Using non-homogeneous Poisson models with multiple change-points to estimate the number of ozone exceedances in Mexico City

In this paper, we consider some non-homogeneous Poisson models to estimate the probability that an air quality standard is exceeded a given number of times in a time interval of interest. We assume that the number of exceedances occurs according to a non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP). This Poisson process has rate function lambda(t), t >= 0, which depends on some parameters that must be estimated. We take into account two cases of rate functions: the Weibull and the Goel-Okumoto. We consider models with and without change-points. When the presence of change-points is assumed, we may have the presence of either one, two or three change-points, depending of the data set. The parameters of the rate functions are estimated using a Gibbs sampling algorithm. Results are applied to ozone data provided by the Mexico City monitoring network. In a first instance, we assume that there are no change-points present. Depending on the adjustment of the model, we assume the presence of either one, two or three change-points. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Estimating the number of ozone peaks in Mexico City using a non-homogeneous Poisson model

In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating the number of times an air quality standard is exceeded in a given period of time. A non-homogeneous Poisson model is proposed to analyse this issue. The rate at which the Poisson events occur is given by a rate function lambda(t), t >= 0. This rate function also depends on some parameters that need to be estimated. Two forms of lambda(t), t >= 0 are considered. One of them is of the Weibull form and the other is of the exponentiated-Weibull form. The parameters estimation is made using a Bayesian formulation based on the Gibbs sampling algorithm. The assignation of the prior distributions for the parameters is made in two stages. In the first stage, non-informative prior distributions are considered. Using the information provided by the first stage, more informative prior distributions are used in the second one. The theoretical development is applied to data provided by the monitoring network of Mexico City. The rate function that best fit the data varies according to the region of the city and/or threshold that is considered. In some cases the best fit is the Weibull form and in other cases the best option is the exponentiated-Weibull. Copyright (C) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

An unstructured CVFEM and moving interface algorithm for non-Newtonian Hele-Shaw flows in injection molding

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to develop a novel unstructured simulation approach for injection molding processes described by the Hele-Shaw model. Design/methodology/approach - The scheme involves dual dynamic meshes with active and inactive cells determined from an initial background pointset. The quasi-static pressure solution in each timestep for this evolving unstructured mesh system is approximated using a control volume finite element method formulation coupled to a corresponding modified volume of fluid method. The flow is considered to be isothermal and non-Newtonian. Findings - Supporting numerical tests and performance studies for polystyrene described by Carreau, Cross, Ellis and Power-law fluid models are conducted. Results for the present method are shown to be comparable to those from other methods for both Newtonian fluid and polystyrene fluid injected in different mold geometries. Research limitations/implications - With respect to the methodology, the background pointset infers a mesh that is dynamically reconstructed here, and there are a number of efficiency issues and improvements that would be relevant to industrial applications. For instance, one can use the pointset to construct special bases and invoke a so-called ""meshless"" scheme using the basis. This would require some interesting strategies to deal with the dynamic point enrichment of the moving front that could benefit from the present front treatment strategy. There are also issues related to mass conservation and fill-time errors that might be addressed by introducing suitable projections. The general question of ""rate of convergence"" of these schemes requires analysis. Numerical results here suggest first-order accuracy and are consistent with the approximations made, but theoretical results are not available yet for these methods. Originality/value - This novel unstructured simulation approach involves dual meshes with active and inactive cells determined from an initial background pointset: local active dual patches are constructed ""on-the-fly"" for each ""active point"" to form a dynamic virtual mesh of active elements that evolves with the moving interface.

Integrable maps with non-trivial topology: application to divertor configurations

We explore a method for constructing two-dimensional area-preserving, integrable maps associated with Hamiltonian systems, with a given set of fixed points and given invariant curves. The method is used to find an integrable Poincare map for the field lines in a large aspect ratio tokamak with a poloidal single-null divertor. The divertor field is a superposition of a magnetohydrodynamic equilibrium with an arbitrarily chosen safety factor profile, with a wire carrying an electric current to create an X-point. This integrable map is perturbed by an impulsive perturbation that describes non-axisymmetric magnetic resonances at the plasma edge. The non-integrable perturbed map is applied to study the structure of the open field lines in the scrape-off layer, reproducing the main transport features obtained by integrating numerically the magnetic field line equations, such as the connection lengths and magnetic footprints on the divertor plate.

Aging and stationary properties of non-equilibrium symmetrical three-state models

We consider a non-equilibrium three-state model whose dynamics is Markovian and displays the same symmetry as the three-state Potts model, i.e. the transition rates are invariant under the cyclic permutation of the states. Unlike the Potts model, detailed balance is, in general, not satisfied. The aging and the stationary properties of the model defined on a square lattice are obtained by means of large-scale Monte Carlo simulations. We show that the phase diagram presents a critical line, belonging to the three-state Potts universality class, that ends at a point whose universality class is that of the Voter model. Aging is considered on the critical line, at the Voter point and in the ferromagnetic phase.

