Debt Maturity: Is Long-Term Debt Optimal?

We model and calibrate the arguments in favor and against short-term and long-term debt. These arguments broadly include: maturity premium, sustainability, and service smoothing. We use a dynamic-equilibrium model with tax distortions and government outlays uncertainty, and model maturity as the fraction of debt that needs to be rolled over every period. In the model, the benefits of defaulting are tempered by higher future interest rates. We then calibrate our artificial economy and solve for the optimal debt maturity for Brazil as an example of a developing country and the US as an example of a mature economy. We obtain that the calibrated costs from defaulting on long-term debt more than offset costs associated with short-term debt. Therefore, short-term debt implies higher welfare levels.

Optimal reserve management and sovereign debt

Most models currently used to determine optimal foreign reserve holdings take the level of international debt as given. However, given the sovereign`s willingness-to-pay incentive problems, reserve accumulation may reduce sustainable debt levels. In addition, assuming constant debt levels does not allow addressing one of the puzzles behind using reserves as a means to avoid the negative effects of crisis: why do not sovereign countries reduce their sovereign debt instead? To study the joint decision of holding sovereign debt and reserves, we construct a stochastic dynamic equilibrium model calibrated to a sample of emerging markets. We obtain that the reserve accumulation does not play a quantitatively important role in this model. In fact, we find the optimal policy is not to hold reserves at all. This finding is robust to considering interest rate shocks, sudden stops, contingent reserves and reserve dependent output costs. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sexual ratio, reproductive period and seasonal variation of the gonochoric shrimp Hippolyte obliquimanus (Caridea: Hippolytidae)

Hippolyte obliquimanus is a small, gonochoric shrimp found in algal substrates along the western Atlantic coast of Brazil, particularly in association with seaweed of the genus Sargassum. We studied population features (sexual ratio, reproductive period and temporal distribution) of H. obliquimanus in southeastern Brazil, including its relationships with the seasonality of banks of this alga. Specimens were collected at two-monthly intervals from March 2005 to January 2006, in Ubatuba Bay. The sex of individuals was checked, and the carapace length measured. In total, 668 individuals were collected: 211 males (0.70-2.50 mm carapace length), 341 non-ovigerous females (0.55-2.90 mm), and 116 ovigerous females (1.55-3.20 mm). Hippolyte obliquimanus showed seasonal-continuous reproduction and variable continuous recruitment. The highest number of animals (75%) was collected in fall-winter. The percentages of ovigerous females/total females (fall-winter: 27%; spring-summer: 26%) and the sexual ratio (fall-winter: 31%; spring-summer: 32%) were practically equal in both periods. The sexual ratio showed a predominance of females in almost all size classes, and we detected a new sex ratio pattern for this species. The seasonal variation in the number of individuals can be related to its migration to deeper areas, due to the decrease in the abundance of Sargassum sp. in shallower waters in spring-summer.

Incorporation of antigenic GPI-proteins from Leishmania amazonensis to membrane mimetic systems: Influence of DPPC/cholesterol ratio

The reconstitution of membrane proteins into liposomes is a useful tool to prepare antigenic components that induce immunity. We have investigated the influence of the dipalmitoylphosphatidylcholine (DPPC)/cholesterol molar ratio on the incorporation of a GPI-protein from Leishmania amazonensis on liposomes and Langmuir monolayers. The latter system is a well behaved and practical model, for understanding the effect of variables such as surface composition and lipid packing on protein incorporation. We have found that the DPPC/cholesterol molar ratio significantly alters the incorporation of the GPI-protein. In the absence of cholesterol, reconstitution is more difficult and proteoliposomes cannot be prepared, which we correlated with disruption of the DPPC layer. Our results provide important information that Could be employed in the development of a vaccine system for this disease or be used to produce other GPI-systems for biotechnological application. (c) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Niobium to alcohol mol ratio control of the concurring esterification and etherification reactions promoted by NbCl5 and Al2O3 catalysts under microwave irradiation

