A hybrid commodity price-forecasting model applied to the sugar-alcohol sector

Accurate price forecasting for agricultural commodities can have significant decision-making implications for suppliers, especially those of biofuels, where the agriculture and energy sectors intersect. Environmental pressures and high oil prices affect demand for biofuels and have reignited the discussion about effects on food prices. Suppliers in the sugar-alcohol sector need to decide the ideal proportion of ethanol and sugar to optimise their financial strategy. Prices can be affected by exogenous factors, such as exchange rates and interest rates, as well as non-observable variables like the convenience yield, which is related to supply shortages. The literature generally uses two approaches: artificial neural networks (ANNs), which are recognised as being in the forefront of exogenous-variable analysis, and stochastic models such as the Kalman filter, which is able to account for non-observable variables. This article proposes a hybrid model for forecasting the prices of agricultural commodities that is built upon both approaches and is applied to forecast the price of sugar. The Kalman filter considers the structure of the stochastic process that describes the evolution of prices. Neural networks allow variables that can impact asset prices in an indirect, nonlinear way, what cannot be incorporated easily into traditional econometric models.

Multiple synchronous states in static delay-free mutually connected PLL networks

In many engineering applications, the time coordination of geographically separated events is of fundamental importance, as in digital telecommunications and integrated digital circuits. Mutually connected (MC) networks are very good candidates for some new types of application, such as wireless sensor networks. This paper presents a study on the behavior of MC networks of digital phase-locked loops (DPLLs). Analytical results are derived showing that, even for static networks without delays, different synchronous states may exist for the network. An upper bound for the number of such states is also presented. Numerical simulations are used to show the following results: (i) the synchronization precision in MC DPLLs networks; (ii) the existence of synchronous states for the network does not guarantee its achievement and (iii) different synchronous states may be achieved for different initial conditions. These results are important in the neural computation context. as in this case, each synchronous state may be associated to a different analog memory information. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Supercritical steam cycles and biomass integrated gasification combined cycles for sugarcane mills

Back in 1970s and 1980s, cogeneration plants in sugarcane mills were primarily designed to consume all bagasse, and produce steam and electricity to the process. The plants used medium pressure steam boilers (21 bar and 300 degrees C) and backpressure steam turbines. Some plants needed also an additional fuel, as the boilers were very inefficient. In those times, sugarcane bagasse did not have an economic value, and it was considered a problem by most mills. During the 1990s and the beginning of the 2000s, sugarcane industry faced an open market perspective, thus, there was a great necessity to reduce costs in the production processes. In addition, the economic value of by-products (bagasse, molasses, etc.) increased, and there was a possibility of selling electricity to the grid. This new scenario led to a search for more advanced cogeneration systems, based mainly on higher steam parameters (40-80 bar and 400-500 degrees C). In the future, some authors suggest that biomass integrated gasification combined cycles are the best alternative to cogeneration plants in sugarcane mills. These systems might attain 35-40% efficiency for the power conversion. However, supercritical steam cycles might also attain these efficiency values, what makes them an alternative to gasification-based systems. This paper presents a comparative thermoeconomic study of these systems for sugarcane mills. The configurations studied are based on real systems that could be adapted to biomass use. Different steam consumptions in the process are considered, in order to better integrate these configurations in the mill. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Inverse aerodynamic design applications using the MGM hybrid formulation

The well-known modified Garabedian-Mcfadden (MGM) method is an attractive alternative for aerodynamic inverse design, for its simplicity and effectiveness (P. Garabedian and G. Mcfadden, Design of supercritical swept wings, AIAA J. 20(3) (1982), 289-291; J.B. Malone, J. Vadyak, and L.N. Sankar, Inverse aerodynamic design method for aircraft components, J. Aircraft 24(2) (1987), 8-9; Santos, A hybrid optimization method for aerodynamic design of lifting surfaces, PhD Thesis, Georgia Institute of Technology, 1993). Owing to these characteristics, the method has been the subject of several authors over the years (G.S. Dulikravich and D.P. Baker, Aerodynamic shape inverse design using a Fourier series method, in AIAA paper 99-0185, AIAA Aerospace Sciences Meeting, Reno, NV, January 1999; D.H. Silva and L.N. Sankar, An inverse method for the design of transonic wings, in 1992 Aerospace Design Conference, No. 92-1025 in proceedings, AIAA, Irvine, CA, February 1992, 1-11; W. Bartelheimer, An Improved Integral Equation Method for the Design of Transonic Airfoils and Wings, AIAA Inc., 1995). More recently, a hybrid formulation and a multi-point algorithm were developed on the basis of the original MGM. This article discusses applications of those latest developments for airfoil and wing design. The test cases focus on wing-body aerodynamic interference and shock wave removal applications. The DLR-F6 geometry is picked as the baseline for the analysis.

