52 resultados para Model-based optimization


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Overcommitment of development capacity or development resource deficiencies are important problems in new product development (NPD). Existing approaches to development resource planning have largely neglected the issue of resource magnitude required for NPD. This research aims to fill the void by developing a simple higher-level aggregate model based on an intuitive idea: The number of new product families that a firm can effectively undertake is bound by the complexity of its products or systems and the total amount of resources allocated to NPD. This study examines three manufacturing companies to verify the proposed model. The empirical results confirm the study`s initial hypothesis: The more complex the product family, the smaller the number of product families that are launched per unit of revenue. Several suggestions and implications for managing NPD resources are discussed, such as how this study`s model can establish an upper limit for the capacity to develop and launch new product families.

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Almeida E. S. de, Haddad E. A. and Hewings G. J. D. Transport-regional equity issue revisited, Regional Studies. The objective of this paper is to analyse the relationship between transport and regional equity in Minas Gerais, Brazil. Furthermore, the existence of a trade-off between economic performance and regional equity is investigated as well. To do so, the paper develops a spatial computable general equilibrium model based on Brocker and Schneider`s approach of 2002 to implement comparative static analysis, explicitly incorporating iceberg transportation costs. Four activities are modelled, namely production, final demand, transportation and exports. Two production factors are assumed: labour and other factors. The model has 12 domestic regions and three external regions. Four counterfactual experiments are developed based on decreases in transportation costs due to a `distance shortening`. The main findings indicate that if the transport infrastructure improvement is focused only among poor regions, the promotion of regional equity is insignificant. If the transport infrastructure improvement links are concentrated among rich regions, there is an increase in regional income inequalities. However, if the improvements are targeted to the roads linking poor regions and rich ones, there is greater promotion of regional equity. The same result will occur when improvements are made to all road links of the state. [image omitted] Almeida E. S. de, Haddad E. A. et Hewings G. J. D. La question du rapport entre le transport et l`equilibre regional vue sous un jour nouveau, Regional Studies. Cet article cherche a analyser le rapport entre le transport et l`equilibre regional en Minas Gerais au Bresil. En outre, on examine la presence d`un echange entre la performance economoique et l`equilibre regional. Pour le faire, on construit un modele geographique de l`equilibre general a utiliser sur ordinateur fonde sur l`approche de Brockner et Schneider en 2002 afin de mettre en oeuvre une analyse statique comparative qui comprend explicitement les frais de transport iceberg. On modelise quatre activites, a savoir, la production, la demande finale, le transport et l`exportation. On fait deux suppositions quant aux facteurs de production: la main-d`oevre et d`autres facteurs. Le modele embrasse douze regions internes et trois regions externes. On fait quatre experiences paradoxales fondees sur la baisse des frais de transport due a une `reduction des distances`. Les principaux resultats indiquent que si l`amelioration de l`equipement de transport ne porte que sur les regions defavorisees, la promotion de l`equilibre regional s`avere negligeable. Si l`amelioration de l`equipement de transport focalise les regions riches, il s`avere un creusement des ecarts des revenus regionaux. Cependant, si les ameliorations ciblent les routes qui relient les regions defavorisees aux regions riches, il s`avere une plus grande promotion de l`equilibre regional. Il en va de meme pour la situation ou on a apporte des amenagements a toutes les liaisons routieres de l`etat. Modele geographique de l`equilibre general a utiliser sur ordinateur Equilibre regional Peformance economique Frais de transport Almeida E. S. de, Haddad E. A. und Hewings G. J. D. Die Wiederaufnahme der Frage von Verkehrswesen im Verhaltnis zu regionaler Fairness, Regional Studies. Dieser Aufsatz beabsichtigt, die Beziehung zwischen Verkehrswesen und regionaler Fairness in Minas Gerais (Brasilien) zu analysieren und zugleich auch das Vorkommen von Einbussen entweder bei wirtschaftlicher Leistung der regionaler Fairness zu untersuchen. Zu diesem Zwecke wird ein auf dem Ansatz von Brocker und Schneider (2002) aufbauendes raumliches komputables allgemeines Gleichgewichtsmodell entwickelt, um vergleichende statistische Analysen durchzufuhren, wobei verborgene `Eisberg`-Transportkosten ausdrucklich berucksichtigt werden. Es werden vier Unternehmenstatigk eiten aufgefuhrt: Herstellung, Nachfrage, Transportwesen und Exporte, und zwei Produktionsfaktoren vorausgesetzt: Arbeitskrafte und andere Faktoren. Das Modell umfasst zwolf Inlandsregionen und drei externe Regionen. Es werden vier gegensatzliche Experimente entwickelt, die auf einer Abnahme der Transportkosten infolge einer `Verkurzung der Entfernungen` beruhen. Die Hauptbefunde weisen darauf hin, dass die Forderung regionaler Fairness unbedeutend bleibt, wenn die Verbesserungen der Transportinfrastruktur sich nur auf minderbemittelte Regionen konzentrieren; werden die Verbesserungen der Verbindungen der Transportinfrastruktur in wohlhabenden Regionen durchgefuhrt, so nehmen regionale Einkommensunterschiede zu. Wenn die Verbesserungen jedoch auf Strassen abzielen, die wohlhabende Regionen mit weniger bemittelten verbinden, wird regionale Fairness starker gefordert. Das gleiche Ergebnis wird sich einstellen, wenn Verbesserungen an allen Strassenverbindungen des Staates vorgenommen werden. Raumliches, komputables, allgemeines Gleichgewichtsmodell Regionale Fairness Wirtschaftsleistung Transportkosten Almeida E. S. de, Haddad E. A. y Hewings G. J. D. Revisando el tema de la igualdad del transporte en las regiones, Regional Studies. El objetivo de este documento es analizar la relacion entre el transporte y la igualdad regional en Minas Gerais, Brasil. Asimismo investigamos la existencia de una compensacion entre el rendimiento economico y la igualdad regional. Para ello desarrollamos un modelo de equilibrio general computable y espacial basado en el enfoque de Brocker y Schneider en 2002 para hacer un analisis estatico y comparativo, explicitamente incorporando los costes ocultos de transporte. Se modelan cuatro actividades: la produccion, la demanda final, el transporte y las exportaciones. Suponemos que existen dos factores de produccion: mano de obra y otros factores. En este modelo, existen doce regiones internas y tres regiones externas. Desarrollamos cuatro experimentos contrafactuales basados en la disminucion de los costes de transporte debido a una `acortamiento de las distancias`. Los principales resultados indican que si la mejora de la infraestructura del transporte se centra solo entre las regiones mas pobres, el fomento de la igualdad regional es insignificante. Si los enlaces de la mejora de la infraestructura del transporte se concentran en las regiones ricas, aumentan las desigualdades de ingresos regionales. Sin embargo, si se mejoran los enlaces de carreteras entre las regiones pobres y ricas, se fomenta mejor la igualdad regional. El mismo resultado ocurre cuando se mejoran los enlaces de todas las carreteras del estado. Modelo de equilibrio general computable y espacial Igualdad regional Rendimiento economico Costes de transporte.