Alcohols and acids can be switched to produce ethers or esters by varying the alcohol to catalyst mol ratio, in a new etherification and esterification method using NbCl5/Al2O3 catalyst under ""solvent free"" conditions and promoted by MW (microwave) irradiation. A ""two sites"" mechanism for the reaction is proposed, in an attempt to clarify the tendency of the catalyst to be dependent on the alcohol alone during the esterification process. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Use of AST platelet ratio index (APRI Score) as an alternative to liver biopsy for treatment indication in chronic hepatitis C

Chronic hepatitis C (CHC) is one of the most important causes of chronic liver disease in the world, potentially resulting in cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and the need for liver transplantation. Liver biopsy is currently performed before therapy indication. Although, it is the golden standard there are many reasons to avoid or delay the procedure. APRI Score is an easy, low cost and practice alternative method which was described as an alternative for assessing structural changes in chronic hepatitis C (CHC). The rationale of this study was to observe the accuracy of APRI Score in comparison to liver biopsy in 400 patients divided into two groups of 200 carriers (Validation and Experimental groups respectively) selected at random or according to liver fibrosis staging (METAVIR). The ROC curves showed a concordance among these two methods of 92% and 88.5% when 1.05 was the cut off (F3 and F4), and 87% and 83%, on 0.75 cut offs (F2-F4). The discordance in advanced fibrosis staging (F3 and F4) was only 16 (8%) and 22 (11%) out of 200 patients in the experimental and validation groups, respectively. In 26 (13%) out of 200 patients in the experimental group and 34 (17%) out of 200 patients in the validation group, there was discordance between APRI Score and liver biopsy in moderate and advanced fibrosis (F2-F4). In conclusion APRI is a serological marker that has satisfactory sensitivity and specificity together with a high predictive value and it can be useful either in the absence of a biopsy or to reduce the frequency with which biopsies need to be carried out to monitor the evolution of chronic hepatitis C and the right moment for treatment indication.

The interaction between N-category and N-ratio as a new tool to improve lymph node metastasis staging in gastric cancer: Results of a single cancer center in Brazil

Background: Depth of tumor invasion (T-category) and the number of metastatic lymph nodes (N-category) are the most important prognostic factors in patients with gastric cancer. Recently, the ratio between metastatic and dissected lymph nodes (N-ratio) has been established as one. The aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of N-ratio and its interaction with N-category as a prognostic factor in gastric cancer. Methods: This was a retrospective study in which we reviewed clinical and pathological data of 165 patients who had undergone curative surgery at our institution through a 9-year period. The exclusion criteria included metastases, gastric stump tumors and gastrectomy with less than 15 lymph nodes dissected. Results: The median age of the patients was 63 years and most of them were male. Total gastrectomy was the most common procedure and 92.1% of the patients had a D2-lymphadenectomy. Their 5-year overall survival was 57.7%. T-category, N-category, extended gastrectomy, and N-ratio were prognostic factors in overall and disease-free survival in accordance with univariate analysis. In accordance with TNM staging, N1 patients who have had NR1 had 5-year survival in 75.5% whereas in the NR2 group only 33% of the cases had 5-year survival. In the multivariate analysis, the interaction between N-category and N-ratio was an independent prognostic factor. Conclusion: Our findings confirmed the role of N-ratio as prognostic factor of survival in patients with gastric cancer surgically treated with at least 15 lymph nodes dissected. The relationship between N-category and N-ratio is a better predictor than lymph node metastasis staging. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Viral Load Predicts New World Health Organization Stage 3 and 4 Events in HIV-Infected Children Receiving Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy, Independent of CD4 T Lymphocyte Value