Adoption of integrated production of peach system in Parana State

The success in the adoption of peach integrated production (IP) was evaluated in small orchards of the Parana State. The importance of specific technical accompaniment; points of strangulating in adoption of technology and the classification of the areas to IP conformity were evaluated. The seasons 2005/2006 (without IP orientation) and 2006/2007 (with IP orientation) were compared considering 20 producers who were oriented monthly to attend the minimum requisites. The incidence of peach rust (Tranzschelia discolor) and of brown rot (Monilinia fructicola) in full bloom was evaluated in 2006/2007 and 2007/2008 seasons, as biological parameters to accompany the efficiency of system adoption. After the technical accompaniment in 2007/2008 season, the software APOIA-Novo Rural-PI (APOIA-PI) was applied to measure the conformity to IP in peach orchards. The conformity index of each orchard was compared to the minimum requisite to classify as IP (0.7). The major difficulties in register of field book were: pests monitoring; collect of climate data and the harvest evaluation. The technical accompaniment increased in 60% the conformity in use of field book. In 2007/2008 season, the brown rot incidence increased in some areas, caused by not following IP recommendations. The inadequate management caused the increment in pathogen inoculum, promoting the disease development in peach orchards. The APOIA-PI classified two orchards as good agricultural practices (GAP) (0.7 <= conformity index >= 0.4), two as integrated production (IP) (>= 0.7) and the other orchards had conformity index lower than 0.4.

Inheritance of resistance to Puccinia psidii G. Winter in a eucalyptus interspecific hybrid progeny evaluated under conditions of natural infection

Inheritance of resistance to Puccinia psidii G. Winter in a eucalyptus interspecific hybrid progeny evaluated under conditions of natural infection Rust caused by the fungus Puccinia psidii is currently the most important disease of eucalyptus. It is widely disseminated in Brazil, and causes serious damage in nurseries and plantation areas. The identification of resistant germplasm along with knowledge of the genetic basis of resistance heredity are the first requirements for the success of breeding programs aiming to develop resistant varieties. Earlier studies carried out under controlled conditions suggested a monogenic control as well as the participation of at least two genes promoting resistance to rust. The goal of this study was to evaluate the resistance to P. psidii under field conditions in fourteen progenies from controlled crosses and self-crosses among four hybrid clones of Eucalyptus grandis Hill ex Maiden x Eucalyptus urophylla ST Blake that contrast for resistance to the fungus. Results indicated that resistance could be explained by one locus with main effects and at least three different alleles. However, loci with minor effects may influence the resistance, since variation on severity classes was observed. Differences in segregation of resistance between reciprocal crosses were not observed, indicating absence of cytoplasmic effects.

An integrated molecular map of yellow passion fruit based on simultaneous maximum-likelihood estimation of linkage and linkage phases

The development of genetic maps for auto-incompatible species, such as the yellow passion fruit (Passiflora edulis Sims f.flavicarpa Deg.) is restricted due to the unfeasibility of obtaining traditional mapping populations based on inbred lines. For this reason, yellow passion fruit linkage maps were generally constructed using a strategy known as two-way pseudo-testeross, based on monoparental dominant markers segregating in a 1:1 fashion. Due to the lack of information from these markers in one of the parents, two individual (parental) maps were obtained. However, integration of these maps is essential, and biparental markers can be used for such an operation. The objective of our study was to construct an integrated molecular map for a full-sib population of yellow passion fruit combining different loci configuration generated from amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLPs) and microsatellite markers and using a novel approach based on simultaneous maximum-likelihood estimation of linkage and linkage phases, specially designed for outcrossing species. Of the total number of loci, approximate to 76%, 21%, 0.7%, and 2.3% did segregate in 1:1, 3:1, 1:2:1, and 1:1:1:1 ratios, respectively. Ten linkage groups (LGs) were established with a logarithm of the odds (LOD) score >= 5.0 assuming a recombination fraction : <= 0.35. On average, 24 markers were assigned per LG, representing a total map length of 1687 cM, with a marker density of 6.9 cM. No markers were placed as accessories on the map as was done with previously constructed individual maps.

Water use and crop coefficient for hybrid DKB 390

Water use and crop coefficient for hybrid DKB 390. This work aims to characterize the water use of maize hybrid DKB 390 under suitable conditions of irrigation for both sufficient and below-optimal situations of nitrogen supply. Crop coefficient values for different stages are also presented as a result, in order to provide the basis for crop water budget and management throughout the cycle. A field experiment was carried Out during the main season, in which biomass, soil moisture, leaf area, climate data and light transmittance were evaluated. These have allowed deriving water balance, use and efficiency. The mentioned genotype requires around 600 nun for high yield targets, being less efficient when led under below-optimal nitrogen fertilization.