Non-Fermi-liquid behavior in UCu(4+x)Al(8-x) compounds

We report on experimental studies of the Kondo physics and the development of non-Fermi-liquid scaling in UCu(4+x)Al(8-x) family. We studied 7 different compounds with compositions between x = 0 and 2. We measured electrical transport (down to 65 mK) and thermoelectric power (down to 1.8 K) as a function of temperature, hydrostatic pressure, and/or magnetic field. Compounds with Cu content below x = 1.25 exhibit long-range antiferromagnetic order at low temperatures. Magnetic order is suppressed with increasing Cu content and our data indicate a possible quantum critical point at x(cr) approximate to 1.15. For compounds with higher Cu content, non-Fermi-liquid behavior is observed. Non-Fermi-liquid scaling is inferred from electrical resistivity results for the x = 1.25 and 1.5 compounds. For compounds with even higher Cu content, a sharp kink occurs in the resistivity data at low temperatures, and this may be indicative of another quantum critical point that occurs at higher Cu compositions. For the magnetically ordered compounds, hydrostatic pressure is found to increase the Neel temperature, which can be understood in terms of the Kondo physics. For the non-magnetic compounds, application of a magnetic field promotes a tendency toward Fermi-liquid behavior. Thermoelectric power was analyzed using a two-band Lorentzian model, and the results indicate one fairly narrow band (10 meV and below) and a second broad band (around hundred meV). The results imply that there are two relevant energy scales that need to be considered for the physics in this family of compounds. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Long-term follow-up of topical 5-aminolaevulinic acid photodynamic therapy diode laser single session for non-melanoma skin cancer

Photodynamic therapy (PDT) is based on the association of a light source and tight sensitive agents in order to cause the selective death of tumor cells. To evaluate topical 5-aminolaevulinic acid (5-ALA) and diode laser photodynamic single session therapy single session for non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC), a long-term follow-up was performed. Nineteen Bowen`s disease (BD) and 15 basal cell. carcinoma (BCC) lesions were submitted to 6-h topical and occlusive 20% 5-ALA plus DMSO and EDTA, and later were exposed to 630 nm diode laser, 100 or 300 J cm(-2) dose. At 3 months tumor-free rate was 91.2% (31/34) whereas at 60 months, 57.7% (15/26), slightly higher in BCC (63.6%; 7/11). The relation between the reduction of the clinical response and the increase of tumor dimension observed at 18 months was lost at 60 months. The sBCC recurrence was earlier compared to the nBCC one. ALA-PDT offered important advantages: it is minimally invasive, an option for patients under risk of surgical complications; clinical feasibility; treatment of multiple lesions in only one session or lesions in poor heating sites and superior esthetical results. However, the recurrence rate increase after ALA-PDT diode laser single session can be observed at tong-term follow-up, and the repetitive sessions, an additional. advantage of the method, is strongly recommended. The clinical response and recurrence time seem to be related to the laser light dose and NMSC types/sub-types, thickness and dimension, which must be considered for the choice of the ALA-PDT. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Insights into the dynamics and sources of atmospheric lead and particulate matter in Sao Paulo, Brazil, from high temporal resolution sampling

We present the first results of a study investigating the processes that control concentrations and sources of Pb and particulate matter in the atmosphere of Sao Paulo City Brazil Aerosols were collected with high temporal resolution (3 hours) during a four-day period in July 2005 The highest Pb concentrations measured coincided with large fireworks during celebration events and associated to high traffic occurrence Our high-resolution data highlights the impact that a singular transient event can have on air quality even in a megacity Under meteorological conditions non-conducive to pollutant dispersion Pb and particulate matter concentrations accumulated during the night leading to the highest concentrations in aerosols collected early in the morning of the following day The stable isotopes of Pb suggest that emissions from traffic remain an Important source of Pb in Sao Paulo City due to the large traffic fleet despite low Pb concentrations in fuels (C) 2010 Elsevier BV All rights reserved