Background. Many resource-limited countries rely on clinical and immunological monitoring without routine virological monitoring for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected children receiving highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). We assessed whether HIV load had independent predictive value in the presence of immunological and clinical data for the occurrence of new World Health Organization (WHO) stage 3 or 4 events (hereafter, WHO events) among HIV-infected children receiving HAART in Latin America. Methods. The NISDI (Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development International Site Development Initiative) Pediatric Protocol is an observational cohort study designed to describe HIV-related outcomes among infected children. Eligibility criteria for this analysis included perinatal infection, age ! 15 years, and continuous HAART for >= 6 months. Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to assess time to new WHO events as a function of immunological status, viral load, hemoglobin level, and potential confounding variables; laboratory tests repeated during the study were treated as time-varying predictors. Results. The mean duration of follow-up was 2.5 years; new WHO events occurred in 92 (15.8%) of 584 children. In proportional hazards modeling, most recent viral load 15000 copies/mL was associated with a nearly doubled risk of developing a WHO event (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.81; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-3.11; P = 033), even after adjustment for immunological status defined on the basis of CD4 T lymphocyte value, hemoglobin level, age, and body mass index. Conclusions. Routine virological monitoring using the WHO virological failure threshold of 5000 copies/mL adds independent predictive value to immunological and clinical assessments for identification of children receiving HAART who are at risk for significant HIV-related illness. To provide optimal care, periodic virological monitoring should be considered for all settings that provide HAART to children.

Transfusion Requirements After Cardiac Surgery The TRACS Randomized Controlled Trial

Context Perioperative red blood cell transfusion is commonly used to address anemia, an independent risk factor for morbidity and mortality after cardiac operations; however, evidence regarding optimal blood transfusion practice in patients undergoing cardiac surgery is lacking. Objective To define whether a restrictive perioperative red blood cell transfusion strategy is as safe as a liberal strategy in patients undergoing elective cardiac surgery. Design, Setting, and Patients The Transfusion Requirements After Cardiac Surgery (TRACS) study, a prospective, randomized, controlled clinical noninferiority trial conducted between February 2009 and February 2010 in an intensive care unit at a university hospital cardiac surgery referral center in Brazil. Consecutive adult patients (n=502) who underwent cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass were eligible; analysis was by intention-to-treat. Intervention Patients were randomly assigned to a liberal strategy of blood transfusion (to maintain a hematocrit >= 30%) or to a restrictive strategy (hematocrit >= 24%). Main Outcome Measure Composite end point of 30-day all-cause mortality and severe morbidity (cardiogenic shock, acute respiratory distress syndrome, or acute renal injury requiring dialysis or hemofiltration) occurring during the hospital stay. The noninferiority margin was predefined at -8% (ie, 8% minimal clinically important increase in occurrence of the composite end point). Results Hemoglobin concentrations were maintained at a mean of 10.5 g/dL(95% confidence interval [CI], 10.4-10.6) in the liberal-strategy group and 9.1 g/dL (95% CI, 9.09.2) in the restrictive-strategy group (P<.001). A total of 198 of 253 patients (78%) in the liberal-strategy group and 118 of 249 (47%) in the restrictive-strategy group received a blood transfusion (P<.001). Occurrence of the primary end point was similar between groups (10% liberal vs 11% restrictive; between-group difference, 1% [95% CI, -6% to 4%]; P=.85). Independent of transfusion strategy, the number of transfused red blood cell units was an independent risk factor for clinical complications or death at 30 days (hazard ratio for each additional unit transfused, 1.2 [95% CI, 1.1-1.4]; P=.002). Conclusion Among patients undergoing cardiac surgery, the use of a restrictive perioperative transfusion strategy compared with a more liberal strategy resulted in noninferior rates of the combined outcome of 30-day all-cause mortality and severe morbidity. Trial Registration clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01021631 JAMA. 2010; 304(14):1559-1567 www.jama.com

Ratio of Metalloproteinase 2 to Tissue Inhibitor of Metalloproteinase 2 in Medullary Thyroid Carcinoma