Deciphering the weathering processes using environmental mineralogy and geochemistry: Towards an integrated model of laterite and podzol genesis in the Upper Amazon Basin

This article reports major results from collaborative research between France and Brazil on soil and water systems, carried out in the Upper Amazon Basin. It reveals the weathering processes acting in the partly inundated, low elevation plateaus of the Basin, mostly covered by evergreen forest. Our findings are based on geochemical data and mineral spectroscopy that probe the crystal chemistry of Fe and Al in mineral phases (mainly kaolinite, Al- and Fe-(hydr)oxides) of tropical soils (laterites). These techniques reveal crystal alterations in mineral populations of different ages and changes of metal speciation associated with mineral or organic phases. These results provide an integrated model of soil formation and changes (from laterites to podzols) in distinct hydrological compartments of the Amazon landscapes and under altered water regimes. (C) 2010 Academie des sciences. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Synthesis and characterization of ternary hybrid material based on poly-o-methoxyaniline and poly(ethylene oxide) in mesostructured V(2)O(5)

New hybrid composites based on mesostructured V(2)O(5) containing intercalated poly(ethylene oxide), poly-o-methoxyaniline and poly(ethylene oxide)/poly-o-methoxyaniline were prepared. The results suggest that the polymers were intercalated into the layers of the mesostructured V(2)O(5). Electrochemical studies showed that the presence of both polymers in the mesostructured V(2)O(5) (ternary hybrid) leads to an increase in total charge and stability after several cycles compared with binary hybrid composites. This fact makes this material a potential component as cathode for lithium ion intercalation and further, a promising candidate for applications in batteries.

Calcium Carbonate Particle Growth Depending on Coupling among Adjacent Layers in Hybrid LB/LbL Films

There are practical and academic situations that justify the study of calcium carbonate crystallization and especially of systems that are associated with organic matrices and a confined medium. Despite the fact that many different matrices have been studied, the use of well-behaved, thin organic films may provide new knowledge about this system. In this work, we have studied the growth of calcium carbonate particles on well-defined organic matrices that were formed by layer-by-layer (LbL) polyelectrolyte films deposited on phospholipid Langmuir-Blodgett films (LB). We were able to change the surface electrical charge density of the LB films by changing the proportions of a negatively charged lipid, the sodium salt of dimyristoyl-sn-glycero-phosphatidyl acid (DMPA), and a zwitterionic lipid. dimyristoyl-sn-glycero-phosphatidylethanolamine (DMPE). This affects the subsequent polyelectrolyte LbL film deposition, which also changes the the nature of the bonding (electrostatic interaction or hydrogen bonding). This approach allowed for the formation of calcium carbonate particles of different final shapes, roughnesses, and sizes. The masses of deposited lipids, polyelectrolytes, and calcium cabonate were quantified by the quartz crystal microbalance technique. The structures of obtained particles were analyzed by scanning electron microscopy.

Cation Transport Coupled to ATP Hydrolysis By the (Na, K)-ATPase AN INTEGRATED, ANIMATED MODEL

An Adobe (R) animation is presented for use in undergraduate Biochemistry courses, illustrating the mechanism of Na(+) and K(+) translocation coupled to ATP hydrolysis by the (Na, K)-ATPase, a P(2c)-type ATPase, or ATP-powered ion pump that actively translocates cations across plasma membranes. The enzyme is also known as an E(1)/E(2)-ATPase as it undergoes conformational changes between the E(1) and E(2) forms during the pumping cycle, altering the affinity and accessibility of the transmembrane ion-binding sites. The animation is based on Horisberger`s scheme that incorporates the most recent significant findings to have improved our understanding of the (Na, K)-ATPase structure function relationship. The movements of the various domains within the (Na, K)-ATPase alpha-subunit illustrate the conformational changes that occur during Na(+) and K(+) translocation across the membrane and emphasize involvement of the actuator, nucleotide, and phosphorylation domains, that is, the ""core engine"" of the pump, with respect to ATP binding, cation transport, and ADP and P(i) release.

Synthesis, characterization and electrochemical behavior of the vanadium pentoxide/cetyl pyridinium chloride hybrid material

In situ and ex situ studies concerning the new hybrid material vanadium pentoxide xerogel in the presence of the cationic surfactant cetyl pyridinium chloride (V(2)O(5)/CPC) are presented. The in situ characterization studies revealed the presence of a lamellar structure for the V(2)O(5)/CPC hybrid material. The intercalation reaction was evidenced on the basis of the increase in the d-spacing as well as the displacement of the infrared bands toward lower energy levels. Electrochemical studies comprising the cyclic voltammetry and the electrochemical impedance spectroscopy techniques showed that the behavior of the hybrid material is considerably influenced by the electrolyte composition. The ion insertion/de-insertion into the V(2)O(5) xerogel structure accompanying the charge transfer process is influenced by the solid-state diffusion process modeled by using the finite-space Warburg element.

Synthesis and electrochemical properties of vanadyl phosphate di-hydrate/polyaniline derivatives hybrid films

Vanadyl phosphate and its hybrid compounds have proven to undergo electrochemical intercalation and de-intercalation of lithium ions, which enables its use as cathode material for Li ion rechargeable batteries. In this context, vanadyl phosphate di-hydrate/polyaniline derivatives hybrid films were synthesized via the exfoliation and reconstruction approach in order to evaluate their potential use as cathode in ion lithium batteries. X-ray diffraction patterns indicate that the lamellar structure of the inorganic matrix is maintained, consistent with the topotactic process. In the scanning electron micrographs, hybrid films exhibit rough surface consisting of warped and cracked crystallites, quite different from vanadyl phosphate di-hydrate square platelets crystallites. Electrochemical evaluation using cyclic voltammetry and charge-discharge galvanostatic techniques shows small differences between the charge and the discharge curves, indicating an irreversibility of the hybrid systems. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.