Alkaline magmatism in the Amambay area, NE Paraguay: The Cerro Sarambi complex

The Early Cretaceous alkaline magmatism in the northeastern region of Paraguay (Amambay Province) is represented by stocks, plugs, dikes, and dike swarms emplaced into Carboniferous to Triassic-Jurassic sediments and Precambrian rocks. This magmatism is tectonically related to the Ponta Pora Arch, a NE-trending structural feature, and has the Cerro Sarambi and Cerro Chiriguelo carbonatite complexes as its most significant expressions. Other alkaline occurrences found in the area are the Cerro Guazu and the small bodies of Cerro Apua, Arroyo Gasory, Cerro Jhu, Cerro Tayay, and Cerro Teyu. The alkaline rocks comprise ultramafic-mafic, syenitic, and carbonatitic petrographic associations in addition to lithologies of variable composition and texture occurring as dikes; fenites are described in both carbonatite complexes. Alkali feldspar and clinopyroxene, ranging from diopside to aegirine, are the most abundant minerals, with feldspathoids (nepheline, analcime), biotite, and subordinate Ti-rich garnet; minor constituents are Fe-Ti oxides and cancrinite as the main alteration product from nepheline. Chemically, the Amambay silicate rocks are potassic to highly potassic and have miaskitic affinity, with the non-cumulate intrusive types concentrated mainly in the saturated to undersaturated areas in silica syenitic fields. Fine-grained rocks are also of syenitic affiliation or represent more mafic varieties. The carbonatitic rocks consist dominantly of calciocarbonatites. Variation diagrams plotting major and trace elements vs. SiO(2) concentration for the Cerro Sarambi rocks show positive correlations for Al(2)O(3), K(2)O, and Rb, and negative ones for TiO(2), MgO, Fe(2)O(3), CaO, P(2)O(5), and Sr, indicating that fractional crystallization played an important role in the formation of the complex. Incompatible elements normalized to primitive mantle display positive spikes for Rb, La, Pb, Sr, and Sm, and negative for Nb-Ta, P, and Ti, as these negative anomalies are considerably more pronounced in the carbonatites. Chondrite-normalized REE patterns point to the high concentration of these elements and to the strong LRE/HRE fractionation. The Amambay rocks are highly enriched in radiogenic Sr and have T(DM) model ages that vary from 1.6 to 1.1 Ga. suggesting a mantle source enriched in incompatible elements by metasomatic events in Paleo-Mesoproterozoic times. Data are consistent with the derivation of the Cerro Sarambi rocks from a parental magma of lamprophyric (minette) composition and suggest an origin by liquid immiscibility processes for the carbonatites. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Newton`s iterates can converge to non-stationary points

In this note we discuss the convergence of Newton`s method for minimization. We present examples in which the Newton iterates satisfy the Wolfe conditions and the Hessian is positive definite at each step and yet the iterates converge to a non-stationary point. These examples answer a question posed by Fletcher in his 1987 book Practical methods of optimization.

Thymine hydroperoxide as a potential source of singlet molecular oxygen in DNA

The decomposition of organic hydroperoxides into peroxyl radicals is a potential source of singlet molecular oxygen [O(2) ((1)Delta(g))] in biological systems. This study shows that 5-(hydroperoxymethyl)uracil (5-HPMU), a thymine hydroperoxide within DNA, reacts with metal ions or HOCl, generating O(2) ((1)Delta(g)). Spectroscopic evidence for generation of O(2) ((1)Delta(g)) was obtained by measuring (i) the bimolecular decay, (ii) the monomolecular decay, and (iii) the observation of D(2)O enhancement of O(2) ((1)Delta(g)) production and the quenching effect of NaN(3). Moreover, the presence of O(2) ((1)Delta(g)) was unequivocally demonstrated by the direct characterization of the near-infrared light emission. For the sake of comparison, O(2) ((1)Delta(g)) derived from the H(2)O(2)/HOCl system and from the thermolysis of the N,N`-di(2,3-dihydroxypropyl)-1,4-naphthalenedipropanamide endoperoxide was also monitored. More evidence of O(2) ((1)Delta(g)) generation was obtained by chemical trapping of O(2) ((1)Delta(g)) with anthracene-9,10-divinylsulfonate (AVS) and detection of the specific AVS endoperoxide by HPLC/MS/MS. The detection by HPLC/MS of 5-(hydroxymethyl)uracil and 5-formyluracil, two thymine oxidation products generated from the reaction of 5-HPMU and Ce(4+) ions, supports the Russell mechanism. These photoemission properties and chemical trapping clearly demonstrate that the decomposition of 5-HPMU generates O(2) ((1)Delta(g)) by the Russell mechanism and point to the involvement of O(2) ((1)Delta(g)) in thymidine hydroperoxide cytotoxicity. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Short terms effects of air pollution from biomass burning in mucociliary clearance of Brazilian sugarcane cutters

Nasal mucociliary system is the first line of defense of the upper airways and may be affected acutely by exposure to particulate matter (PM) from biomass burning. Several epidemiologic studies have demonstrated a consistent association between levels of air pollution from biomass burning with increases in hospitalization for respiratory diseases and mortality. To determine the acute effects of exposure to particulate matter from biomass burning in nasal mucociliary transport by saccharin transit time (STT) test, we studied thirty-three non-smokers and twelve light smokers sugarcane cutters in two periods: pre-harvest season and 4 h after harvest at the first day after biomass burning. Lung function, exhaled carbon monoxide (CO), nasal symptoms questionnaire and mucociliary clearance (MC) were assessed. Exhaled CO was increased in smokers compared to non-smokers but did not change significantly after harvest. In contrast, SIT was similar between smokers and non-smokers and decreased significantly after harvest in both groups (p < 0.001). Exposure to PM from biomass burning did not influence nasal symptoms. Our results suggest that acute exposure to particulate matter from sugarcane burned affects mucociliary clearance in smokers and non-smokers workers in the absence of symptoms. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.