Objectives: To develop an index for the ratio of metalloproteinase 2 (MMP-2) to its tissue inhibitor (TIMP-2) in immunostained medullary thyroid carcinoma specimens and to correlate it with clinical and pathologic prognostic factors. Metalloproteinases, enzymes related to the degradation of the extracellular matrix, take part in carcinogenesis and have been associated with the prognosis of neoplasias. Nevertheless, medullary carcinoma is rarely considered in research analysis. Researchers tend to favor the ratio of enzymes to their inhibitors over the absolute concentrations of these enzymes. Design: Retrospective study of surgical samples. Setting: Head and Neck Surgery and Endocrinology Departments, Universidade de Sao Paulo Medical School Hospital. Patients: Surgical specimens from 33 patients who had been observed for a mean of 76.8 months (range, 4-201 months) were immunohistochemically stained for MMP-2 and TIMP-2. Only patients whose clinical and pathologic data were complete and whose specimens were preserved were included in the study. Main Outcome Measures: The ratio between the expressions of MMP-2 and TIMP-2 was based on a staining index (immunostaining extent and intensity) of each of the markers. Results: Proportionally large expressions of TIMP-2 over MMP-2 correlated with low occurrences of positive findings on initial cervical examination for the presence of thyroid nodules and/or lymphadenopathy (P = .02) and cervical lymph node metastases (P < .001), conditions correlated with prognosis. A correlation with cure at the end of follow-up (P = .01) was also observed. (P < .05 was considered statistically significant.) Conclusion: The ratio of MMP-2 to TIMP-2 expression is an additional and novel prognostic predictor of the outcome of medullary carcinoma treated surgically.

Effects of Optimal Medical Treatment With or Without Coronary Revascularization on Angina and Subsequent Revascularizations in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and Stable Ischemic Heart Disease

Background-In the Bypass Angioplasty Revascularization Investigation 2 Diabetes (BARI 2D) trial, an initial strategy of coronary revascularization and optimal medical treatment (REV) compared with an initial optimal medical treatment with the option of subsequent revascularization (MED) did not reduce all-cause mortality or the composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, and stroke in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and stable ischemic heart disease. In the same population, we tested whether the REV strategy was superior to the MED strategy in preventing worsening and new angina and subsequent coronary revascularizations. Methods and Results-Among the 2364 men and women (mean age, 62.4 years) with type 2 diabetes mellitus, documented coronary artery disease, and myocardial ischemia, 1191 were randomized to the MED and 1173 to the REV strategy preselected in the percutaneous coronary intervention (796) and coronary artery bypass graft (377) strata. Compared with the MED strategy, the REV strategy at the 3-year follow-up had a lower rate of worsening angina (8% versus 13%; P < 0.001), new angina (37% versus 51%; P = 0.001), and subsequent coronary revascularizations (18% versus 33%; P < 0.001) and a higher rate of angina-free status (66% versus 58%; P = 0.003). The coronary artery bypass graft stratum patients were at higher risk than those in the percutaneous coronary intervention stratum, and had the greatest benefits from REV. Conclusions-In these patients, the REV strategy reduced the occurrence of worsening angina, new angina, and subsequent coronary revascularizations more than the MED strategy. The symptomatic benefits were observed particularly for high-risk patients.

A Bayesian approach to fuzzy hypotheses testing for the estimation of optimal age for vaccination against measles

Fuzzy Bayesian tests were performed to evaluate whether the mother`s seroprevalence and children`s seroconversion to measles vaccine could be considered as ""high"" or ""low"". The results of the tests were aggregated into a fuzzy rule-based model structure, which would allow an expert to influence the model results. The linguistic model was developed considering four input variables. As the model output, we obtain the recommended age-specific vaccine coverage. The inputs of the fuzzy rules are fuzzy sets and the outputs are constant functions, performing the simplest Takagi-Sugeno-Kang model. This fuzzy approach is compared to a classical one, where the classical Bayes test was performed. Although the fuzzy and classical performances were similar, the fuzzy approach was more detailed and revealed important differences. In addition to taking into account subjective information in the form of fuzzy hypotheses it can be intuitively grasped by the decision maker. Finally, we show that the Bayesian test of fuzzy hypotheses is an interesting approach from the theoretical point of view, in the sense that it combines two complementary areas of investigation, normally seen as competitive. (C) 2007 IMACS. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The use of sodium-chloride difference and chloride-sodium ratio as strong ion difference surrogates in the evaluation of metabolic acidosis in critically ill patients