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This paper uses a fully operational inter-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model implemented for the Brazilian economy, based on previous work by Haddad and Hewings, in order to assess the likely economic effects of road transportation policy changes in Brazil. Among the features embedded in this framework, modelling of external scale economies and transportation costs provides an innovative way of dealing explicitly with theoretical issues related to integrated regional systems. The model is calibrated for 109 regions. The explicit modelling of transportation costs built into the inter-regional CGE model, based on origin-destination flows, which takes into account the spatial structure of the Brazilian economy, creates the capability of integrating the inter-regional CGE model with a geo-coded transportation network model enhancing the potential of the framework in understanding the role of infrastructure on regional development. The transportation model used is the so-called Highway Development and Management, developed by the World Bank, implemented using the software TransCAD. Further extensions of the current model specification for integrating other features of transport planning in a continental industrialising country like Brazil are discussed, with the goal of building a bridge between conventional transport planning practices and the innovative use of CGE models. In order to illustrate the analytical power of the integrated system, the authors present a set of simulations, which evaluate the ex ante economic impacts of physical/qualitative changes in the Brazilian road network (for example, a highway improvement), in accordance with recent policy developments in Brazil. Rather than providing a critical evaluation of this debate, they intend to emphasise the likely structural impacts of such policies. They expect that the results will reinforce the need to better specifying spatial interactions in inter-regional CGE models.

