depth were simulated to analyze the combined effects of R and sigma(r) on the indentation load-displacement curves. In this case, or did not significantly affect the load curve exponent, which was affected only by the indenter tip radius. On the other hand, the proportional curvature coefficient was significantly affected by sigma(r) and n. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.