Purpose: Inorganic apparent strong ion difference (SIDai) improves chloride-associated acidosis recognition in dysnatremic patients. We investigated whether the difference between sodium and chloride (Na+-C1-) or the ratio between chloride and sodium (Cl-/Na+) could be used as SIDai surrogates in mixed and dysnatremic patients. Patients and Methods: Two arterial blood samples were collected from 128 patients. Physicochemical analytical approach was used. Correlation, agreement, accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity were measured to examine whether Na(+)-C1(-) and CI(-)/Na(+) could be used instead of SIDai in the diagnosis of acidosis. Results: Na(+)-C1(-) and CF/Na+ were well correlated with SIDai (R = 0.987, P < 0.001 and R = 0.959, P < 0.001, respectively). Bias between Na(+)-C1(-) and SIDai was high (6.384 with a limit of agreement of 4.4638.305 mEq/L). Accuracy values for the identification of SIDai acidosis (<38.9 mEq/L) were 0.989 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.980-0.998) for Na+-C1- and 0.974 (95% CI, 0.959-0.989) for Cr/Na+. Receiver operator characteristic curve showed that values revealing SIDai acidosis were less than 32.5 mEq/L for Nata- and more than 0.764 for C17Na+ with sensitivities of 94.0% and 92.0% and specificities of 97.0% and 90.0%, respectively. Nata- was a reliable S IDai surrogate in dysnatremic patients. Conclusions: Nata- and CI-/Na+ are good tools to disclose S IDai acidosis. In patients with dysnatremia, Nata- is an accurate tool to diagnose SIDai acidosis. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

ELECTROMYOGRAPHIC AMPLITUDE RATIO OF SERRATUS ANTERIOR AND UPPER TRAPEZIUS MUSCLES DURING MODIFIED PUSH-UPS AND BENCH PRESS EXERCISES

Imbalance and weakness of the serratus anterior and upper trapezius force couple have been described in patients with shoulder dysfunction. There is interest in identifying exercises that selectively activate these muscles and including it in rehabilitation protocols. This study aims to verify the UT/SA electromyographic (EMG) amplitude ratio, performed in different upper limb exercises and on two bases of support. Twelve healthy men were tested (average age = 22.8 +/- 3.1 years), and surface EMG was recorded from the upper trapezius and serratus anterior using single differential surface electrodes. Volunteers performed isometric contractions over a stable base of support and on a Swiss ball during the wall push-up (WP), bench press (BP), and push-up (PU) exercises. All SEMG data are reported as a percentage of root mean square or integral of linear envelope from the maximal value obtained in one of three maximal voluntary contractions for each muscle studied. A linear mixed-effect model was performed to compare UT/SA ratio values. The WP, BP, and PU exercises showed UT/SA ratio mean +/- SD values of 0.69 +/- 0.72, 0.14 +/- 0.12, and 0.39 +/- 0.37 for stable surfaces, respectively, whereas for unstable surfaces, the values were 0.73 +/- 0.67, 0.43 +/- 0.39, and 0.32 +/- 0.30. The results demonstrate that UT/SA ratio was influenced by the exercises and by the upper limb base of support. The practical application is to show that BP on a stable surface is the exercise preferred over WP and PU on either surfaces for serratus anterior muscle training in patients with imbalance between the UT/SA force couple or serratus anterior weakness.