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We describe administrative reform involving management innovation undertaken at the Superior Tribunal of Justice, Brazil`s highest appellate court for infra-constitutional cases. The innovation is the introduction of a new management model based on strategic planning and a process management approach to work processes. Introduction of the new model has been supported by the use of information technology and project management techniques. Qualitative methods were used for data collection and analysis. Findings reveal that the innovation is contributing to the development of a systemic overview of key processes, reducing the fragmenting effects of the division of work activities within the Tribunal. At least three new organizational routines or capabilities have been developed as a result of the innovation studied: Electronic Court Management, Project Management, and Process Management. The paper contributes to knowledge about court management, a field that has received little research attention in the public administration literature.

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With the aim to compare the cost of treatment for rheumatoid arthritis therapy with desease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDS) for a 48-month period, were studied five different treatment stage based on clinical protocols recommended by the Brazilian Society of Rheumatology, and then five therapy cycles. The analytical model based on the Markov Analysis, considered chaces for the patient continue in some stages or change between them according with a positive effect on outcomes. Only direct costs were comprised in the analyzed data, like drugs, materials and tests used for monitoring these patients. The results of the model show that the stage in with metotrexato drug is used like monotherapy was cost-effective (R$ 113,900,00 for patient during 48 months), followed by refractory patient (R$ 1,554,483,43), those that use therapy triplicate followed by infleximable drug (R$ 1, 701, 286.76), the metotrexato intolearant patient (R$ 2,629,919,14), and final the result from that use metotrexato and infliximable in the beginning (R$ 9,292,879,31). The sensitivity analysis confirm this results, when alternate the efficacy of metotrexato and infliximabe.

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A previous mathematical model explaining dengue in Singapore predicted a reasonable outbreak of about 6500 cases for 2006 and a very mild outbreak with about 2000 cases for 2007. However, only 3051 cases were reported in 2006 while more than 7800 were reported in the first 44 weeks of 2007. We hypothesized that the combination of haze with other local sources of particulate matter had a significant impact on mosquito life expectancy, significantly increasing their mortality rate. To test the hypothesis a mathematical model based on the reproduction number of dengue fever and aimed at comparing the impact of several possible alternative control strategies was proposed. This model also aimed at contributing to the understanding of the causes of dengue resurgence in Singapore in the last decade. The model`s simulation demonstrated that an increase in mosquito mortality in 2006 and either a reduction in mortality or an increase in the carrying capacity of mosquitoes in 2007 explained the patterned observed in Singapore. Based on the model`s simulation we concluded that the fewer than expected number of dengue cases in Singapore in 2006 was caused by an increase in mosquito mortality due to the disproportionate haze affecting the country that year and that particularly favourable environmental conditions in 2007 propitiated mosquitoes with a lower mortality rate, which explains the greater than expected number of dengue cases in 2007. Whether our hypothesis is plausible or not should be debated further.

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The superior cervical ganglion (SCG) in mammals varies in structure according to developmental age, body size, gender, lateral asymmetry, the size and nuclear content of neurons and the complexity and synaptic coverage of their dendritic trees. In small and medium-sized mammals, neuron number and size increase from birth to adulthood and, in phylogenetic studies, vary with body size. However, recent studies on larger animals suggest that body weight does not, in general, accurately predict neuron number. We have applied design-based stereological tools at the light-microscopic level to assess the volumetric composition of ganglia and to estimate the numbers and sizes of neurons in SCGs from rats, capybaras and horses. Using transmission electron microscopy, we have obtained design-based estimates of the surface coverage of dendrites by postsynaptic apposition zones and model-based estimates of the numbers and sizes of synaptophysin-labelled axo-dendritic synaptic disks. Linear regression analysis of log-transformed data has been undertaken in order to establish the nature of the relationships between numbers and SCG volume (V(scg)). For SCGs (five per species), the allometric relationship for neuron number (N) is N=35,067xV (scg) (0.781) and that for synapses is N=20,095,000xV (scg) (1.328) , the former being a good predictor and the latter a poor predictor of synapse number. Our findings thus reveal the nature of SCG growth in terms of its main ingredients (neurons, neuropil, blood vessels) and show that larger mammals have SCG neurons exhibiting more complex arborizations and greater numbers of axo-dendritic synapses.